Is Dom, Is Good: NSW State Election (March 25)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I would vote for Perrotte in this election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

We're already starting on the tacky attack ads!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We're already starting on the tacky attack ads!

From 1 to 10, considering everything, how would you rate this ad?

[morgieb]

So....time for my much vaunted predictions:

Albury - safe Liberal. If a decent Independent ran it might've been interesting, but one didn't so....

Auburn - this was kind of close in 2015, which I think was down to having the genuinely marginal Newington/Wentworth Point area and a bit of controversy about Foley being parachuted in. But as things stand, this is safe Labor.

Badgerys Creek - not super marginal, but has been marginal in the past. Davies is a bit of an embarrassment as a local MP but her margin is quite large so I think she should be fine. But I can see the margin being close. The political history here long-term will be fascinating given that the new airport is being built here and it seems an ideal place for a lot of manufacturing/distribution places which in theory should skew heavily Labor.

Ballina - a Greens seat! This combines the hippie-turned-yuppie hotbed of Byron, a marginal town of Ballina and more standard rural areas. Hard to believe this was held by the Nationals in 2003 of all elections. Usually Greens MP's are tough to dislodge, so I don't think Smith has much to fear.

Balmain - safe Greens on paper, but the sitting MP is retiring which has never happened in Australia for a Greens held seat. So who knows whether the Parker vote was a personal vote or a party one. Will be one to watch, but I'll back a Greens hold without further information, especially as the Balmain Peninsula doesn't strike me as a natural Labor area anymore.

Bankstown - safe Labor. Of course this isn't really the Bankstown of 2019, but a renamed Lakemba. Doesn't change the political nature of the seat though.

Barwon - was won by the Shooters in 2019, but the MP is now an Independent. It will be interesting to see how this changes things, but Butler's case is helped by the Nats candidate being lower profile and Broken Hill being typically Labor-leaning (but obviously voting for an Indie over the Nationals). Would favor him to hold.

Bathurst - hard to believe this was safe Labor as recently as 2007. If Toole was to retire the seat would be one to watch, especially if the Coalition was in power, but as it is this is afe National.

Bega - hard to gague. Before the by-election this was usually a Liberal seat, but Constance had a good personal vote and the area was a swingy one federally. Ordinarily I'd assume that Holland would win now he's entrenched, but the Liberals picked a good candidate that has personal appeal in a large part of the seat and it's only been a year since the by-election. Might be one to watch, but I think I'd still back Labor here.

Blacktown - safe Labor

Blue Mountains - it's hard to believe that this was traditionally the bellweather seat in New South Wales looking at results this century. The Tories probably only won in 2011 because of vote-splitting and Labor won easily here in 2015 and 2019. Frankly, the bigger long-term threat is the Greens.

Cabramatta - had Carbone run this would've been very close, although I think OPV and Labor's candidate actually being from the area might've just about saved Labor. As it is, safe Labor (I don't think Hoang will do much of interest).

Camden - I would've thought the seat would've been secure enough for the Liberals unless the brand was in meltdown statewide, but Labor do sound kind of optimstic here. I guess the seat isn't that safe and the seat would be vulnerable to a backlash on infrastructure failures, but equally the suburbs here are quite developed compared to other bits of Camden Council so that might help the Liberals.

Campbelltown - it's interesting that the seat actually gave quite a solid margin for the Liberals on current boundaries back in 2011 yet is so safe for Labor now. I guess that shows how bad 2011 was for Labor, lol.

Canterbury - safe Labor

Castle Hill - safe Liberal. Maybe the margin might be interesting to watch as apparently there seems to be more of a Labor effort than usual?

Cessnock - on paper a safe Labor seat (in fact the safest in 2015 - how often would that have happened for a rural seat?) In practice, this is kind of Ground Zero for Labor's coal backlash. But given that the Nats candidate was disendorsed, I don't think that will matter.

Charlestown - safe Labor, unless their brand is in meltdown statewide. Which is what happened in 2011!

Clarence - safe National. Interestingly in federal elections Labor haven't done too badly in the area, despite the area looking not too different from typical National rural territory (unlike the other three North Coast seats), which might be down to some strong Labor campaigns federally. But that I don't think will make much of an impact here. The one wildcard is that the sitting MP is retiring, but I don't think there's a strong enough Independent to make it interesting.

Coffs Harbour - should be a Nationals hold. How well Townley does might be worth watching, but if she didn't come close to winning an open seat in 2019, I struggle to see her doing significantly better this time around.

Coogee - marginal seat and a Labor gain in 2019, which I think was largely down to the light rail controversies. However, this area clearly feels like the sort of area that is trending left under current coalitions and the sitting MP that lost was a strong one. I think this will give a big swing towards Labor to push it towards safety.

