Rate the presidency as of March 2024

[Steve from Lambeth]

Likely D.

My assessment remains that Donald Trump will win Nevada and Arizona; Joe Biden will win Pennsylvania.

I took Michigan out of the Safe D column into Likely D in mid-February. Nothing I've seen since then suggests that Pete Hoekstra has been a damnable party administrator, so it's staying there.

The Wisconsin Republicans have rolled over as regards the gerrymandering claims. There's also no news from Georgia, where the local Democrats remain strong - and there are a couple of question marks around the Criminal Alien bill there too. This means I'm categorising both of them as Likely D states, and roughly in the same sub-bracket of Likeliness.

All other states are either Safe R or Safe D, with the caveat that there's a small chance that the closer states in either column have a tiny chance of swinging. For my purposes, however, they're safe enough.

Trump is probably a couple of percentage points more likely to win the election than when I made my original assessment at the start of the year. It won't be enough, at least if the election were held today, but I don't foresee any big changes until the conventions at least.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The fundamental problem for Biden is that he is already down and the economy has 8 more months to get worse.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is deemed as a narcissist and has racist tendencies like Reagan, be ause he passed a 2T dollar tax cut and even when he did it we had huge deficits.

Even if Trump isn't racist he has tendencies because he wants to free the insurrection and whites aren't racist as a whole but let's all remember that the country is 66 percent white not blk

That's why I get so mad at Redban at trusting polls not votes, these polls are all MOE, what does MOE mean 5 pts is 300 K votes and high turnout in metro areas can erase any R lead, like polls always overstated R advantage in AZ and NV

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The fundamental problem for Biden is that he is already down and the economy has 8 more months to get worse.

We haven't voted yet he hasn't lost and Reuters has him ahead in Today polls

[oldtimer]

Doesn't look like the SOTU speech changed things.

Another month of Trump leads and 1 less opportunity to change the picture for Biden.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Doesn't look like the SOTU speech changed things.

Another month of Trump leads and 1 less opportunity to change the picture for Biden.

I mean Biden’s leading according to some national polls now, or more than he did before.

I’d say the nominations of Biden and Trump are a bigger factor than the SOTU though

[oldtimer]

Doesn't look like the SOTU speech changed things.

Another month of Trump leads and 1 less opportunity to change the picture for Biden.

I mean Biden’s leading according to some national polls now, or more than he did before.

I’d say the nominations of Biden and Trump are a bigger factor than the SOTU though

No change on average, even the approval/favourables hasn't improved.

It seems we misjudged how good Biden's speech was, and in hindsight that CNN poll saying it was unusually poorly received was a warning.

Voters might have made up their minds already.

[ShadowRocket]

Hard to see it as anything other than Toss-Up/Tilt Trump at the moment.

[dw93]

Pure toss up

[andre1113]

Toss up