Official 2023 General Election Results Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1721988175306846283

How is that even possible?

Guesstimation; some kind of coding error or broken sensor/reader device within the machine?

Poor calibration of the sensors can do it on touch-screen machines, i.e. it reads a touch at point (X,Y) as one at (X+something,Y+something).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So, only Ohio Ballot Measures will apparently have Exit Polling.

Conclusion = Edison Research are the biggest FRAUDS ever!

Could just be that no media outlets cared to have and pay for any other exit polling conducted.

I mean, I get this stuff costs money, but Ohio of all places, where the measures seem like the most likely outcome of the entire night seems like a weird place to spend money. At least chip in for KY, since the results of that exit poll would be fascinating given there is considerable likely crossover support.

The Ohio numbers are most relevant to the national picture though, which is what the news media ultimately cares about. Remember, exit polls exist not just to predict the outcome, but to show demographic data. The latter is really what the news media cares about when it comes to abortion (as far as marijuana being polled, it's just tagging along for the ride). To the extent that the KY and MS races are nationalized (particularly the former), that will be shown in the topline results.

Virginia elections are far more relevant than Ohio.

I don't think the national networks have ever done exit polling for state legislatures though.

Furthermore the results would be kind of useless since only voters in a few districts matter anyway.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

VaTech is going to pass 2022 turnout.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1722003391604232508?s=20

It's worth noting that 2022 was actually a pretty trivial election in Virginia, because there was no Senate seat up and all state offices and the legislature are in odd years, the only thing on the ballot was the US House and maybe some random county or local offices, and Blacksburg is in a Safe R House district, so hardly much reason to vote then. But this does show that heatcharger's "vibes" were wrong and turnout isn't cratering.

[ajc0918]

Chaz is now saying Lily Franklin may be favored in HD-41. He rates this a Lean GOP district.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1722011687987925150?s=20

[soundchaser]

Chaz is now saying Lily Franklin may be favored in HD-41. He rates this a Lean GOP district.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1722011687987925150?s=20

What Seat would this be for the Dems? Definitely past 52-48, right?

[Alben Barkley]

First polls close in KY in 45 minutes. I honestly can't wait. I might be insane, but I love election nights. I just wish I was able to take off tomorrow...

[NYSforKennedy2024]

I wonder if anyone has freaked out over the free food at VTech yet? IIRC in some states free bottles of water/snacks to voters is a huge controversy and seen as a cheating tactic lol.

[Oryxslayer]

Chaz is now saying Lily Franklin may be favored in HD-41. He rates this a Lean GOP district.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1722011687987925150?s=20

She could still easily lose, or she could win, but I need to get this out of my system. Everyone got collectively gaslit here in terms of the district's partisanship. Everyone knows about how allocating mail votes led to PG county having more Dems in the west and less in the east under the 2020 results breakdowns than there actually were.

But everyone forgot there are other counties where this occurred, not to any single parties benefit, and this included Montgomery county.  The normal polarization between the university in Blacksburg and the rural precincts does not work well with county-wide allocation of VBM. Toss in a county cut and the university being under COVID protocols and 2020 was not a good baseline here. It's still more Republican than the state, but not 10 points more GOP than VA. That is visible from pre-Covid elections.

[jvmh2009]

First polls close in KY in 45 minutes. I honestly can't wait. I might be insane, but I love election nights. I just wish I was able to take off tomorrow...

Same... I am literally.bouncing in my seat. Might be the caffeine but I love elections. And the data from them especially

[ajc0918]

Chaz is now saying Lily Franklin may be favored in HD-41. He rates this a Lean GOP district.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1722011687987925150?s=20

What Seat would this be for the Dems? Definitely past 52-48, right?

According to his forecasts, he has it as 55ish.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

First polls close in KY in 45 minutes. I honestly can't wait. I might be insane, but I love election nights. I just wish I was able to take off tomorrow...

I luckily don’t have class till 2:30 tomorrow

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/GanucheauAdam/status/1722013452116312356?s=20

[Person Man]

Chaz is now saying Lily Franklin may be favored in HD-41. He rates this a Lean GOP district.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1722011687987925150?s=20

What Seat would this be for the Dems? Definitely past 52-48, right?

