What is more likely to happen in Florida?

[EastwoodS]

Riverwalk, are you sure you aren’t at least a little biased with your FL predictions because the FL Democrats are the only non-GOP candidates you’ve endorsed in your signature?

he just wants to be edgy and trendy.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Riverwalk, are you sure you aren’t at least a little biased with your FL predictions because the FL Democrats are the only non-GOP candidates you’ve endorsed in your signature?

he just wants to be edgy and trendy.

The funny thing is that your own predictions imply Florida trending left relative to the popular vote from 7.8 to the right of the nation to 6.5 to the right of the nation (though I doubt Trump wins the PV by 1 with the state margins you suggest unless California is D +15).

[EastwoodS]

Riverwalk, are you sure you aren’t at least a little biased with your FL predictions because the FL Democrats are the only non-GOP candidates you’ve endorsed in your signature?

he just wants to be edgy and trendy.

The funny thing is that your own predictions imply Florida trending left relative to the popular vote from 7.8 to the right of the nation to 6.5 to the right of the nation (though I doubt Trump wins the PV by 1 with the state margins you suggest unless California is D +15).

oh, so, now you acknowledge Fl is 8 points right of the nation.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Riverwalk, are you sure you aren’t at least a little biased with your FL predictions because the FL Democrats are the only non-GOP candidates you’ve endorsed in your signature?

he just wants to be edgy and trendy.

The funny thing is that your own predictions imply Florida trending left relative to the popular vote from 7.8 to the right of the nation to 6.5 to the right of the nation (though I doubt Trump wins the PV by 1 with the state margins you suggest unless California is D +15).

oh, so, now you acknowledge Fl is 8 points right of the nation.

It was in 2020. I think it will be around 3 (as in 2016) or maybe less in 2024 if California and New York shift hard right.

[EastwoodS]

Riverwalk, are you sure you aren’t at least a little biased with your FL predictions because the FL Democrats are the only non-GOP candidates you’ve endorsed in your signature?

he just wants to be edgy and trendy.

The funny thing is that your own predictions imply Florida trending left relative to the popular vote from 7.8 to the right of the nation to 6.5 to the right of the nation (though I doubt Trump wins the PV by 1 with the state margins you suggest unless California is D +15).

oh, so, now you acknowledge Fl is 8 points right of the nation.

It was in 2020. I think it will be around 3 or maybe less in 2024.

For made up reasons in your head, of course

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Riverwalk, are you sure you aren’t at least a little biased with your FL predictions because the FL Democrats are the only non-GOP candidates you’ve endorsed in your signature?

he just wants to be edgy and trendy.

The funny thing is that your own predictions imply Florida trending left relative to the popular vote from 7.8 to the right of the nation to 6.5 to the right of the nation (though I doubt Trump wins the PV by 1 with the state margins you suggest unless California is D +15).

oh, so, now you acknowledge Fl is 8 points right of the nation.

It was in 2020. I think it will be around 3 or maybe less in 2024.

For made up reasons in your head, of course

It was 3 and trending left pre-COVID. COVID is over as an issue and replaced with abortion as an issue. Democrats also have tons of room to grow with college+ whites.

[EastwoodS]

Riverwalk, are you sure you aren’t at least a little biased with your FL predictions because the FL Democrats are the only non-GOP candidates you’ve endorsed in your signature?

he just wants to be edgy and trendy.

The funny thing is that your own predictions imply Florida trending left relative to the popular vote from 7.8 to the right of the nation to 6.5 to the right of the nation (though I doubt Trump wins the PV by 1 with the state margins you suggest unless California is D +15).

oh, so, now you acknowledge Fl is 8 points right of the nation.

It was in 2020. I think it will be around 3 or maybe less in 2024.

For made up reasons in your head, of course

It was 3 pre-COVID.

And I'm confident in the fact that Florida is vey different than pre-2020.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Riverwalk, are you sure you aren’t at least a little biased with your FL predictions because the FL Democrats are the only non-GOP candidates you’ve endorsed in your signature?

he just wants to be edgy and trendy.

