Will the Israel and Gaza conflict last until Nov. & what implications will it have for election?

[Woody]

This thing seems to be dragging out longer than expected. The conventional invasion of the Gaza Strip hasn't even completed it's final phase yet.

The longer it drags out will it help or hurt Biden?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Obviously hurts the longer it drags out, as the left is angry at Biden for genocide and it also hurts the economy by pushing up oil prices and blocking the Red Sea. I'd go as far to say that the election is Safe Trump if the war is still going on by November.

Netanyahu has an incentive to drag this out as long as possible, as there is a good chance elections will be forced as soon as the war is over. Also, Ben Gvir would probably leave the coalition if the war ends.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

This heavily depends on whether Biden takes a firmer hand with the saboteurs determined to make Americans suffer over a conflict half a world away.

[Vosem]

This thing seems to be dragging out longer than expected. The conventional invasion of the Gaza Strip hasn't even completed it's final phase yet.

The longer it drags out will it help or hurt Biden?

Probably hurts him just because it's a good issue for the Republican Party, which is seen as more consistently supportive of the Israeli campaign (even though that's a little questionable in some ways). I can see it helping if it leads up to some Sista Souljah moment where Biden dramatically rejects helping Gaza, but while there've been some movements in that direction from the White House it seems like he's too cautious to go all the way.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

This heavily depends on whether Biden takes a firmer hand with the saboteurs determined to make Americans suffer over a conflict half a world away.

Biden wants Israel to surrender to Hamas to help his own reelection odds.

[PSOL]

The war against Palestine will end in 3 months or so. The conventional warfare against Ukraine might pause for a longstanding ceasefire in 2025 or 2026.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hopefully not.

It's definitely a lingering complication for Biden, and the sooner it ends; the better.

[SnowLabrador]

It's going to last for years, possibly decades, and it's what will doom Biden.

[GAinDC]

It's going to last for years, possibly decades, and it's what will doom Biden.

lyou think everything will doom Biden and Dems. 

[SnowLabrador]

It's going to last for years, possibly decades, and it's what will doom Biden.

lyou think everything will doom Biden and Dems. 

Young voters aren't going back to Biden. Regardless of how you or I feel about Israel's actions, it's clear that they won't support Biden again unless he cuts off aid to Israel. Deal with it.

As for how long the war itself will last, keep in mind that the Korean War never technically ended.

[GAinDC]

It's going to last for years, possibly decades, and it's what will doom Biden.

lyou think everything will doom Biden and Dems. 

Young voters aren't going back to Biden. Regardless of how you or I feel about Israel's actions, it's clear that they won't support Biden again unless he cuts off aid to Israel. Deal with it.

As for how long the war itself will last, keep in mind that the Korean War never technically ended.

Sure, Jan

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I find it difficult to see the conflict ending before November

[izixs]

I find it difficult to see the conflict ending before November

Indeed. It has been going on for decades at various levels of intensity and this turn of it is either going to end with Netanyahu's government falling apart (likely for unrelated things) or the extermination of the citizens of Gaza because that's how Netanyahu's government thinks it can retain power.

I'm hoping for the former because I'm not a fan of genocide.

[BlueSwan]

It seems quite likely that this conflict is what costs Biden the election.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Netanyahu just refused to send a delegation to Cairo today.

[henster]

Besides 2004 when has foreign policy been the deciding factor in modern US elections? There are no US boots on the ground in Israel or Ukraine, it doesn't even come up in top 10 issues in any poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just a reminder that there is a megathread for discussing the war's effects on the presidential election at https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=578700.0.  I'm not going to merge this thread into that one because merging a poll into a long regular thread can be somewhat confusing to readers.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

It might have ended by election day

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Besides 2004 when has foreign policy been the deciding factor in modern US elections? There are no US boots on the ground in Israel or Ukraine, it doesn't even come up in top 10 issues in any poll.

1968 for sure and likely 1980.