53 or 54. This is a Trump +1 district, and if they lose here, they’re done.

[politicallefty]

First polls close in KY in 45 minutes. I honestly can't wait. I might be insane, but I love election nights. I just wish I was able to take off tomorrow...

It really is insane that any state has a 6PM poll closing time.

[Respect and Compassion]

The 2023 Kentucky Gubernatorial race is one of the elections I've been most uncertain about in a long time. It's a race winnable for both sides where the range of most likely margins is very wide - in my view, anywhere from Cameron+2 to Beshear+5. This is in contrast to close races where it could go either way but the most likely margins range from R+1 to D+1 (e.g. how I'd say it was for Romney vs Obama in Florida back in 2012). Also in contrast to races where the range of most likely margins is wide, but the outcome isn't in doubt (e.g. the 2021 NYC Mayoral race)

[jvmh2009]

First polls close in KY in 45 minutes. I honestly can't wait. I might be insane, but I love election nights. I just wish I was able to take off tomorrow...

It really is insane that any state has a 6PM poll closing time.

That's how they keep the working class down.

[Gass3268]

Exit poll looks very good for the pro-choice side in Ohio.

[Nyvin]

Chaz is now saying Lily Franklin may be favored in HD-41. He rates this a Lean GOP district.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1722011687987925150?s=20

If Republicans lose that district then it's a disaster night for them,  this is also a good chunk of the area that makes up SD-4.

[Birdish]

First polls close in KY in 45 minutes. I honestly can't wait. I might be insane, but I love election nights. I just wish I was able to take off tomorrow...

It really is insane that any state has a 6PM poll closing time.

That's how they keep the working class down.

I remember someone once explaining to me that the early poll closing time had something to do with Coal Miners getting to vote. Although I can't remember the entire context as to why.

[Splash]

These exit polls will get adjusted as real vote data comes in but fwiw:

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1722013435024576716

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/GanucheauAdam/status/1722013452116312356?s=20

Just FYI for all involved, these type of lawsuits are very common and almost in-and-out. Some judges are even on standby for them. They happen cause there is no way to extend hours, but that is the obvious solution to all involved. So there needs to be a emergency court order.

Last year a big one was all of Harris county got an extra hour cause of widespread delays in opening polling locations distant from Houston city center and government offices.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/rickklein/status/1722013809068445976

Issue 1 is winning in a landslide. Likely to see good results for Issue 2 as well.

[It’s so Joever]

Alright did my usual “Snapmaps” anecdotal analysis. For VA the data is mixed, for KY it does appear there is possibly a slight advantage in more Beshear friendly areas, and for MS there seems to be a good turnout overall with the exception of Jackson and the Gulf Coast. Read into this how you will.

Anything on New Jersey ?

So little data I just scrapped it. That may imply low turnout, or maybe Jerseyites are ashamed of their voting stickers, who knows…

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Chaz is now saying Lily Franklin may be favored in HD-41. He rates this a Lean GOP district.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1722011687987925150?s=20

What Seat would this be for the Dems? Definitely past 52-48, right?

It's a Trump+1 seat but super polarized, Blacksburg of course is super-D and the rest of it is super-R rural countryside. So if the Democrats win it probably means rural turnout dipped and Blacksburg turnout was solid. The latter seems to be true so far. If that happens it means the Democrats are probably favored for control because it looks like all of the swing seats are ones where the Republicans rely on very Republican rural areas to counter D areas, but it's also not clear if turnout patterns in the mountainous part of western Virginia will be the same as turnout in the rest of rural Virginia.

[MT Treasurer]

My last piece of advice before results come in: Always keep things in perspective, never just look at the binary outcome (D/R win).

If Pressley and Beshear both lose by 1, for instance, they still massively overperformed the D baseline in their states.

Similarly, if VA Republicans lose a bunch of tipping-point races by the skin of their teeth, it’s far from a devastating showing for them in a state that leans very much to the left.