Is Dom, Is Good: NSW State Election (March 25)

[JimJamUK]

Election after election the media breathlessly reports about an impending hung parliament yet the Australian voters have a knack for picking a winner. I think if Labor’s over 51% 2pp they’ll get a majority regardless of what uniform swing says.

What seats are you thinking will flip?

[Хahar 🤔]

Blue Mountains - it's hard to believe that this was traditionally the bellweather seat in New South Wales looking at results this century. The Tories probably only won in 2011 because of vote-splitting and Labor won easily here in 2015 and 2019. Frankly, the bigger long-term threat is the Greens.

This area doesn't feel obviously left-wing to me, so it's interesting that it's a Labor safe seat now. Does the tourism industry have a major impact here? If so, is there anywhere else in Australia where this is the case?

Penrith - along with East Hills, this is the Liberals most marginal seat. And unlike East Hills, Ayres doesn't have a sophmore surge to bail him out and has had a few corruption allegations (though he has since been cleared). Yet it sounds like this is basically a total tossup. Perhaps the strong Liberal results in Penrith federally help, perhaps it's a case of Ayres throwing the kitchen sink at the seat, perhaps Labor should've chosen a better candidate. What does worry me is that if Labor can't win the seat, it'll be hard for them to get to a position where they're likely to win barring some very weird swings....

There are some local issues here, right? Penrith has the best team in the world and the Coalition government has been very firm on dumping a whole bunch of money specifically in Penrith to get that team a new stadium. On current polling it shouldn't matter, but it would make sense to me if the swing to Labor here were much weaker than in similar areas.

[Logical]

Does any party plan to switch the electoral system from OPV to FPV?

[adma]

I don't claim to know anything about state politics in NSW, but I just saw a clip of Dominic Perrotet speaking and my visceral reaction was "what creepy looking guy. Looks like he could be cast as the sadistic headmaster of private school for boys".

Is he seen as an asset or a liability for the Coalition?

Don’s somewhere in the middle imo. But NSW politics doesn’t exactly have high standards lmfao. And after dealing with Keneally’s horrendous Yankee accent for a few years literally anyone else is a PR improvement.

Middle class voters and Catholics like Dom because he reminds them of their private school values they defend to the death imo tbh jao

Think of him as Pierre Poilievre with an added layer of hardcore Catholicism.  So yeah, he's unlikeable.  (And he has a Thierry Baudet-type preoccupation w/bulldozing Brutalist buildings.)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I don't claim to know anything about state politics in NSW, but I just saw a clip of Dominic Perrotet speaking and my visceral reaction was "what creepy looking guy. Looks like he could be cast as the sadistic headmaster of private school for boys".

Is he seen as an asset or a liability for the Coalition?

Don’s somewhere in the middle imo. But NSW politics doesn’t exactly have high standards lmfao. And after dealing with Keneally’s horrendous Yankee accent for a few years literally anyone else is a PR improvement.

Middle class voters and Catholics like Dom because he reminds them of their private school values they defend to the death imo tbh jao

Think of him as Pierre Poilievre with an added layer of hardcore Catholicism.  So yeah, he's unlikeable.  (And he has a Thierry Baudet-type preoccupation w/bulldozing Brutalist buildings.)

That is an incredibly bad description lol. Rather than being some libertarian policy wonk ideological warrior, Don’s defining feature is the fact he has 11 siblings and 7 children. “Dull Suburban Catholic family man” writ large. Fairly pragmatic, big social conscience, knows when to keep his mouth shut etc.

And building old buildings is a 100% bipartisan position across all Australian state parties. Redevelopment brings profit for businesses and jobs for construction unions, a true win-win.

[morgieb]

Blue Mountains - it's hard to believe that this was traditionally the bellweather seat in New South Wales looking at results this century. The Tories probably only won in 2011 because of vote-splitting and Labor won easily here in 2015 and 2019. Frankly, the bigger long-term threat is the Greens.

This area doesn't feel obviously left-wing to me, so it's interesting that it's a Labor safe seat now. Does the tourism industry have a major impact here? If so, is there anywhere else in Australia where this is the case?

Kinda, yeah. The western part of the seat in particular is pretty treechangery, kinda hippie-ish and sort of working-class in parts. Actually a lot of Australia that does behave like the Blue Mountains - Byron obviously has some parallels, but it also kind of exists in places like the Surf Coast and the Yarra Ranges in Victoria, and a large part of the reason why the northern suburbs of Wollongong is strongly left-wing.

There's also the fact that much of the seat is standard middle-class suburbs which is marginal territory but is obviously a more natural fit for Labor than rural areas.

