What is more likely to happen in Florida?

[Tekken_Guy]

What is more likely to happen in Florida?

[EastwoodS]

Riverwalk? Riverwalk? where are yo- Oh, no, wait- here he comes, nevermind.

[Xing]

Trump wins by double digits, though my hot take is that this isn’t the case for Texas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump wins by double digits, though my hot take is that this isn’t the case for Texas.

It's an R 3 state , Trump is likely to win it because he is ahead in ztX by 8 and FL is similar to TX and he may pick DeSantis or Donalds as Veep. But Rev Barb already said donate to ALLRED not POWELL


Biden already said he is concentrating on 30e and let our S candidates win red states like Brown and ALLRED and Tester, that's why he is only blanketing airwaves in 303

There is an NAACP travel ban in FL and FL has a Cuban Embargo

[Rand]

Ron DeSantis represents a state shaped like a wilted phallus. Coincidence? I think not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron DeSantis represents a state shaped like a wilted phallus. Coincidence? I think not.

It's shaped like Italy on purpose it has a Strong Sicilian like abd so does NY it's no accident that it looks like a boot


It's a red state abd we know that, Rs are trying to make PA a red state or NJ they have strong Italian and so does MO and LA, it's the same blue and red dive as always

[Samof94]

Trump wins by double digits, though my hot take is that this isn’t the case for Texas.

Mar-A-Lago is in Florida, not Texas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Part of me wants me to say it's a red state and part of me wants me to say blue state; however, it's not 22 with IAN. Facebook does have Debbie ahead by 1.

The reason why 2016 doesn't understand how Ds can win in FL is not because of party registration, MS has more Rs and KY has Dixiecrats but it's called split voting. Voting 2/3rds for an R state legislatures and DS or G candidate

Of course Rs have an ID in FL the state legislature is R that won't stop Debbie Powell, and anyways, I don't feel comfortable going into Eday having OH, NC, FL and TX Safe R

[SnowLabrador]

Trump wins the state by double digits. In fact, I think this will happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump wins the state by double digits. In fact, I think this will happen.

Lol the last poll had Scott up 45/41 so no Rs concede 90 percentage pts 9f the blk vote and 66 percent of Latino vote, we vote too you know it's not all Caucasian votes and females vote 50/50 whereas 75 percent white men vote R

Cook has it R 3 before Ian, it's a red state but it's not R 20 like in 2022 it's R 3

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden wins by far. Trump is more likely to win Georgia by double digits than Florida.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Biden wins by far. Trump is more likely to win Georgia by double digits than Florida.

Like clockwork lol

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

[2016]

Trump wins the state by double digits. In fact, I think this will happen.

It will not be double digits BUT it's almost guaranteed it will be by more than 2020.

The User EastwoodS, who I am trusting the most, pegged it at 7.5 Percentage Points during his GE Prediction. That seems reasonable to me.

All things considered Republicans will have a 500,000+ Turnout Advantage in FL, maybe even more come E-Day 2024.

[2016]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

[TodayJunior]

Biden wins by far. Trump is more likely to win Georgia by double digits than Florida.

Now THAT is a hot take. May I join you in whatever alternate universe you’re currently residing?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump winning by double digits by the length of the I-95.

[seskoog]

A better question would be “What’s more likely? Biden winning Florida, or Trump outperforming Marco Rubio 2022?”

[Devils30]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

I agree Trump is likely winning FL by at least 6 if not 8-9. One thing FL becoming redder does is reduce the EC/PV gap with the state becoming a red vote sink. Biden will not waste money here this time either, his dollars are going to MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

I agree Trump is likely winning FL by at least 6 if not 8-9. One thing FL becoming redder does is reduce the EC/PV gap with the state becoming a red vote sink. Biden will not waste money here this time either, his dollars are going to MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

I doubt he’s wasting money in Georgia either. Polls show Trump up by 5 there on average.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

I agree Trump is likely winning FL by at least 6 if not 8-9. One thing FL becoming redder does is reduce the EC/PV gap with the state becoming a red vote sink. Biden will not waste money here this time either, his dollars are going to MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

I doubt he’s wasting money in Georgia either. Polls show Trump up by 5 there on average.

Please...

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

I agree Trump is likely winning FL by at least 6 if not 8-9. One thing FL becoming redder does is reduce the EC/PV gap with the state becoming a red vote sink. Biden will not waste money here this time either, his dollars are going to MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

I doubt he’s wasting money in Georgia either. Polls show Trump up by 5 there on average.

Please...

Just because polls aren’t what you want them to be doesn’t mean that they are wrong. Biden’s path to victory probably involves holding PA, MI, AZ, NV.

[Devils30]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

I agree Trump is likely winning FL by at least 6 if not 8-9. One thing FL becoming redder does is reduce the EC/PV gap with the state becoming a red vote sink. Biden will not waste money here this time either, his dollars are going to MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

I doubt he’s wasting money in Georgia either. Polls show Trump up by 5 there on average.

Please...

Just because polls aren’t what you want them to be doesn’t mean that they are wrong. Biden’s path to victory probably involves holding PA, MI, AZ, NV.

I don't see how the hell Biden can ever win GA! Not like he won it in 2020 or the Dems won any senate races there in 2021-2022. With 10% Dem trending counties each cycle around Atlanta, surely the state is unwinnable because the blacks love Trump and he will get a 17 point swing right in the black belt.

I am close to just putting this idiot on ignore.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

I agree Trump is likely winning FL by at least 6 if not 8-9. One thing FL becoming redder does is reduce the EC/PV gap with the state becoming a red vote sink. Biden will not waste money here this time either, his dollars are going to MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

I doubt he’s wasting money in Georgia either. Polls show Trump up by 5 there on average.

Please...

Just because polls aren’t what you want them to be doesn’t mean that they are wrong. Biden’s path to victory probably involves holding PA, MI, AZ, NV.

I don't see how the hell Biden can ever win GA! Not like he won it in 2020 or the Dems won any senate races there in 2021-2022. With 10% Dem trending counties each cycle around Atlanta, surely the state is unwinnable because the blacks love Trump and he will get a 17 point swing right in the black belt.

I am close to just putting this idiot on ignore.

Democrats barely won the first round with the best possible incumbent versus someone who beat up his wife, while every other race had the Republican win between 5 to 9. And Atlanta only saw 2 point swings, not 10. Miami-Dade also saw 7 point left swings every cycle from 2004 to 2016.

Louisiana and every 2022 result across many different states, as well as polling shows the black belt rural counties shifting hard right. And you don’t get to dismiss current Georgia polling. Unlike the rest of the states, Georgia polls were accurate within 1 point.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Riverwalk, are you sure you aren’t at least a little biased with your FL predictions because the FL Democrats are the only non-GOP candidates you’ve endorsed in your signature?

Well, we’ll see what happens; if abortion doesn’t make the ballot then my prediction changes to Trump +6; even this might be too much given that Florida consistently trended towards the incumbent for the last 6 cycles. Right now Emerson, which shows results like Trump +9 PA and Biden +4 CO, had Biden up in Florida in their last poll.

I’m not sure why college educated whites in Florida are still R +14 tbh, as they are more similar in profile to the Midwest than the Deep South. It is a candidate for a swing similar to how college educated whites trended from 2016 to 2020 in Georgia, though I don’t expect one that drastic.