What is more likely to happen in Florida?

[2016]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I agree with the county map except for Duval and I'm 50/50 on Miami Dade. It could really do it's own thing.

The notion by riverwalk that Trump got so close in Dade County because of Cuban COVID backslash is just blatantly false.

Let's be honest: The reason Trump cut the almost 300,000 margin in Dade to 86,000+ by 2020 wasn't a Cuban COVID Backslash, it was because Trump, the RNC and the Florida Republican Party "Relentlessly" hammered Biden and D's to be Socialists and guess what: It worked.

Biden now has a Record and what he did between 2021 and 2023 when he had all 3 branches of Govtm with the New Green Deal/Climate Change Crap/Inflation Reduction Act was pure disaster particularly for the South Florida Hispanics. Thank God that they had DeSantis instead of Gillum otherwise Florida would have rolled off the deep end.

[Progressive Pessimist]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I agree with the county map except for Duval and I'm 50/50 on Miami Dade. It could really do it's own thing.

The notion by riverwalk that Trump got so close in Dade County because of Cuban COVID backslash is just blatantly false.

Let's be honest: The reason Trump cut the almost 300,000 margin in Dade to 86,000+ by 2020 wasn't a Cuban COVID Backslash, it was because Trump, the RNC and the Florida Republican Party "Relentlessly" hammered Biden and D's to be Socialists and guess what: It worked.

Biden now has a Record and what he did between 2021 and 2023 when he had all 3 branches of Govtm with the New Green Deal/Climate Change Crap/Inflation Reduction Act was pure disaster particularly for the South Florida Hispanics. Thank God that they had DeSantis instead of Gillum otherwise Florida would have rolled off the deep end.

The Green New Deal didn't happen.

[Devils30]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I agree with the county map except for Duval and I'm 50/50 on Miami Dade. It could really do it's own thing.

The notion by riverwalk that Trump got so close in Dade County because of Cuban COVID backslash is just blatantly false.

Let's be honest: The reason Trump cut the almost 300,000 margin in Dade to 86,000+ by 2020 wasn't a Cuban COVID Backslash, it was because Trump, the RNC and the Florida Republican Party "Relentlessly" hammered Biden and D's to be Socialists and guess what: It worked.

Biden now has a Record and what he did between 2021 and 2023 when he had all 3 branches of Govtm with the New Green Deal/Climate Change Crap/Inflation Reduction Act was pure disaster particularly for the South Florida Hispanics. Thank God that they had DeSantis instead of Gillum otherwise Florida would have rolled off the deep end.

The Green New Deal never passed, what did pass was a watered down and very moderate bill. The squad and Democratic socialists did untold damage to Florida Dems and will do even bigger damage to Dems nationwide if the party does not extinguish this pro-Hamas garbage.

Duval is culturally more like the rest of the south than Miami or Tampa. I would compare its trends more to Greensboro, Macon, Savannah, Charlotte and is clearly trending D. Dems won the mayor election earlier this year by same as Biden's +4 margin.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I agree with the county map except for Duval and I'm 50/50 on Miami Dade. It could really do it's own thing.

The notion by riverwalk that Trump got so close in Dade County because of Cuban COVID backslash is just blatantly false.

Let's be honest: The reason Trump cut the almost 300,000 margin in Dade to 86,000+ by 2020 wasn't a Cuban COVID Backslash, it was because Trump, the RNC and the Florida Republican Party "Relentlessly" hammered Biden and D's to be Socialists and guess what: It worked.

Biden now has a Record and what he did between 2021 and 2023 when he had all 3 branches of Govtm with the New Green Deal/Climate Change Crap/Inflation Reduction Act was pure disaster particularly for the South Florida Hispanics. Thank God that they had DeSantis instead of Gillum otherwise Florida would have rolled off the deep end.

The Green New Deal never passed, what did pass was a watered down and very moderate bill. The squad and Democratic socialists did untold damage to Florida Dems and will do even bigger damage to Dems nationwide if the party does not extinguish this pro-Hamas garbage.