Cootamundra - safe National. I think this is the only seat in NSW that is completely rural (most other rural seats have at least one large town in them)

Cronulla - safe Liberal

Davidson - safe Liberal...in theory. But this was the kind of seat that the Teals performed very well in 2022 and the sitting MP retired. Will still expect a Liberal hold though as the area is more suburban and less Teal friendly as areas further south, and I think the current Government should be more favourable to the Teal defectors.

Drummoyne - on paper, a safe Liberal seat. But the seat was Labor held before the 2011 election, and the sitting MP was forced to retire due to a corruption scandal. The area also swung heavily Labor in the 2022 federal election. I think the Liberals hold but I think the swing will be pretty big.

Dubbo - was very close in 2019, and had CPV existed statewide the Nationals would've lost, I think. However the Independent that made it so close isn't running this time, so I expect the margin to return to safety for the Nationals.

East Hills - who knows? This was a pretty safe Labor seat before 2011, and even in 2011 Labor only just lost it. But despite this, the Liberals have hung on in the past two elections, and federal results suggest the area is trending Liberal. I think the new Labor candidate seems a stronger fit for a marginal seat than the previous one (who was unfairly smeared as a pedophile lover and didn't quite shake off the status of being an outsider), but the sitting MP can expect a sophmore surge and seems a decent fit for the seat as well. I think the general swing might just be enough to dislodge the seat, but I said that the last two times as well, so honestly I don't know. But if Labor don't win here, it might be tough to win overall.

Epping - Perrottet's seat. Interestingly the seat is now kind of marginal and in the federal election it would've been very close. I don't think he has that much to fear, but I'm surprised Labor aren't trying harder (if only because the idea of knocking off the Premier would have appeal). Margin might be fun to watch??

Fairfield - safe Labor on paper, but this was the other seat affected by the Le/Carbone factor and it would've been a tough seat to contest first up (although I was dubious about how someone who was merely affiliated to those two would do, especially under OPV). With them staying out of it this should be straightforward.

Gosford - Labor's most marginal seat after 2015, but boosted to safety in 2019. The margin is debatably inflated (but equally, an area like Gosford and Woy Woy has the feel of a Labor one), but I don't expect this one to be competitive in this election.

Goulburn - this seat being a genuine marginal seems crazy to me. Yes I guess Goulburn has a bit of a working-class feel, but it's not a industrial city that has a strong Labor anchor either. And the rest of the seat is very much standard rural territory or really rich agricultural towns like Bowral. Maybe Ursula Stephens's profile helped? She's not running for Labor this time which might not help Labor, but the lack of pure marginals should still ensure that Labor pay attention here, and their new candidate might be a better fit for rural areas than Stephens. Will still predict a Liberal hold though as I think Tuckerman should get a sophmore surge and the seat in general just doesn't feel like natural Labor territory.

Granville - it's hard to believe that Labor lost this in 2011. I know 2011 was 2011 but even in that election the area felt fundamentally working-class enough that it shouldn't have mattered. I think Issa had a strong local profile which helped (and has kept the margin down in recent elections). With him not running I think this seat will return to rock-solid safety. Indeed, I haven't seen any signs of a campaign here walking through the seat, which I think says alll you need to know about the Liberals hopes here.

Hawkesbury - safe Liberal, but Labor did perform well in some of the more established/urbanised bits of the seat in the federal election so the margin might be worth watching. Especially as the flooding saga isn't that far off the horizon.

Heathcote - the seat is now notionally Labor with the seat adding more Wollongong suburbs and being less oriented towards the Shire. It also hurts the Liberals that the parts of the Shire that are in the seat tend to be the least Liberal-friendly areas of the LGA (the areas around the train line). Unless the Liberals are doing better than everyone expects, I don't think they can win this back.

Heffron - safe Labor. Might the Greens finish second? They were certainly close last time and the area isn't getting more Liberal-friendly....

Holsworthy - what hurts the Liberals in Heathcote helps them here. The problem for Labor is other than Lurnea the rest of the seat is either Liberal heartland (Menai and surrounds) or swingish areas that are trending Liberal (Holsworthy/Moorebank). That said, the sitting MP was deselected and the new Liberal candidate doesn't seem as strong. I'll predict a Liberal hold but I think it will be close.

Hornsby - safe Liberal. No Teal is going to take on Matt Kean.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Davidson - safe Liberal...in theory. But this was the kind of seat that the Teals performed very well in 2022 and the sitting MP retired. Will still expect a Liberal hold though as the area is more suburban and less Teal friendly as areas further south, and I think the current Government should be more favourable to the Teal defectors.

My seat! So I can’t let it slide, this is very much not a teal seat. Just look at the Bradfield booth map. The redistribution almost renamed this seat St Ives, and it’s still very much the defining centre of the seat. Chock full of Afrikaaners, Jews and Afrikaaner Jews it saved Bradfield last election and it will sink any teal in Davidson. The Forest District is also fairly distinct from the rest of the beaches, just look at Mackellar where it stayed firmly Liberal.

