Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[jaichind]

After running and losing in the 2022 Tokyo Upper House election and now coming in 4th in Tokyo's 15th by-election we can now say for sure 乙武 洋匡(Ototake Hirotada)'s past of cheating on his wife with 5 women at the same time is not a vote winner.   He should hive up politics and go back to being a political commentator

[jaichind]

Results

Nagasaki 3rd (43% in)
CDP                       69.3
JRP                        30.7


Shimane 1st (18% in)
CDP                      53.6
LDP                       46.4


Tokyo 15th (nothing in yet)

[jaichind]

https://www.47news.jp/10854753.html

JRP calls for early Lower House elections saying that these by-elections show that LDP has lost the confidence of the voters to rule.

[Logical]

After running and losing in the 2022 Tokyo Upper House election and now coming in 4th in Tokyo's 15th by-election we can now say for sure 乙武 洋匡(Ototake Hirotada)'s past of cheating on his wife with 5 women at the same time is not a vote winner.   He should hive up politics and go back to being a political commentator

No he should start teaching Japanese incels and hikikomori how to be a Casanova.

[jaichind]

Results

Nagasaki 3rd (52% in)
CDP                       69.6
JRP                        30.4


Shimane 1st (27% in) - count still has rural lean
CDP                      55.9
LDP                       44.1


Tokyo 15th (nothing in yet) - come on, start getting results out !!! - this one is the most fun of all 3 on vote share breakdown

[jaichind]

The most likely path forward now is for Kishida not to run for the LDP Prez race (just like Suga in 2021) and then the new LDP leader to call an early Lower House election right after the LDP Prez race.

[jaichind]

Since Tokyo 15th is not broken out into cities, towns, and villages the count is one giant glob which at this stage is by thresholds which means so far it is a 5-way tie

[jaichind]

Results

Nagasaki 3rd (91% in) (with LDP in the race JRP is stronger in urban areas and CDP is stronger in rural areas)
CDP                       66.5
JRP                        33.5


Shimane 1st (73% in) - last of the urban vote should push up the CDP vote
CDP                      54.3
LDP                       45.7


Tokyo 15th (26% in) - meaningless 5 way tie due to threshold reporting - need more data

[jaichind]

Results

Nagasaki 3rd (98% in) 
CDP                       68.5
JRP                        31.5


Shimane 1st (99% in) 
CDP                      58.9
LDP                       41.1


Tokyo 15th (71% in)
CDP                                 18.0
Ex-CDP Upper House MP    18.0
JRP                                  18.0
CPJ                                  18.0
Pro-TPFA                          15.2
Disgraced ex-LDP MP          5.6
DIY                                   5.6

[jaichind]

It does seem exit polls overstated the CDP vote share in Shimane 1st a bit but still massive.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The most likely path forward now is for Kishida not to run for the LDP Prez race (just like Suga in 2021) and then the new LDP leader to call an early Lower House election right after the LDP Prez race.

So in sum this was a giant no confidence vote from the people, in Kishida himself.

[jaichind]

Results

Nagasaki 3rd (98% in)
CDP                       68.5
JRP                        31.5


Shimane 1st (all counted)
CDP                      58.8
LDP                       41.2


Tokyo 15th (95% in) (pro-TPFA candidate pushed to 5th place)
CDP                                 29.3
Ex-CDP Upper House MP    17.7
JRP                                  16.5
CPJ                                  14.4
Pro-TPFA                          11.4
DIY                                   5.1
Disgraced ex-LDP MP          4.5

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Margins have dropped recently (though have still been solid) but the Shimane district used to be one of the very safest LDP seats in all Japan.

[jaichind]

Results

Nagasaki 3rd (all counted)
CDP                       68.4
JRP                        31.6


Shimane 1st (all counted)
CDP                      58.8
LDP                       41.2


Tokyo 15th (99% in) 
CDP                                 29.0
Ex-CDP Upper House MP    17.4
JRP                                  16.7
CPJ                                  14.2
Pro-TPFA                          11.5
DIY                                   5.1
Disgraced ex-LDP MP          4.7

[jaichind]

The Japanese are fond of ancient Chinese history, especially the Three Kingdoms period.

Japanese political blogger map of various political forces (various LDP factions, KP, CDP, JCP, DPP etc) in Japan mapped to the various regions of the disintegrating Eastern Han dynasty which was the prelude to a series of conflicts that would lead to the Three Kingdoms period.  The location of each faction is correlated to how close they are to power.  The Kishida faction, of course, is in the location of the Eastern Han capital.


Eastern Han dynasty regional map by population

[Lachi]

I think that CPJ result might be causing some in the LDP to sh**t bricks, that's a really good result for them.

[jaichind]

Hard Right LDP chart of LINOs (LDP in name only) that they claim has to be defeated in the next general election

The main issues with these LDP MPs seem to be social liberalism, pro-immigration, and pro-PRC/pro-ROK positions.  Some of them are bum wraps.  There are some pro-PRC LDP MPs but Kono is not one of them since his fairly hawkish on PRC. His father is pro-PRC so I think people are lumping him with his father.

[Dr. Cynic]

The most likely path forward now is for Kishida not to run for the LDP Prez race (just like Suga in 2021) and then the new LDP leader to call an early Lower House election right after the LDP Prez race.

So in sum this was a giant no confidence vote from the people, in Kishida himself.

Hard to see it as anything but. These results are brutal. I don't think Shimane has ever not been held by the LDP since its creation.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hard to see it as anything but. These results are brutal. I don't think Shimane has ever not been held by the LDP since its creation.

It was the sort of place where, for a very long time, the LDP vote might as well have been weighed rather than counted.

[Logical]

Despite the strong result, the CDP winner of Nagasaki 3rd will face an uphill battle in a general election. Nagasaki loses a seat in this round of redistricting and the 3rd district is the one that gets axed. He will contest the reconfigured 2nd district in the general election where 70% of the territory is new to him and the LDP incumbent is pretty strong.

[jaichind]

Despite the strong result, the CDP winner of Nagasaki 3rd will face an uphill battle in a general election. Nagasaki loses a seat in this round of redistricting and the 3rd district is the one that gets axed. He will contest the reconfigured 2nd district in the general election where 70% of the territory is new to him and the LDP incumbent is pretty strong.

Agreed.  I have the LDP incumbent winning this redistricted seat in the next Lower House election

[jaichind]

What is funny about the Tokyo 15th by-election is that the CPJ candidate who ran on an anti-immigration and socially conservative platform is an Arabic language expert.   Tha makes 2 women Tokyo politicians that is an Arabic language experts since Koike is also an Arabic language expert.

[Lachi]

AP reporting Kishida will not step down as a result of the by election results, however I feel like he's just delaying the inevitable at this point.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1785202502901674453?t=ARvbSC7rZQx0CcdonsrHxg&s...

[jaichind]

The JPY front does not look that great either for Kishida.  JPY fell to the 1990 low before clear MOF intervention pushed it back up.  The problem will not go away as long as the Fed does not cut rates and the BOJ does not raise rates.  However, the BOJ cannot raise the rate without triggering a fiscal crisis.

The full cost of Abe's misguided MMT politics now comes into view.

The CPI-adjusted value of JPY is now around half of what it was in the 2008-2012 period.  In my most recent business trip to Japan I was shocked at how little hotel and restaurant bills came out to when compared to the mid 2000s when I started to go to Japan for business trips.

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20240429-3QHAAZXUOFFGXC4DVWW6N2LHAU/?outputType=theme_weekly-fuji

Sankei points out that the Aso faction is the only faction left that is still operationally powerful and will have an outsized influence in the next LDP Prez election.  It indicates that Aso seems to favor FM 上川 陽子(Kamikawa Yōko) who is from the Kishida faction.  If she wins the LDP race it will setup for Japan's first women PM.