2023 NCAA conference realignment (12/20: the PAC-2 join the WCC)

[Dereich]

Rumor is Big 10 adds Oregon, Washington, FSU and Clemson this week.

I'm very skeptical. If ACC teams are available, the Big 10 would be going for North Carolina and Virginia.

I mean, I guess it's possible that UNC and UVA have chosen the SEC over the Big 10, while Florida State and Clemson chose the Big 10 over the SEC, but that would be pretty surprising.

If the idea is that the Big10 and SEC are planning to become two super conferences and ditch the NCAA (something likely to happen sooner or later!) taking Clemson and FSU, the two most financially valuable teams in the ACC, makes sense. Both schools are great for TV ratings, would assist current members in recruiting the south, and keep more value away from the SEC.

Clemson and FSU would leap at it too; its hard to underemphasize just how bad the ACC grant of rights is. ACC schools are already making $10 million less a year than Big10 schools and $18 million less yearly than SEC schools, a gap guaranteed to widen as college football in particular becomes more and more profitable and the contract does not allow for payment amounts to be renegotiated. There's real danger that ACC schools will not be able to compete as top tier programs due to the financial gap with the other conferences within a decade if this keeps up. And they're stuck in the deal until 2036. That's the whole reason I don't believe the current round of rumors; not because it doesn't make sense but because I don't believe anyone has figured out how to break the GoR contract.

[7,052,770]

Rumor is Big 10 adds Oregon, Washington, FSU and Clemson this week.

I'm very skeptical. If ACC teams are available, the Big 10 would be going for North Carolina and Virginia.

I mean, I guess it's possible that UNC and UVA have chosen the SEC over the Big 10, while Florida State and Clemson chose the Big 10 over the SEC, but that would be pretty surprising.

If the idea is that the Big10 and SEC are planning to become two super conferences and ditch the NCAA (something likely to happen sooner or later!) taking Clemson and FSU, the two most financially valuable teams in the ACC, makes sense. Both schools are great for TV ratings, would assist current members in recruiting the south, and keep more value away from the SEC.

Clemson and FSU would leap at it too; its hard to underemphasize just how bad the ACC grant of rights is. ACC schools are already making $10 million less a year than Big10 schools and $18 million less yearly than SEC schools, a gap guaranteed to widen as college football in particular becomes more and more profitable and the contract does not allow for payment amounts to be renegotiated. There's real danger that ACC schools will not be able to compete as top tier programs due to the financial gap with the other conferences within a decade if this keeps up. And they're stuck in the deal until 2036. That's the whole reason I don't believe the current round of rumors; not because it doesn't make sense but because I don't believe anyone has figured out how to break the GoR contract.

My understanding (and you never know what's really true on the Internet) is that the ACC can dissolve the conference with a majority vote, which would be 8. So if you have 8 schools leaving for some combination of Big 10/SEC, it could happen.

However, ESPN has the contract for both the ACC and SEC, so they don't really want to cannibalize their own markets unless the Big 10 basically forces them to.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/pac-12-commish-presents-potential-tv-deal-to-school-leaders-with-no-agreement-being-reached-per-reports/

Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff presented details for a potential media rights deal to leaders from member institutions at a meeting on Tuesday, though ultimately no agreement was reached, according to multiple reports. Another meeting is planned soon with both sides remaining hopeful a deal can be reached.

According to ESPN, the proposed deal was streaming-centric through Apple and would incentivize tiers with an upside if certain subscription numbers are met. The agreement would start in 2024-25 and begin with a relatively low payout relative to what league members had hoped. Compensation would incrementally improve, with high-end estimates that would be competitive with the Big 12 and ACC in the future.

Judging by that deal, I would expect Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State and possibly Stanford to announce their exits imminently. (the only one of that group without an obvious destination is Stanford, though I think the Big Ten would take them if they asked.)

[NewYorkExpress]

The Big Ten has begun preliminary discussions to add Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford.

The Big Ten has begun exploratory discussions about expanding membership to 18 or even 20 teams, industry sources have told Yahoo Sports. The schools being considered are Oregon and Washington if the league adds two schools, and Cal and Stanford if it wants to move to 20. All four institutions are currently members of the Pac-12.