Duval is culturally more like the rest of the south than Miami or Tampa. I would compare its trends more to Greensboro, Macon, Savannah, Charlotte and is clearly trending D. Dems won the mayor election earlier this year by same as Biden's +4 margin.

It wasn’t the squad mostly, it was COVID that damaged Democrats in Florida. I doubt the Israel conflict will even matter unless a wider Middle East war breaks out somehow and gas rises to $7.

The South seems to be snapping back post-Dobbs.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jacksonville trend right while Florida as a whole trends left.

[2016]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I agree with the county map except for Duval and I'm 50/50 on Miami Dade. It could really do it's own thing.

The notion by riverwalk that Trump got so close in Dade County because of Cuban COVID backslash is just blatantly false.

Let's be honest: The reason Trump cut the almost 300,000 margin in Dade to 86,000+ by 2020 wasn't a Cuban COVID Backslash, it was because Trump, the RNC and the Florida Republican Party "Relentlessly" hammered Biden and D's to be Socialists and guess what: It worked.

Biden now has a Record and what he did between 2021 and 2023 when he had all 3 branches of Govtm with the New Green Deal/Climate Change Crap/Inflation Reduction Act was pure disaster particularly for the South Florida Hispanics. Thank God that they had DeSantis instead of Gillum otherwise Florida would have rolled off the deep end.

The Green New Deal never passed, what did pass was a watered down and very moderate bill. The squad and Democratic socialists did untold damage to Florida Dems and will do even bigger damage to Dems nationwide if the party does not extinguish this pro-Hamas garbage.

Duval is culturally more like the rest of the south than Miami or Tampa. I would compare its trends more to Greensboro, Macon, Savannah, Charlotte and is clearly trending D. Dems won the mayor election earlier this year by same as Biden's +4 margin.

Even that watered down Bill hurt Hispanics in South Florida.
riverwalk just makes blatantly stupid accusations. While COVID may have hurt D's somewhat Trump, the RNC and the FL GOP relentless attacks labelling Biden as a socialist did the trick and damage in Miami-Dade.

Keep in mind while Dade County is 69 % Hispanic as a whole according to the 2020 Census only 40 % are Cubans. You don't get these Numbers Trump did in 2020 by just winning Cubans. Trump & GOP clearly made inroads in Dade County with other Hispanics like Nicaraguans, Colombians, Venezuelans, etc. and that continued into 2022.

[Devils30]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I actually think Duval and Seminole stay blue. Both are trending Democratic and have more in common with suburban counties in other states than South Florida. Pinellas might stay blue because it is more like a WI PA MI big urban wwc heavy county than most Florida ones and growth is lower than rest of state, meaning fewer red transplants moving in. Biden for all the Ds faults with the WWC doesn’t seem terribly likely to slip much further with this group.

But it’s easy to get Trump the 6-9% win by flipping Miami-Dade red and running up numbers better in red transplant areas like Sarasota, Volusia, Brevard. Might also lose Broward and Palm Beach by less, Biden’s probably going to stop the bleeding a bit with Jewish Dems but these places are (slowly) trending R.

The counties you mentioned are full of college educated old whites. Why would you assume they swing further R? Flipping Miami-Dade only adds 0.7 to Trump’s margins and is more than cancelled out with the in the other urban counties you mentioned, and the Cuban thaw backlash/COVID are done now.

What do you think the demographic breakdown is for Trump to win FL by 9? Trump wins Hispanics by 20 and improves with college educated whites?

Trump lost Hispanics in FL 52-47 in 2020. He lost Puerto Ricans by over 50 Points in 2020. That's just not going to happen in 2024. I'll think he'll win the Hispanic Vote in FL this time.

Dade's Hispanic vote is so different from NV, AZ, TX Hispanic vote that is mostly of Mexican decent and much more Dem friendly. Of course TX Hispanics include a lot of 4th+ generation who are more conservative so Dems benefit less than in NV/AZ. Dade does its own thing, Trump could win it by 10 in a huge electoral vote loss or lose it by 10 and be competitive nationally. I would bet Dade is only 0-3% either way in 2024 though.

