New year, how do you rate the election?

[Tekken_Guy]

How do you rate the 2024 election as of today?

[BigVic]

Toss-up

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

if it were held today, with no more campaigning or anything, lean R. But I think the course of the campaign will make things better for Biden, or moreso worse for Trump. I'm saying lean D. I think the map will be 2020, -GA and one of NV,WI,AZ for Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

if it were held today, with no more campaigning or anything, lean R. But I think the course of the campaign will make things better for Biden, or moreso worse for Trump. I'm saying lean D. I think the map will be 2020, -GA and one of NV,WI,AZ for Biden.

Lol it's 65/60 M more Ds in this country than Rs 2012 65)60 M 2016 63)60 M and 20 80/75 M and 22 62/60M it's Lean D because NM usually pick the PVI winners and it only has been wrong 3 times since 1912 when it became a state 1975/2000)2016

Martin Heinrich is on the ballot and Biden is ahead by 8, usually NM, OH, MO are the show me states that's why Kunce and Brown are close because J6 Trump is gonna lose

I am not saying you are wrong about the outcome, I am saying you are wrong and looking at polls, because the state by state polls have Trump only up 2/4 pts and they had them same states Oz, Laxalt, Walker and Masters ahead Trafalgar and they all lost, because we haven't voted yet


Safe D Biden won't lose 303

[oldtimer]

Well I did what I usually do in the Christmas before the election.

Looked at the polls, talked to people over dinner, sized things up, here what I got:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

I came to the conclusion that Biden has almost no hope of winning a 2nd term, the final conclusion came after I spoke to an uber-Liberal relative, he thinks Trump will win due to Biden being crap for a variety of reasons.

Biden's most fanatical supporters are basically saying "yeah, Biden is crap" that's a bad sign, even if fundementals say otherwise.

The polls are crap for Biden, both national and swing states ones, I have never seen such bad polls for an incumbent since Bush Snr.

There is only 1 thing for Biden.
He cratered with Minorities but not Whites, so it's possible for a repetition of 2022, but the polls look a bit worse than 2022 and Presidential Turnout could favour Republicans.

It explains why Democrats try to ban Trump, it's a "Hail Mary".
I also see that as a desperate measure, that betrays that Democrats see no hope of beating Trump in an election.

Also a lot of other "We'll lose anyway, so why not" stuff the Democrats are doing, like the mess in foreign affairs.

It just looks like a dying administration.

If this was a local election I would say the incumbent would lose by loopsided margins.

I could make a reasonable forecast of the P.V. share the day after the Party Conventions.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Well I did what I usually do in the Christmas before the election.

Looked at the polls, talked to people over dinner, sized things up, here what I got:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

I came to the conclusion that Biden has almost no hope of winning a 2nd term, the final conclusion came after I spoke to an uber-Liberal relative, he thinks Trump will win due to Biden being crap for a variety of reasons.

Biden's most fanatical supporters are basically saying "yeah, Biden is crap" that's a bad sign, even if fundementals say otherwise.

The polls are crap for Biden, both national and swing states ones, I have never seen such bad polls for an incumbent since Bush Snr.

There is only 1 thing for Biden.
He cratered with Minorities but not Whites, so it's possible for a repetition of 2022, but the polls look a bit worse than 2022 and Presidential Turnout could favour Republicans.

It explains why Democrats try to ban Trump, it's a "Hail Mary".
I also see that as a desperate measure, that betrays that Democrats see no hope of beating Trump in an election.

Also a lot of other "We'll lose anyway, so why not" stuff the Democrats are doing, like the mess in foreign affairs.

It just looks like a dying administration.

If this was a local election I would say the incumbent would lose by loopsided margins.

I could make a reasonable forecast of the P.V. share the day after the Party Conventions.

I also have an uber liberal relative said "there is no good choice" after enthusiastically voting for Clinton and Biden. I could see them actually not voting this time or voting third party.

It seems strange since there are a lot of people on Twitter and Atlas (ie wbrocks67, Lakshya Jain, Simon Rosenburg, Adam Carlsen, Will Stancil, etc.) that think Biden did a good job, but it's much harder to find people in real life that think the same.