The discussions are in the very early stages, sources caution. No decision, including on whether to expand or stay put at 16 teams, has been made or is considered imminent.

[7,052,770]

The Big Ten has begun preliminary discussions to add Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford.

The Big Ten has begun exploratory discussions about expanding membership to 18 or even 20 teams, industry sources have told Yahoo Sports. The schools being considered are Oregon and Washington if the league adds two schools, and Cal and Stanford if it wants to move to 20. All four institutions are currently members of the Pac-12.

The discussions are in the very early stages, sources caution. No decision, including on whether to expand or stay put at 16 teams, has been made or is considered imminent.

Congrats to Cal if true, the biggest winner in all of realignment.

[Storr]

The Big Ten has begun preliminary discussions to add Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford.

The Big Ten has begun exploratory discussions about expanding membership to 18 or even 20 teams, industry sources have told Yahoo Sports. The schools being considered are Oregon and Washington if the league adds two schools, and Cal and Stanford if it wants to move to 20. All four institutions are currently members of the Pac-12.

The discussions are in the very early stages, sources caution. No decision, including on whether to expand or stay put at 16 teams, has been made or is considered imminent.

Congrats to Cal if true, the biggest winner in all of realignment.

It's weird how all these huge things are happening, while the ACC is just sitting there doing nothing.

I think if they're going to do anything, it'll be poaching Oregon and Washington. They're the best brands left in the Pac-9 (I'm still not used to that).

While you're at it, you might as well add Cal and Stanford because they're excellent academically (something the ACC cares too much about) which would create a western wing of the conference.

That would place the ACC solidly as the 3rd best conference in the nation, increasing the conference's value significantly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Big Ten has begun preliminary discussions to add Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford.

The Big Ten has begun exploratory discussions about expanding membership to 18 or even 20 teams, industry sources have told Yahoo Sports. The schools being considered are Oregon and Washington if the league adds two schools, and Cal and Stanford if it wants to move to 20. All four institutions are currently members of the Pac-12.

The discussions are in the very early stages, sources caution. No decision, including on whether to expand or stay put at 16 teams, has been made or is considered imminent.

Congrats to Cal if true, the biggest winner in all of realignment.

It's weird how all these huge things are happening, while the ACC is just sitting there doing nothing.

I think if they're going to do anything, it'll be poaching Oregon and Washington. They're the best brands left in the Pac-9 (I'm still not used to that).

While you're at it, you might as well add Cal and Stanford because they're excellent academically (something the ACC cares too much about) which would create a western wing of the conference.

That would place the ACC solidly as the 3rd best conference in the nation, increasing the conference's value significantly.

Why would another P5 team want to move to the ACC, which is stuck with a mediocre TV deal until 2036?  I suspect several of its current members would have already bolted if not for the grant-of-rights in their deal.  The only way I can see the ACC expanding in the near term would be to pick up some solid non-P5 programs, e.g. Memphis or UConn.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The Big Ten has begun preliminary discussions to add Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford.

The Big Ten has begun exploratory discussions about expanding membership to 18 or even 20 teams, industry sources have told Yahoo Sports. The schools being considered are Oregon and Washington if the league adds two schools, and Cal and Stanford if it wants to move to 20. All four institutions are currently members of the Pac-12.

The discussions are in the very early stages, sources caution. No decision, including on whether to expand or stay put at 16 teams, has been made or is considered imminent.

Congrats to Cal if true, the biggest winner in all of realignment.

It's weird how all these huge things are happening, while the ACC is just sitting there doing nothing.

I think if they're going to do anything, it'll be poaching Oregon and Washington. They're the best brands left in the Pac-9 (I'm still not used to that).

While you're at it, you might as well add Cal and Stanford because they're excellent academically (something the ACC cares too much about) which would create a western wing of the conference.

That would place the ACC solidly as the 3rd best conference in the nation, increasing the conference's value significantly.

Cal and Stanford would detract from its already distant fourth place value. And I'm not sure I'm willing to tune in for Oregon vs. Virginia personally (or Duke, or Syracuse, or most of the conference facing a randomly superior west coast opponent) - certainly not nearly as much as any game in the current configuration.