The funny thing is that your own predictions imply Florida trending left relative to the popular vote from 7.8 to the right of the nation to 6.5 to the right of the nation (though I doubt Trump wins the PV by 1 with the state margins you suggest unless California is D +15).

oh, so, now you acknowledge Fl is 8 points right of the nation.

It was in 2020. I think it will be around 3 or maybe less in 2024.

For made up reasons in your head, of course

It was 3 pre-COVID.

And I'm confident in the fact that Florida is vey different than pre-2020.

Why do you have it trending left relative to the popular vote then?

[EastwoodS]

Riverwalk, are you sure you aren’t at least a little biased with your FL predictions because the FL Democrats are the only non-GOP candidates you’ve endorsed in your signature?

he just wants to be edgy and trendy.

The funny thing is that your own predictions imply Florida trending left relative to the popular vote from 7.8 to the right of the nation to 6.5 to the right of the nation (though I doubt Trump wins the PV by 1 with the state margins you suggest unless California is D +15).

oh, so, now you acknowledge Fl is 8 points right of the nation.

It was in 2020. I think it will be around 3 or maybe less in 2024.

For made up reasons in your head, of course

It was 3 pre-COVID.

And I'm confident in the fact that Florida is vey different than pre-2020.

Why do you have it trending left relative to the popular vote then?

I think Trump winning the PV is more me pushing it than anything.

[Devils30]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

I agree Trump is likely winning FL by at least 6 if not 8-9. One thing FL becoming redder does is reduce the EC/PV gap with the state becoming a red vote sink. Biden will not waste money here this time either, his dollars are going to MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

I doubt he’s wasting money in Georgia either. Polls show Trump up by 5 there on average.

Please...

Just because polls aren’t what you want them to be doesn’t mean that they are wrong. Biden’s path to victory probably involves holding PA, MI, AZ, NV.

I don't see how the hell Biden can ever win GA! Not like he won it in 2020 or the Dems won any senate races there in 2021-2022. With 10% Dem trending counties each cycle around Atlanta, surely the state is unwinnable because the blacks love Trump and he will get a 17 point swing right in the black belt.

I am close to just putting this idiot on ignore.

Democrats barely won the first round with the best possible incumbent versus someone who beat up his wife, while every other race had the Republican win between 5 to 9. And Atlanta only saw 2 point swings, not 10. Miami-Dade also saw 7 point left swings every cycle from 2004 to 2016.

Louisiana and every 2022 result across many different states, as well as polling shows the black belt rural counties shifting hard right. And you don’t get to dismiss current Georgia polling. Unlike the rest of the states, Georgia polls were accurate within 1 point.

2 point swings? Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry, Forsyth, Rockdale were all 10+ the last 2 cycles. And don't compare an open primary in Louisiana where the Dem had no money, both parties knew the race was over to project the presidential race. That's like me saying Shapiro winning PA by 15 means the state is out of play in 2024.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

I agree Trump is likely winning FL by at least 6 if not 8-9. One thing FL becoming redder does is reduce the EC/PV gap with the state becoming a red vote sink. Biden will not waste money here this time either, his dollars are going to MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

I doubt he’s wasting money in Georgia either. Polls show Trump up by 5 there on average.

Please...

Just because polls aren’t what you want them to be doesn’t mean that they are wrong. Biden’s path to victory probably involves holding PA, MI, AZ, NV.

I don't see how the hell Biden can ever win GA! Not like he won it in 2020 or the Dems won any senate races there in 2021-2022. With 10% Dem trending counties each cycle around Atlanta, surely the state is unwinnable because the blacks love Trump and he will get a 17 point swing right in the black belt.

I am close to just putting this idiot on ignore.

Democrats barely won the first round with the best possible incumbent versus someone who beat up his wife, while every other race had the Republican win between 5 to 9. And Atlanta only saw 2 point swings, not 10. Miami-Dade also saw 7 point left swings every cycle from 2004 to 2016.

