Did Trump have larger % of black support than what Bush 2004 did?
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  Did Trump have larger % of black support than what Bush 2004 did?
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Author Topic: Did Trump have larger % of black support than what Bush 2004 did?  (Read 1497 times)
Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« on: March 17, 2023, 12:04:30 AM »

He got 12% compared to the 11% black support that George Bush got in 2004 marking the highest since the Gerald Ford presidency. Did he actually get it ?
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RFK 2024
BasedSanta
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« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2023, 11:12:47 AM »

As Mark Twain said there are lies, damned lies, and statistics, and you are well within bounds to challenge exit polling data, especially when it's within the margin of error.  I think it's safe to say Trump did do better with black people in 2020 than 2016, but I'm not sure how his performance compares with Bush 2004.  The easiest way to answer this would be to look at the data in historically black areas and compare the results.  Someone with a paid membership on Atlas could help here.  Cheesy
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Vosem
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« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2023, 04:26:28 PM »

As Mark Twain said there are lies, damned lies, and statistics, and you are well within bounds to challenge exit polling data, especially when it's within the margin of error.  I think it's safe to say Trump did do better with black people in 2020 than 2016, but I'm not sure how his performance compares with Bush 2004.  The easiest way to answer this would be to look at the data in historically black areas and compare the results.  Someone with a paid membership on Atlas could help here.  Cheesy

Yeah, the answer might be tough to say. This also wouldn't necessarily answer the question because African-Americans who vote Republican are disproportionately likely not to live in overwhelmingly African-American areas, which have always been more Democratic than the black vote as a whole. We'd also need to consider measures of residential segregation, and just how representative strongly black areas are of the black population as a whole.

(Jews are the reverse; strongly Jewish communities are usually either ultra-Orthodox or have lots of recent Jewish immigrants, and are likely to vote comparatively Republican, but more assimilated Jews who don't live in strongly Jewish areas tend to be strongly Democratic, such that the demographic as a whole is much more Democratic than you might initially guess. Native American reservations also vote much more Democratic than the Native American vote as a whole -- the population of people who want to live in strongly-X communities, and people who don't, are going to differ in consistent ways for any given X.)
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #3 on: March 18, 2023, 10:31:08 AM »

I can believe he got more support among black men, but there's no way he got more among black women.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2023, 05:17:10 PM »

I can believe he got more support among black men, but there's no way he got more among black women.
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Ragnaroni
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« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2023, 03:06:50 AM »

He got 12% compared to the 11% black support that George Bush got in 2004 marking the highest since the Gerald Ford presidency. Did he actually get it ?
Why did blacks vote for GERALD FORD?!
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RFK 2024
BasedSanta
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« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2023, 07:38:34 AM »

He got 12% compared to the 11% black support that George Bush got in 2004 marking the highest since the Gerald Ford presidency. Did he actually get it ?
Why did blacks vote for GERALD FORD?!

Residual support from the early-mid 20th century.  A lot of southern Dems were still associated with segregationist politics.  Plus he was certainly more appealing than Goldwater or Nixon.

(Carter still won the black vote by a huge amount)
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2023, 09:44:19 AM »

He got 12% compared to the 11% black support that George Bush got in 2004 marking the highest since the Gerald Ford presidency. Did he actually get it ?
Why did blacks vote for GERALD FORD?!

Residual support from the early-mid 20th century.  A lot of southern Dems were still associated with segregationist politics.  Plus he was certainly more appealing than Goldwater or Nixon.

(Carter still won the black vote by a huge amount)
Ford also didn't pander to or dogwhistle to racists to anywhere near the extent Nixon or Reagan did. He was also a fundamentally decent man and, unusually for his time, wasn't personally racist. While in Congress, he voted for every major Civil Rights and Voting Rights Act in the 50s and 60s. A well-known story about him is that during his college football career for the University of Michigan, he initially refused to play against Georgia Tech because they'd demanded that UM's only Black player and Ford's good friend, Willis Ward, not take the field, with Ford only agreeing to play after Ward talked to him and told him to.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2023, 09:51:55 AM »

He got 12% compared to the 11% black support that George Bush got in 2004 marking the highest since the Gerald Ford presidency. Did he actually get it ?
Why did blacks vote for GERALD FORD?!

Residual support from the early-mid 20th century.  A lot of southern Dems were still associated with segregationist politics.  Plus he was certainly more appealing than Goldwater or Nixon.

(Carter still won the black vote by a huge amount)
Ford also didn't pander to or dogwhistle to racists to anywhere near the extent Nixon or Reagan did. He was also a fundamentally decent man and, unusually for his time, wasn't personally racist. While in Congress, he voted for every major Civil Rights and Voting Rights Act in the 50s and 60s. A well-known story about him is that during his college football career for the University of Michigan, he initially refused to play against Georgia Tech because they'd demanded that UM's only Black player and Ford's good friend, Willis Ward, not take the field, with Ford only agreeing to play after Ward talked to him and told him to.

This. The Ford-Dole '76 and the Dole-Kemp '96 tickets did well with black voters....period
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