Mackellar is much more teal friendly, and Michael Regan is in with a good chance. He’s been a very popular and high profile mayor.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Only real interesting thing to note with 6 days left. This campaign is astoundingly non-existant. Nobody cares and neither party wants anyone to care. Almost no advertising, shockingly few candidate posters, no big scandals, no tabloid fearmongering, no policies, no promises, no rallies.
It's not even a small target campaign, it's a (compulsory voting) apathy campaign. The Liberals have too much baggage to campaign on the good parts of their record, Labor is too sh**t scared of upsetting anyone thanks to lingering 2019 PTSD.

[JimJamUK]

Only real interesting thing to note with 6 days left. This campaign is astoundingly non-existant. Nobody cares and neither party wants anyone to care. Almost no advertising, shockingly few candidate posters, no big scandals, no tabloid fearmongering, no policies, no promises, no rallies.
It's not even a small target campaign, it's a (compulsory voting) apathy campaign. The Liberals have too much baggage to campaign on the good parts of their record, Labor is too sh**t scared of upsetting anyone thanks to lingering 2019 PTSD.

How do you think the bland/non-existent campaign from the major parties will affect the minor party/independent vote? Potentially too inoffensive to alienate people, or too low stakes to scare them into sticking with the major parties?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

My bet is Chris Minns lasts ten months as Premier before resigning for something idiotic.

[morgieb]

Davidson - safe Liberal...in theory. But this was the kind of seat that the Teals performed very well in 2022 and the sitting MP retired. Will still expect a Liberal hold though as the area is more suburban and less Teal friendly as areas further south, and I think the current Government should be more favourable to the Teal defectors.

My seat! So I can’t let it slide, this is very much not a teal seat. Just look at the Bradfield booth map. The redistribution almost renamed this seat St Ives, and it’s still very much the defining centre of the seat. Chock full of Afrikaaners, Jews and Afrikaaner Jews it saved Bradfield last election and it will sink any teal in Davidson. The Forest District is also fairly distinct from the rest of the beaches, just look at Mackellar where it stayed firmly Liberal.

Mackellar is much more teal friendly, and Michael Regan is in with a good chance. He’s been a very popular and high profile mayor.

Yeah tbf I haven't looked at the booth map for Bradfield so I'm not sure where the Teals did best. It does make sense that St Ives would be less Teal friendly than Chatswood though.

[morgieb]

Keira - safe Labor.

Kellyville - a new seat with the Hills being drawn west/east than north/south (and based a lot on development patterns - most of this seat has only really been developed over the last 20-30 years), but safe Liberal nevertheless.

Kiama - an interesting one! On paper the Liberal margin here is very solid, but most of that was down to Gareth Ward's personal vote. However, he has been accused of sexual assault and pedophilia and was expelled from the party. Despite these henious charges he depressingly still holds a lot of personal appeal which might help his chances of recontesting as an Independent, but is it enough to win? I think it comes down to how hard the Liberals try for their "official" candidate. Gibbons was actually the MP for Holsworthy which is about an hour and a half away from Kiama/Shoalhaven, so it does seem like they're playing dead with enough plausible deniability that they can avoid "pedophile defender" if Ward gets kicked out of Parliament. For what it's worth though the area federally is actually Labor-leaning territory....

Kogarah - it's a pretty wild journey here! Even in 2011 Labor held onto the seat, but in 2019 extreme local factors saw Minns nearly lose. I think a lot of that was down to sensitivity over remarks by Michael Daley that were perceived as being racist, and a strong Liberal candidate and campaign. Given that the Labor candidate here is also the Labor leader, I can't imagine anything like that happening again and the Liberals aren't running anywhere near as aggressive of a campaign as they did in 2019, so I think Minns should be fine.

Lake Macquarie - safe for Piper. Who he backs in the event of a hung parliament might be worth watching - while the seat without him would be Labor-held, he also has good relationships with the Liberals and his brand of moderate progressivism might be appealing to the current Liberal leadership?

Lane Cove - another seat to watch for a potential Teal campaign, in particular Lane Cove council is actually Labor-controlled. The problem for the Teals is that the seat is quite disparate in nature as there's some more out and out blue ribbon territory here that isn't all that Teal friendly to go with the Tealish areas, as well as some more standard suburban territory. Add that it's not an open seat and the sitting MP is sort of high profile and I don't think this will amount to much.

Leppington - new seat....also one that was drawn to be as marginal as possible. The Raby area being bigger and more urbanised (naturally) than the farmland is what probably pushes the seat towards a notional Labor majority. Both candidates seem a little weak for mine. All in all, I think the trends of the night probably pushes this to Labor territory, but will be a seat to watch especially if the Liberals overperform.

