Fox- NC and MI- Trump +9 and trump +5 (+5 and +2 without rfk)

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1757911541205360905


https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1757910216438583803

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump+2 in Michigan is much more realistic than him up by eight.

That said, he has yet to exceed 47% in the state, and that's probably his floor.

[wbrocks67]

Trump+2 in Michigan is much more realistic than him up by eight.

That said, he has yet to exceed 47% in the state, and that's probably his floor.

You mean his ceiling?

And yeah, this is a very realistic MI poll within the MoE. Way more realistic than Trump +8-10 in Michigan.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump+2 in Michigan is much more realistic than him up by eight.

That said, he has yet to exceed 47% in the state, and that's probably his floor.

You mean his ceiling?

And yeah, this is a very realistic MI poll within the MoE. Way more realistic than Trump +8-10 in Michigan.

It might be both his floor and ceiling.

[Redban]

The  poll withRFK, Stein, West is more indicative of what will happen because, in practice, voters will have those options before them. Trump is ahead outside the margins of error in those polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RFK isn't on the ballot in MI

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I’ll take the results without RFK

[Redban]

I’ll take the results without RFK

Kennedy isn’t the guy you have to watch for. He and Trump have had some spats recently, with Kennedy advocating positions to the right of Trump (eg pandemic response). Kennedy is mostly splitting the votes equally between them. The ones to watch are Stein and West, whose support is likely coming entirely from Biden voters. West probably won’t make the ballot in most states, so screw him. But Stein can take a solid 1-3% from Biden

[wbrocks67]

The  poll withRFK, Stein, West is more indicative of what will happen because, in practice, voters will have those options before them. Trump is ahead outside the margins of error in those polls

This is verifiably false? It's like saying that Betsy Johnson will get 20% in Oregon simply b/c the polls around this time said so and "the voters will have those options before them." There's something called a campaign.

[Redban]

The  poll withRFK, Stein, West is more indicative of what will happen because, in practice, voters will have those options before them. Trump is ahead outside the margins of error in those polls

This is verifiably false? It's like saying that Betsy Johnson will get 20% in Oregon simply b/c the polls around this time said so and "the voters will have those options before them." There's something called a campaign.

By this logic, the head to head polls are just as unreliable because “there’s something called a campaign.”  In that case, why do you bother checking up on the polls if you’re just going to dismiss any result because “there’s something called a campaign” to happen. You didn’t want to dismiss the Trump +2 in Michigan just cause “there’s something called a campaign” that has to happen still

At this point, the polls that include all options are more indicative of what will happen because voters will have all options before them in November. And RFK jr has been vetted and seen by many voters already: he has the name recognition. Biden supporters cling to the idea that RFK Jr will decline as people learn about him, but the truth is that many people already know about him

[wbrocks67]

The  poll withRFK, Stein, West is more indicative of what will happen because, in practice, voters will have those options before them. Trump is ahead outside the margins of error in those polls

This is verifiably false? It's like saying that Betsy Johnson will get 20% in Oregon simply b/c the polls around this time said so and "the voters will have those options before them." There's something called a campaign.

By this logic, the head to head polls are just as unreliable because “there’s something called a campaign.”  In that case, why do you bother checking up on the polls if you’re just going to dismiss any result because “there’s something called a campaign” to happen. You didn’t want to dismiss the Trump +2 in Michigan just cause “there’s something called a campaign” that has to happen still

At this point, the polls that include all options are more indicative of what will happen because voters will have all options before them in November. And RFK jr has been vetted and seen by many voters already: he has the name recognition. Biden supporters cling to the idea that RFK Jr will decline as people learn about him, but the truth is that many people already know about him

This is straight up delusional and I don't know what fantasy land you're living in.

[heatcharger]

Michigan:

Biden 35%
Haley 26%
Kennedy 23%
West 3%
Stein 3%

North Carolina:

Biden 33%
Haley 31%
Kennedy 19%
West 2%
Stein 2%

Biden vs Haley would likely be the end of democracy, but the maps would be interesting.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think this should lay to rest the idea of Biden being dead in the water in Michigan. The state is very much winnable for Biden and despite the polls I think he’ll ultimately hold onto it even if Trump wins the election.

[heatcharger]

It looks like TRUMP is ahead in Michigan and North Carolina.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1753215650988699921

[NYDem]

The  poll withRFK, Stein, West is more indicative of what will happen because, in practice, voters will have those options before them. Trump is ahead outside the margins of error in those polls

This is verifiably false? It's like saying that Betsy Johnson will get 20% in Oregon simply b/c the polls around this time said so and "the voters will have those options before them." There's something called a campaign.