But I think Biden will win again with NV/AZ/GA/WI/MI/PA staying blue in an exact 2020 repeat. Republicans might be better losing 2024, they can face a weakened Kamala or get lucky if Dems pick an anti-Israel whacko. Of course the Dems could pick a Whitmer, Shapiro and really get it right if they want.

[jamestroll]

As a Moderate, I believe that Biden will Win Miami Dade County, and LOSE Florida as a whole.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Duval, Miami-Dade, and maybe Seminole are pure tossups.

Every other county votes how it did in the 2022 Senate election (outside of Hillsborough and Osceola-which will both still be much closer than in 2020).

[Devils30]

Duval, Miami-Dade, and maybe Seminole are pure tossups.

Every other county votes how it did in the 2022 Senate election (outside of Hillsborough and Osceola-which will both still be much closer than in 2020).

I think Duval is Lean D, it was 7-8% to the left of the state in 2020 and 2022 and it would not shock me if its 10-12% left of the state in 2024.

[EastwoodS]

Duval, Miami-Dade, and maybe Seminole are pure tossups.

Every other county votes how it did in the 2022 Senate election (outside of Hillsborough and Osceola-which will both still be much closer than in 2020).

I think Duval is Lean D, it was 7-8% to the left of the state in 2020 and 2022 and it would not shock me if its 10-12% left of the state in 2024.

Duval is more like an urban Georgia/ mid Atlantic City to me that just happens to be in Florida. So I agree

[2016]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I actually think Duval and Seminole stay blue. Both are trending Democratic and have more in common with suburban counties in other states than South Florida. Pinellas might stay blue because it is more like a WI PA MI big urban wwc heavy county than most Florida ones and growth is lower than rest of state, meaning fewer red transplants moving in. Biden for all the Ds faults with the WWC doesn’t seem terribly likely to slip much further with this group.

But it’s easy to get Trump the 6-9% win by flipping Miami-Dade red and running up numbers better in red transplant areas like Sarasota, Volusia, Brevard. Might also lose Broward and Palm Beach by less, Biden’s probably going to stop the bleeding a bit with Jewish Dems but these places are (slowly) trending R.

The counties you mentioned are full of college educated old whites. Why would you assume they swing further R? Flipping Miami-Dade only adds 0.7 to Trump’s margins and is more than cancelled out with the in the other urban counties you mentioned, and the Cuban thaw backlash/COVID are done now.

What do you think the demographic breakdown is for Trump to win FL by 9? Trump wins Hispanics by 20 and improves with college educated whites?

Trump lost Hispanics in FL 52-47 in 2020. He lost Puerto Ricans by over 50 Points in 2020. That's just not going to happen in 2024. I'll think he'll win the Hispanic Vote in FL this time.

Dade's Hispanic vote is so different from NV, AZ, TX Hispanic vote that is mostly of Mexican decent and much more Dem friendly. Of course TX Hispanics include a lot of 4th+ generation who are more conservative so Dems benefit less than in NV/AZ. Dade does its own thing, Trump could win it by 10 in a huge electoral vote loss or lose it by 10 and be competitive nationally. I would bet Dade is only 0-3% either way in 2024 though.

But I think Biden will win again with NV/AZ/GA/WI/MI/PA staying blue in an exact 2020 repeat. Republicans might be better losing 2024, they can face a weakened Kamala or get lucky if Dems pick an anti-Israel whacko. Of course the Dems could pick a Whitmer, Shapiro and really get it right if they want.

I am curious what happens in Counties like Yuma County (AZ) or the Rio Grande Valley in TX. If the Southern Border Crisis worsens that could be at least the ballgame for Biden in TX.
Trump actually increased his margin in Yuma County from 2016 to 2020. We'll see if that happens again.

[Devils30]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I actually think Duval and Seminole stay blue. Both are trending Democratic and have more in common with suburban counties in other states than South Florida. Pinellas might stay blue because it is more like a WI PA MI big urban wwc heavy county than most Florida ones and growth is lower than rest of state, meaning fewer red transplants moving in. Biden for all the Ds faults with the WWC doesn’t seem terribly likely to slip much further with this group.

