Is Dom, Is Good: NSW State Election (March 25)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

With only 2 and a bit months to go till voting here in my home state, it’s overdue to get the thread underway.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Iconic Ozzie cultural reference to explain the thread title. Longer posts outlining background, maybe some seat guides to come soonish.

[Epaminondas]

If NSW flips, would that mean Labour is statistically back to its 2007 grip over state legislatures?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If NSW flips, would that mean Labour is statistically back to its 2007 grip over state legislatures?

Nope! Tasmania holds strong. And you mean state *governments.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

As already discussed in the General Discussion thread, Premier Dominic Perrottet has publicly admitted out of the blue to dressing as a Nazi for a fancy dress party. He revealed this because retiring-against-his-will Transport Minister David “That Bald Idiot” Elliot has blackmailed him out of bitterness and fealty to Clubs NSW and the gambling industry. Oh yes, Labor is running to the right of the Coalition on Gambling addiction btw. Gotta love a small target/being bought off by the industry!

All in all? I did Nazi that coming.

[Cassius]

NSW politics is less realistic than the plot of Rake. Discuss.

[JimJamUK]

Premier Dominic Perrottet has publicly admitted out of the blue to dressing as a Nazi for a fancy dress party. He revealed this because retiring-against-his-will Transport Minister David “That Bald Idiot” Elliot has blackmailed him out of bitterness and fealty to Clubs NSW and the gambling industry. Oh yes, Labor is running to the right of the Coalition on Gambling addiction btw. Gotta love a small target/being bought off by the industry!

The Australian Labor Party strikes again. Never change.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

NSW politics is less realistic than the plot of Rake. Discuss.

Did that get aired in Britain? Wow. Great show. It's so gloriously, quintessentially, perfectly Sydney.

Though if you rather straight drama, Rats in the Ranks is a glorious insight into how our state political culture permeates our powerless local government. City of Leichhardt was such a mess for so many years lol.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Premier Dominic Perrottet has publicly admitted out of the blue to dressing as a Nazi for a fancy dress party. He revealed this because retiring-against-his-will Transport Minister David “That Bald Idiot” Elliot has blackmailed him out of bitterness and fealty to Clubs NSW and the gambling industry. Oh yes, Labor is running to the right of the Coalition on Gambling addiction btw. Gotta love a small target/being bought off by the industry!

The Australian Labor Party strikes again. Never change.
     ^NSW

Another major policy is abolishing stamp duty tax for new home buyers. Yes, solving housing unaffordability by cutting tax (and driving up prices in the process...)

[omar04]

As already discussed in the General Discussion thread, Premier Dominic Perrottet has publicly admitted out of the blue to dressing as a Nazi for a fancy dress party. He revealed this because retiring-against-his-will Transport Minister David “That Bald Idiot” Elliot has blackmailed him out of bitterness and fealty to Clubs NSW and the gambling industry. Oh yes, Labor is running to the right of the Coalition on Gambling addiction btw. Gotta love a small target/being bought off by the industry!

All in all? I did Nazi that coming.

I first read about the gambling industry in Australia in connection to the two gambling related propositions in California last November. It's incredibly bizarre how a veterans support organization's clubs have become poker machine casinos.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2023/01/13/gambling-industry-nsw-labor/


A fairly good New Daily article outlining NSW Labor's capture. The most spicy part is surely:

And in Labor’s case, heck, it’s mainlining from the mugs feeding their pokies habit – the Randwick Labor Club along with the ACT Labor Clubs have the better part of 600 machines donating to the party, as noted by Andrew Wilkie.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In hilarious news.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/former-labor-mp-switches-to-one-nation-weeks-before-nsw-election-20230117-p5cd8x.html

The disgruntled Bankstown MP screwed over by the redistribution has turned full heel and done a Latham. And she'll probably stay in parliament! She's been given the second spot on the PHON upper house ticket. Knowing NSW Labor we're gonna find out the corruption allegations she threw around were somehow still true.

She accused her former party of being captured by “left-wing extremists and property developer mafia”. “[Labor leader] Chris Minns as premier and a Labor government will see NSW go both woke and broke. I know the true agenda of the people currently sitting on Chris Minns’ frontbench – they are from the extreme left,” she said.

Mihailuk also said One Nation was the only party that would focus on the cost of living crisis and rising energy bills, and described her fierce opposition to “drug legalisation and gender fluidity teaching in schools”.

Mihailuk took aim at Latham in the chamber in 2017, condemning his comments about multiculturalism in Australia and lamenting her disappointment in someone the Labor Party had once held in “high regard”.

“I would describe this transformation of a former politician as a Shakespearean tragedy. Mark Latham claimed that 90 per cent of the people in Fairfield who he approached for comment on multiculturalism could not speak English,” she said. “But to me Mark Latham, a burly bloke with an ugly mug, accosted some poor people on the street and thrust a microphone into their faces … Mark Latham is just a buffoon.”