Lismore - one of two Labor gains in 2019, this one will be interesting to watch. It's worth noting that Labor and the Greens were very close to each other to finish 2nd, and had the Greens finished 2nd the Nationals would've held on. Still, this seat looms likely as a big swinger away from the Nationals this time around. The one wildcard here is the floods in Lismore. On paper, natural disasters that have a major long-term impact on a community tends to favour incumbents (so that helps Saffin), but it's also possible that the floods might see voters tend towards parties that take a more aggressive line on climate change? I'll guess a Labor hold though.

Liverpool - safe Labor. Even with a new candidate.

Londonderry - interestingly on federal boundaries this was actually won by the Liberals....also the redistribution has made this seat quite a bit more marginal. So in theory this could be one to watch and the margin might be intriguing. But it doesn't sound like the Liberals are trying too hard to pinch this one, so expect it to stay Labor.

Macquarie Fields - safe Labor

Maitland - safe Labor....though like most of the Hunter recent federal results haven't been as kind towards Labor as usual so the margin might be worth watching. It's interesting that this seat was marginal for so long given it feels like old school Labor territory that's shifted right. I guess that shows just how big Maitland's got in recent years.

Manly - on paper, this is as close to Teal heartland as you can get. Even before the Teal phenomena, the area elected quite a few local Independents. So this should be quite competitive. The good news for the Liberals is that the MP is viewed as fairly progressive, and the Teals have had a few scandals that has hurt their "above the ruckus" kind of image. I'll guess the Liberals hold.

Maroubra - not super safe, but any seat held by Labor in 2011 should not be competitive. Especially when the Liberal candidate has had a heap of anti-vaxxer/COVID-related controveries...

Miranda - this seat was actually held by Labor throughout the 2000's, which says a lot about Barry Collier's personal vote. Without it this is very much a safe Liberal seat.

Monaro - an interesting one. On paper the margin is big, but Barliaro is no longer the MP. Even in the by-election the Nationals won this relatively comfortably, which shows how tough of a nut it is to crack. However the area federally is marginal, the seat was marginal before 2019 and it does seem like Labor are trying. First they nominated a famous local footy player, but his hopes crashed and burned following a few scandals leaking out. Then as his replacement they found the former MP who really only lost because 2011 was such a disaster year (and even then it was very close). I do think Whan might've left it too late to form a great campaign and the record for retreads isn't all that great, but it might be close.

Mount Druitt - safe Labor

Murray - an interesting one. Was won by Helen Dalton running as a SFF candidate in 2019, before like the rest of her cohort she went Independent last year. Her problem is that the seat is still pretty marginal, and while she has the advantage of a new personal vote it's worth noting that the Nationals have done quite well against Independent challenges in recent years (see the 2022 Victorian election). One advantage that Dalton has is that the Nats are in government in NSW whereas they weren't in Victoria, so I think that might help. But if any of the rural Indies lose, she is by far the most likely to do so.

Myall Lakes - an interesting one. On paper, this feels a natural Nationals seat. And it not being so would probably cause my mum extreme shock (she grew up in this area). But the margin isn't huge by any means and the incumbent MP retired. It also is facing a strong Independent challenge, who seems to be running the seat well. Does he win? I think if CPV existed he'd have a really good chance, but I think the core National vote might just about be high enough for them to hang on. Certainly will be a bit of a gamechanger if that's not the case....

Newcastle - safe Labor. This is the most yuppieish bit of Newcastle (Islington/Hamilton is kind of a less worldly Newtown whereas the Mereweather area is rich as hell) which probably enabled a shock Liberal win in 2011, but again, that was 2011. Could the Greens finish 2nd here?

Newtown - my seat! Compared to 2019 I actually notice more of a Labor campaign now than back then which is interesting, perhaps they think that they can get a bit of a boost from Albanese being PM, or maybe it's a form of trolling. Even so, I don't see Leong losing.

North Shore - yet another seat that's vulnerable to a Teal given what happened in 2022. Like Manly, it's also been a seat that's prone to various kinds of strong Independents doing well even before 2022. The Teals did not help themselves though by having two strong Independents run, which will only ensure the vote splits to re-elect Wilson.

Northern Tablelands - it feels a bit weird just how safe this seat is. It's obviously Nationals heartland but held by over 80%? Even despite Armidale in theory being at least somewhat helpful for the left? Crazy result.

Oatley - my old seat....and where a lot of my family still live. Interestingly this was very close in 2011 yet the margin has increased 7% since then, which I guess shows just how strong of a personal vote Kevin Greene had. I think Coure has a decent personal vote too. It doesn't really feel like the sort of place that Labor would flip in a close election and I expect the Liberals to hang on, but it's certainly worth watching if Labor win big and it's also a probable win if they're on the path to winning with a majority.

Orange - the third of the ex-SFF Independents, and the one that held the seat before 2019. Given Donato won with nearly a majority of the primary vote in 2019, I don't think he has much to fear even without party affiliation.

Oxley - on paper an open seat in the country should lead to attention from an Independent, but a good one didn't run so this is safe Nationals. The long-term affiliation of the seat might be kind of worth paying attention to as I think Bellingen might be the new Byron for sea/tree-changers.

[JimJamUK]

Lismore - one of two Labor gains in 2019, this one will be interesting to watch. It's worth noting that Labor and the Greens were very close to each other to finish 2nd, and had the Greens finished 2nd the Nationals would've held on. Still, this seat looms likely as a big swinger away from the Nationals this time around. The one wildcard here is the floods in Lismore. On paper, natural disasters that have a major long-term impact on a community tends to favour incumbents (so that helps Saffin), but it's also possible that the floods might see voters tend towards parties that take a more aggressive line on climate change? I'll guess a Labor hold though.

It’s worth noting that Lismore is technically now notionally National. The small redistribution made it slightly safer for Labor in 2PP and they remain in 2nd on first preferences, but the area added was strong enough for the Greens that in the 3CP they actually leapfrog Labor into 2nd place on minor party preferences, and then go on to lose 48-52 to the Nationals. Whether it’s close enough that this change will make the difference in reality, who knows.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Davidson - safe Liberal...in theory. But this was the kind of seat that the Teals performed very well in 2022 and the sitting MP retired. Will still expect a Liberal hold though as the area is more suburban and less Teal friendly as areas further south, and I think the current Government should be more favourable to the Teal defectors.

My seat! So I can’t let it slide, this is very much not a teal seat. Just look at the Bradfield booth map. The redistribution almost renamed this seat St Ives, and it’s still very much the defining centre of the seat. Chock full of Afrikaaners, Jews and Afrikaaner Jews it saved Bradfield last election and it will sink any teal in Davidson. The Forest District is also fairly distinct from the rest of the beaches, just look at Mackellar where it stayed firmly Liberal.

Mackellar is much more teal friendly, and Michael Regan is in with a good chance. He’s been a very popular and high profile mayor.

Yeah tbf I haven't looked at the booth map for Bradfield so I'm not sure where the Teals did best. It does make sense that St Ives would be less Teal friendly than Chatswood though.

[DL]

I don't claim to know anything about state politics in NSW, but I just saw a clip of Dominic Perrotet speaking and my visceral reaction was "what creepy looking guy. Looks like he could be cast as the sadistic headmaster of private school for boys".

Is he seen as an asset or a liability for the Coalition?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I don't claim to know anything about state politics in NSW, but I just saw a clip of Dominic Perrotet speaking and my visceral reaction was "what creepy looking guy. Looks like he could be cast as the sadistic headmaster of private school for boys".

Is he seen as an asset or a liability for the Coalition?

Don’s somewhere in the middle imo. But NSW politics doesn’t exactly have high standards lmfao. And after dealing with Keneally’s horrendous Yankee accent for a few years literally anyone else is a PR improvement.

Middle class voters and Catholics like Dom because he reminds them of their private school values they defend to the death imo tbh jao

[DL]

I don't claim to know anything about state politics in NSW, but I just saw a clip of Dominic Perrotet speaking and my visceral reaction was "what creepy looking guy. Looks like he could be cast as the sadistic headmaster of private school for boys".

Is he seen as an asset or a liability for the Coalition?

Don’s somewhere in the middle imo. But NSW politics doesn’t exactly have high standards lmfao. And after dealing with Keneally’s horrendous Yankee accent for a few years literally anyone else is a PR improvement.

Middle class voters and Catholics like Dom because he reminds them of their private school values they defend to the death imo tbh jao

What proportion of voters in NSW are Catholics who attended private schools? That must be a rapidly shrinking demographic. This is the state that contains Sydney, right? Who are state politics in NSW so seemingly low quality and full of retrograde rightwing Catholics, compared to other states like Victoria?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I don't claim to know anything about state politics in NSW, but I just saw a clip of Dominic Perrotet speaking and my visceral reaction was "what creepy looking guy. Looks like he could be cast as the sadistic headmaster of private school for boys".

Is he seen as an asset or a liability for the Coalition?

Don’s somewhere in the middle imo. But NSW politics doesn’t exactly have high standards lmfao. And after dealing with Keneally’s horrendous Yankee accent for a few years literally anyone else is a PR improvement.

Middle class voters and Catholics like Dom because he reminds them of their private school values they defend to the death imo tbh jao

What proportion of voters in NSW are Catholics who attended private schools? That must be a rapidly shrinking demographic. This is the state that contains Sydney, right? Who are state politics in NSW so seemingly low quality and full of retrograde rightwing Catholics, compared to other states like Victoria?

