Does Biden do better than Beto 2018 in Texas?

[Radicalneo]

Does he

[Radicalneo]

Why or why not

[Old Man Willow]

I think not. My guess is his ceiling is around 47.5%. I think there's a certain kind of quasi moderate voter that Beto (before his presidential campaign) appealed to, who detested Cruz enough to vote for a Dem. I don't think Trump is as offensive to these people, or Biden as appealing as 2018 Beto.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Maybe with Trump, definitely not with anyone else

[TodayJunior]

About the same. Biden probably loses the state by 2.

[Skill and Chance]

I think not. My guess is his ceiling is around 47.5%. I think there's a certain kind of quasi moderate voter that Beto (before his presidential campaign) appealed to, who detested Cruz enough to vote for a Dem. I don't think Trump is as offensive to these people, or Biden as appealing as 2018 Beto.

Yes, I think 2018 was specifically a Cruz problem based on all the data since then.

[Mr. Smith]

He'll be lucky to reach 2020 results again.

[seskoog]

I voted yes, but only marginally. I think Biden loses TX by 1.5-2.5 in 2024

[Pres Mike]

I think not. My guess is his ceiling is around 47.5%. I think there's a certain kind of quasi moderate voter that Beto (before his presidential campaign) appealed to, who detested Cruz enough to vote for a Dem. I don't think Trump is as offensive to these people, or Biden as appealing as 2018 Beto.

Exactly. The 2018 governor race was 56-42%. Even with less ballots casted, Beto won a significant portion of Republicans. Not enough to get over the finish line, but much more than the norm in modern America. More cross over voters than expected.

Cruz is just that disguting. Remember, when the GOP had to pick between Cruz and Trump they picked Trump...

[Mr. Smith]

I think not. My guess is his ceiling is around 47.5%. I think there's a certain kind of quasi moderate voter that Beto (before his presidential campaign) appealed to, who detested Cruz enough to vote for a Dem. I don't think Trump is as offensive to these people, or Biden as appealing as 2018 Beto.

Exactly. The 2018 governor race was 56-42%. Even with less ballots casted, Beto won a significant portion of Republicans. Not enough to get over the finish line, but much more than the norm in modern America. More cross over voters than expected.

Cruz is just that disguting. Remember, when the GOP had to pick between Cruz and Trump they picked Trump...

Not here in Texas they didn't, the primary was a Cruz blowout, whereas Rubio actually lost his state.

Also gotta counter that O'Rourke '22 only shaved off 3 points from Valdez.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Depends on whether he faces Trump or DeSantis. Trump, possibly; DeSantis, unlikely.

[Spectator]

I think not. My guess is his ceiling is around 47.5%. I think there's a certain kind of quasi moderate voter that Beto (before his presidential campaign) appealed to, who detested Cruz enough to vote for a Dem. I don't think Trump is as offensive to these people, or Biden as appealing as 2018 Beto.

Exactly. The 2018 governor race was 56-42%. Even with less ballots casted, Beto won a significant portion of Republicans. Not enough to get over the finish line, but much more than the norm in modern America. More cross over voters than expected.

Cruz is just that disguting. Remember, when the GOP had to pick between Cruz and Trump they picked Trump...

Not here in Texas they didn't, the primary was a Cruz blowout, whereas Rubio actually lost his state.

Also gotta counter that O'Rourke '22 only shaved off 3 points from Valdez.

O’Rourke also Stacey Abramized himself by running for President and then Governor again. She obviously didn’t run for President in 2020, but she was openly campaigning for VP and talked obnoxiously about wanting to be President. You can’t just go back to running for Governor and expect to have the same appeal you once did after people know that you only see the office as a stepping stone.

[dw93]

Nope, but he might do better than he did in 2020 with Trump being the nominee again.

[DaleCooper]

I think not. My guess is his ceiling is around 47.5%. I think there's a certain kind of quasi moderate voter that Beto (before his presidential campaign) appealed to, who detested Cruz enough to vote for a Dem. I don't think Trump is as offensive to these people, or Biden as appealing as 2018 Beto.

