Official 2023 General Election Results Thread

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Is there any explicable reason why Dems seemed to have triaged the Roanoke state senate seat? It was only Trump +0.1% and this is the exact kind of area where Democrats would overperform the presidential top line.

They are doing about 9-10 points worse than Biden in polling. Any Trump seat is Likely R in this environment.

Didn’t exactly work out in 2022.

Rs still outperformed Trump by 6 in Virginia in 2022.

[wbrocks67]

Can someone provide context for these? We're getting a ton of ____ is seeing high turnout! with no context of who it would be better for lol

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1721983746692227116

[BigZuck08]

Pennsylvania voting machine has a glitch in one county (https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/election-2023-northampton-county-pennsylvania-superior-court/), patriots.win (formerly the_donald subreddit) user offers their thoughts:

I've said the same thing here numerous times, and I just get called a doomer and told we need to vote harder.

When there's not a single F****** SHRED of consequences for this bullsh**t, they are obviously not going to stop. I mean, my god, apparently all you have to do in this nation to get by with straight up election rigging, is just say things like "there was a glitch".

And it's like POOF, f****** magic, it all disappears off everyones radar like it never even happened. Oh, it was a glitch. Must not be anything we can do about it! Oh well! Vote anyway even though it's a "glitch" and then just hope it gets better!

I mean, my god, these s haven't even been f****** confronted, let alone anything of substance actually happening of consequence of their actions.

Why ANYONE believes for a f******second that "oh we're making some changes to the rules in key states" or any other garbage, means a goddamned thing, is beyond me.

It's all meaningless, all pointless, when they just blatantly cheat right in front of your face and not a single thing even hints of stopping them.

If they're not clogging toilet pipes with mops to shuffle everyone out of the building and count boxes of fake votes, they're causing "glitches" in the electronic voting machines that THEY OWN, where your vote gets cast for the other guy. And they don't even hide it. They don't even pretend to hide it.

It's all just right there in the open, and everybody just throws their hands up and is like "oh well nothing we can do".

I'll tell you one thing, if you go try and vote and some f***stick tells you that the machine is switching your vote to the other guy, because of a "glitch', the absolute last thing you should do is just leave and hope it gets better. At minimum, someone needs an ass whipping.

Oh boy. I live near this county and it's a politically competitive one. Get ready for the endless baseless voter fraud accusations.

I'd genuinely be concerned for your safety over the next few days. The hate and anger these people have is laughable at first but really sad and dangerous.

I appreciate your concern for my safety, but I think I'll be alright. My political views on this forum aren't tied to my actual identity.

What I'm about to say probably won't have any influence on the actual result, but I saw several Carluccio yard signs in my area (I live in a safe D area) but no McCaffrey yard signs.

Cameron is going to be crushed TONIGHT, absolutely annihilated by Beshear. Andy might be even by 10+ Points and the Race might already been called by the time MS Polls close.

https://twitter.com/MichaelPruser/status/1721972052951732618
Cameron is lagging behind Turnout wise even in the Rual Counties Bevin won big in 2019. Maybe he was too much Establishment? He's also a McConnell Lackey.

This doesn't look good for Cameron. This makes me feel a bit more confident on Beshear's re-election, though it still might turn around. Then again, there could also be low turnout in Dem-heavy areas as well. We'll just have to see.

https://twitter.com/bruneelections/status/1721980273389174806?s=46

Good news for the pro-abortion and pro-marijuana crew.

Funny enough, in Montco back home, the area where I'm from is still a bit swingy but has definitely been trending D, I've seen 1 McCaffery sign. That's it - while I've seen a ton of Carluccio. Now, most of Carluccio's are the county GOP ones on public property, but I've still probably seen like 4-5 on peoples lawns compared to only 1 for McCaffery. However, I feel like this particular election is just not one that inspires a lot of sign usage (apparently the Montco Dems feel the same way since their signs on public property have been nearly nonexistent for Mccaffery, etc.), so we'll see what happens, but this may be the most I've seen of a 'ton of signs may actually been literally nothing' election. Usually it's not like that, but this one I think may be.

I agree. We unfortunately haven't gotten much data about this election, but due to Democrats doing really well in most of the off-year elections, I predict a McCaffrey win by about 5 points. It is still possible for Carluccio to win, but I doubt it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1721957045971132785?s=20

Watch out for disastrously low turnout in Charlottesville, Blacksburg and Williamsburg. This’ll only cost Democrats about 1 state house seat and 1 state senate seat though.

Doesn't seem to be happening.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

North Jackson, MS polling station:

Mississippi is reporting "steady" to "heavy" turnout across the state:

https://eu.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/11/07/follow-along-here-as-mississippi-votes-in-the-general-election/71480265007/

[oldtimer]

Did race play any role at all in the Kentucky election?