Louisiana and every 2022 result across many different states, as well as polling shows the black belt rural counties shifting hard right. And you don’t get to dismiss current Georgia polling. Unlike the rest of the states, Georgia polls were accurate within 1 point.

2 point swings? Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry, Forsyth, Rockdale were all 10+ the last 2 cycles. And don't compare an open primary in Louisiana where the Dem had no money, both parties knew the race was over to project the presidential race. That's like me saying Shapiro winning PA by 15 means the state is out of play in 2024.

2 points from 2020 to 2022 Senate first round(while trending right by 6+ in every other race). A lot of white working class places in Michigan had 20+ swings for 2 cycles in a row then didn’t swing in 2020. Similarly Miami made 7 point left swings 4 cycles in a row before 2020.

Why do you think Trump does 7 points worse in Atlanta when Walker barely did worse in his first round?

[Devils30]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

I agree Trump is likely winning FL by at least 6 if not 8-9. One thing FL becoming redder does is reduce the EC/PV gap with the state becoming a red vote sink. Biden will not waste money here this time either, his dollars are going to MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

I doubt he’s wasting money in Georgia either. Polls show Trump up by 5 there on average.

Please...

Just because polls aren’t what you want them to be doesn’t mean that they are wrong. Biden’s path to victory probably involves holding PA, MI, AZ, NV.

I don't see how the hell Biden can ever win GA! Not like he won it in 2020 or the Dems won any senate races there in 2021-2022. With 10% Dem trending counties each cycle around Atlanta, surely the state is unwinnable because the blacks love Trump and he will get a 17 point swing right in the black belt.

I am close to just putting this idiot on ignore.

Democrats barely won the first round with the best possible incumbent versus someone who beat up his wife, while every other race had the Republican win between 5 to 9. And Atlanta only saw 2 point swings, not 10. Miami-Dade also saw 7 point left swings every cycle from 2004 to 2016.

Louisiana and every 2022 result across many different states, as well as polling shows the black belt rural counties shifting hard right. And you don’t get to dismiss current Georgia polling. Unlike the rest of the states, Georgia polls were accurate within 1 point.

2 point swings? Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry, Forsyth, Rockdale were all 10+ the last 2 cycles. And don't compare an open primary in Louisiana where the Dem had no money, both parties knew the race was over to project the presidential race. That's like me saying Shapiro winning PA by 15 means the state is out of play in 2024.

2 points from 2020 to 2022 Senate first round(while trending right by 6+ in every other race). A lot of white working class places in Michigan had 20+ swings for 2 cycles in a row then didn’t swing in 2020. Similarly Miami made 7 point left swings 4 cycles in a row before 2020.

Why do you think Trump does 7 points worse in Atlanta when Walker barely did worse in his first round?

Fulton isn't just Atlanta, has a lot of northern suburbs that are still getting bluer. And if these counties got 2% bluer in 2022 compared to 2020 while the country got 5% redder, that is a 7% Democratic TREND.

Don't compare anything to Miami-Dade, the Cuban/South American population is so unique and a major outlier.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

I agree Trump is likely winning FL by at least 6 if not 8-9. One thing FL becoming redder does is reduce the EC/PV gap with the state becoming a red vote sink. Biden will not waste money here this time either, his dollars are going to MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

I doubt he’s wasting money in Georgia either. Polls show Trump up by 5 there on average.

Please...

Just because polls aren’t what you want them to be doesn’t mean that they are wrong. Biden’s path to victory probably involves holding PA, MI, AZ, NV.

I don't see how the hell Biden can ever win GA! Not like he won it in 2020 or the Dems won any senate races there in 2021-2022. With 10% Dem trending counties each cycle around Atlanta, surely the state is unwinnable because the blacks love Trump and he will get a 17 point swing right in the black belt.

I am close to just putting this idiot on ignore.