[Storr]

The Big Ten has begun preliminary discussions to add Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford.

The Big Ten has begun exploratory discussions about expanding membership to 18 or even 20 teams, industry sources have told Yahoo Sports. The schools being considered are Oregon and Washington if the league adds two schools, and Cal and Stanford if it wants to move to 20. All four institutions are currently members of the Pac-12.

The discussions are in the very early stages, sources caution. No decision, including on whether to expand or stay put at 16 teams, has been made or is considered imminent.

Congrats to Cal if true, the biggest winner in all of realignment.

It's weird how all these huge things are happening, while the ACC is just sitting there doing nothing.

I think if they're going to do anything, it'll be poaching Oregon and Washington. They're the best brands left in the Pac-9 (I'm still not used to that).

While you're at it, you might as well add Cal and Stanford because they're excellent academically (something the ACC cares too much about) which would create a western wing of the conference.

That would place the ACC solidly as the 3rd best conference in the nation, increasing the conference's value significantly.

Why would another P5 team want to move to the ACC, which is stuck with a mediocre TV deal until 2036?  I suspect several of its current members would have already bolted if not for the grant-of-rights in their deal.  The only way I can see the ACC expanding in the near term would be to pick up some solid non-P5 programs, e.g. Memphis or UConn.

I agree picking up solid non-P5 teams is the most likely outcome for the ACC. It's clear Oregon and Washington want to join the B1G. But if they don't get invited, I could imagine them joining the ACC if the PAC 12 doesn't get a media rights done deal soon.

If the ACC sits around and continues to do nothing in the era of Superconferes, it will die. The SEC will pick off FSU and Clemson. Then the B1G will pick off UNC and UVA.

[Fight for Trump]

I agree picking up solid non-P5 teams is the most likely outcome for the ACC. It's clear Oregon and Washington want to join the B1G. But if they don't get invited, I could imagine them joining the ACC if the PAC 12 doesn't get a media rights done deal soon.

If the ACC sits around and continues to do nothing in the era of Superconferes, it will die. The SEC will pick off FSU and Clemson. Then the B1G will pick off UNC and UVA.

The rump Pac-12 is still better than the ACC. Even if they can't get into the Big Ten, Washington and Oregon could walk into the Big 12 and become immediate top dogs in a better conference. And if the Big Ten wanted to scavenge the corpse of the ACC, Duke would be the logical partner to UNC which is the obvious biggest prize.

[Storr]

I agree picking up solid non-P5 teams is the most likely outcome for the ACC. It's clear Oregon and Washington want to join the B1G. But if they don't get invited, I could imagine them joining the ACC if the PAC 12 doesn't get a media rights done deal soon.

If the ACC sits around and continues to do nothing in the era of Superconferes, it will die. The SEC will pick off FSU and Clemson. Then the B1G will pick off UNC and UVA.

The rump Pac-12 is still better than the ACC. Even if they can't get into the Big Ten, Washington and Oregon could walk into the Big 12 and become immediate top dogs in a better conference. And if the Big Ten wanted to scavenge the corpse of the ACC, Duke would be the logical partner to UNC which is the obvious biggest prize.

That's a good point. A ten team Pac-12 (9 + SDSU) is still in a better spot than the ACC and it's terrible TV deal which doesn't end until 2036. The ACC is in a uniquely bad spot for P5 conferences, having so many small private schools dragging it down. Sure the SEC has Vanderbilt, the B1G has Northwestern, and the Pac-12 has Stanford. But those conferences don't have five private schools. With the only one having done much of anything in revenue sports for the last quarter century being Duke basketball. Does Wake Forest vs. Boston College bring in many eyeballs? Nope.

I want the ACC to survive. But I just don't see how it can as long as the schools in the conference have an ever growing gap in yearly media rights revenue compared to schools in other conferences.

[Dereich]

I agree picking up solid non-P5 teams is the most likely outcome for the ACC. It's clear Oregon and Washington want to join the B1G. But if they don't get invited, I could imagine them joining the ACC if the PAC 12 doesn't get a media rights done deal soon.