But it’s easy to get Trump the 6-9% win by flipping Miami-Dade red and running up numbers better in red transplant areas like Sarasota, Volusia, Brevard. Might also lose Broward and Palm Beach by less, Biden’s probably going to stop the bleeding a bit with Jewish Dems but these places are (slowly) trending R.

The counties you mentioned are full of college educated old whites. Why would you assume they swing further R? Flipping Miami-Dade only adds 0.7 to Trump’s margins and is more than cancelled out with the in the other urban counties you mentioned, and the Cuban thaw backlash/COVID are done now.

What do you think the demographic breakdown is for Trump to win FL by 9? Trump wins Hispanics by 20 and improves with college educated whites?

Trump lost Hispanics in FL 52-47 in 2020. He lost Puerto Ricans by over 50 Points in 2020. That's just not going to happen in 2024. I'll think he'll win the Hispanic Vote in FL this time.

Dade's Hispanic vote is so different from NV, AZ, TX Hispanic vote that is mostly of Mexican decent and much more Dem friendly. Of course TX Hispanics include a lot of 4th+ generation who are more conservative so Dems benefit less than in NV/AZ. Dade does its own thing, Trump could win it by 10 in a huge electoral vote loss or lose it by 10 and be competitive nationally. I would bet Dade is only 0-3% either way in 2024 though.

But I think Biden will win again with NV/AZ/GA/WI/MI/PA staying blue in an exact 2020 repeat. Republicans might be better losing 2024, they can face a weakened Kamala or get lucky if Dems pick an anti-Israel whacko. Of course the Dems could pick a Whitmer, Shapiro and really get it right if they want.

I am curious what happens in Counties like Yuma County (AZ) or the Rio Grande Valley in TX. If the Southern Border Crisis worsens that could be at least the ballgame for Biden in TX.
Trump actually increased his margin in Yuma County from 2016 to 2020. We'll see if that happens again.

I think Biden can do worse in Yuma and it won't matter at all if he's running ahead of 2020 in Maricopa, Pima. Places like Scottsdale have plenty of room for Dem growth when you look at education. AZ Dems are good moderates without a trace of the Democratic Socialists.

[wnwnwn]

Venezuelan inmigrants seem mostly right leaning around the world. Naturalized venezuelans seem to only become more in the USA, specially in Florida. Between this, other trends and the current situation of the Florida Democratic Party, its nearly safe to say that the state will trend right. Also, the federal level Democratic Party will probably focus on the Trump2016-Biden2020 states, the senate race on Ohio and North Carolina for 2024.
The Biden campaing likely won't spend money on Florida unless they are polling decently there, so Trump may win that state by 11% or more following all trends.
Maybe not related, but I feel like democrats and american mainstream media focus too much on caribbeans and mexican americans. I see republicans making gains with latinos of "palta" county origin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's an R 3 state not R10 state, DeSantis won by 20 due to IAN you see he is losing the nomination to Trump he doesn't have 60 Approval , most of the Gov races were blowout anyways

[2016]

@Devils30 & @EastwoodS

The Cook Report similarly to Sabato has FLORIDA as Likely R in its new Electoral College Ratings published today.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Electoral College 2024 based on the Cook Report Ratings

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

@Devils30 & @EastwoodS

The Cook Report similarly to Sabato has FLORIDA as Likely R in its new Electoral College Ratings published today.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Electoral College 2024 based on the Cook Report Ratings

Waves don't happen a yr prior to Eday OH is likely gone

[Progressive Pessimist]

@Devils30 & @EastwoodS

The Cook Report similarly to Sabato has FLORIDA as Likely R in its new Electoral College Ratings published today.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Electoral College 2024 based on the Cook Report Ratings

I concur.

[Devils30]

@Devils30 & @EastwoodS

The Cook Report similarly to Sabato has FLORIDA as Likely R in its new Electoral College Ratings published today.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Electoral College 2024 based on the Cook Report Ratings

Trump is going to win FL, it really looks like it is moving so far to the right it is simply uncompetitive. Biden has a better shot to win TX but I would only put that at around 20% or so. I would probably have NC at tossup/tilt R but demographics could give Biden a small win (will not be tipping point state).