[Pericles]

Given recent history, the safe bet is a very close election either way. Obviously the future can deviate from the past, but it is an even riskier bet to think Trump or Biden can win comfortably.

The dynamic feels a bit like 2016 with both candidates polling at historical levels of unpopularity and potential for a higher than normal third party vote. Obviously Trump won that election, but since there are quite a lot of differences with 2016 and he only won by 0.8%, re-running that dynamic doesn't necessarily create the same result*.

*Hopefully Biden's ratings improve if the economy improves, but otherwise maybe both parties have made a bad mistake in their choice of nominee. We'll never know for sure and know little right now.

[oldtimer]

Well I did what I usually do in the Christmas before the election.

Looked at the polls, talked to people over dinner, sized things up, here what I got:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

I came to the conclusion that Biden has almost no hope of winning a 2nd term, the final conclusion came after I spoke to an uber-Liberal relative, he thinks Trump will win due to Biden being crap for a variety of reasons.

Biden's most fanatical supporters are basically saying "yeah, Biden is crap" that's a bad sign, even if fundementals say otherwise.

The polls are crap for Biden, both national and swing states ones, I have never seen such bad polls for an incumbent since Bush Snr.

There is only 1 thing for Biden.
He cratered with Minorities but not Whites, so it's possible for a repetition of 2022, but the polls look a bit worse than 2022 and Presidential Turnout could favour Republicans.

It explains why Democrats try to ban Trump, it's a "Hail Mary".
I also see that as a desperate measure, that betrays that Democrats see no hope of beating Trump in an election.

Also a lot of other "We'll lose anyway, so why not" stuff the Democrats are doing, like the mess in foreign affairs.

It just looks like a dying administration.

If this was a local election I would say the incumbent would lose by loopsided margins.

I could make a reasonable forecast of the P.V. share the day after the Party Conventions.

I also have an uber liberal relative said "there is no good choice" after enthusiastically voting for Clinton and Biden. I could see them actually not voting this time or voting third party.

It seems strange since there are a lot of people on Twitter and Atlas (ie wbrocks67, Lakshya Jain, Simon Rosenburg, Adam Carlsen, Will Stancil, etc.) that think Biden did a good job, but it's much harder to find people in real life that think the same.

In the local greek elections this year I also saw something similar, fanatical supporters of Mayors conceding that their Incumbent is crap, and they ended up losing and by suprisingly large margins.

That's why I said "if this was a local election", party loyalty or fanatisism will put a floor on Biden's numbers, but anyone who isn't probably won't vote Biden.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Now what the floor is for Biden is unknown.

Is it the 48% that Hillary, Gore, and Kerry got ?
Is it the 45% who don't disapprove ?
Is it the 40% who approve ?
Is it 38% that's the rock bottom for the losing party for 100 years now?
Is it mid 30's that most polls have him, when 3rd parties are included ?
Is it in the teens where strong favourables are ?

3rd party strength is a reflection of how unpopular the big 2 are, if Biden slides just a bit more you could see polls showing a 3rd party candidate running 2nd, at that point you get a Perot 92 situation.

You start asking if a 3rd party candidate can get enough Democrats to beat Trump.

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R unless the Israel-Hamas war ends before then.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Likely D.

At this point in time, and into the conventions at the very least unless a very early October surprise breaks, Trump wins Nevada (based on recent trends) and Arizona (revenge for 2022); loses Pennsylvania (Act 77 and its consequences) and Michigan (inept state party).

Generally speaking, this would leave him needing both Wisconsin and Georgia. Can he make it? I'm not so sure. Georgia Democrats have become ruthlessly well-organised since Abrams and I wouldn't with their newfound advantage in and around Atlanta, I would not be surprised if they kept on winning most important statewide elections for the next couple of decades.

Both major parties in Wisconsin are relatively well-oiled machines, but I'm starting to suspect that there's a bit of a backlash going on against the Republicans now: Evers has been re-elected, accusations of gerrymandering ubiquitous and Democrats are seeing more success in judicial elections too. Trump has much more of a shot in WI, but that's hardly saying much.