[JimJamUK]

In hilarious news.

The disgruntled Bankstown MP screwed over by the redistribution has turned full heel and done a Latham. And she'll probably stay in parliament! She's been given the second spot on the PHON upper house ticket.

Running as the Pauline Hanson’s One Nation candidate in Bankstown was presumably off the cards given its chock full of Vietnamese refugees, Chinese migrants and Muslims?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In hilarious news.

The disgruntled Bankstown MP screwed over by the redistribution has turned full heel and done a Latham. And she'll probably stay in parliament! She's been given the second spot on the PHON upper house ticket.

Running as the Pauline Hanson’s One Nation candidate in Bankstown was presumably off the cards given its chock full of Vietnamese refugees, Chinese migrants and Muslims?

(the Chinese population is very low in this area)
Honestly she'd probably pick up a decent share. 10-20% maybe? The immigrants get very conservative in this area. 70% no to gay marriage! But running for the Upper House is the safe bet. Thanks to Latham's shenanigans she's guaranteed a seat one way or another.

[JimJamUK]

Running as the Pauline Hanson’s One Nation candidate in Bankstown was presumably off the cards given its chock full of Vietnamese refugees, Chinese migrants and (Lebanese) Muslims?

(the Chinese population is very low in this area)
Honestly she'd probably pick up a decent share. 10-20% maybe? The immigrants get very conservative in this area. 70% no to gay marriage! But running for the Upper House is the safe bet. Thanks to Latham's shenanigans she's guaranteed a seat one way or another.

It’s about 10% in Bankstown itself so not nothing, but take your point. Agree she’d get a decent share (ON did relatively well in working class non-Western migrant areas last year), but One Nation seems the sort of party that would have a hard ceiling below the vote share needed to win in that part of the world.

[Хahar 🤔]

In hilarious news.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/former-labor-mp-switches-to-one-nation-weeks-before-nsw-election-20230117-p5cd8x.html

The disgruntled Bankstown MP screwed over by the redistribution has turned full heel and done a Latham. And she'll probably stay in parliament! She's been given the second spot on the PHON upper house ticket. Knowing NSW Labor we're gonna find out the corruption allegations she threw around were somehow still true.

She accused her former party of being captured by “left-wing extremists and property developer mafia”. “[Labor leader] Chris Minns as premier and a Labor government will see NSW go both woke and broke. I know the true agenda of the people currently sitting on Chris Minns’ frontbench – they are from the extreme left,” she said.

Mihailuk also said One Nation was the only party that would focus on the cost of living crisis and rising energy bills, and described her fierce opposition to “drug legalisation and gender fluidity teaching in schools”.

Mihailuk took aim at Latham in the chamber in 2017, condemning his comments about multiculturalism in Australia and lamenting her disappointment in someone the Labor Party had once held in “high regard”.

“I would describe this transformation of a former politician as a Shakespearean tragedy. Mark Latham claimed that 90 per cent of the people in Fairfield who he approached for comment on multiculturalism could not speak English,” she said. “But to me Mark Latham, a burly bloke with an ugly mug, accosted some poor people on the street and thrust a microphone into their faces … Mark Latham is just a buffoon.”

Now this is exciting! It's disappointing to see warmed-over American culture war vocabulary here, but I guess that's to be expected. I am very curious about the internal politics in Bankstown Labor that led to this point. I've commented before on how odd it is that minority areas tend to be represented by white MPs and I'm interested in the motivations of this particular white MP.

I am also curious about the allegation that Labor is in bed not only with the far left (this is to be expected) but also with developers. What are the politics in Australia of throwing around accusations about developers? I don't really know what the relationship is between developers and politics in a country where "mortgage belt" is a regularly-used term, but I'm sure it's interesting.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In hilarious news.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/former-labor-mp-switches-to-one-nation-weeks-before-nsw-election-20230117-p5cd8x.html

The disgruntled Bankstown MP screwed over by the redistribution has turned full heel and done a Latham. And she'll probably stay in parliament! She's been given the second spot on the PHON upper house ticket. Knowing NSW Labor we're gonna find out the corruption allegations she threw around were somehow still true.

She accused her former party of being captured by “left-wing extremists and property developer mafia”. “[Labor leader] Chris Minns as premier and a Labor government will see NSW go both woke and broke. I know the true agenda of the people currently sitting on Chris Minns’ frontbench – they are from the extreme left,” she said.

Mihailuk also said One Nation was the only party that would focus on the cost of living crisis and rising energy bills, and described her fierce opposition to “drug legalisation and gender fluidity teaching in schools”.

Mihailuk took aim at Latham in the chamber in 2017, condemning his comments about multiculturalism in Australia and lamenting her disappointment in someone the Labor Party had once held in “high regard”.

“I would describe this transformation of a former politician as a Shakespearean tragedy. Mark Latham claimed that 90 per cent of the people in Fairfield who he approached for comment on multiculturalism could not speak English,” she said. “But to me Mark Latham, a burly bloke with an ugly mug, accosted some poor people on the street and thrust a microphone into their faces … Mark Latham is just a buffoon.”

Now this is exciting! It's disappointing to see warmed-over American culture war vocabulary here, but I guess that's to be expected. I am very curious about the internal politics in Bankstown Labor that led to this point. I've commented before on how odd it is that minority areas tend to be represented by white MPs and I'm interested in the motivations of this particular white MP,

I am also curious about the allegation that Labor is in bed not only with the far left (this is to be expected) but also with developers. What are the politics in Australia of throwing around accusations about developers? I don't really know what the relationship is between developers and politics in a country where "mortgage belt" is a regularly-used term, but I'm sure it's interesting.

Perhaps I should’ve made it clearer in my post. She was a perfectly normal state Labor MP for a decade. She has suddenly gone insane because of the redistribution. Her seat of Bankstown has been abolished, with her branches split between Auburn and Fairfield (both represented by Shadow Ministers with no intention of retiring). The suburb of Bankstown was moved to Lakemba, and took over the name of the seat but it’s still Jihad Dib’s seat with all his local branches.

So like many promising MPs before her, Mihailuk’s career is fcked by an NSW redistribution. And transferring seats just isn’t an option in this state. So her only chance was begging to get a spot on the upper house ticket. But after months of factional negotiations they couldn’t find room for her in the wheeling and dealing.

But they did find a space for local mayor Khal Asfour. He’s a big factional rival of Mihailuk’s in the local branches. They actually served on Bankstown Council together for a decade before she left in 2011. She was furious at that. (Should note that Mihailuk, Asfour and Dib are all staunchly in the Right faction. And they’re all pretty social conservative. The left is nonexistent in local branches, so the rivalries are all egos and personalities rather than ideology)

So she kicked a stink publicly about him with allegations of corruption. That got her dumped from shadow cabinet, and then the party. After a few months as an independent she’s realised that her only option is chumming up with Mark Latham to get a pretty safe upper house spot. So she’s upped her social conservatism and loathing of Labor’s left faction.


Labor and the Liberals are both gleefully in bed with property developers. Moreso in local councils than state parliaments though (which is relevant given he’s an incumbent mayor.).

Re Mortgage Belt? Mortgage Belt is the booming outer suburbs with quarter acre blocks and councils gleefully reasoning. Property Developer politics is different, it’s in the inner suburbs. Knocking down old cottages to build a block of units. Redeveloping the shopping mall to put apartment towers on top. Local councils split between NIMBYs and corrupt developers.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

But they did find a space for local mayor Khal Asfour. He’s a big factional rival of Mihailuk’s in the local branches. They actually served on Bankstown Council together for a decade before she left in 2011. She was furious at that. (Should note that Mihailuk, Asfour and Dib are all staunchly in the Right faction. And they’re all pretty social conservative. The left is nonexistent in local branches, so the rivalries are all egos and personalities rather than ideology)

Aaand he's gone. LMFAO. Not because of his lingering corruption problems with real estate developers, something far stupider. Claiming bogus expenses (Spa massage, limo ride, beer, expensive briefcase) from the taxpayers during council funded work trips to Japan and New York. How can NSW politics be so hilariously predictable?

Edit:
Quotes from his master:
“he had been subjected to a vicious smear campaign”
"The Mayor realises the attacks will continue and it is in the Labor Party's best interests he is not a distraction”

[AustralianSwingVoter]

NSW politics is less realistic than the plot of Rake. Discuss.

NSW Labor party strategists be like:

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Property Developer politics is different, it’s in the inner suburbs. Knocking down old cottages to build a block of units. Redeveloping the shopping mall to put apartment towers on top. Local councils split between NIMBYs and corrupt developers.

Relevant:

[AustralianSwingVoter]

After some frantic wheeling and dealing in smoke filled rooms, NSW Labor General Secretary Bob Nanva (RTBU-Right) has been chosen by Minns to replace Khal Asfour on the upper house ticket.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The *vibes* are getting pretty nasty for Dom. 20/93 seats still lacking a Coalition candidate in a painful repeat of the federal election. It’s making it very hard to get the Liberal campaign underway with so many holes. Meanwhile Minns is terrified of saying or doing anything of substance lest the ALP strategists and focus groups get mad at him. Portends for a poor government.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

New Newspoll has the Labor lead wound back to 52/48, with primaries favouring Coalition 37/36. Roy Morgan also has 52/48, Freshwater Strategies has 53/47.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Sydney Trains network chose an opportune moment to totally and utterly collapse thanks to a digital communications problem. A fortnight before the state election, rail unions couldn't have it any better.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Nominations have closed and the electoral commission is undertaking the ballot draws today.