[2016]

@Devils30 & @EastwoodS

The Cook Report similarly to Sabato has FLORIDA as Likely R in its new Electoral College Ratings published today.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Electoral College 2024 based on the Cook Report Ratings

Trump is going to win FL, it really looks like it is moving so far to the right it is simply uncompetitive. Biden has a better shot to win TX but I would only put that at around 20% or so. I would probably have NC at tossup/tilt R but demographics could give Biden a small win (will not be tipping point state).

Do you think Florida could be called at the closing of the Polls in 2024. The last time the Networks called FL at Poll Closing Time during a Presidential Race was in 1996 when Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole.

[Devils30]

@Devils30 & @EastwoodS

The Cook Report similarly to Sabato has FLORIDA as Likely R in its new Electoral College Ratings published today.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Electoral College 2024 based on the Cook Report Ratings

Trump is going to win FL, it really looks like it is moving so far to the right it is simply uncompetitive. Biden has a better shot to win TX but I would only put that at around 20% or so. I would probably have NC at tossup/tilt R but demographics could give Biden a small win (will not be tipping point state).

Do you think Florida could be called at the closing of the Polls in 2024. The last time the Networks called FL at Poll Closing Time during a Presidential Race was in 1996 when Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole.

They can't call Florida by 7 pm since polls are open in the panhandle until 8 pm eastern but yes, at 8 I think they might be able to call FL this year. It counts fast and all of us who know numbers called it for Trump in 2020 by 7:45 pm or so.

[2016]

@Devils30 & @EastwoodS

The Cook Report similarly to Sabato has FLORIDA as Likely R in its new Electoral College Ratings published today.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Electoral College 2024 based on the Cook Report Ratings

Trump is going to win FL, it really looks like it is moving so far to the right it is simply uncompetitive. Biden has a better shot to win TX but I would only put that at around 20% or so. I would probably have NC at tossup/tilt R but demographics could give Biden a small win (will not be tipping point state).

Do you think Florida could be called at the closing of the Polls in 2024. The last time the Networks called FL at Poll Closing Time during a Presidential Race was in 1996 when Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole.

They can't call Florida by 7 pm since polls are open in the panhandle until 8 pm eastern but yes, at 8 I think they might be able to call FL this year. It counts fast and all of us who know numbers called it for Trump in 2020 by 7:45 pm or so.

I know but the Networks waited until shortly after 11pm (FOX NEWS) to call Florida for Trump. That was the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen having watched FL Returns over Decades.
I knew Trump would win FL when Miami came in and Trump was within 100K of Biden.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

@Devils30 & @EastwoodS

The Cook Report similarly to Sabato has FLORIDA as Likely R in its new Electoral College Ratings published today.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Electoral College 2024 based on the Cook Report Ratings

Trump is going to win FL, it really looks like it is moving so far to the right it is simply uncompetitive. Biden has a better shot to win TX but I would only put that at around 20% or so. I would probably have NC at tossup/tilt R but demographics could give Biden a small win (will not be tipping point state).

Do you think Florida could be called at the closing of the Polls in 2024. The last time the Networks called FL at Poll Closing Time during a Presidential Race was in 1996 when Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole.

They can't call Florida by 7 pm since polls are open in the panhandle until 8 pm eastern but yes, at 8 I think they might be able to call FL this year. It counts fast and all of us who know numbers called it for Trump in 2020 by 7:45 pm or so.

I know but the Networks waited until shortly after 11pm (FOX NEWS) to call Florida for Trump. That was the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen having watched FL Returns over Decades.
I knew Trump would win FL when Miami came in and Trump was within 100K of Biden.

Trump could lose Miami-Dade by only 100k this time, or win a majority of Hispanics, and still lose statewide. On the other hand, he probably has to win Hispanics by 20%, improve with blacks by 10%, and improve with college educated whites to win Florida by 10%, all while abortion is on the ballot.