Who Won The GOP Debate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one because Trump wasn't there and they are going for Vice president except Pence and YOUNGKIN isn't even there and he would be a top candidate for Veep

[Sir Mohamed]

As I wrote in the live commentary thread, Haley by default.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It's clear Ramaswamy won. Primaries at this stage (where everyone is single-low double digits) is about getting attention to yourself (not that any of them has a chance to beat Trump unless he drops out for whatever reason).

[2016]

Nikki Haley won the Debate and that will probably hurt Chris Christie and Tim Scott.

Haley was in total command of the Issues.

Ramaswamy is just a FRAUD there to appease Trump.

I expect Haley to get a Polling Bump!

Viveks Positions are just unacceptable to a lot of Voters.

Before the Debate everyone expected the Field would go after DeSantis. That did not happen. Most of the attacks went to inexperienced Vivek Clownwamy!

[Zenobiyl]

There are three ways of looking at this:

-My opinion as a Democrat: Haley actually surprised me. She came across as relatively sane-and I hate giving her credit for anything. But she probably alienated the Trump base by making more pointed criticisms of him than I would have expected. Who does she really appeal to in the GOP? She is running for a general election she isn't going to make it to, especially not as Trump's running mate at this point. Maybe she'll absorb the meager support of Christie, Hurd, Hutchinson, Pence, and Scott should she stay in longer than them.

-In Republican fantasyland: Even though he took the brunt of the negative comments, Ramaswamy probably scratched all the itches the Trump cult wants as much as anyone can while not being Trump. He also had the mist persinality and youthful, outsider energy. He would get walloped in a general election though because while he has some of those qualities Trump had, he has less accomplished and less gravitas still. And I believe his youth and inexperience coupled with his absolutely outlandish views would cost him even versus Biden at his weakest. Regardless, I think his chances as Trump's running mate are high if Trump decides against going for a woman. He may surpass DeSantis or come close after this. But...

-Objectively: both Biden and Trump. So this debate won't matter.

In some ways Burgum won for being included and having any exposure at all, and Christie won as well by probably having the best zinger of the night. But those are basically participation/honorable mention trophies.

It was a wash for Pence, and everyone else lost pathetically.

Tbh I think the best zinger was Pence's off-the-cuff clapback after Vivek attacked the other candidates for saying canned lines:

"Is this one of yours, too?"

[2016]

The best ZINGER came at the beginning when Chris Christie slammed Vivek as CPT Vivek. I had to laugh when he did that!

In a 1 v 1 between Trump and Vivek I'll take Trump although I would never support Trump again because of J6, Election Lies, etc.

[Horus]

Nikki Haley was actually likable to me last night. I don't get it. On paper she's pretty much everything I disagree with.

[Meatball Slayer]

It's clear Ramaswamy won. Primaries at this stage (where everyone is single-low double digits) is about getting attention to yourself (not that any of them has a chance to beat Trump unless he drops out for whatever reason).

Ramaswamomentum

[Crumpets]

Going solely off of number of mentions in headlines, I'm gonna say Ramaswamy. Although unsurprisingly as a Dem, I thought Chrstie and Haley came across as the most palatable.

[indietraveler]

Trump because he probably strengthened his lead.

[MasterJedi]

Trump, they all pledged to support him if convicted because they all believe in “law and order”

[MABA 2020]

Seems like Vivek

[President Johnson]

I actually agree on Haley, she moped with floor with that clown named Ramaswamy. I had a feeling he'd do well when he introduced himself, but got owned by her and Christie. I'd still say he overall gained more than anticipated, which is a net positive for him. I guess he'll overtake DeSandwich in the next few polls. Pence did better than expected and stood his ground, so he's number three.

Christie also had a decent performance, though I doubt it will change much. I'm probably biased here anyway because I actually like the guy.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Interesting that only 1/108 Atlasians said DeSantis when the only real poll we have puts him at 27%, right behind Ramaswamy’s 28%, and far ahead of the next closest answer.