Exactly. The 2018 governor race was 56-42%. Even with less ballots casted, Beto won a significant portion of Republicans. Not enough to get over the finish line, but much more than the norm in modern America. More cross over voters than expected.

Cruz is just that disguting. Remember, when the GOP had to pick between Cruz and Trump they picked Trump...

Not here in Texas they didn't, the primary was a Cruz blowout, whereas Rubio actually lost his state.

Also gotta counter that O'Rourke '22 only shaved off 3 points from Valdez.

O’Rourke also Stacey Abramized himself by running for President and then Governor again. She obviously didn’t run for President in 2020, but she was openly campaigning for VP and talked obnoxiously about wanting to be President. You can’t just go back to running for Governor and expect to have the same appeal you once did after people know that you only see the office as a stepping stone.

The fact that Abbott did worse in a Biden midterm than in 2018 even when running against the completely tarnished and ruined image of O'Rourke should be pretty unsettling to Republicans, honestly. I didn't even pay attention to 2022 Texas governor because I knew it was Safe R and figured O'Rourke would squander any gains the Democrats have been making in the state. This is the first time I realized he improved on the gubernatorial margin. Very interesting.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think not. My guess is his ceiling is around 47.5%. I think there's a certain kind of quasi moderate voter that Beto (before his presidential campaign) appealed to, who detested Cruz enough to vote for a Dem. I don't think Trump is as offensive to these people, or Biden as appealing as 2018 Beto.

Exactly. The 2018 governor race was 56-42%. Even with less ballots casted, Beto won a significant portion of Republicans. Not enough to get over the finish line, but much more than the norm in modern America. More cross over voters than expected.

Cruz is just that disguting. Remember, when the GOP had to pick between Cruz and Trump they picked Trump...

Not here in Texas they didn't, the primary was a Cruz blowout, whereas Rubio actually lost his state.

Also gotta counter that O'Rourke '22 only shaved off 3 points from Valdez.

O’Rourke also Stacey Abramized himself by running for President and then Governor again. She obviously didn’t run for President in 2020, but she was openly campaigning for VP and talked obnoxiously about wanting to be President. You can’t just go back to running for Governor and expect to have the same appeal you once did after people know that you only see the office as a stepping stone.

The fact that Abbott did worse in a Biden midterm than in 2018 even when running against the completely tarnished and ruined image of O'Rourke should be pretty unsettling to Republicans, honestly. I didn't even pay attention to 2022 Texas governor because I knew it was Safe R and figured O'Rourke would squander any gains the Democrats have been making in the state. This is the first time I realized he improved on the gubernatorial margin. Very interesting.

It's him going overboard on the trans issue with the policing parents

[here2view]

Beto got 48.33% of the vote, have a hard time seeing Biden eclipse that, especially considering that I expect there to be more third party voters in 2024 in a Biden v. Trump rematch.

I'd expect Trump 50 Biden 46 Other 4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We won't know until we get all the candidates for Sen, it depends on Allred it's wave insurance anyways we don't need TX

[S019]

I think he'll get close to Beto's performance, I'll say he narrowly does better, but he could do slightly worse.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes

[OriAr]

50/50 chance against Trump, DeSantis he'd be lucky to be within 8.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Unlikely. Biden loses by three or four points. He might come close, but Texas' leftward trend is still glacial.

[E-Dawg]

Unlikely. Biden loses by three or four points. He might come close, but Texas' leftward trend is still glacial.

2012: R+16
2016: R+9
2020: R+6
If this trend continues, the state will be only lean R in 2024, and will be a tossup in 2028. Of all the Trump 2020 states, I think Texas is the 2nd mostly likely to vote for Biden in 2024, just behind North Carolina.

[SnowLabrador]

No. In fact, Texas swings right.

[Spectator]

To answer the question, I think it’s 50-50. Right now I see the margin being around 2-3 points with Biden ending up right around the 2018 margin. Better numbers in DFW, Austin, and San Antonio canceled out by stronger R numbers in RGV and rural Texas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes