Israel-Gaza war

[pppolitics]

Tel Aviv and Jerusalem (CNN) — Yoav Peled says he has started wondering if the world has gone mad.

Sitting outside the Kirya, Israel’s equivalent of the Pentagon in Tel Aviv, Peled was cutting pieces of yellow ribbon off a large wheel last Thursday, handing them out to strangers passing by. The bands symbolize solidarity with the roughly 240 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.

It is this solidarity – and specifically whether it still extends beyond Israel’s borders – that Peled was questioning.

“I used to consider myself part of the extreme liberals, whatever they call themselves. But when I see demonstrations with cries in support of Hamas and stuff like that, I doubt that the world understands complexity … and when they can’t understand complexity, they see this as a one-sided thing and their sense of justice is very simple. But it’s not simple,” he told CNN. “I think the governments understand this, but the people… I don’t know.”

As global leaders continue to pile pressure on Israel over the mounting civilian death toll from its bombardment of Gaza and huge crowds gather for pro-Palestinian protests in cities like London, Washington DC, Berlin, Paris, Amman and Cairo – almost all in support of civilians in Gaza, rather than Hamas – many Israelis are getting frustrated with what they see as unequal treatment.

[...]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/middleeast/israel-mood-gaza-war-intl-cmd/index.html

[Horus]

I'm with you, but post this in the megathread or it'll get locked.

[Horus]

Biden not feeling Israeli plans to occupy Gaza.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1721957062413042013?t=TuKGOk-Xd6F-f4VC...

[jaichind]

Biden not feeling Israeli plans to occupy Gaza.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1721957062413042013?t=TuKGOk-Xd6F-f4VC...

But if the Biden administration is not will to put taking way military aid to Israel on the table what incentive does Israel have to take Biden's views into account?

[Vosem]

Biden not feeling Israeli plans to occupy Gaza.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1721957062413042013?t=TuKGOk-Xd6F-f4VC...

But if the Biden administration is not will to put taking way military aid to Israel on the table what incentive does Israel have to take Biden's views into account?

Well, Biden may well be in office until 2029, and a subsequent Democratic Administration might well have lots of continuity with his. But I think this is just reading the actual statement way more stridently than it was meant; the actual statement is the sentence, "Generally speaking, we do not support the reoccupation of Gaza and neither does Israel," in the middle of vague platitudes by a lower-level spokesman. In the context of the remarks it sounds like it affirms that the US and Israel have the same stance, and the "generally speaking" makes it sound like if a reoccupation happens it just can't be permanent, which is just a reiteration of what the US's position has been since 1994.

Outside of that context it seems pretty clear that neither side knows what the ultimate plan is and it might still be dependent on the outcomes of the fighting, which is continuing. I haven't even heard of a side say what its position in negotiations is yet; Israel's only stance is that Hamas must be destroyed as an organization and it appears that there's not even a consensus within the Netanyahu government about what the solution is for Gazan governance.

[Pres Mike]

I'm still deeply skeptical that Israel plans to invade and occupy the entire Gaza strip. Forces haven't even entered Gaza City proper. Going house to house, tunnel by tunnel would take months and 10x the casualties.

Than you repeat in Southern Gaza, which now has 2.3 million people.

I don't think Netanyahu has a plan at all. His government obviously can't let the events of Oct 7 so unpunished and they need a "victory" of some sort. But a full scale invasion of the Gaza Strip still seems unlikely.

Suppose they did...what next? If the IDF occupies the Gaza Strip you'll have a never ending Vietnam like insurgency. The ideal solution would be returning the strip back to the Abbas government, backed by international troops. But I very much doubt any Israeli government wants foreign troops in lands they still claim to be Israeli land.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Suppose they did...what next? If the IDF occupies the Gaza Strip you'll have a never ending Vietnam like insurgency. The ideal solution would be returning the strip back to the Abbas government, backed by international troops. But I very much doubt any Israeli government wants foreign troops in lands they still claim to be Israeli land.

Israel does not claim the Gaza strip.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ehud-barak-israel-palestine-war-hamas-global-opinion-sours/

An arab international force was discussed in 2008 but Egypt and Abbas did not want to.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/ttjktyrt/status/1721949915272888693

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/ttjktyrt/status/1721949915272888693

A random socialist from India said it on twitter. A truly amazing source.

