NJ anomalies in 2020 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 29, 2024, 11:08:24 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  NJ anomalies in 2020 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NJ anomalies in 2020  (Read 807 times)
Redban
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,982


« on: April 10, 2023, 08:37:35 AM »

I think something similar happened in NY. Trump got 23% of the NYC vote, a gain of nearly 6% from 2016. But he lost a lot in the Long Island / Westchester  suburbs + Upstate.

In 2016, Trump basically matched Hillary in NY State outside of NYC (67,000 votes for Hillary was the difference between them outside of NYC). In other words, NYC basically gave Hillary her win in NY State.

In 2020, though, NYC gave Biden a 1,630,077 advantage over Trump. Biden won the state by
1,992,889. That means Biden won all of NY, minus NYC, by 362,812 ... a near 300k improvement over Hillary outside NYC

If Trump hypothetically had matched Biden outside NYC (just as he had matched Hillary in 2016) and held on to his urban gains, he would've hit 42% in NY State (versus about 55-56% for Biden). A 42% performance in NY State lines up with a 45-47% performance in NJ
Logged
Redban
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,982


« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2023, 08:55:07 AM »
« Edited: April 10, 2023, 08:59:48 AM by Redban »

It makes sense. My question is, why did he improve in the urban cores vis a vis 2016?

In NYC, the argument is that the Dems had hit their ceiling there. They were getting about 80% of the vote in NYC in 2008, 2012, and 2016, which is a crazy high percentage. At some point, the needle had to move the other way, which happened in 2020. I guess the same argument for NYC applies to the other urban areas elsewhere: Dems simply hit their ceiling and had no way to go but down
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.02 seconds with 13 queries.