[lakemich]

According to 538's post-debate poll, it looks like all the debate attendees were winners, since they all raised their share of likely primary voters who are considering the candidate:

• Haley: 30.2% -> 46.7% considering (+16.5%)
• Burgum: 4.8% -> 12.4% considering (+7.6%)
• Ramaswamy: 40.8% -> 46.3% considering (+5.5%)
• DeSantis: 63.0% -> 67.5% considering (+4.5%)
• Christie: 18.2% -> 22.1% considering (+3.9%)
• Pence: 21.1% -> 23.5% considering (+2.4%)
• Scott: 41.1% -> 43.1% considering (+2.0%)
• Hutchinson: 8.5% -> 9.4% considering (+0.9%)

...and the losers were the ones who did not attend the debate:

• Suarez: 3.1% -> 2.9% considering (-0.2%)
• Hurd: 4.7% -> 3.6% considering (-1.1%)
• Trump: 66.2% -> 61.4% considering (-4.8%)

29% of their respondents said DeSantis performed best, followed by 26% for Ramaswamy and 15% for Haley (and a big gap for the rest). Christie was considered the worst performer by 22% of respondents, followed by Hutchinson (14%) and Pence (13%).

Personally, I think Haley was most impressive in this debate but it doesn't surprise me that Ramaswamy is performing well with Republican watchers. He basically attempted to fill the Trump spot in his absence, and pretty successfully. I actually think, based on this data, that Trump could be hurt by not attending debates, since he will no longer get to own the issues and can be treated as old news. The debate didn't really feel any different than how I would have imagined it without Trump running, besides the question or two that directly about him.

[Pericles]

Looks like Haley was the big winner from 538's polling.


DeSantis remains the most popular candidate in the race though, which is perhaps surprising. Obviously this is breadth of support and not its strength, we all know who has the most solid supporters.

[Ferguson97]

It's clear Ramaswamy won. Primaries at this stage (where everyone is single-low double digits) is about getting attention to yourself (not that any of them has a chance to beat Trump unless he drops out for whatever reason).

I'm not sure this is the best metric to go by. Of course the guy who is completely unknown is going to get googled more than a former VP, an incumbent Senator, a high-profile Governor, and the former UN Ambassador.

[WalterWhite]

Looks like Haley was the big winner from 538's polling.


DeSantis remains the most popular candidate in the race though, which is perhaps surprising. Obviously this is breadth of support and not its strength, we all know who has the most solid supporters.

Ramaswamy did much worse than expected. He was definitely the most charismatic person on the debate stage, so what gives?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Looks like Haley was the big winner from 538's polling.


DeSantis remains the most popular candidate in the race though, which is perhaps surprising. Obviously this is breadth of support and not its strength, we all know who has the most solid supporters.

Ramaswamy did much worse than expected. He was definitely the most charismatic person on the debate stage, so what gives?

His personality maybe?

[MT Treasurer]

Burgum; he distinguished himself most from the crowd.

This post, along with your "Loudoun County VA will be the Miami-Dade of 2024" gem, puts a lot of your other analyses in context.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Burgum; he distinguished himself most from the crowd.

This post, along with your "Loudoun County VA will be the Miami-Dade of 2024" gem, puts a lot of your other analyses in context.

The point of a crowded field is to distinguish yourself. This sometimes include taking positions that are not popular with your base, but even less popular with other candidates. That is in fact how Trump won the primaries in 2016 - I doubt many of his positions were the majority among Republican voters, but each one of them made him stand out.

Burgum opposed a national abortion ban. Suppose 65% of the Republican electorate supports one but 35% opposes it. Then, it's still better to oppose because you're gaining from most of the 35%, while the rest of the 65% is split between your opposition.

Vivek was also a winner by attracting a lot of attention to himself. DeSantis was a loser by being a non-entity, which is a big no-no in a multiway race where everyone is polling in the teens or lower.

Also, I'm not sure if Loudoun will shift right by 20+ points, but I'll bet you at even money that it does trend right relative to the nation, bucking its past trends. There's still a lot of variance in how things shift (ie the range of outcomes for me is that it could shift left by 10 or to the right by 20).

I know you support DeSantis and hate my posts against him, but I really urge you to reconsider your support for someone with his face on a spinning sonnenrad. Ramaswamy is now the person with the best chance of breaking through (though given that he's basically Trump personality you could support someone like Haley).

