Who Won The GOP Debate

[SInNYC]

My late summary. This is who I thought helped themselves from best to worst, most definitely not who I agreed with.

Vivek: I believe that any press is good press, especially at this early stage, and he was the center for most of the debate. Whether or not he made any sense isnt the issue, for now at least.

Scott: mostly unmemorable, but maybe he passes the beer test

Pence: he came off as angry, which is not the senior statesman image he is often associated with. But at the same time, he made his presence felt, and he was going nowhere before.

Burgum, Hutchinson: invisible, but thats by design so it neither hurt nor help. They are still at 0, but my criteria for ranking is the delta.

Desantis: I cant recall a single thing he said or did after the debate. Unmemorable, but at least he didnt have anything negative.

Haley: She attacked everybody (even Trump) and in an angry tone. At one point she actually said Rs were worse than Ds in spending by one metric. While true, I'm not sure this helps her with R primary voters.

I am not including Christie since I could really put him anywhere in this list.

I also have to add to Fox News: can you at least learn how to pronounce the candidate's name properly? The 4 moderators/commentators didnt even pronounce Vivek's name the same between themselves.

[TodayJunior]

This question is irrelevant since Dems have already won 2024. But since it was asked, Vivek did pretty well. Haley did better than I thought, Pence tanked, DeSantis did Ok, but not enough to regain any lost ground.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

The crowd was so anti-Trump lol. Half of them cheered when Christie was attacking Trump over his charges, despite the fact that the vast majority of Republicans think they're rubbish.

[Vice President Christian Man]

The crowd was so anti-Trump lol. Half of them cheered when Christie was attacking Trump over his charges, despite the fact that the vast majority of Republicans think they're rubbish.

Most of them were donors or campaign staff of the other candidates so it makes sense.

[Roll Roons]

Yesterday was apparently Haley's best ever day in terms of small dollar donations. She was probably the biggest winner on the whole.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think that Haley performed best, but according to 3 debate polls, DeSantis and Vivek did best.

The Trump cult obviously supported DeSantis because their cult leader was absent and Vivek is too brown for their taste.

[Ferguson97]

I persistently have the impression that Rubio got the better of Christie in their New Hampshire debate, even though that's not what anybody else thought*)

Were you, by any chance, cursed by a witch and doomed to take the opposite position as the majority of the public on every single issue?

[Sorenroy]

I think the main context to take into this type of ranking is the fact that Trump entered the debate at 52% nationally. Even if a candidate did well within the context of being on the stage, how did it move them closer to winning the nomination?

1. Mike Pence
My main question after watching the debate was "Why are all these people running against Trump?" It seems like everyone but Pence and Christie had no reason to be in this race besides hoping Trump gets locked in jail. Of those two candidates, I think Pence did a much better job of showing off his credibility as an older-style conservative. I don't think this is suddenly going to propel Pence anywhere close to first place, but it might be a first step to coalescing the Trump skeptical group for a future play at taking back the soul of the party. Just to reiterate, I really don't see this as a winning strategy, but it felt like Pence was the only candidate on that stage that clearly defined why he would be a real alternative to Trump at the top. Pence is playing from a weak position, but it felt like he played what he was working with perfectly in this debate.

2. Vivek Ramaswamy
I think I agree with the narrative of the other folks here on Ramaswamy's performance. He did a good job at putting himself at the center of the debate and most of the conflict-focused post-debate coverage will continue to spotlight him as well. But I'm having a hard time seeing how anyone who currently supports Trump would be willing to shift over to Ramaswamy or how Ramaswamy can pivot off of a strong debate performance to overtake Trump in the future. But, if something did happen to the Trump campaign, it feels like a performance like this is exactly what a candidate needs to have ready to take on Trump's mantel.

3. Ron DeSantis
I do not think that DeSantis did particularly well in the debate, but he's working from a position of already having OK polling and boatloads of money. If people were already considering supporting DeSantis and liked both him and Trump, I don't see that being damaged by a mediocre performance. If anything, the fact that he was on that stage and didn't under-perform might shore up reservations folks may have had about DeSantis embarrassing himself in front of the crowd. DeSantis's performance allows him to continue to funnel money into places like Iowa to slowly overtake Trump without worrying that a weak performance derailed the slow momentum he's already trying to work with.

4. Nikki Haley
I don't think Haley did well. If she was going for the classic conservative position, Pence outdid her. If she was going for competent Trump alternative without the baggage, I still think DeSantis has her beat. But, for that group of donors that see DeSantis slipping and Pence never being viable, I think she proved herself well enough to keep their support and potentially gain it from past Scott supporters. But that still leaves here in a tough position where her path to the nomination is still not there. She's just stuck without an empty lane in second place or lower on every metric.

5. Chris Christie
It feels like everything I heard about Christie leading up to the debate was resting on some sort of explosive performance which would prove why he was the best person to take on Trump in the primary and Biden in the general. I didn't see it. Christie is already working from a terrible position in the Republican primary and I don't see how a performance like this changes that when he really needed it to change. Best case scenario for Christie is that he'll have a second chance next time, but this debate did him no favors in boosting his position.

6. Tim Scott
I've read coverage joking about Scott being forgettable on the debate stage and then still forgotten Scott myself when thinking about how the candidates performed. These debates are not times for polite answers and then full silence. I know he's running on being the friendly one that everyone likes, but there's no way anyone seeing this performance will be writing out checks based on how he did. If I'm looking for that narrow set of Trump/DeSantis/Pence alternatives, Hayley did a much better job of positioning herself in that lane than Scott.

7. Doug Burgum
Burgum went in to the debate needing to lose his status as an unknown and failed. If you didn't know who he was going in, you don't know who he is going out. He's got a good excuse debating on a broken leg and he's got his personal wealth to keep funding his own campaign, but his long shot position didn't change and now he's another month closer to the election with the next set of debates having an even harder criteria for him to try again next time.

8. Asa Huchinson
Huchinson is in the same spot as Burgum except without the wealth or excuse for such a poor performance. He didn't break through in the way he needed to and I see no way for him to get a second attempt to do so either.


All in all, I'd say Pence, Ramaswamy, DeSantis, and Haley did what they needed to while Christie, Scott, Burgum, and Huchinson did not. Haley and Christie straddle the line of being winner/loser. I don't think either of them stood out in either direction as much as they needed to to fall squarely into either category. But they've got enough support to try again and they didn't crater out badly enough for that to change at least.

Thinking about it another way though, I think Scott is probably the biggest loser as he has the most to lose of those who did poorly. I'd expect Ramaswamy to get the biggest post-debate bump, but I don't see how that gets him to the Republican nomination in the end.