Turkey elections 2023

[Logical]

21.5% reporting

60.7% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
39.3% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

28.1% reporting

59.2% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
40.8% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

[Sir Mohamed]

10.8% reporting:

64.3% Erdogan
35.7% Kilcdaroglu

Looks like a 55-45 Erdoğan win based on these early trends. Much bigger than I would have expected. 

Yup. That has been pretty much my prediction since the 1st round, which I already predicted almost spot on.

[jaichind]

Erdogan ahead in Istanbul  51 to 49

[jaichind]

10.8% reporting:

64.3% Erdogan
35.7% Kilcdaroglu

Looks like a 55-45 Erdoğan win based on these early trends. Much bigger than I would have expected. 

Yup. That has been pretty much my prediction since the 1st round, which I already predicted almost spot on.

Congrats. I totally missed this one. I was sure the victory magin would be small.

[Logical]

28.1% reporting

59.2% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
40.8% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

35.8% reporting

58% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
42% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

[Double Carpet]

Counting pretty fast now, but weird that the results aren't on TV yet?

[jaichind]

35.8% reporting:

58% Erdogan
42% Kilcdaroglu

Now it more seems like 54.5-45.5

[Logical]

35.8% reporting

58% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
42% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

42.8% reporting

57.1% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
42.9% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

[Storr]

Erdogan ahead in Istanbul  51 to 49

Now ahead 50.7 to 49.3 with 16.8% reporting.

[Logical]

42.8% reporting

57.1% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
42.9% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

49.4% reporting

56.4% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
43.6% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

[Storr]

Erdogan ahead in Istanbul  51 to 49

Now ahead 50.7 to 49.3 with 16.8% reporting.

Now ahead 50.3 to 49.7 with 22.7% reporting (of ballot boxes opened)

[Mike88]

Erdogan ahead in Istanbul  51 to 49

Now ahead 50.7 to 49.3 with 16.8% reporting.

The trend points that Kılıçdaroğlu will likely win Istanbul. We'll see.

[MRCVzla]

Meanwhile, in the ANKA agency parallel opposition count:
https://halktv.com.tr/secim-2023-2

51.85% reported
Kılıçdaroğlu 51.12%
Erdoğan 48.88%

I prefer to believe the Anadolu count, in the first round the ANKA count stopped at 99.9%, with the differences respect to the YSK official result of 0.3% off to RTE and 0.2% up to KK.

[jaichind]

56.4% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
43.6% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

Kılıçdaroğlu is gaining ground.  Now trends point to a 54-46 win

[Logical]

49.4% reporting

56.4% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
43.6% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

55.1% reporting

55.8% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
44.2% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

[Mike88]

Meanwhile, in the ANKA agency parallel opposition count:
https://halktv.com.tr/secim-2023-2

51.85% reported
Kılıçdaroğlu 51.12%
Erdoğan 48.88%

I prefer to believe the Anadolu count, in the first round the ANKA count stopped at 99.9%, with the differences respect to the YSK official result of 0.3% off to RTE and 0.2% up to KK.

The Anadolu count has more Erdogan areas counted while ANKA has more Kılıçdaroğlu counts. When the ballots were basically all counted, in the first round, both agencies had the same results.

[Storr]

Erdogan ahead in Istanbul  51 to 49

Now ahead 50.7 to 49.3 with 16.8% reporting.

Now ahead 50.3 to 49.7 with 22.7% reporting (of ballot boxes opened)

Now Kilicdaroglu up 50.0 (1.424.510 votes) to 50.0 (1.423.220 votes) with 29% reporting (of ballot boxes opened).

[Logical]

Poor turnout in Kurdish provinces canceled out by lower turnout in the Anatolian plateau and the Black Sea region.

[Storr]

Erdogan ahead in Istanbul  51 to 49

Now ahead 50.7 to 49.3 with 16.8% reporting.

Now ahead 50.3 to 49.7 with 22.7% reporting (of ballot boxes opened)

Now Kilicdaroglu up 50.0 (1.424.510 votes) to 50.0 (1.423.220 votes) with 29% reporting (of ballot boxes opened).

Now Kilicdaroglu up 50.2 to 49.8 with 36.4% reporting (of ballot boxes opened) in Istanbul.

[jaichind]

61.4% reporting:

55.3% Erdogan
44.7% Kilcdaroglu

Kilcdaroglu continues to gain relative ground. Now it looks more like 53.5-46.5

[Logical]

55.1% reporting

55.8% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
44.2% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

61.4% reporting

55.3% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
44.7% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

[Logical]

61.4% reporting

55.3% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
44.7% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

66.7% reporting

54.8% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
45.2% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

[Storr]

First province with 100% of votes counted is Bayburt:

Erdogan:
First round - 78.9%

Second round - 82.5%

Kılıçdaroğlu:
First round: - 15.4%

Second round: - 17.5%

[Logical]

First province with 100% of votes counted is Bayburt:

Erdogan:
First round - 78.9%

Second round - 82.5%

Kılıçdaroğlu:
First round: - 15.4%

Second round: - 17.5%

You should list turnout too.

[Logical]

66.7% reporting

54.8% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
45.2% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

71.4% reporting

54.4% Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
45.6% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu