Fox- NC and MI- Trump +9 and trump +5 (+5 and +2 without rfk)

[Redban]

In almost every single election third party candidates lose support going into election day and then underperform final polling. Johnson polled as high as 12% in 2016, his polling average was 4.8% by election day, with a final result of 3.3%. Stein's final polling average was 2% and she got 1%. Somebody already mentioned Betsy Johnson as a downballot example, and there are plenty of others. It's not just cope to assume that the third party numbers won't be this high. It's what (almost) always happens.

RFK Jr has raised far more money than those candidates, is starting off with greater name recognition than those candidates did, and has an election where a record amount of people don’t like the Democrat vs Republican matchup.  He is more comparable to Perot than Johnson 2016

He only raised $7M last quarter, the same as high profile senate candidates. And he's literally only starting off with high name ID because of his last name, not because of himself. You could put anyone with the last name Kennedy (esp first name Robert) and you would get a very high ID.

And Gary Johnson 2016, the best performing modern third-party candidate other than Perot, raised $12 million the whole campaign. RFK Jr’s $7 million is very high for a third-party/independent

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump won't win NC by 9 pts. It's an outlier that best, trash at worst.

MI seems more realistic, though MI polling in general is unreliable and often produced weird results.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

BOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!

Lol it's all MOE NY 3 was MOE 53/47 6 and we won it

[LAKISYLVANIA]

BOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!

Lol it's all MOE NY 3 was MOE 53/47 6 and we won it

just quote the growing pyramid on election day if you're so confident than it'll be your turn to say

BOOOOOOOM!

if you end up being right.

At the end of the day, all that matter is election day. Sure i believe Trump is ahead by 2 in MI at this moment, but we will talk again in 10 months, it's really pointless to stare at polls now. Like you say, we don't even know what third party candidates will be on the ballot. Anything can happen and you wanna win the election, not the polls. (you may want to win the polls, it doesn't hurt but it doesn't matter).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 250 days away from Eday You Gov GCB is D+2 and ALLRED is tied with Cruz these are bias poll numbers towards Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Maga pollsters