Israel-Gaza war

[Meclazine for Israel]

Pro-Hamas activists won't be tearing this down.

World's Largest Kidnapped Poster

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C1DlTMzLhEV/

I must say how impressed i am with the Jewish community filming the pro-Hamas activists in the US and getting them sacked. The Hamas supporters clearly don't want the kidnapped posters being posted as it flies in the face of their posturing that Hamas militants are sweet and golden.

Turns out they rape, kidnap and murder like no other humans on Earth. And these 'Kidnapped posters' are an afront to their public image as a people supporting Hamas. Kidnapping women, children and babies is a pretty gutless thing to do.

Tearing down posters of kidnapped babies is not much better.

[pppolitics]

The oldest Americans are the most supportive of Israel; the youngest Americans are the least.

While Israel retains the support of Americans for now, the trajectory is clear.

Unless the Israel of the future is radically different from the Israel of the present, a divorce from the United States is inevitable.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The latest reasonable and not at all genocidal statement from an Israeli official: lets turn Gaza into Auschwitz

https://twitter.com/Megatron_ron/status/1736454261276393886

So us overthrowing foreign governments is fine in your eyes, as long as not one soldier's foot hits the ground? Just clarifying for future and past reference.

In an ideal world I'd prefer America follow the Washington-Jefferson policy of non-intervention, which would mean zero money for Israel's war machine (or anyone else's, for that matter).

Short of that, if America is going to have an empire then it should at least exercise some control over the conduct of its vassals. Israel is currently bringing America an enormous amount of grief for minimal benefit besides lobbying money and subsidies to the Military Industrial Complex. Even putting aside morality, if your only goal is maintaining American hegemony then unconditionally supporting a campaign of vengeance against a civilian population is obviously only going to create problems. We're already starting to see this with the ongoing Red Sea crisis. Hell, even if your only priority is the benefit of Israel you would be doing them a favor by preventing them from totally destroying their reputation in a short sighted rage.

You've also not worked out the logistics of how that's going to occur when supporting Israel with aid enjoys massive majorities in both houses whether you like it or not. Be a realist, this is the world you live in. A clear majority of the two political parties that have power in American government at the very least quietly support what Israel is doing in Gaza.

Okay, the Israel Lobby owns Congress. We all know that, but so what?

Nixon told Golda Meir to not attack Cairo and she fell in line.
Reagan told Menachem Begin to stop his indiscriminate bombing of Lebanon and he fell in line.
HW Bush told Yitzhak Shamir to not retaliate when Saddam hit Israel with Scud missiles to avoid screwing up his anti-Saddam Arab coalition and he fell in line.

Ultimate authority here lies with the President and if he said Netanyahu can't continue his campaign with American support then that would be the end of that. That's how it works when normal countries are completely dependent on American support: they fold the instant that support is seriously threatened. Strange that even Republicans like Reagan and HW understood this but Biden apparently doesn't.

[Open Source Intelligence]

The latest reasonable and not at all genocidal statement from an Israeli official: lets turn Gaza into Auschwitz

https://twitter.com/Megatron_ron/status/1736454261276393886

So us overthrowing foreign governments is fine in your eyes, as long as not one soldier's foot hits the ground? Just clarifying for future and past reference.

In an ideal world I'd prefer America follow the Washington-Jefferson policy of non-intervention, which would mean zero money for Israel's war machine (or anyone else's, for that matter).

Short of that, if America is going to have an empire then it should at least exercise some control over the conduct of its vassals. Israel is currently bringing America an enormous amount of grief for minimal benefit besides lobbying money and subsidies to the Military Industrial Complex. Even putting aside morality, if your only goal is maintaining American hegemony then unconditionally supporting a campaign of vengeance against a civilian population is obviously only going to create problems. We're already starting to see this with the ongoing Red Sea crisis. Hell, even if your only priority is the benefit of Israel you would be doing them a favor by preventing them from totally destroying their reputation in a short sighted rage.

You've also not worked out the logistics of how that's going to occur when supporting Israel with aid enjoys massive majorities in both houses whether you like it or not. Be a realist, this is the world you live in. A clear majority of the two political parties that have power in American government at the very least quietly support what Israel is doing in Gaza.

Okay, the Israel Lobby owns Congress. We all know that, but so what?