Current schools split is roughly 60% government, 20% Catholic, 20% other private. And nom-government  school enrolments are still rapidly growing as parents who can afford to leave the Govt system choose to. Also to be clear the vast majority of Catholic school students don’t give a hoot about religion, they’re there for better marks.

This is not a uniquely NSW issue! Private school parents are a major demographic in every state and continually torpedo education funding reforms.

[DL]

Current schools split is roughly 60% government, 20% Catholic, 20% other private. And nom-government  school enrolments are still rapidly growing as parents who can afford to leave the Govt system choose to. Also to be clear the vast majority of Catholic school students don’t give a hoot about religion, they’re there for better marks.

This is not a uniquely NSW issue! Private school parents are a major demographic in every state and continually torpedo education funding reforms.

Are Catholic schools in Australia actually private or are they publicly funded? In Canada it varies by province. In Ontario, Catholics (aka "separate") schools are fully publicly funded and are essentially part of the public education system but with few crucifixes on the walls here and there (and some seem to think they are stricter and have higher standards but that may just be a myth/stereotype).

Only about 5% of kids in Ontario go to actual private schools where any tuition is paid (a mix of alternative schools for kids with special needs, vestigial stuffy single sex private schools for the children of self-styled upper class types and some non-Catholic religious schools for Muslims, Jews and fundamentalist Protestants).  

[morgieb]

Current schools split is roughly 60% government, 20% Catholic, 20% other private. And nom-government  school enrolments are still rapidly growing as parents who can afford to leave the Govt system choose to. Also to be clear the vast majority of Catholic school students don’t give a hoot about religion, they’re there for better marks.

This is not a uniquely NSW issue! Private school parents are a major demographic in every state and continually torpedo education funding reforms.

Are Catholic schools in Australia actually private or are they publicly funded? In Canada it varies by province. In Ontario, Catholics (aka "separate") schools are fully publicly funded and are essentially part of the public education system but with few crucifixes on the walls here and there (and some seem to think they are stricter and have higher standards but that may just be a myth/stereotype).

Only about 5% of kids in Ontario go to actual private schools where any tuition is paid (a mix of alternative schools for kids with special needs, vestigial stuffy single sex private schools for the children of self-styled upper class types and some non-Catholic religious schools for Muslims, Jews and fundamentalist Protestants).  

They are private, but the fees generally tend to be lower than other Indepedent high schools (so they tend to pay around $5-6k rather than $30-40k). It's generally viewed as a good option for a lot of families who live in lower middle-class catchment areas who aren't super-smart and are "culturally Catholic" even if they aren't really religious themselves.

[DL]

They are private, but the fees generally tend to be lower than other Indepedent high schools (so they tend to pay around $5-6k rather than $30-40k). It's generally viewed as a good option for a lot of families who live in lower middle-class catchment areas who aren't super-smart and are "culturally Catholic" even if they aren't really religious themselves.

Hmmm...I wonder if they are 100% private with fees that low or if they get some sort of partial government funding/subsidy. Do you even have to be Catholic to go to Catholic schools?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Are Catholic schools in Australia actually private or are they publicly funded?

Both! Non-government schools are completely privately owned and operated but they are roughly half funded by the (commonwealth) government while government schools are fully funded by the (state) government. In exchange for funding private schools follow standardised curriculums and educational standards.

Additionally the state governments are now directly funding the construction of private schools in growth suburbs to give school choice or some bs.

The complex funding balance has its origins in the Labor split of the 50s and was implemented by Whitlam to bring Catholic voters back into the fold. Since then the independent “third sector” has grown from almost nothing to fill the void for more culturally protestant families.

Hmmm...I wonder if they are 100% private with fees that low or if they get some sort of partial government funding/subsidy. Do you even have to be Catholic to go to Catholic schools?

Of course not! About ~40% of Catholic school students don’t identify as Catholic, and most of those who do are your usual cultural Catholic non-churchgoers.

[morgieb]

And the last part of the predictions:

Parramatta - after 2019 this looked a rather safe seat. But the redistribution swapped the solidly Liberal territory north of the Parramatta River with some more traditionally marginal territory around Homebush. It still has a solidly Liberal margin....but the popular sitting MP is retiring, his replacement doesn't seem all that strong, Labor picked a strong candidate and the area federally was strongly Labor. I think this is Labor's most straightforward pickup....which given the swing required to win it shows that Labor's path isn't easy.

Penrith - along with East Hills, this is the Liberals most marginal seat. And unlike East Hills, Ayres doesn't have a sophmore surge to bail him out and has had a few corruption allegations (though he has since been cleared). Yet it sounds like this is basically a total tossup. Perhaps the strong Liberal results in Penrith federally help, perhaps it's a case of Ayres throwing the kitchen sink at the seat, perhaps Labor should've chosen a better candidate. What does worry me is that if Labor can't win the seat, it'll be hard for them to get to a position where they're likely to win barring some very weird swings....