[MT Treasurer]

Your trolling is not as hard to see through as you might think, but it is original and at times amusing, so I'll give you a C+ overall👍

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Your trolling is not as hard to see through as you might think, but it is original and at times amusing, so I'll give you a C+ overall👍

You can disagree completely with my analysis, but I'll promise I am not trolling and believe everything I've written, at least at the time of the writing (my mind does change, just like everyone else's). If you're so confident of your viewpoints that you think any viewpoint outside of your box is trolling, then you can bet money on PredictIt.

You've never responded to why you don't think having a sonnenrad video should be an automatic disqualifier of someone as a candidate. It seems like every time I point out that DeSantis has promoted an ad with his face in a spinning sonnenrad and that should disqualify your support for him, you just resort to personal attacks.

[Vosem]

My own impression (this is always very very flawed -- I never independently reach the conclusions most people seem to, and even on rewatches I persistently have the impression that Rubio got the better of Christie in their New Hampshire debate, even though that's not what anybody else thought*) was that Pence won; he and Ramaswamy spoke the most, but Ramaswamy tended to come across as challenging him on irrelevant points and speaking very quickly (which I pattern-match to 'nervous'), while Pence spoke basically normally and confidently. He was also the only candidate to repeatedly receive praise from other candidates.

That said, per basically any poll, the three candidates that substantially picked up favorables or people considering them were Haley, Ramaswamy, and DeSantis, more-or-less in that order. (DeSantis was invisible the entire time; he didn't embarrass himself in a way that would make anyone leave, but as to why more people are considering him now, beats me). It also doesn't feel like it actually changed very much.

*My personal impression was that the first debate was Romney's worst, where he went way too wonky and got caught up in too many specifics, while 2-3 were better. But, again, literally nobody but me thought this.

[NyIndy]

Know I'm late throwing my 2 cents in but I think Haley won the debate. But I'll go through each candidate because I have a couple of hours before work starts:

Haley
Haley had a pretty good performance, and I think stands the most to gain, as I would imagine the bulk of Republican debate viewers were those who are looking for an alternative to Trump. I think she made a good case as to why she's a strong candidate for them to consolidate behind. Donor classes probably enjoyed her performance as well, which definitely doesn't hurt. She probably moved the needle slightly, but definitely not enough to threaten Trump.

Vivek
Vivek's performance was a love it or hate it kind of performance. As evidenced by reactions on social media and 538's polling. The people who support Trump were probably the most receptive to the message he put out last night, which may give him a sliver of Trump supporters but I doubt many are willing to abandon the former president but maybe in a Trump-less primary he becomes a much more serious candidate.

Ron
Ron did a good job not hurting himself, and that's not a bad thing considering the past few months he's had. I think this is another case of a candidate whose set themselves up incredibly well for a scenario where Trump is removed from contention, as low as the likelihood of that is. Considering he's the most popular and most considered candidate, he could conceivably pose a threat to Trump yet, though I'm still skeptical.

Pence
This is probably the one I'm the most conflicted about. Pence took control of the stage in a few moments and spoke the most, but it certainly didn't feel that way to me. I think he didn't hurt himself but probably didn't do anything to put himself into contention either. Didn't win voters over with his defense of his actions on 1/6 I'd imagine but he showed spine so respect for that. Definitely the most 2004-esque performance.

Scott
Scott didn't feel like a presence on stage. He probably could have launched himself into contention for second place with a strong performance, but he didn't so there's not much I can say about him. I would imagine he and Pence bleed a little support to Haley, who performed the best of the old-school/establishment candidates on stage. I think the biggest threat to Scott's longevity in the race is donor support, if they start jumping ship he'll be in real trouble.

Christie
Suffered under the great expectations of his 2016 destruction of Marco. But surprised his attacks on Trump didn't hurt him more with voters. Had a few moments where he tried to be an attack dog, but honestly I think his record resonated pretty well.

Burgum
The pocket constitution made me laugh

Asa
Should just drop out and endorse Christie, who prosecuted the case against Trump much more effectively.