Democrats barely won the first round with the best possible incumbent versus someone who beat up his wife, while every other race had the Republican win between 5 to 9. And Atlanta only saw 2 point swings, not 10. Miami-Dade also saw 7 point left swings every cycle from 2004 to 2016.

Louisiana and every 2022 result across many different states, as well as polling shows the black belt rural counties shifting hard right. And you don’t get to dismiss current Georgia polling. Unlike the rest of the states, Georgia polls were accurate within 1 point.

2 point swings? Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry, Forsyth, Rockdale were all 10+ the last 2 cycles. And don't compare an open primary in Louisiana where the Dem had no money, both parties knew the race was over to project the presidential race. That's like me saying Shapiro winning PA by 15 means the state is out of play in 2024.

2 points from 2020 to 2022 Senate first round(while trending right by 6+ in every other race). A lot of white working class places in Michigan had 20+ swings for 2 cycles in a row then didn’t swing in 2020. Similarly Miami made 7 point left swings 4 cycles in a row before 2020.

Why do you think Trump does 7 points worse in Atlanta when Walker barely did worse in his first round?

Fulton isn't just Atlanta, has a lot of northern suburbs that are still getting bluer. And if these counties got 2% bluer in 2022 compared to 2020 while the country got 5% redder, that is a 7% Democratic TREND.

Don't compare anything to Miami-Dade, the Cuban/South American population is so unique and a major outlier.

The Senate races in battlegrounds (NC, GA, AZ, WI, PA) trended 1% bluer compared to 2020 in average, so it’s only a 1% trend. If we use the House vote (where the country got 5% redder), Forsyth was like R +42 for example.

I agree Miami is a bad comparison - Houston is probably a better one. Big trend from 2012 to 2016 then stagnant in 2020 due to Hispanics from COVID (Atlanta this time black voters from Dobbs).

[2016]

Riverwalk, are you sure you aren’t at least a little biased with your FL predictions because the FL Democrats are the only non-GOP candidates you’ve endorsed in your signature?

he just wants to be edgy and trendy.

The funny thing is that your own predictions imply Florida trending left relative to the popular vote from 7.8 to the right of the nation to 6.5 to the right of the nation (though I doubt Trump wins the PV by 1 with the state margins you suggest unless California is D +15).

oh, so, now you acknowledge Fl is 8 points right of the nation.

Florida is 8 Points right to the Nation. I love you Eastwood & Devils as well putting riverwalk back his basement with his obscure & preposterous Predictions.
Matthew Isbell & Steve Schale, both Democrats btw, say FL is gone for D's in 2024 and 2026 as well and these guys would not say that lightly as they have decades of experience in the Sunshine State. They know their State very well!

[2016]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

.

Yea FL is so red Cook R 3 state and Deegan won and Powell is up one on Facebook, this isn't 22 R 20 state, Cook has it R 3 it's wave insurance

Just because Rs outnumber Ds that doesn't mean Rs outnumbered us in MS and KY and MT and Tester, Beshear, and PRESLEY are gonna win, it just means Rs dominate the state and Fed Legislature

Powell is up 1 on Facebook and behind 45/41 to Scott not Rubio

[2016]

And Sabato has Florida as Likely R in 2024

It's not an R+3 State anymore Olowakandi, it's a R+8 State now.

[seskoog]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

Trump might flip Hillsborough as well.

[MT Treasurer]

And Sabato has Florida as Likely R in 2024

It's not an R+3 State anymore Olowakandi, it's a R+8 State now.

IA as anything other than Safe R and PA/MI in the same category as NH discredits this map.

[2016]

@seskoog,
You think he can carry Hillsborough? That will be tough but then D's losing Voters even in blueish Counties in FL like H'Borough, Orange and Dade.

[Devils30]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I actually think Duval and Seminole stay blue. Both are trending Democratic and have more in common with suburban counties in other states than South Florida. Pinellas might stay blue because it is more like a WI PA MI big urban wwc heavy county than most Florida ones and growth is lower than rest of state, meaning fewer red transplants moving in. Biden for all the Ds faults with the WWC doesn’t seem terribly likely to slip much further with this group.