By this logic, the head to head polls are just as unreliable because “there’s something called a campaign.”  In that case, why do you bother checking up on the polls if you’re just going to dismiss any result because “there’s something called a campaign” to happen. You didn’t want to dismiss the Trump +2 in Michigan just cause “there’s something called a campaign” that has to happen still

At this point, the polls that include all options are more indicative of what will happen because voters will have all options before them in November. And RFK jr has been vetted and seen by many voters already: he has the name recognition. Biden supporters cling to the idea that RFK Jr will decline as people learn about him, but the truth is that many people already know about him

In almost every single election third party candidates lose support going into election day and then underperform final polling. Johnson polled as high as 12% in 2016, his polling average was 4.8% by election day, with a final result of 3.3%. Stein's final polling average fell to 2% and she got 1%. Somebody already mentioned Betsy Johnson as a downballot example, and there are plenty of others. Martin Babinec polled in the mid 20s as a Reform candidate in my district in 2016, only to fall to 12% by election day.

It's not just cope to assume that the third party numbers won't be this high. It's what (almost) always happens.

[Redban]

In almost every single election third party candidates lose support going into election day and then underperform final polling. Johnson polled as high as 12% in 2016, his polling average was 4.8% by election day, with a final result of 3.3%. Stein's final polling average was 2% and she got 1%. Somebody already mentioned Betsy Johnson as a downballot example, and there are plenty of others. It's not just cope to assume that the third party numbers won't be this high. It's what (almost) always happens.

RFK Jr has raised far more money than those candidates, is starting off with greater name recognition than those candidates did, and has an election where a record amount of people don’t like the Democrat vs Republican matchup.  He is more comparable to Perot than Johnson 2016

[NYDem]

In almost every single election third party candidates lose support going into election day and then underperform final polling. Johnson polled as high as 12% in 2016, his polling average was 4.8% by election day, with a final result of 3.3%. Stein's final polling average was 2% and she got 1%. Somebody already mentioned Betsy Johnson as a downballot example, and there are plenty of others. It's not just cope to assume that the third party numbers won't be this high. It's what (almost) always happens.

RFK Jr has raised far more money than those candidates, is starting off with greater name recognition than those candidates did, and has an election where a record amount of people don’t like the Democrat vs Republican matchup.  He is more comparable to Perot than Johnson 2016

Even Perot fell off from early polling to final results (though he did outperform final polls by 1%). In March 1996 he polled at 17% and his final result was 8.4%.

Perot 1992 was a really weird campaign and is an exception to a lot of usual political rules. He was outright winning the race in June before he abruptly dropped out. He re-entered one month before the election to diminished support. There's never been another campaign anything like it. He overperformed final polls by an significant amount, but was still less than half his pre-dropout peak.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RFK isn't even on the ballot except for GA, we don't need GA, Trump isn't up 8

[MAGA 2024]

RFK isn't even on the ballot except for GA, we don't need GA, Trump isn't up 8

Your not winning a swing state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RFK isn't even on the ballot except for GA, we don't need GA, Trump isn't up 8

Your not winning a swing state

Lol it's allI MOE

[Comrade Funk]

The cowardice of the Democrats in Congress will lose them this election. They had a chance to end this charade. They blew it. People talk about Biden being a lame duck if he dropped out. Newsflash....he already is!

[wbrocks67]

In almost every single election third party candidates lose support going into election day and then underperform final polling. Johnson polled as high as 12% in 2016, his polling average was 4.8% by election day, with a final result of 3.3%. Stein's final polling average was 2% and she got 1%. Somebody already mentioned Betsy Johnson as a downballot example, and there are plenty of others. It's not just cope to assume that the third party numbers won't be this high. It's what (almost) always happens.

RFK Jr has raised far more money than those candidates, is starting off with greater name recognition than those candidates did, and has an election where a record amount of people don’t like the Democrat vs Republican matchup.  He is more comparable to Perot than Johnson 2016

He only raised $7M last quarter, the same as high profile senate candidates. And he's literally only starting off with high name ID because of his last name, not because of himself. You could put anyone with the last name Kennedy (esp first name Robert) and you would get a very high ID.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

This should be changed to Trump +5/2 since those are the H2H numbers (we generally don’t include RFK in headline)

[Woody]

BOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!