Probably minor, but still existant.

However Cameron's lead weights around his neck are pretty known:

He's associated with McConnell, his campaign imploded early and never recovered, and Beshear is popular.

[BigZuck08]

North Jackson, MS polling station:

Mississippi is reporting "steady" to "heavy" turnout across the state:

https://eu.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/11/07/follow-along-here-as-mississippi-votes-in-the-general-election/71480265007/

Based. If turnout is actually that high, this should be an interesting election. Though I still think Reeves wins by around 5 points.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The first results tabulated are going to be absolutely brutal for Cameron.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

North Jackson, MS polling station:

Mississippi is reporting "steady" to "heavy" turnout across the state:

https://eu.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/11/07/follow-along-here-as-mississippi-votes-in-the-general-election/71480265007/

It seems to be mostly the Jackson suburbs that are very R, no?

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any explicable reason why Dems seemed to have triaged the Roanoke state senate seat? It was only Trump +0.1% and this is the exact kind of area where Democrats would overperform the presidential top line.

Incumbent John S. Edwards retired - admittedly he is 80 so not surprising - and that took the wind out of their sails very early.

That said, they probably should have invested a bit more. HD-41 isn't the most sensible district, but its seemingly one of those places where the 2020 Dem numbers were abnormal cause of pandemic issues and mail voting allocation. And the candidate this time is pushing hard for the seat which would have knock-on effects on SD-04.

[Gass3268]

Can someone provide context for these? We're getting a ton of ____ is seeing high turnout! with no context of who it would be better for lol

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1721983746692227116

The city is 73% African American and important for Dems that it doesn't drop off considering its in the competitive HD-82 south of Richmond. 

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone provide context for these? We're getting a ton of ____ is seeing high turnout! with no context of who it would be better for lol

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1721983746692227116

Well this one is very clear. Petersburg is a decently-sized almost-uniformly African American city that anchors the expected to be competitive HD-82 in Southside VA. it also anchors the seats democratic votes. We have had plenty of talk about how low-income minority voters struggle to turn out in off cycle contests, which is true. But the asterisk to that statement is if you are willing to spend extraordinary resources, like has happened in the competitive seats, then this can be counteracted.

[MT Treasurer]

I am now one 2pm turnout report from a single KY county, two yard signs from a single PA town, and three tweets from a single user away from changing every single one of my predictions.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I am now one 2pm turnout report from a single KY county, two yard signs from a single PA town, and three tweets from a single user away from changing every single one of my predictions.

This is the best encapsulation of the spirit of Atlas of all time.

[Holmes]

I am now one 2pm turnout report from a single KY county, two yard signs from a single PA town, and three tweets from a single user away from changing every single one of my predictions.

This site is ready to change from Safe Beshear to Safe Cameron when the next turnout report tweet shows decent turnout in some random rural county.

[oldtimer]

I am now one 2pm turnout report from a single KY county, two yard signs from a single PA town, and three tweets from a single user away from changing every single one of my predictions.

Famous last words before vote counting begins :

"I'm actually getting pretty confident of my predictions of Beshear winning, Democrats taking VA, and Republicans taking NJ based on all that."

[Arizona Iced Tea]

How useful are turnout anecdotes anyway?

[Person Man]

I am now one 2pm turnout report from a single KY county, two yard signs from a single PA town, and three tweets from a single user away from changing every single one of my predictions.

I mean, the election happens the way it was supposed to or people out in the field are really that much sneaky and/or fickle than we give them credit for whether they are forgetting to vote, playing hooky to vote, lying about who they are voting for, or simply changing their mind in the voting booth.

My guess is on the whole, nothing too unexpected has happened yet.

[7,052,770]

How useful are turnout anecdotes anyway?

They aren't at all. Check out any election day thread going back 20 years. They're fun though.

[Holmes]

How useful are turnout anecdotes anyway?

Useless unless we have a large sample which almost never happens. Best to just wait until the actual votes start to get counted.

[oldtimer]

How useful are turnout anecdotes anyway?

Well anecdotes are better than polls.

Democrats flooding the airwaves with high turnout reports from colleges in Virginia and low turnout reports in rural Kentucky, tells you something.

The anecdotes from Pennsylvania in favour of Republicans, and the total silence of the lambs from Democrats on New Jersey, also tells you something.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How useful are turnout anecdotes anyway?

Not very.

[Alben Barkley]

Man it will be something if the racism of Kentucky Republican voters really is what saves Beshear.

[oldtimer]

Man it will be something if the racism of Kentucky Republican voters really is what saves Beshear.

If it's less than 2%

If it's more than 2%, then it was a collection of reasons rather than just 1.

[2016]

Whitley Country in Ruby Red Southwestern KY had about 10,000 Votes in 2019 during the Bevin vs Beshear Race and they are way, waaay short of that today