Official 2023 General Election Results Thread

[Oryxslayer]

I feel like VA has been a red mirage since at least 2016, so nothing really new there.

PA will likely be a blue mirage. Most counties have gotten very good with counting ballots faster, Allegheny and Philly were able to dump most of their VBM pretty early on last year, and then most other counties that I can remember generally posted VBM results before in-person. Fetterman jumped out to like an 84-15 lead in the beginning and then it only started receding once the election day returns slowly came in. I expect that to happen again this year.

There will be a red mirage in PA near the end. Oz closed the gap to 48.3 to 49.2 at over 80% reported when the race was called, before Fetterman's lead grew to 5 points.

Yes, they seemed to have learned a few things from 2020 and 2022:

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1721957708889244123?t=0O1nVMmG-ZR-CYJm5-P...

[roxas11]

How useful are turnout anecdotes anyway?

Most of the time it's not useful at all, but sometimes they do end up being correct

for example, back in 2016 the turnout anecdotes about Hillary underperforming in Midwestern states turned out to be very accurate in the end

[Benjamin Frank]

Sorry for the personal interest, but I'm sure other people are interested. I'm going out for lunch and then I might go to the library. What time does the first poll close today?

[politicallefty]

So, only Ohio Ballot Measures will apparently have Exit Polling.

Conclusion = Edison Research are the biggest FRAUDS ever!

Could just be that no media outlets cared to have and pay for any other exit polling conducted.

I mean, I get this stuff costs money, but Ohio of all places, where the measures seem like the most likely outcome of the entire night seems like a weird place to spend money. At least chip in for KY, since the results of that exit poll would be fascinating given there is considerable likely crossover support.

The Ohio numbers are most relevant to the national picture though, which is what the news media ultimately cares about. Remember, exit polls exist not just to predict the outcome, but to show demographic data. The latter is really what the news media cares about when it comes to abortion (as far as marijuana being polled, it's just tagging along for the ride). To the extent that the KY and MS races are nationalized (particularly the former), that will be shown in the topline results.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sorry for the personal interest, but I'm sure other people are interested. I'm going out for lunch and then I might go to the library. What time does the first poll close today?

Poll closing times in key states:

Kentucky: 6pm local time.  The state is divided between the Eastern and Central time zones.

Ohio: 7:30pm Eastern.

Mississippi: 7pm Central (= 8pm Eastern).

New Jersey: 8pm Eastern.

Pennsylvania: 8pm Eastern.

[Benjamin Frank]

Sorry for the personal interest, but I'm sure other people are interested. I'm going out for lunch and then I might go to the library. What time does the first poll close today?

Poll closing times in key states:

Kentucky: 6pm local time.  The state is divided between the Eastern and Central time zones.

Ohio: 7:30pm Eastern.

Mississippi: 7pm Central (= 8pm Eastern).

New Jersey: 8pm Eastern.

Pennsylvania: 8pm Eastern.

Thanks!

Also, Virginia is 7 PM Eastern.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dave Weigel posted an hour-by-hour overview of results tonight: https://www.semafor.com/article/11/07/2023/your-hour-by-hour-guide-to-tuesdays-elections.  It's decent, except for this bit:

10 p.m. Voting wraps up in Utah, where Republican nominee Celeste Maloy is favored to replace her old boss, ex-Rep. Chris Stewart, in the 2nd Congressional District. Maloy defeated a more moderate Republican in the primary, setting up a typically partisan-polarized race against Democratic state Sen. Kathleen Riebe; Trump carried that district by 17 points.

I tweeted at him with a reminder that the UT-02 special is in two weeks. We'll see if he changes the article.

[Oryxslayer]

Sorry for the personal interest, but I'm sure other people are interested. I'm going out for lunch and then I might go to the library. What time does the first poll close today?

Headliners:

KY: 6 pm est in some areas, 7pm est in most.
VA: 7pm est
OH: 7:30 est
PA: 8 pm est
NJ: 8pm est
MS: 8pm est

Other States:

IN: 6 pm est in most areas, 7pm in a few
FL: 7pm in the areas that are voting today
NC: 7:30 pm est
MA: 8pm est
CT: 8pm est
ME: 8pm est
RI: 8pm est
KS: 8pm in the places voting
TX: All except El Paso at 8pm, then El Paso at 9
NY: 9pm est
AZ: 9pm est
CO: 9pm est
Nm: 9pm est
MN: 9pm est
ID: 9pm in the places voting
IA: 10pm est
WA: 11pm est

[oldtimer]

How useful are turnout anecdotes anyway?

Most of the time it's not useful at all, but sometimes they do end up being correct

for example, back in 2016 the turnout anecdotes about Hillary underperforming in Midwestern states turned out to be very accurate in the end

Anecdotes never failed me, when I heard or read things from people that shouldn't be expected those deserve attention.

[Splash]

I feel like VA has been a red mirage since at least 2016, so nothing really new there.

PA will likely be a blue mirage. Most counties have gotten very good with counting ballots faster, Allegheny and Philly were able to dump most of their VBM pretty early on last year, and then most other counties that I can remember generally posted VBM results before in-person. Fetterman jumped out to like an 84-15 lead in the beginning and then it only started receding once the election day returns slowly came in. I expect that to happen again this year.

There will be a red mirage in PA near the end. Oz closed the gap to 48.3 to 49.2 at over 80% reported when the race was called, before Fetterman's lead grew to 5 points.

Yes, they seemed to have learned a few things from 2020 and 2022:

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1721957708889244123?t=0O1nVMmG-ZR-CYJm5-P...