In order of most to least likely, the next Republican Presidential candidate to sweep AZ-GA-MI-PA-WI will...

■ ~80%: Live in a Midwestern or Southern state (inc. PA, MD, DE)
■ ~70%: Have a working-class background
■ ~65%: Do so after 2040
■ ~50%: Be seeking re-election
■ ~45%: Win the Presidential election, but not on election night
■ ~30%: Be a Southern Baptist
■ ~25%: Not be a non-Hispanic white
■ ~25%: Call the world's most popular sport "football" rather than "soccer"
■ ~20%: Win in a 45+-state landslide
■ ~20%: Have served as a General in the US Army
■ ~17.5%: Lose the Presidential election
■ ~15%: Repudiate Donald Trump
■ ~15%: Support the federal descheduling of marijuana
■ ~12.5%: Have a reputation for being gaffe-prone
■ ~10%: Be called John
■ ~10%: Promise to continue Donald Trump's legacy
■ ~10%: Win the tipping point state by less than 0.098% (New York 1884)
■ ~8%: Support abortion on demand in the first two trimesters
■ ~7.5%: Have first won elected office as a Democrat before switching parties
■ ~5%: Also win California, but not in a landslide election
■ ~5%: Be an Episcopalian
■ ~3%: Support the Convention on the Rights of the Child
■ ~2%: Promise to end all sanctions on Iran
■ ~1%: Be a direct descendant of George W. Bush
■ ~0.9%: Win the tipping point state by less than 0.009% (Florida 2000)
■ ~0.8%: Support Medicare for All
■ ~0.8%: Be called Lydia
■ ~0.75%: Do so in 2024
■ ~0.65%: Have a Super Bowl ring
■ ~0.5%: Win all five states by more than 10%
■ ~0.3%: Be a Native American
■ ~0.075%: Have a son called John and a daughter called Lydia
■ ~0.025%: Live in Washington DC proper
■ ~0.0001%: Live in Loving County, TX
■ negligible: Not win any other states

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls think this is 2016 and we haven't voted yet putting Trump ahead

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Tossup

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lean D

[Schiff for Senate]

Biden's most fanatical supporters are basically saying "yeah, Biden is crap" that's a bad sign, even if fundementals say otherwise.

The polls are crap for Biden, both national and swing states ones, I have never seen such bad polls for an incumbent since Bush Snr.

There is only 1 thing for Biden.
He cratered with Minorities but not Whites, so it's possible for a repetition of 2022, but the polls look a bit worse than 2022 and Presidential Turnout could favour Republicans.

It explains why Democrats try to ban Trump, it's a "Hail Mary".
I also see that as a desperate measure, that betrays that Democrats see no hope of beating Trump in an election.

Also a lot of other "We'll lose anyway, so why not" stuff the Democrats are doing, like the mess in foreign affairs.

It just looks like a dying administration.

[/spoiler]
If this was a local election I would say the incumbent would lose by loopsided margins.

I could make a reasonable forecast of the P.V. share the day after the Party Conventions.

I can attest to this as well (living in an ultra-D Bay Area county). Plenty of anti-Trump liberals are far from enthusiastic on Biden. Sure, they hate Trump, but I'm not sure that's going to necessarily bring them to the polls to support Biden again this year. They already did it once in 2020, and that was in a highly charged atmosphere.

Since Trump has left the public eye, in fact, the hate against him has melted into tiredness. People are just tired of Trump, but the thing is, they (liberals/Democrats) are tired of Biden, too. Otoh, Biden, as president, is now under constant fire from conservatives.

The point is, the GOP base is far more enthusiastic and fired up than the liberal base is, and that's a fact. There's nobody for the Democrats to villainize - Trump 2024 will not drive up liberal turnout the way Trump 2018 and Trump 2020 did. They need to deal with their own demons - the fact that their leader, the leader of this country, isn't exhibiting (at least not in the view of the public) leadership.

Even if Biden manages to win the independent vote, he may collapse just because of collapsed Democratic turnout.