Penrith - along with East Hills, this is the Liberals most marginal seat. And unlike East Hills, Ayres doesn't have a sophmore surge to bail him out and has had a few corruption allegations (though he has since been cleared). Yet it sounds like this is basically a total tossup. Perhaps the strong Liberal results in Penrith federally help, perhaps it's a case of Ayres throwing the kitchen sink at the seat, perhaps Labor should've chosen a better candidate. What does worry me is that if Labor can't win the seat, it'll be hard for them to get to a position where they're likely to win barring some very weird swings....

There are some local issues here, right? Penrith has the best team in the world and the Coalition government has been very firm on dumping a whole bunch of money specifically in Penrith to get that team a new stadium. On current polling it shouldn't matter, but it would make sense to me if the swing to Labor here were much weaker than in similar areas.

Ehhh, I'm not sure what Penrith have done in the NRL has really influenced things. Part of the issue is that Emma Husar (the former Labor MP for Lindsay) self-imploded, but also I think it's a case of the more #populist image of Scott Morrison played well here compared to other parts of Sydney. I think demographic change and growth of new suburbia has helped the Liberals here too. It doesn't help Labor that the seat is very white, for example (whereas new suburbs with a lot of Asian migrants tend to be quite marginal).

[morgieb]

Final predictions, done in terms of probability:

Competitive Coalition v Labor seats:

Likely Labor gain: Parramatta
Labor leaning: East Hills, Riverstone, Penrith
Toss-up: Winston Hills, Goulburn, Holsworthy, Oatley, Ryde, Monaro, Drummoyne
Coalition advantage: Upper Hunter, Tweed, Camden, Badgerys Creek, South Coast*

Competitive Coalition v Other seats:

Likely Independent gain: Kiama*
Toss-up: Wollondilly
Liberal advantage: Wakehurst, Pittwater, Manly, North Shore, Willoughby, Lane Cove, Myall Lakes

Non-Coalition seats:

Toss-up: Murray
Lean hold: Barwon, Leppington*
Likely hold: Heathcote*, Bega, The Entrance, Londonderry

Others to watch:

Lismore - Likely Labor but potential for Greens?
South Coast - three-way battle, advantage Coalition I guess

So Labor to gain 8 seats, taking them to 46. I think at this point it'll take a freak result for the Coalition to hang on, and Labor would have to get quite unlucky for them to have to rely on someone other than the Greens to gain government. Labor can get majority government but the amount of seats they need to win is at least somewhat difficult.

In addition, I have the Coalition losing another seat to an Independent and Ward winning as an Indie. So...

Labor: 46 (+8)
Coalition: 36 (-10)
Greens: 3
Independent: 8 (+2)

[Хahar 🤔]

Penrith - along with East Hills, this is the Liberals most marginal seat. And unlike East Hills, Ayres doesn't have a sophmore surge to bail him out and has had a few corruption allegations (though he has since been cleared). Yet it sounds like this is basically a total tossup. Perhaps the strong Liberal results in Penrith federally help, perhaps it's a case of Ayres throwing the kitchen sink at the seat, perhaps Labor should've chosen a better candidate. What does worry me is that if Labor can't win the seat, it'll be hard for them to get to a position where they're likely to win barring some very weird swings....

There are some local issues here, right? Penrith has the best team in the world and the Coalition government has been very firm on dumping a whole bunch of money specifically in Penrith to get that team a new stadium. On current polling it shouldn't matter, but it would make sense to me if the swing to Labor here were much weaker than in similar areas.

Ehhh, I'm not sure what Penrith have done in the NRL has really influenced things. Part of the issue is that Emma Husar (the former Labor MP for Lindsay) self-imploded, but also I think it's a case of the more #populist image of Scott Morrison played well here compared to other parts of Sydney. I think demographic change and growth of new suburbia has helped the Liberals here too. It doesn't help Labor that the seat is very white, for example (whereas new suburbs with a lot of Asian migrants tend to be quite marginal).

I don't mean to suggest that Penrith winning in the NRL actually matters, but I'm thinking here of the state government's plan to commit a lot of money to constructing suburban stadiums, which as I understand it has morphed into a plan to commit $300 million to a stadium in Penrith and nowhere else. It's hard not to read this as a sign that the government really wants Stuart Ayres to keep his seat.

[morgieb]

Penrith - along with East Hills, this is the Liberals most marginal seat. And unlike East Hills, Ayres doesn't have a sophmore surge to bail him out and has had a few corruption allegations (though he has since been cleared). Yet it sounds like this is basically a total tossup. Perhaps the strong Liberal results in Penrith federally help, perhaps it's a case of Ayres throwing the kitchen sink at the seat, perhaps Labor should've chosen a better candidate. What does worry me is that if Labor can't win the seat, it'll be hard for them to get to a position where they're likely to win barring some very weird swings....