Find evidence of corruption or support people in elections that are not owned by the Israel lobby in your view. No, I'm not kidding.

Nixon told Golda Meir to not attack Cairo and she fell in line.
Reagan told Menachem Begin to stop his indiscriminate bombing of Lebanon and he fell in line.
HW Bush told Yitzhak Shamir to not retaliate when Saddam hit Israel with Scud missiles to avoid screwing up his anti-Saddam Arab coalition and he fell in line.

Ultimate authority here lies with the President and if he said Netanyahu can't continue his campaign with American support then that would be the end of that. That's how it works when normal countries are completely dependent on American support: they fold the instant that support is seriously threatened. Strange that even Republicans like Reagan and HW understood this but Biden apparently doesn't.

Barack Obama's foreign policy was heavily influenced by thoughts on "The Post-American World". Part of that post-Iraq War operating paradigm is that the U.S. should be withdrawing from certain areas of the world and we should be less an empire. The two areas that foremost threatens due to our tentacles of control in those places are Europe and the Middle East. Obama who Biden served as VP under was wholesale withdrawal from the Middle East. I think both individuals were also for slowly getting out of Europe (to instead more focus on the more strategically important Indo-Pacific) but the Russo-Ukrainian War forced us to get back in. An America out of the Middle East means Israel as well as other countries in the region like Saudi Arabia are more independent in decision-making. Pretty confident the Israelis and Saudis want a huge American presence there, it's a nice add-on for their individual state security. Americans want to withdraw and what happens? Iranians instigate a coup attempt in Bahrain that the Saudis deploy into Bahrain to stop, in response to that the Syrian Civil War starts to oust the Iranian-backed Assad, which was not really a Syrian Civil War but was instead a war of the entire Arabian Peninsula between Saudis and Allies vs. Iran and Allies. There's then allegedly the Saudis and Emiratis were going to invade Qatar which played into why Rex Tillerson got fired as Secretary of State when he warned everyone locally. For Israel, Gaza does a flash attack inside southern Israel and Israel made the decision they are going to fix their security with Hamas once and for all. Nature abhors a power vacuum. Israel and Saudi Arabia are both acting like America has much less influence over their decision-making, but we're still selling them arms.

How much of Biden's foreign policy is influenced by Obama I think is a good question. In some ways, I find Biden's foreign policy a complete rejection of Obama's foreign policy and it's closer to Clinton and the 2 Bushes than Obama. It'd be a good thesis topic for historians in the future. But if Biden told Netanyahu we're cutting off aid, Netanyahu I think would call his bluff. He knows Biden doesn't speak for the State Department and that Congress supports Israel en masse and there's an election next year where Biden is constrained by "we have to win an election at all costs against this existential threat to the Republic named Donald Trump". You think all these foreign countries don't have their own political analysis on American politics? When that becomes your thinking of "we must win at all costs", you start conceding what you ultimately believe in because it serves the much greater purpose. You've already seen the administration is backing away from Democratic immigration policy. It's much easier to be principled when you know you're going to win easily or know you're going to lose.

[CumbrianLefty]

Without changes of leadership on both sides, I think this conflict ultimately ends, sadly, with a mass expulsion of Palestinians from both Gaza and the West Bank.

Tbh this learned helplessness is a bit tiresome. The outside world *does* have the power to prevent Israel carrying out such a monstrous and utterly evil act, and should exercise it if necessary.

And yes, that may involve helping to force Netanyahu from power.

So we're for global military deployment in the Middle East and we're for regime change.

I remember a certain conflict, say 15 to 20 years ago. I'm sure everyone is arguing the exact same then as they are now and no one is being a hypocrite.

Except regime change in Iraq required a ground invasion and occupation, whereas "regime change" in Israel would simply require that the US not send them billions of dollars and provide them unlimited logistical support.

So us overthrowing foreign governments is fine in your eyes, as long as not one soldier's foot hits the ground? Just clarifying for future and past reference.

You are making this sound something like Guatemala in 1954, with a popular leader being couped even in face of opposition by most of the people. Whereas right now, as any poll can tell you, most Israelis want Bibi gone (and probably in jail too) Even leaving aside the ever more urgent moral questions, it is obvious that he wants this war to drag on for as long as possible to avoid accountability.

Why should the US, or indeed any other country, indulge him?

[pppolitics]

What Was Israel Supposed to Do After Oct. 7? Not This

do not post full articles, copyright violation

https://www.newsweek.com/what-was-israel-supposed-do-after-oct-7-not-this-opinion-1853550[/list]

[Pericles]

I'm not sure if this article has already been shared, but this reveals another depressing aspect to the conflict-‘Israel only responds to force’: support for Hamas soars in West Bank after October attack

Despite the devastation caused by the new war, support for Hamas had risen in Gaza and more than tripled in the West Bank. Fifty-two percent of Gazans and 85% of West Bank respondents - or 72% of Palestinian respondents overall - voiced satisfaction with the role of Hamas in the war.

Just 10% of the poll’s 1,712 respondents said they had seen evidence that Hamas committed war crimes during the 7 October attack, despite the fact that extreme violence towards Israeli civilians has been well documented by the international media.

Shikaki’s research also found waning patience with the West Bank’s semi-autonomous Palestinian Authority (PA). After 17 years without elections, President Mahmoud Abbas’s administration is widely seen as corrupt and illegitimate: 90% of respondents said that the 88-year-old should resign.

Viewed by many Palestinians as little more than a subcontractor for the Israeli occupation, the PA has no presence or legitimacy in Jenin’s camp and other restive areas such as the Nablus casbah and the Balata and Tulkarm camps.

It's hardly surprising that Palestinians feel this way, even though we'd wish they'd turn on Hamas. It does make the idea of the PA running Gaza look like a bit of a joke, because either way it just ends up feeling like an Israeli occupation. The PA needs to be seriously 'revitalised' to be able to represent the Palestinian people.

[patzer]

It's hardly surprising that Palestinians feel this way, even though we'd wish they'd turn on Hamas. It does make the idea of the PA running Gaza look like a bit of a joke, because either way it just ends up feeling like an Israeli occupation. The PA needs to be seriously 'revitalised' to be able to represent the Palestinian people.

The issue is that any Palestinian government which is representative of the Palestinian people is going to be Hamas-led. There's no way to magically stop Hamas being the overwhelmingly favoured option among Palestinians- bear in mind that polling shows most Palestinians in favour of Hamas's actions on 10/7.

[Pericles]

It's hardly surprising that Palestinians feel this way, even though we'd wish they'd turn on Hamas. It does make the idea of the PA running Gaza look like a bit of a joke, because either way it just ends up feeling like an Israeli occupation. The PA needs to be seriously 'revitalised' to be able to represent the Palestinian people.

The issue is that any Palestinian government which is representative of the Palestinian people is going to be Hamas-led. There's no way to magically stop Hamas being the overwhelmingly favoured option among Palestinians- bear in mind that polling shows most Palestinians in favour of Hamas's actions on 10/7.

Yeah that's the problem. Israel and the PLO did end up negotiating after a few decades I guess, but after Oslo's failure they'll be even more hesitant to try again.

[Horus]

The oldest Americans are the most supportive of Israel; the youngest Americans are the least.

While Israel retains the support of Americans for now, the trajectory is clear.

Unless the Israel of the future is radically different from the Israel of the present, a divorce from the United States is inevitable.

I mean, Israel is down to a plurality now. They're certainly falling faster than I expected.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Israel would last somewhere between a week and a month without American backing. They'd run out of munitions and their planes would be grounded for lack of spare parts.  Then they'd go bankrupt from the economic pressure, and that's without South Africa style sanctions.

Wishful thinking.

Israel would suffer without US support, but most of what they are currently sourcing is bought, so the Biden administration would have to go after contracts to stop those. If he could muster the support for sanctions, it would throw a spanner in those works, but some of what the Israelis import can be compensated for with the cancellation of (numerous) military export contracts, and the US really isn’t the only game in town and they could find it easier to circumvent sanctions than Russia for a variety of reasons (except via autarky, that is). The jet parts would prove a serious problem, but they have enough artillery to level Gaza without aerial bombardment and it’s not as if they put much emphasis on bomb guidance anyway.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Collective punishment will continue I guess.

[jaichind]

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231219-israel-revenue-from-eilat-port-drops-by-80-due-to-houthi-red-sea-attacks/

"Israel: revenue from Eilat port drops by 80% due to Houthi Red Sea attacks"

[CumbrianLefty]

No, the US can't simply command Israel to stop fighting - or indeed their policy more generally. But if we recall (and far too many seem to forget this) that Netanyahu is not popular anyway, it also strains credulity that they are without significant influence - and their backing still counts for a great deal.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Israel would last somewhere between a week and a month without American backing. They'd run out of munitions and their planes would be grounded for lack of spare parts.  Then they'd go bankrupt from the economic pressure, and that's without South Africa style sanctions.

Wishful thinking.

Israel would suffer without US support, but most of what they are currently sourcing is bought, so the Biden administration would have to go after contracts to stop those.

Every foreign arms export (not just equipment but information and repair) requires a license under ITAR. The buyer is controlled with what they can do after receipt and is struck from doing an A sells to B who sells to C because A won't sell to C. Remove the license, those companies would not be able to sell if they want to stay in the good graces of their main buyer, the U.S. government.

That's the polite version. The practical version is there's lobbying involved not just with foreign governments and their supporters here, but also defense contractors who provide lots of jobs in certain areas.

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/AdHaque110/status/1737677067473367294?t=r8mCWCIhPjvsEnJCTDA0...

Down to the leviathans of Micronesia and Nauru.

Even Argentina's crazy new gov voted yea, wow.

[patzer]

https://twitter.com/AdHaque110/status/1737677067473367294?t=r8mCWCIhPjvsEnJCTDA0...
Down to the leviathans of Micronesia and Nauru.

Even Argentina's crazy new gov voted yea, wow.

Disappointed in the British government for not even being willing to abstain

[Reactionary Libertarian]

https://twitter.com/AdHaque110/status/1737677067473367294?t=r8mCWCIhPjvsEnJCTDA0...
Down to the leviathans of Micronesia and Nauru.

Even Argentina's crazy new gov voted yea, wow.

No people have the “right” to self-determination. This concept is one of the worst ideas of the modern age. Not even the strongest supporters of the Palestinian cause believe it would be a thriving liberal democracy making positive contributions to the world.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/AdHaque110/status/1737677067473367294?t=r8mCWCIhPjvsEnJCTDA0...

Down to the leviathans of Micronesia and Nauru.

Even Argentina's crazy new gov voted yea, wow.

Did Israel buy off Nauru? Because Russia paid them to recognize Abkhazia.

[Dr. MB]

Down to the leviathans of Micronesia and Nauru.

Even Argentina's crazy new gov voted yea, wow.

Did Israel buy off Nauru? Because Russia paid them to recognize Abkhazia.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/israel-in-solomon-islands

Yeah basically. Kind of a funny situation. I assumed Micronesia was bc they rely so heavily on U.S. aid but I guess they get a lot from Israel also.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Down to the leviathans of Micronesia and Nauru.

Even Argentina's crazy new gov voted yea, wow.

Did Israel buy off Nauru? Because Russia paid them to recognize Abkhazia.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/israel-in-solomon-islands

Yeah basically. Kind of a funny situation. I assumed Micronesia was bc they rely so heavily on U.S. aid but I guess they get a lot from Israel also.

Well, none of the 3 countries in free association with the US voted for this, but they chose 1 each of voting against, abstaining, and not voting.

[CumbrianLefty]

No people have the “right” to self-determination. This concept is one of the worst ideas of the modern age. Not even the strongest supporters of the Palestinian cause believe it would be a thriving liberal democracy making positive contributions to the world.

A complete non-sequitur.

And of course given what you say, Israel has no such "right" either.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

No people have the “right” to self-determination. This concept is one of the worst ideas of the modern age. Not even the strongest supporters of the Palestinian cause believe it would be a thriving liberal democracy making positive contributions to the world.

A complete non-sequitur.

And of course given what you say, Israel has no such "right" either.

Yes, Israel only has a “right” to exist in the sense that they have the ability and will to defend themselves and secure their own existence. They have no fundamental “human right” to exist and it’s preposterous to suggest that. It’s a country, not a person. We should still support Israel because it’s a net positive for the world and is certainly superior to any Arab Muslim state that would replace it.

[Comrade Funk]

20,000 dead officially. What an awful reaction.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/RollingStone/status/1737982283536060834?s=20