There are important saving graces for Biden, however, that make this race far from Safe R. There are other proven ways of driving up turnout - Dobbs was a proven winner in normally safe red states like KS. Dobbs prevented the widely-expected red wave. If Democrats harness the power of pro-choice sentiment, it could offset much of Biden's personal unpopularity.

And then there IS also the fact that his opponent is, well, Donald Trump. Trump is going to become a bigger part of the picture once the general election begins and he actually needs to campaign to win votes instead of resting on his laurels (as he has during primary season). The same rhetoric that energized voters back in 2016 has now turned to bluster - it helps him with his core voters, sure, but beyond that, I don't think his message is very appealing. And unlike with the Democrats, the GOP doesn't have one central political issue they can use to their advantage (Russia/Ukraine still works for Democrats, and Biden's stance on Israel/Palestine isn't a political loser - a lot of the hate he's gotten, aside from the usual conservative hack suspects, is from the left, the pro-Palestine faction). Their biggest hope, really, is to bash Biden, but beyond a point that stops being effective, if their own candidate is an obvious load of crap.

On the whole, I have to say I'm utterly lost right now. Ik elsewhere I've forecasted a narrow Biden victory, but laying out all the factors, it's unclear rn what will be prevalent on Election Day, and it remains to be seen just how Trump will conduct his campaign, who he'll pick as running mate, etc., etc.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Biden's most fanatical supporters are basically saying "yeah, Biden is crap" that's a bad sign, even if fundementals say otherwise.

The polls are crap for Biden, both national and swing states ones, I have never seen such bad polls for an incumbent since Bush Snr.

There is only 1 thing for Biden.
He cratered with Minorities but not Whites, so it's possible for a repetition of 2022, but the polls look a bit worse than 2022 and Presidential Turnout could favour Republicans.

It explains why Democrats try to ban Trump, it's a "Hail Mary".
I also see that as a desperate measure, that betrays that Democrats see no hope of beating Trump in an election.

Also a lot of other "We'll lose anyway, so why not" stuff the Democrats are doing, like the mess in foreign affairs.

It just looks like a dying administration.

[/spoiler]
If this was a local election I would say the incumbent would lose by loopsided margins.

I could make a reasonable forecast of the P.V. share the day after the Party Conventions.

I can attest to this as well (living in an ultra-D Bay Area county). Plenty of anti-Trump liberals are far from enthusiastic on Biden. Sure, they hate Trump, but I'm not sure that's going to necessarily bring them to the polls to support Biden again this year. They already did it once in 2020, and that was in a highly charged atmosphere.

Since Trump has left the public eye, in fact, the hate against him has melted into tiredness. People are just tired of Trump, but the thing is, they (liberals/Democrats) are tired of Biden, too. Otoh, Biden, as president, is now under constant fire from conservatives.

The point is, the GOP base is far more enthusiastic and fired up than the liberal base is, and that's a fact. There's nobody for the Democrats to villainize - Trump 2024 will not drive up liberal turnout the way Trump 2018 and Trump 2020 did. They need to deal with their own demons - the fact that their leader, the leader of this country, isn't exhibiting (at least not in the view of the public) leadership.

Even if Biden manages to win the independent vote, he may collapse just because of collapsed Democratic turnout.

There are important saving graces for Biden, however, that make this race far from Safe R. There are other proven ways of driving up turnout - Dobbs was a proven winner in normally safe red states like KS. Dobbs prevented the widely-expected red wave. If Democrats harness the power of pro-choice sentiment, it could offset much of Biden's personal unpopularity.

And then there IS also the fact that his opponent is, well, Donald Trump. Trump is going to become a bigger part of the picture once the general election begins and he actually needs to campaign to win votes instead of resting on his laurels (as he has during primary season). The same rhetoric that energized voters back in 2016 has now turned to bluster - it helps him with his core voters, sure, but beyond that, I don't think his message is very appealing. And unlike with the Democrats, the GOP doesn't have one central political issue they can use to their advantage (Russia/Ukraine still works for Democrats, and Biden's stance on Israel/Palestine isn't a political loser - a lot of the hate he's gotten, aside from the usual conservative hack suspects, is from the left, the pro-Palestine faction). Their biggest hope, really, is to bash Biden, but beyond a point that stops being effective, if their own candidate is an obvious load of crap.