Related to Allegheny County, their elections website is pretty good if you want real-time precinct level data on what's reported and what's still out.

[Gass3268]

Philly is going to sail past 2021

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1721996939351277637?s=46

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How useful are turnout anecdotes anyway?

They're not at all. It's just until we get exit polls or results us nerds don't have anything else to go based on so we just cling to whatever reports and data exist.

[It’s so Joever]

Alright did my usual “Snapmaps” anecdotal analysis. For VA the data is mixed, for KY it does appear there is possibly a slight advantage in more Beshear friendly areas, and for MS there seems to be a good turnout overall with the exception of Jackson and the Gulf Coast. Read into this how you will.

[MT Treasurer]

How useful are turnout anecdotes anyway?

As a general rule, people will only post "turnout anecdotes" when they back up their preconceived narrative while ignoring, dismissing or 'nuancing' them when they don’t.

Stick to SoS websites/accounts for reliable information on turnout.

[oldtimer]

Alright did my usual “Snapmaps” anecdotal analysis. For VA the data is mixed, for KY it does appear there is possibly a slight advantage in more Beshear friendly areas, and for MS there seems to be a good turnout overall with the exception of Jackson and the Gulf Coast. Read into this how you will.

Anything on New Jersey ?

[President Johnson]

Rather than just checking the results, I will today leave this page open on my phone and go through the thread page by page watching the elections unfolding. It's what a dislike about the time shift between Europe and North America. You always need to go to bed when US elections get interesting and the next day is Wednesday. So unless it's a presidential election, it's not exactly worth to stay up and take one day off from work.

[bilaps]

So, only Ohio Ballot Measures will apparently have Exit Polling.

Conclusion = Edison Research are the biggest FRAUDS ever!

Could just be that no media outlets cared to have and pay for any other exit polling conducted.

I mean, I get this stuff costs money, but Ohio of all places, where the measures seem like the most likely outcome of the entire night seems like a weird place to spend money. At least chip in for KY, since the results of that exit poll would be fascinating given there is considerable likely crossover support.

The Ohio numbers are most relevant to the national picture though, which is what the news media ultimately cares about. Remember, exit polls exist not just to predict the outcome, but to show demographic data. The latter is really what the news media cares about when it comes to abortion (as far as marijuana being polled, it's just tagging along for the ride). To the extent that the KY and MS races are nationalized (particularly the former), that will be shown in the topline results.

Virginia elections are far more relevant than Ohio.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1721988175306846283

[Gass3268]

VaTech is going to pass 2022 turnout.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1722003391604232508?s=20

[politicallefty]

So, only Ohio Ballot Measures will apparently have Exit Polling.

Conclusion = Edison Research are the biggest FRAUDS ever!

Could just be that no media outlets cared to have and pay for any other exit polling conducted.

I mean, I get this stuff costs money, but Ohio of all places, where the measures seem like the most likely outcome of the entire night seems like a weird place to spend money. At least chip in for KY, since the results of that exit poll would be fascinating given there is considerable likely crossover support.

The Ohio numbers are most relevant to the national picture though, which is what the news media ultimately cares about. Remember, exit polls exist not just to predict the outcome, but to show demographic data. The latter is really what the news media cares about when it comes to abortion (as far as marijuana being polled, it's just tagging along for the ride). To the extent that the KY and MS races are nationalized (particularly the former), that will be shown in the topline results.

Virginia elections are far more relevant than Ohio.

I don't think the national networks have ever done exit polling for state legislatures though.

[Gass3268]

Allegheny County, PA also blowing past 2021 turnout.

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1722003353289285930?s=20

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1721988175306846283

How is that even possible?

[Oryxslayer]

So, only Ohio Ballot Measures will apparently have Exit Polling.

Conclusion = Edison Research are the biggest FRAUDS ever!

Could just be that no media outlets cared to have and pay for any other exit polling conducted.

I mean, I get this stuff costs money, but Ohio of all places, where the measures seem like the most likely outcome of the entire night seems like a weird place to spend money. At least chip in for KY, since the results of that exit poll would be fascinating given there is considerable likely crossover support.

The Ohio numbers are most relevant to the national picture though, which is what the news media ultimately cares about. Remember, exit polls exist not just to predict the outcome, but to show demographic data. The latter is really what the news media cares about when it comes to abortion (as far as marijuana being polled, it's just tagging along for the ride). To the extent that the KY and MS races are nationalized (particularly the former), that will be shown in the topline results.

Virginia elections are far more relevant than Ohio.

I don't think the national networks have ever done exit polling for state legislatures though.

It's usual to ask "Which Party's Candidate did you vote for in the State Senate/House?," and have a multi-battery selection of options for the two questions, if they coincide with statewide races of note.  But that is the important part, the coinciding. The fact each race is different per district, some with no candidates from one of the big two, means that a statewide vote count is not all that informative. Additionally, unlike congress, the districts are too numerous to have representative exit polling stations in every district.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1721988175306846283

How is that even possible?

Guesstimation; some kind of coding error or broken sensor/reader device within the machine?

[Splash]

Mississippi absentee turnout up 6.8%, highest in Democratic counties

Overall absentee ballot requests are up 6.8%, suggesting voter interest and turnout may be higher this year than in 2019. Absentee requests increased in over 59% of the counties Democrats won in the last gubernatorial election but only 42% of those won by Republicans.

Regions with higher absentee numbers this year include densely populated areas such as the Memphis suburbs in the northwest, the Gulf Coast, and the Jackson metro.

Much of the heavily Democratic Delta region has high absentee numbers relative to 2019.