But it’s easy to get Trump the 6-9% win by flipping Miami-Dade red and running up numbers better in red transplant areas like Sarasota, Volusia, Brevard. Might also lose Broward and Palm Beach by less, Biden’s probably going to stop the bleeding a bit with Jewish Dems but these places are (slowly) trending R.

[2016]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I actually think Duval and Seminole stay blue. Both are trending Democratic and have more in common with suburban counties in other states than South Florida. Pinellas might stay blue because it is more like a WI PA MI big urban wwc heavy county than most Florida ones and growth is lower than rest of state, meaning fewer red transplants moving in. Biden for all the Ds faults with the WWC doesn’t seem terribly likely to slip much further with this group.

But it’s easy to get Trump the 6-9% win by flipping Miami-Dade red and running up numbers better in red transplant areas like Sarasota, Volusia, Brevard. Might also lose Broward and Palm Beach by less, Biden’s probably going to stop the bleeding a bit with Jewish Dems but these places are (slowly) trending R.

Yeah, Trump lost 1-2 Percentage Points on average in Counties like Sarasota, Lee, Collier, etc. from 2016 to 2024 because of COVID19 I think. If he can improve those margins again then he does get the 6-9 Point range like you said.

Also, it depends how much DeSantis holding a grudge against Trump after the Primaries. DeSantis campaigned like a workhorse in 2020 for Trump.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I actually think Duval and Seminole stay blue. Both are trending Democratic and have more in common with suburban counties in other states than South Florida. Pinellas might stay blue because it is more like a WI PA MI big urban wwc heavy county than most Florida ones and growth is lower than rest of state, meaning fewer red transplants moving in. Biden for all the Ds faults with the WWC doesn’t seem terribly likely to slip much further with this group.

But it’s easy to get Trump the 6-9% win by flipping Miami-Dade red and running up numbers better in red transplant areas like Sarasota, Volusia, Brevard. Might also lose Broward and Palm Beach by less, Biden’s probably going to stop the bleeding a bit with Jewish Dems but these places are (slowly) trending R.

The counties you mentioned are full of college educated old whites. Why would you assume they swing further R? Flipping Miami-Dade only adds 0.7 to Trump’s margins and is more than cancelled out with the in the other urban counties you mentioned, and the Cuban thaw backlash/COVID are done now.

What do you think the demographic breakdown is for Trump to win FL by 9? Trump wins Hispanics by 20 and improves with college educated whites?

[2016]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I actually think Duval and Seminole stay blue. Both are trending Democratic and have more in common with suburban counties in other states than South Florida. Pinellas might stay blue because it is more like a WI PA MI big urban wwc heavy county than most Florida ones and growth is lower than rest of state, meaning fewer red transplants moving in. Biden for all the Ds faults with the WWC doesn’t seem terribly likely to slip much further with this group.

But it’s easy to get Trump the 6-9% win by flipping Miami-Dade red and running up numbers better in red transplant areas like Sarasota, Volusia, Brevard. Might also lose Broward and Palm Beach by less, Biden’s probably going to stop the bleeding a bit with Jewish Dems but these places are (slowly) trending R.

The counties you mentioned are full of college educated old whites. Why would you assume they swing further R? Flipping Miami-Dade only adds 0.7 to Trump’s margins and is more than cancelled out with the in the other urban counties you mentioned, and the Cuban thaw backlash/COVID are done now.

What do you think the demographic breakdown is for Trump to win FL by 9? Trump wins Hispanics by 20 and improves with college educated whites?

Trump lost Hispanics in FL 52-47 in 2020. He lost Puerto Ricans by over 50 Points in 2020. That's just not going to happen in 2024. I'll think he'll win the Hispanic Vote in FL this time.

[EastwoodS]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I agree with the county map except for Duval and I'm 50/50 on Miami Dade. It could really do it's own thing.