Pittwater - a safe seat on paper, but this is one of the best Teal areas in the country and a high-profile MP in Rob Stokes retired. I think the Liberals might just about hang on given that the Teal/Climate 200 wave seems to be receding, but this is a bad time for a seat like this to be open, even with a fairly moderate Liberal leadership team.

Port Macquarie - in theory this is a safe Coalition seat, and this will remain the case. Which Coalition candidate wins is another question. The sitting MP was elected as a National, but she defected to the Liberals following Barilaro threatening to rip up the Coalition agreement due to a koala empass. The area is quite good for the Nats federally which should give them a core vote, but I think the Liberals win because they have the advantage of a sitting MP. Traditionally three-cornered-contests have been bad for the Coalition under OPV as votes that would otherwise flow to the other Coalition party can exhaust, but I don't think that will hurt them here as Labor just aren't strong enough in the area. Oh, and I'm Facebook friends with the LDP candidate here.

Port Stephens - in theory, this could be somewhat competitive - I think the margin is probably somewhat inflated for Labor and the more regional/small town bits of the Hunter are trending right hard. However, they bungled pre-selection hard and are basically running a paper candidate. Should be a Labor hold, then.

Prospect - should be a straightforward Labor hold. I've heard that the Liberal candidate is quite strong so maybe the swing might be muted though? The boundaries do strike me as somewhat Coalition-friendly by Western Sydney standards though so maybe it'll be a seat to watch down the track?

Riverstone - marginal seat where there's no sitting MP, though like most Sydney-based marginals the margin isn't that small. This area won't approve of the infrastructure failures that the Liberals have entailed either. Having said that, I think the Liberals chose the stronger candidate. I think this seat probably decides who wins the election.

Rockdale - not super safe, but will remain a Labor hold nonetheless.

Ryde - another safe-ish Liberal seat that used to be Labor held and where a popular sitting MP is retiring. What might help the Liberals is that their candidate of choice seems to be running a great campaign and is tying himself to Dominello well. I think a narrow Liberal hold is likely.

Shellharbour - on paper a safe Labor seat, but here they actually do have a strong Independent challenge. I don't think this goes anywhere, I've seen more enticing Independent challenges in the Illawarra fall short and he doesn't seem to be running the most exciting campaign. Best case scenario is him finishing 2nd I think.

South Coast - this is an interesting one! On paper it's a safe-ish Liberal seat, but like a lot of them the sitting MP is vacating. Federally the area is quite marginal. The one interesting thing is that the Greens candidate is a directly elected mayor for the area, and she seems to be running a great campaign. I don't think she'll actually win, but the primary vote will be interesting. I guess the Liberals hang on but perhaps not by much.

Strathfield - this was sort of close in the by-election, but I think Farrelly playing spoiler and a strong Liberal candidate helped there. And even then Labor won it comfortably enough. I don't think this will be too close this time around even as parts of the seat still remain Liberal heartland (the actual suburb of Strathfield, for example).

Summer Hill - safe Labor. In theory the Greens should be competitive, but the area is a fair bit more working-class and suburban than what you might think - it's certainly a different demographic to Balmain and Newtown. I do think they finish 2nd and they'll be competitive going forward, but for now this is still a Labor seat.

Swansea - Labor hold. The margin might be interesting given trends in the area though.

Sydney - safe for Greenwich. Like Piper, I'll be fascinated to see who he backs. In theory he's a better fit for a Liberal government than Piper is, but he also seems a bit more ideological so maybe he'll be too liberal on social issues to back the Coalition, even a relatively moderate one.

Tamworth - safe Nationals. Mark Rodda did solidly as an Independent the last time and the seat is historically very Independent friendly, so maybe he does well? Don't think it'll enough to endanger the seat though.

Terrigal - I've heard some optimism from Labor about the seat's potential. For me, I don't really see it as the seat feels very much solidly Liberal territory, but maybe it might be close? The Labor candidate seems quite strong....

The Entrance - should be a Labor hold....I guess? Don't really know the area well, so not sure how real the margin is, but the area is generally a very light shade of red and the margin is relatively robust. What impact Bracken has might be interesting, but he didn't do all that well as an Independent federally back in 2013, and he was much more recently retired back then so the name would've meant quite a bit more (and he's not even Lee level of famous, let alone McGrath so.....)

Tweed - hard to say. It's quite marginal yet there doesn't seem to be much interest here? I guess Provest is quite a good MP that has made his profile quite well known during the floods, and while the Labor candidate is the husband of the federal MP he's probably not the best fit for the seat. I guess a Nationals hold then.

