Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[jaichind]

NHK says Kishida is considering disbanding hia faction.

[Logical]

It would be a very radical move if it does happen. The Abe faction would have no choice but to dissolve too and the other factions would likely follow. LDP factionalism is much weaker since Abe's second premiership but it's still quite influential in many things.

[jaichind]

Looks like all LDP factions will disband. Exception for now is the Aso faction. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like all LDP factions will disband. Exception for now is the Aso faction. 

So I guess that for the sake of party harmony the solution was "faction abolition for all those who are willing".

[jaichind]

This reminds me of ROC's DPP abolishing all factions back in 2006.  There were a bunch of scandals around party elections within the DPP which involved DPP factions signing up bogus party members.  As a result in 2006 DPP "abolished" all DPP factions.  What it functionally meant is that faction offices and organizations were abolished.  Then it turned out that even without those things DPP factions continue to exist but just without formal organisations.

I suspect LDP factions being "abolished" will be the same thing.

[Logical]

That's true. Formal institutional factions might disband but informal associations like former PM Suga's psuedo faction will remain.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/civic_rights/status/1748323907936108946

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Then it turned out that even without those things DPP factions continue to exist but just without formal organisations.

Almost like factions aren't completely random groupings of people, at a basic level they're actually based on some shared interest be it ideological or policy or regionalism or class or whatnot!

[jaichind]

As of right now, the Aso and Motegi factions refuse to disband.  Kishida has to be able to force them to do so or else his leadership standing would be shot and he will most likely have to go.

[jaichind]

Japanese media reports that Aso is very angry that Kishida made the call to dissolve his faction and put pressure on everyone else to dissolve their faction without consulting him.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kishida seems likely finished. RIP.

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA210R40R20C24A1000000/?n_cid=SNSTW001&n_tw=1705828809

Aso and  Motegi factions plan to maintain their existence and make a call after the Jan 25h LDP report on reform.

[jaichind]

LDP support is at a record low and lower than other periods of LDP crisis over the last 30 years.

[jaichind]

Mayor election for Tokyo's 八王子市(Hachioji).  Exit polls have it at

Center-Left-JCP alliance     42.2  (former TPFA MLA in Tokyo prefecture assembly Rengo background)
LDP-KP                            38.8
TPFA                                15.5 (former TPFA MLA in Tokyo prefecture assembly YP background)



The two TPFA MLAs won in 2017 on the TPFA wave but both insisted on running when in 2021 it was clear that the TPFA had receded with both losing.  Now both face each other in this election.

It seems the LDP funding scandals is finally having an electoral impact.

[jaichind]

Mayor election in 大津市(Otsu City) of 滋賀(Shiga).  The exit poll has pro-LDP incumbent barely holding on



 
Significant LDP defection plus independents leaning toward Center-Left opposition is making this election close when in pro-LDP incumbent elections the LDP vote should be solid for the incumbent and the independent vote should lean LDP.

[jaichind]

NHK calls 八王子市(Hachioji)  for LDP-KP despite exit polls.  This fits with recent trends of LDP outperforming exit polls.  I guess with all these LDP funding scandals there is shy LDP effect going on,

[jaichind]

The mayor election in 大津市(Otsu City) of 滋賀(Shiga) is mostly done.  LDP is slightly better than exit polls.

pro-LDP incumbent         53.8
Center-Left opposition    46.2

[jaichind]

八王子市(Hachioji)  mayor election (open)

LDP-KP                          35.8
Center-Left-JCP alliance  32.0
TPFA                             25.2
RS                                  5.7

Exit polls overestimated the Center-Left-JCP alliance candidate and underestimated the TPFA candidate.  The LDP-KP incumbent back in 2020 won over 55% of the vote in a splintered field.

[jaichind]

Feb 4th Kyodo mayor election (open field) - chaotic battle

LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo (anti-JCP consensus candidate)
JCP
JRP-ARFE-Local DPP-Kyodo Party
LDP rebel

[Octowakandi]

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA210R40R20C24A1000000/?n_cid=SNSTW001&n_tw=1705828809

Aso and  Motegi factions plan to maintain their existence and make a call after the Jan 25h LDP report on reform.

What will happen? Will Aso call for Kishida to step down?

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval bounce stalls

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA210R40R20C24A1000000/?n_cid=SNSTW001&n_tw=1705828809

Aso and  Motegi factions plan to maintain their existence and make a call after the Jan 25h LDP report on reform.

What will happen? Will Aso call for Kishida to step down?

Not clear.   Kishida might be better he can outlast Aso.

[jaichind]

LDP Political Reform Committee discussion points:
1) Ban fundraising parties
2) Introduce external screening of political expense reports
3) Reinforce compliance on fundraising rules
 

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6489230

Kishida seems to have backed down.  He is for the disbanding of factions but he will allow "Policy Groups" to remain that will influence policy, elections, and personnel.  In other wards, factions will continue under another name. 

The concept of "policy groups", in LDP history, is usually used during a faction split.  A sub-faction that wants to split from a faction often forms a "policy group" which over time just splits off and just becomes another faction.

[jaichind]

DIY candidate for 福岡(Fukuoka) 5th district projects a traditionalist image.  I like it.  I would vote for him if he had any chance of winning.