NJ anomalies in 2020
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  NJ anomalies in 2020
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jman123
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« on: April 10, 2023, 08:12:00 AM »
« edited: April 10, 2023, 08:16:52 AM by jman123 »

I have an hypothesis. NJ inner urban core Inner cities where minorities predominately dominate had swings to Trump. African American Areas had smaller swings to Trump while the more Hispanic urban areas of Northern Hudson County where Dominicans, Cubans, Central Americans, and South Americans predominate, saw more modest 10 point swings vis a vis 2016 on average to Trump. Daves redistricting App has officially the precinct results for NJ.

I Noticed that moving into predominately white suburban areas Trump's numbers in these communities suffered vis a vis 2016.

In 2016 Trump got 41 percent to Hillary 54 statewide.

In 2020 Trump got 41 Biden 57 statewide. Third party vote was far higher in 2016.

In 2016 Trump won or held his own in NJ suburbs while he performed dismally in the inner urban cores.

In 2020, things reversed. He cratered in the suburbs, while making inroads in the urban areas.
In 2020, I know a precinct in Union City and one in West New York Hudson County with a lot of Senior Cubans. Trump came within 15 votes of capturing that Union City precinct and hit 40 percent in the other one in West New York.  Both precincts have a senior citizen apartment complex with many Cubans. These precincts had Trump in the 30 percent range in 2016.

These towns in Northern Hudson County averaged 20 percent Trump in 2016 and 30 percent Trump 2020

Could Trump have conceivably hit 45 to 47 percent in NJ in 2020 had he held on to the urban gains and held his own in the suburbs?

Why did these urban areas that were so toxic to Trump in 2016 suddenly get 10 point swings to him in 2020?
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Redban
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« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2023, 08:37:35 AM »

I think something similar happened in NY. Trump got 23% of the NYC vote, a gain of nearly 6% from 2016. But he lost a lot in the Long Island / Westchester  suburbs + Upstate.

In 2016, Trump basically matched Hillary in NY State outside of NYC (67,000 votes for Hillary was the difference between them outside of NYC). In other words, NYC basically gave Hillary her win in NY State.

In 2020, though, NYC gave Biden a 1,630,077 advantage over Trump. Biden won the state by
1,992,889. That means Biden won all of NY, minus NYC, by 362,812 ... a near 300k improvement over Hillary outside NYC

If Trump hypothetically had matched Biden outside NYC (just as he had matched Hillary in 2016) and held on to his urban gains, he would've hit 42% in NY State (versus about 55-56% for Biden). A 42% performance in NY State lines up with a 45-47% performance in NJ
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jman123
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« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2023, 08:51:24 AM »

I think something similar happened in NY. Trump got 23% of the NYC vote, a gain of nearly 6% from 2016. But he lost a lot in the Long Island / Westchester  suburbs + Upstate.

In 2016, Trump basically matched Hillary in NY State outside of NYC (67,000 votes for Hillary was the difference between them outside of NYC). In other words, NYC basically gave Hillary her win in NY State.

In 2020, though, NYC gave Biden a 1,630,077 advantage over Trump. Biden won the state by
1,992,889. That means Biden won all of NY, minus NYC, by 362,812 ... a near 300k improvement over Hillary outside NYC

If Trump hypothetically had matched Biden outside NYC (just as he had matched Hillary in 2016) and held on to his urban gains, he would've hit 42% in NY State (versus about 55-56% for Biden). A 42% performance in NY State lines up with a 45-47% performance in NJ


It makes sense. My question is, why did he improve in the urban cores vis a vis 2016?
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Redban
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« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2023, 08:55:07 AM »
« Edited: April 10, 2023, 08:59:48 AM by Redban »

It makes sense. My question is, why did he improve in the urban cores vis a vis 2016?

In NYC, the argument is that the Dems had hit their ceiling there. They were getting about 80% of the vote in NYC in 2008, 2012, and 2016, which is a crazy high percentage. At some point, the needle had to move the other way, which happened in 2020. I guess the same argument for NYC applies to the other urban areas elsewhere: Dems simply hit their ceiling and had no way to go but down
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oldtimer
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« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2023, 01:18:04 PM »

I think something similar happened in NY. Trump got 23% of the NYC vote, a gain of nearly 6% from 2016. But he lost a lot in the Long Island / Westchester  suburbs + Upstate.

In 2016, Trump basically matched Hillary in NY State outside of NYC (67,000 votes for Hillary was the difference between them outside of NYC). In other words, NYC basically gave Hillary her win in NY State.

In 2020, though, NYC gave Biden a 1,630,077 advantage over Trump. Biden won the state by
1,992,889. That means Biden won all of NY, minus NYC, by 362,812 ... a near 300k improvement over Hillary outside NYC

If Trump hypothetically had matched Biden outside NYC (just as he had matched Hillary in 2016) and held on to his urban gains, he would've hit 42% in NY State (versus about 55-56% for Biden). A 42% performance in NY State lines up with a 45-47% performance in NJ


It makes sense. My question is, why did he improve in the urban cores vis a vis 2016?
Because that's where Minorities live.

And in the long process of switcheroo: Democrats gain the Upper Class White vote, while Republicans gain the Minority one.

Voters start to assort themselves along class lines, rather than race, a return to pre-1960's style but Republicans and Democrats switch places.

But it's a very long process that will last at least another decade to complete, maybe two.
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