And you don't even check the replies

https://twitter.com/MarkZlochin/status/1721790120255254938

[pppolitics]

Women and children represent 67% of the killed in the Gaza Strip.

https://www.who.int/news/item/03-11-2023-women-and-newborns-bearing-the-brunt-of-the-conflict-in-gaza-un-agencies-warn

[Vosem]

Suppose they did...what next? If the IDF occupies the Gaza Strip you'll have a never ending Vietnam like insurgency. The ideal solution would be returning the strip back to the Abbas government, backed by international troops. But I very much doubt any Israeli government wants foreign troops in lands they still claim to be Israeli land.

You don't have that in the West Bank, and you didn't have that in Gaza or southern Lebanon when Israel occupied those places. (You had discrete insurgencies, between 1988-1994 and 2001-2005, but not a never-ending Vietnam-style quagmire; most of those places were fine, which is why Gaza and the West Bank had settlement projects). The difference is that Vietnamese insurgents could be supplied through North Vietnam, but supplying Gazan insurgents would be much harder. Of course so long as humanitarian aid continues moving into the region it could be done.

I think foreign troops in an area Israel intends to give up eventually who are there with the sanction of the Israeli government is fine; there are many governments permitting allied nations to set up military bases on their territory, after all, and Gaza is only "Israeli territory" if you look at it from a legalistic rather than a practical standpoint.

Women and children represent 67% of the killed in the Gaza Strip.

https://www.who.int/news/item/03-11-2023-women-and-newborns-bearing-the-brunt-of-the-conflict-in-gaza-un-agencies-warn

Wow, Hamas really needs to unconditionally surrender, or at least dramatically change the way they prosecute their wars. (As I've discussed elsewhere, their ways of war have been copied outside the Middle East, and the general attitude of news media towards stuff like this is just going to make the next dozen insurgencies use human shields more).

Suppose they did...what next? If the IDF occupies the Gaza Strip you'll have a never ending Vietnam like insurgency. The ideal solution would be returning the strip back to the Abbas government, backed by international troops. But I very much doubt any Israeli government wants foreign troops in lands they still claim to be Israeli land.

Israel does not claim the Gaza strip.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ehud-barak-israel-palestine-war-hamas-global-opinion-sours/

An arab international force was discussed in 2008 but Egypt and Abbas did not want to.

Israel has never recognized boundaries for a Palestinian state (though such boundaries have been offered), so under international law Gaza belongs to Israel whether it "claims" it or not, unless it actually recognizes it as part of a foreign state, which it has not done. Egypt does not want to participate in such a force (it didn't then, and I doubt it does now), but I think the modern suggestions don't contemplate Egyptian participation.

[Pericles]

Suppose they did...what next? If the IDF occupies the Gaza Strip you'll have a never ending Vietnam like insurgency. The ideal solution would be returning the strip back to the Abbas government, backed by international troops. But I very much doubt any Israeli government wants foreign troops in lands they still claim to be Israeli land.

Why would other countries want to send troops to Gaza, and if they're Arab be seen as bailing out Israel? And similarly, the PA is already deeply unpopular and seen as Israel's subcontractor, they know they'd have no capacity to rule Gaza and would be effectively an Israeli occupation anyway. That's why their PM said returning to Gaza requires progress to a two-state solution. Israel and the US both don't want to have to provide for Gaza and deal with an insurgency, but they're not going to let Hamas or even worse groups rule it again.

The most obvious way for them to avoid that cost might be for them to negotiate a two-state solution. Firstly, that requires Abbas to be replaced with someone with authority. More importantly, a the moment Israel will be even less willing than before October 7 to compromise. It would likely take years in Gaza to shift their attitudes.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

So, the outlines are becoming clearer now. Despite the Palestinians winning the war in certain corners of social media and some protests, in the actual situation on the ground the Israelis are winning.

Was anything else ever expected?

And hopefully that means this war can at least be paused soon.

No, I suppose not, and it's likely for the best for the precise reason you stated.

It is somewhat remarkable that the world is witnessing a rather public massacre and not a single Muslim power is able or willing to help Gaza, not even Iran. A big contrast to 1967 or 1973. Despite the agony of the Muslim world, in my view the restraint of Muslim states from becoming directly involved in a conflict against Israel is wise, given the alternative.

I agree wholeheartedly, it is sad to see how far the ummah has fallen.

[Meclazine for Israel]

IDF Promo Video

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CzWBa2_NGrM/

Hezbollah have said (unconfirmed) the onslaught by Israel must end by this Friday otherwise they will unleash their forces.

Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has come under fire from "The Sons of Abu Jandal".

Attack on Abbas

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CzW1FIwLuKa/

DW News looks at what would happen if Israel assumed "security responsibility" in Gaza after Hamas are wiped out.

Can Israel Secure Gaza?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKTT-VoCdlo

What does victory look like for Israel? ABC News talked with the Israeli Prime Minister.

ABC News Interview with Benjamin Netanyahu

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TbC_i0rlmM

PBS had a clean and clear report this evening on the Israeli war. The PBS journalist pressed Israeli 'chief-whip', Mark Regev, on the amount of Palestinian civilians that the Israeli's were prepared to kill to achieve their goals against Hamas.

PBS New Hour

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aolxZtqyLHo

Regev appeared adamant Israel will not stop until Hamastan is gone.

He also reminded Western media that up until now, all footage coming out of Gaza City is checked and released by Hamas militants casting doubt over their numbers and reporting.

We have already seen examples of this with the Hospital car park bombing where the leftist media outlets fell for it hook, line and sinker.

[Pres Mike]

Suppose they did...what next? If the IDF occupies the Gaza Strip you'll have a never ending Vietnam like insurgency. The ideal solution would be returning the strip back to the Abbas government, backed by international troops. But I very much doubt any Israeli government wants foreign troops in lands they still claim to be Israeli land.

You don't have that in the West Bank, and you didn't have that in Gaza or southern Lebanon when Israel occupied those places. (You had discrete insurgencies, between 1988-1994 and 2001-2005, but not a never-ending Vietnam-style quagmire; most of those places were fine, which is why Gaza and the West Bank had settlement projects). The difference is that Vietnamese insurgents could be supplied through North Vietnam, but supplying Gazan insurgents would be much harder. Of course so long as humanitarian aid continues moving into the region it could be done.

I think foreign troops in an area Israel intends to give up eventually who are there with the sanction of the Israeli government is fine; there are many governments permitting allied nations to set up military bases on their territory, after all, and Gaza is only "Israeli territory" if you look at it from a legalistic rather than a practical standpoint.

Women and children represent 67% of the killed in the Gaza Strip.

https://www.who.int/news/item/03-11-2023-women-and-newborns-bearing-the-brunt-of-the-conflict-in-gaza-un-agencies-warn

Wow, Hamas really needs to unconditionally surrender, or at least dramatically change the way they prosecute their wars. (As I've discussed elsewhere, their ways of war have been copied outside the Middle East, and the general attitude of news media towards stuff like this is just going to make the next dozen insurgencies use human shields more).

Suppose they did...what next? If the IDF occupies the Gaza Strip you'll have a never ending Vietnam like insurgency. The ideal solution would be returning the strip back to the Abbas government, backed by international troops. But I very much doubt any Israeli government wants foreign troops in lands they still claim to be Israeli land.

Israel does not claim the Gaza strip.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ehud-barak-israel-palestine-war-hamas-global-opinion-sours/

An arab international force was discussed in 2008 but Egypt and Abbas did not want to.

Israel has never recognized boundaries for a Palestinian state (though such boundaries have been offered), so under international law Gaza belongs to Israel whether it "claims" it or not, unless it actually recognizes it as part of a foreign state, which it has not done. Egypt does not want to participate in such a force (it didn't then, and I doubt it does now), but I think the modern suggestions don't contemplate Egyptian participation.

You don't have an insurgency in the West Bank because
A. Palestinians are free to leave the West bank through Jordan. They can go to other countries and send money home like my grandfather did befre moving to the US
B. A Palestinian "government" in most cities, towns and villages. The first intifada resulted in the Olso accords. The second intifada was caused by Israel not withdrawing from Area A and allowing Palestinian goverance.

In outright Israeli occupation in the Gaza Strip would result in a Hamas insurgency, backed by Iran. The only way to prevent this is an Abbas led government, backed by international troops.

[Hollywood]

It's happening.  A Gazan had the balls to criticize Hamas during one of their press conferences.  I've never seen that happen.  There may be hope for Gazans.   
https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1721970382985445787

Notice that's he followed by two pissed-off dudes.   

[Vosem]

You don't have an insurgency in the West Bank because
A. Palestinians are free to leave the West bank through Jordan. They can go to other countries and send money home like my grandfather did befre moving to the US
B. A Palestinian "government" in most cities, towns and villages. The first intifada resulted in the Olso accords. The second intifada was caused by Israel not withdrawing from Area A and allowing Palestinian goverance.