On the whole, I have to say I'm utterly lost right now. Ik elsewhere I've forecasted a narrow Biden victory, but laying out all the factors, it's unclear rn what will be prevalent on Election Day, and it remains to be seen just how Trump will conduct his campaign, who he'll pick as running mate, etc., etc.

I’ve also noticed GOP candidates attack Biden a lot less than Dem candidates attacked Trump 4 years ago.

[Schiff for Senate]

I’ve also noticed GOP candidates attack Biden a lot less than Dem candidates attacked Trump 4 years ago.

Partly because if the GOP hits on Biden, the Democrats (in the right areas) can pull an uno reverso with Donald Trump. Needless to say, this needs to be executed correctly; the same way voters are tired of Donald Trump, they're tired of hearing about him on end, even if it's criticism on J6 or whatever.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I’ve also noticed GOP candidates attack Biden a lot less than Dem candidates attacked Trump 4 years ago.

Partly because if the GOP hits on Biden, the Democrats (in the right areas) can pull an uno reverso with Donald Trump. Needless to say, this needs to be executed correctly; the same way voters are tired of Donald Trump, they're tired of hearing about him on end, even if it's criticism on J6 or whatever.

Yeah pure anti Trump sentiment isn’t gonna do it. Dems need to run on Biden’s record if they want to win. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, they need Biden himself out there as much as possible. His campaign skills are underrated and it could quench a lot of narratives, as well as inform people on what he’s actually gotten done as president. Some random state rep screaming J6 isn’t gonna cut it.

Bold take but I would actually argue that getting Biden himself out there and campaigning is part of the reason Dems did as well as they did in 2022.

[Spectator]

Lean D. My gut. My gut was right the past few cycles until I got hoodwinked by pills in late 2022, so I’m sticking with it.

[President Johnson]

Tossup/Tilt Biden.

[MT Treasurer]

I happen to think the candidate I want to win will win, but that's just coincidence and gut. Gut aside, I can also back up my prediction with reason, logic, data, and analysis, so you can believe me.

[dw93]

Tossup/Tilt Biden.

[Mr. Smith]

I happen to think the candidate no one else thinks will win, will in fact, win. I have no stake in who wins or looses because it's all a joke and I could reason it out with whatever cherrypicked data I want to use, or I could just say "source: trust me bro" and a bunch of other arguments ad-nauseum to back it up...I think I'll use the latter because that's less effort. Either way, the popular choice is doomed!

[Pres Mike]

Biden's most fanatical supporters are basically saying "yeah, Biden is crap" that's a bad sign, even if fundementals say otherwise.

The polls are crap for Biden, both national and swing states ones, I have never seen such bad polls for an incumbent since Bush Snr.

There is only 1 thing for Biden.
He cratered with Minorities but not Whites, so it's possible for a repetition of 2022, but the polls look a bit worse than 2022 and Presidential Turnout could favour Republicans.

It explains why Democrats try to ban Trump, it's a "Hail Mary".
I also see that as a desperate measure, that betrays that Democrats see no hope of beating Trump in an election.

Also a lot of other "We'll lose anyway, so why not" stuff the Democrats are doing, like the mess in foreign affairs.

It just looks like a dying administration.

[/spoiler]
If this was a local election I would say the incumbent would lose by loopsided margins.

I could make a reasonable forecast of the P.V. share the day after the Party Conventions.

(liberals/Democrats) are tired of Biden, too.

I'm sorry, but what Democrats are tired of President Biden? He's still popular with the party and viewed as a competent and honest president who has passed a lot of good bills.

I'm so sick and tired of this narrative. The Democratic Party is quite fond of President Biden. Outside of a few chronically online people who don't want a straight old white man as President and the cable bubble who wants Trump to return for higher ratings, Democrats are eager for Biden to win re-election

[TDAS04]

Tossup.