If the ACC sits around and continues to do nothing in the era of Superconferes, it will die. The SEC will pick off FSU and Clemson. Then the B1G will pick off UNC and UVA.

The rump Pac-12 is still better than the ACC. Even if they can't get into the Big Ten, Washington and Oregon could walk into the Big 12 and become immediate top dogs in a better conference. And if the Big Ten wanted to scavenge the corpse of the ACC, Duke would be the logical partner to UNC which is the obvious biggest prize.

That's a good point. A ten team Pac-12 (9 + SDSU) is still in a better spot than the ACC and it's terrible TV deal which doesn't end until 2036. The ACC is in a uniquely bad spot for P5 conferences, having so many small private schools dragging it down. Sure the SEC has Vanderbilt, the B1G has Northwestern, and the Pac-12 has Stanford. But those conferences don't have five private schools. With the only one having done much of anything in revenue sports for the last quarter century being Duke basketball. Does Wake Forest vs. Boston College bring in many eyeballs? Nope.

I want the ACC to survive. But I just don't see how it can as long as the schools in the conference have an ever growing gap in yearly media rights revenue compared to schools in other conferences.

I'm the forum's number one ACC grant of rights hater and I might have agreed with this take a week ago...but have y'all seen the news thats been coming out about the Pac-12's new media deal? It hasn't been signed yet, but its been leaked enough (and the leaks spread by major news media) that they're being offered a streaming-only subscription based media deal. The ACC's issue is that their deal leaves them stagnant for over a decade while the sport as a whole continues to increase in profitability. The Pac-12's issue with this new media deal is that if subscriptions are low (and they already were to the previous Pac-12 network when their biggest names hadn't left!) their yearly revenue will be cut in half! That the deal was going to be this bad is almost certainly why Colorado announced its departure now and why the Arizonas will soon follow.

The ACC is in no state to attract new people, but the Pac-12 looks to be just about done as a power conference with no hope of salvation. On that note, I have to give it to the Big 12. When Texas and Oklahoma left I thought they were about to slip into being a non-power but they've really put in the effort and are establishing themselves as still relevant. Colorado going back to them just solidifies that in the current pecking order Big 12>>>Pac 12, something that wasn't a sure thing a few years ago!

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1687157744682283008?s=20

[NewYorkExpress]

Utah, Arizona and Arizona State could be announced as Big Twelve members as soon as tomorrow according to Jason Scheer.

Although it is not completely finalized yet, sources indicate that Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah are all likely to join the Big 12. One source said that it would have to fall apart for the three schools not to make the move and the ideal plan for the Big 12 is to make the biggest possible impact, which is announcing all three at once. Although it is not set in stone, there could be an announcement as soon as Friday.

[Storr]

Utah, Arizona and Arizona State could be announced as Big Twelve members as soon as tomorrow according to Jason Scheer.

Although it is not completely finalized yet, sources indicate that Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah are all likely to join the Big 12. One source said that it would have to fall apart for the three schools not to make the move and the ideal plan for the Big 12 is to make the biggest possible impact, which is announcing all three at once. Although it is not set in stone, there could be an announcement as soon as Friday.

If that happens, the B1G will immediately pick up Washington and Oregon.

[7,052,770]

I'll say it again- the Ivy League should embrace NIL and move up to the FBS, and Stanford should join it if the Big 10 doesn't invite them. Same for Rice.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'll say it again- the Ivy League should embrace NIL and move up to the FBS, and Stanford should join it if the Big 10 doesn't invite them. Same for Rice.

It's never going to happen. The Ivy's are stodgy and melodramatic about amateurism. In fact, I'll wager that the Ivy League is more likely to leave the NCAA and go and do their own thing than SEC and Big Ten are, so they can go back to players not getting compensated for playing.

[7,052,770]

I'll say it again- the Ivy League should embrace NIL and move up to the FBS, and Stanford should join it if the Big 10 doesn't invite them. Same for Rice.

It's never going to happen. The Ivy's are stodgy and melodramatic about amateurism. In fact, I'll wager that the Ivy League is more likely to leave the NCAA and go and do their own thing than SEC and Big Ten are, so they can go back to players not getting compensated for playing.