In outright Israeli occupation in the Gaza Strip would result in a Hamas insurgency, backed by Iran. The only way to prevent this is an Abbas led government, backed by international troops.

But the insurgency in South Vietnam was supplied overland by North Vietnam through Cambodia, and other famous insurgencies have generally been supplied through either overland smuggling or airdrops. Neither of these are an option for Gaza and both seem much more feasible in the West Bank, where there still isn't an insurgency. (Also, something like an eighth of the population of Gaza has emigrated since Hamas took over: while it is very difficult to leave it is not banned or impossible or anything like that, and under a non-Hamas government it would most likely get easier).

I don't really see how Iran would end up supplying an insurgency in Gaza. None of "through Israel", "through Egypt", or "over water" are remotely realistic options without a cooperative government in Gaza itself. The way to prevent insurgency is through the same techniques that have worked in the West Bank after 2005.

[Hollywood]

How many times have wee seen the Gazans force their kids to punch Israeli soldiers on camera, so they can send it off to CNN in order to manipulate Democrats into demanding a ceasefire?  This is the oldest trick in the book for Hamas, and the animals that amplify their lies.    


https://twitter.com/breeadail/status/1721855293590475182

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/1721657851700277638?t=ZKxFfbfLbHT70QhEEk...
This is horrific but you need to force yourself to watch this to be aware of the cruelty implemented by Israel.

[icc]

Fascinating reporting from the BBC on Israeli intelligence contacting people in Gaza, telling them to evacuate:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67327079

[oldtimer]

So, the outlines are becoming clearer now. Despite the Palestinians winning the war in certain corners of social media and some protests, in the actual situation on the ground the Israelis are winning.

Was anything else ever expected?

And hopefully that means this war can at least be paused soon.

No, I suppose not, and it's likely for the best for the precise reason you stated.

It is somewhat remarkable that the world is witnessing a rather public massacre and not a single Muslim power is able or willing to help Gaza, not even Iran. A big contrast to 1967 or 1973. Despite the agony of the Muslim world, in my view the restraint of Muslim states from becoming directly involved in a conflict against Israel is wise, given the alternative.

I agree wholeheartedly, it is sad to see how far the ummah has fallen.

It's the difference between Arab Monarchies and Arab Republics.

All Arab Republics have been leveled by America or defanged, since there is no Soviet Union and China is extremely Isolationist.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Senior Netanyahu adviser, Mark Regev:

“We are not going to allow terrorists to re-establish control in Gaza”

Australian ABC show '7:30 Report' grills Mark Regev on post-Gaza War with no Hamas.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-08/mark-regev-on-gaza-plan-post-hamas-730/103082138

Sarah Ferguson also digs into him on the West Bank and makes him nervous on occasion.

Unconfirmed reports on ABC News said Israeli intelligence have information that the Hamas Commander of Gaza is hiding underground in a bunker with his senior leaders. Sounds like 1945.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/1721657851700277638?t=ZKxFfbfLbHT70QhEEk...
This is horrific but you need to force yourself to watch this to be aware of the cruelty implemented by Israel.

Now show the Kibbutzim which were ruthlessly attacked and indiscriminately slaughtered. I support a ceasefire and a return to 1967 borders but I am tired of the selective propaganda by both sides on here.
That goes for you too, Hollywood.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/1721657851700277638?t=ZKxFfbfLbHT70QhEEk...
This is horrific but you need to force yourself to watch this to be aware of the cruelty implemented by Israel.

Now show the Kibbutzim which were ruthlessly attacked and indiscriminately slaughtered. I support a ceasefire and a return to 1967 borders but I am tired of the selective propaganda by both sides on here.
That goes for you too, Hollywood.

Also, he's using a fairly infamous Assadist propagandist, and literally nothing she posts can be trusted.

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/NoahPollak/status/1722307821159735644

I would say there are 70% odds that the central thesis of this story is in some way false, because the source does not seem very credible, but maybe 30% odds that we can finally go ahead and start prosecuting individuals in the mainstream media for having a bias against Israel so hilarious it leads you to start knowingly aiding terrorist organizations. Unfortunately American law does not provide a basis for disinterring Duranty, mutilating his body, and sticking his head on a pike outside our leading institutions, like they did to Cromwell, as a warning to future journalists.

(We've already established with the Hijjy stuff that the only way you maintain the bias is by hiring literal Nazis, since no one else could possibly maintain the narrative on becoming acquainted with the actual facts).