There are some local issues here, right? Penrith has the best team in the world and the Coalition government has been very firm on dumping a whole bunch of money specifically in Penrith to get that team a new stadium. On current polling it shouldn't matter, but it would make sense to me if the swing to Labor here were much weaker than in similar areas.

Ehhh, I'm not sure what Penrith have done in the NRL has really influenced things. Part of the issue is that Emma Husar (the former Labor MP for Lindsay) self-imploded, but also I think it's a case of the more #populist image of Scott Morrison played well here compared to other parts of Sydney. I think demographic change and growth of new suburbia has helped the Liberals here too. It doesn't help Labor that the seat is very white, for example (whereas new suburbs with a lot of Asian migrants tend to be quite marginal).

I don't mean to suggest that Penrith winning in the NRL actually matters, but I'm thinking here of the state government's plan to commit a lot of money to constructing suburban stadiums, which as I understand it has morphed into a plan to commit $300 million to a stadium in Penrith and nowhere else. It's hard not to read this as a sign that the government really wants Stuart Ayres to keep his seat.

Oh right. Yeah that's true, he's certainly a high-profile MP that might have leadership potential and it's also absolutely a must-win seat for the Coalition.

[Logical]

ABC live link
https://www.youtube.com/live/GfOz5MQPXPo

[Continential]

When do polls close?

[Logical]

When do polls close?

It has closed 20 minutes ago.

[JimJamUK]

Lismore called for Labor by the ABC. Massive swing to the Labor incumbent, in large part due to the floods last year.

[Logical]

6% swing to ALP. 99% sure the coalition have lost their majority.

[S019]

6% swing to ALP. 99% sure the coalition have lost their majority.

That is pretty obvious at this point, I think the only question is if Labor will form a minority or a majority.

[Logical]

Antony Green has called it for Labor at 7.52 pm. Just under 2 hours after the polls closed.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Labor ahead in the Liberal leaders seat of Epping by 2 points... 12.5 point swing so far.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2023/guide/eppi

EDIT; And just like that it's swung back. Still a big swing.

[JimJamUK]

There’s a couple of winnable regional seats where Labor aren’t getting much of a swing, but there’s others where they’ve gotten a massive one, and Sydney is across the board good for Labor (except some of Labour’s safe Western Sydney seats, where a big swing would have been wasted anyways).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"Labor is on the cusp of a majority government"
Antony Green

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Also the Greens are narrowly leading in Balmain /w Kobi Shetty who seems like a rising star in the Greens bench still extremely narrow race /w Labor though.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2023/guide/balm

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Antony calls a majority Labor government.

[GoTfan]

Credlin having another great night:

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Entertaining seeing Matt Kean and Tania Mihailuk talk with each other.

[Logical]

The year is 2023, the People’s Republic of Australia under the guidance of Chairman Albanese has chased the Liberal Party out of mainland Australia, fleeing to the national redoubt of Tasmania. This signalled the start of a decades long border dispute and skirmishes over the Bass Strait.

[adma]

I don't claim to know anything about state politics in NSW, but I just saw a clip of Dominic Perrotet speaking and my visceral reaction was "what creepy looking guy. Looks like he could be cast as the sadistic headmaster of private school for boys".

Is he seen as an asset or a liability for the Coalition?

Don’s somewhere in the middle imo. But NSW politics doesn’t exactly have high standards lmfao. And after dealing with Keneally’s horrendous Yankee accent for a few years literally anyone else is a PR improvement.

Middle class voters and Catholics like Dom because he reminds them of their private school values they defend to the death imo tbh jao

Think of him as Pierre Poilievre with an added layer of hardcore Catholicism.  So yeah, he's unlikeable.  (And he has a Thierry Baudet-type preoccupation w/bulldozing Brutalist buildings.)

That is an incredibly bad description lol. Rather than being some libertarian policy wonk ideological warrior, Don’s defining feature is the fact he has 11 siblings and 7 children. “Dull Suburban Catholic family man” writ large. Fairly pragmatic, big social conscience, knows when to keep his mouth shut etc.

And building old buildings is a 100% bipartisan position across all Australian state parties. Redevelopment brings profit for businesses and jobs for construction unions, a true win-win.

Re the former point: it's more that said "Dull Suburban Catholic family man" persona is the sort that'd make more "normalized" sense 40 years ago w/someone born in 1942, than presently with someone born in 1982.  So if you want to know where negative impressions come from, there you go--that is, if we're dealing w/Ottawa-area politicians for comparison points, a more pragmatic and soft-edged "Dull Suburban Catholic family man" comparison point would be Dalton McGuinty; but Perrottet has more of a borderline-Jesusland vibe about him than McGuinty ever had.

And re my latter point: well, if you think there's universal, bipartisan support for this kind of reactionary garbage...
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/ten-iconic-buildings-i-d-bulldoze-by-treasurer-dominic-perrottet-20201124-p56hc5.html