Upper Hunter - on paper, this is easily the Nationals most marginal seat. So in theory this should be an easy pickup for Labor. However, the Nationals won this area easily in the federal election, and it feels like Labor are overperforming in much of the seat. There was also a large SFF vote which I think split the right-wing vote, which will probably recede in 2023. What happened in the by-election in 2021 is probably a truer reflection of the seat. So despite the very small margin, I actually think the Nationals hold on here.

Vaucluse - on paper any open blue-ribbon seat should cause Liberals concern in the current climate, but it's worth remembering the better Teal areas in Wentworth are generally in other seats (and also aren't really blue-ribbon areas). On federal boundaries Sharma would've won this seat, which I think says all you need to know. As long as the Coalition government isn’t weapons-grade toxic amongst doctor's wives (and this government clearly isn’t), this should be a hold for them.

Wagga Wagga - should be safe for McGirr. If it was a bit more in doubt I don't think both the Liberals and the Nationals would've run here....

Wahroonga - if Morrison was contesting this election I think this seat might've been worth watching, although it does avoid the best Teal parts in Northern Sydney. But he's not, so the Liberals should have little to fear especially as the Teal nominated was nominated quite late. The Teals don't even have the advantage of this being an open seat unlike much of the Liberal's blue-ribbon heartland.

Wakehurst - Brad Hazzard's old seat. Although it would've been Teal held on federal boundaries this is probably the least Teal friendly bit of the Northern Beaches. Hazzard's retirement doesn't help but the Liberals did pick a good candidate. However, the incumbent mayor is running as an Indepedent which is a big gamechanger and has turned this seat into a dogfight. Ultimately, I think the Liberals just about hang on as it feels like the Teal tide is receding (technically Regan isn't a Teal but is at least Teal-adjacent) due to a dodgy campaign and some scandals. But it will be close.

Wallsend - Labor's safest seat in the entire state, so yeah.

Willoughby - this is Gladys's old seat. Was very close in the by-election and the new Liberal MP feels a bit too conservative for the seat. Interestingly the Independent running isn't really a Teal as she's a bit more socially conservative than them and basically running as the NIMBY candidate of choice. Without Climate 200 backing I'm not sure she'll do much better than she did in the by-election. Still, James being a poor fit for the seat might help her margin.

Winston Hills - another marginal seat. Not an area I'm super knowledgeable about, but it does seem like a classic marginal. Taylor seems a good local MP, but unlike Benjamin Pandey doesn't have the same tinge of scandal around him. Like Riverstone, I think this one probably goes to whoever wins the election, though I have a little bit more faith in the Liberals here than I do there.

Wollondilly - funnily despite not being a Teal area, the Independent (who is running as a Teal/under Climate 200 backing) running here might actually have a better chance than all of them. She has strong links to the area and the sitting Liberal MP seems a dud with him making a lot of gaffes. I think this will be very close. Forced to call, I think OPV might just about be enough for Smith to win as I'm not sure how much appeal Hannan has outside of the Wollondilly LGA, but he's made this far closer than he needs to.

Wollongong - safe Labor, especially without an Independent running. Like Newcastle the Greens might be able to finish 2nd here?

Wyong - not super safe, but will be easily held by Labor.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Based off Morgieb's predictions above:
LIB IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIII (29)
NAT IIIII IIIII II (12)
LAB IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIII (39)
GRN III (3)
IND IIIII I (6)
Don't know East Hills, Kiama, Penrith, Riverstone (4)

Hmm. Doesn't look too good if this is how narrow the path looks.

[morgieb]

Well, it looks like my predictions were too conservative. Even if 54.5-45.5 isn't that accurate, that's probably Labor majority territory.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Election after election the media breathlessly reports about an impending hung parliament yet the Australian voters have a knack for picking a winner. I think if Labor’s over 51% 2pp they’ll get a majority regardless of what uniform swing says.

[DL]

Election after election the media breathlessly reports about an impending hung parliament yet the Australian voters have a knack for picking a winner. I think if Labor’s over 51% 2pp they’ll get a majority regardless of what uniform swing says.

Looks like someone better stick a fork in "Dom" 'cause I think he is cooked!

The Australian reports the election eve Newspoll finds Labor on track for a comfortable win in tomorrow’s New South Wales state election with a two-party lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 52-48 in its poll at the start of the campaign. The primary votes are Labor 38% (up two), Coalition 35% (down one) and Greens 11% (down one), beyond which there is only a combined result of 16% for independents and other parties. The poll also finds Chris Minns leading Dominic Perrottet 41-39 as preferred premier, which reverses Perrottet’s solid 43-33 last time and looks to be the first time a Labor leader has led on this measure in Newspoll since the Coalition came to power in 2011. Exact numbers on approval and disapproval are not yet provided, but we are told Perrottet’s net rating has dived from plus 9% to minus 3%, while Minns is up from plus 8% to plus 14%. The poll was conducted Saturday to Thursday from a sample of 1205.