Yeah, they'd have to change their attitude, but a 10-team league with Stanford and Rice (or imagine a 14-team league with Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Duke, and Tulane) would have deep pocket$ and could probably make themselves the 4th best overall conference athletically if it really committed.

[Storr]

I'll say it again- the Ivy League should embrace NIL and move up to the FBS, and Stanford should join it if the Big 10 doesn't invite them. Same for Rice.

It's never going to happen. The Ivy's are stodgy and melodramatic about amateurism. In fact, I'll wager that the Ivy League is more likely to leave the NCAA and go and do their own thing than SEC and Big Ten are, so they can go back to players not getting compensated for playing.

Yeah, they'd have to change their attitude, but a 10-team league with Stanford and Rice (or imagine a 14-team league with Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Duke, and Tulane) would have deep pocket$ and could probably make themselves the 4th best overall conference athletically if it really committed.

In an alternate universe, a Southern Ivy league was created in the early 60s:

"The effort to create a Southern athletic conference originated during the 1950s. Harvie Branscomb, then-chancellor at Vanderbilt University, originally attempted to establish a rivalry between Vanderbilt and traditional Ivy League schools to foster relationships with academically-oriented schools. The school followed through on this effort and played a game against Yale in October 1948. However, after the Vanderbilt Commodores shut out the Yale Bulldogs, 35-0, Yale said they no longer wanted to play Vanderbilt. This caused Branscomb to call a meeting with the presidents of other Southern private universities in the late 1950s—Southern Methodist University (SMU), Emory University, Rice University, Duke University and Tulane University— where Branscomb suggested they try to establish a new sports conference where small, academically-inclined private schools could compete."

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1687262837582798848?s=20

[7,052,770]

I just want to say that I feel absolutely horrible for the fans of Oregon State and Washington State. It's not right what's happening to them.

[NewYorkExpress]

I just want to say that I feel absolutely horrible for the fans of Oregon State and Washington State. It's not right what's happening to them.

Both Oregon State and Washington State fit in nicely in the Mountain West or American, so it's not like they don't have somewhere to go if the PAC-12 really does collapse.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1687262837582798848?s=20

Another tweet with no mention of ASU...

https://twitter.com/RossDellenger/status/1687279556695146496?s=20

[7,052,770]

I just want to say that I feel absolutely horrible for the fans of Oregon State and Washington State. It's not right what's happening to them.

Both Oregon State and Washington State fit in nicely in the Mountain West or American, so it's not like they don't have somewhere to go if the PAC-12 really does collapse.

Well yeah they'll go to the Mountain West, but it really sucks that they have been kicked out of the "power conferences" through no fault of their own.

Even if they hold on to the Pac name and invite the better MWC/AAC teams to join, that's still not going to be considered a power conference.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I just want to say that I feel absolutely horrible for the fans of Oregon State and Washington State. It's not right what's happening to them.

Both Oregon State and Washington State fit in nicely in the Mountain West or American, so it's not like they don't have somewhere to go if the PAC-12 really does collapse.

Well yeah they'll go to the Mountain West, but it really sucks that they have been kicked out of the "power conferences" through no fault of their own.

Even if they hold on to the Pac name and invite the better MWC/AAC teams to join, that's still not going to be considered a power conference.

I'm mostly with you for once, but Wazzu is a better fit in the Mountain West with 24k students in a micropolitan area and limited legacy. I don't buy that these mythical "power" conference that we pine for, with a history of, like, 25 years are anything special that all constituents deserve a seat by obscure historical association. I don't feel any less bad than VMI getting stuck in the Southern Conference which remains a reasonable fit to this day, whereas all other members became national powers. I wish for the rivalries, but in lieu of that, entities that fail to grow must be left behind.

Teams only should play teams that they have special or logical ties to. Washington State's chances of national success should be no higher than San Diego State or Boise State (and truly the best peers may even be Utah State and Colorado State).


I'm holding out hope that it will just be Arizona for now and the Pac-8 makes the necessary invites to last a couple more years.