Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Del Tachi]

Welp, Democrats just sacrificed their last competent state official.  I like Presley, but he will not do as well as Hood in the general election.

[Del Tachi]

Welp, Democrats just sacrificed their last competent state official.  I like Presley, but he will not do as well as Hood in the general election.

I get what you mean, but if you’re Presley, this is probably your best chance to run statewide (even if it’s an uphill climb). If not now, when would he run statewide? Ticket splitting is becoming much less common, and he probably has a better chance against a relatively unpopular incumbent than he would in an open seat race.

I'd rather just keep Presley on the PSC in perpetuity.  The central district of the PSC/TC is very competitive (both decided by ~1% in 2019) so having Presley keep running in/winning the northern district is the only realistic way to gaurantee Democrats will hold even an ounce of power in state politics for the foreseeable future.

Presley's problems vis-a-vis Jim Hood are that he isn't as known statewide, and he has almost zero name recognition in the Jackson suburbs or Gulf Coast.  Prelsey is also even more socially conservative than Jim Hood, meaning that the liberal activist set is really going to needle him about his abortion stance in the state's first post-Dobbs election.  He either gives up his Blue Dog base, or completely decimates turnout among liberals.

[Del Tachi]

As for Reeve's primary troubles - Bill Waller, Jr., the former chief justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court who forced Reeves into a runoff in 2019, is said to be seriously considering launching a rematch campaign. 

[Del Tachi]

As for Reeve's primary troubles - Bill Waller, Jr., the former chief justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court who forced Reeves into a runoff in 2019, is said to be seriously considering launching a rematch campaign. 

Who would you support in that scenario?

I voted for Waller in 2019 and would vote for him again.  I’d vote for Presley over either of them, however.

[Del Tachi]

Y'all are reading George Flaggs the wrong way, btw.  He's a Republican-aligned mayor these days.

[Del Tachi]

Chris McDaniel is back! He’s running for Lt Gov.

Will he defeat Hoseman in the primary?

No.  Hosemann is probably the most popular statewide Republican. 

[Del Tachi]

In non-gubernatorial news, the Mississippi Supreme Court has disqualified former Trump staffer Mandy Gunasekara from appearing on the ballot for the northern Public Service Commission district (i.e., Presley's current seat), saying she doesn't meet state residency requirements.  She apparently voted in a DC municipal election as recently as 2018, and state law requires candidates for PSC to have lived in MS continuously for at least the most recent 5 years.

[Del Tachi]

Fundamentally, what distinguishes Presley from Hood?  As a longtime incumbent, did Hood come off as "too establishment"?  I also see some comments upthread that Hood's sincerity as a social conservative was in doubt? 

Hood was a trial lawyer.  Although he had a reputation as a consumer advocate, he was also always perceived as a bit too litigious.  Pressley is much more friendly with business interests, especially the utilities. 

[Del Tachi]

Could Trump visit here last minute? He probably won’t help Cameron because Cameron will probably lose, but holding a rally with Reeves will give him a sure win under his belt.

Trump is too tied-up in legal battles to spend time in Mississippi.  And even if he did, Trump is less popular and less relevant here than he was in 2019 (when he did actually rally with Reeves.) 

[Del Tachi]

Anyway, we're one-and-a-half weeks out from election day and I get the sense that the wind is blowing at Presley's back.  I suspect Reeves will finish under the 51.9% he got in 2019, still unclear whether that's enough to force a runoff or actually get Presley elected, though. 

Ugggggh, I really want Presley to win.  It's about time we had a Tupelo/Mississippi State governor!

[Del Tachi]

Anyway, we're one-and-a-half weeks out from election day and I get the sense that the wind is blowing at Presley's back.  I suspect Reeves will finish under the 51.9% he got in 2019, still unclear whether that's enough to force a runoff or actually get Presley elected, though. 

Ugggggh, I really want Presley to win.  It's about time we had a Tupelo/Mississippi State governor!

Color me surprised that you support Presley.

Y’all act like y’all know me; y’all don’t!

[Del Tachi]

Anyway, we're one-and-a-half weeks out from election day and I get the sense that the wind is blowing at Presley's back.  I suspect Reeves will finish under the 51.9% he got in 2019, still unclear whether that's enough to force a runoff or actually get Presley elected, though. 

Why do you feel that way? I'm not seeing or hearing any evidence of that.

I'm sticking with my prediction of Reeves winning by 8 or so (maybe 7 thanks to anti-vax deaths), which is still a good performance from a Mississippi Democrat, but I feel like there would be some kind of a buzz out there if Pressley were going to win. Nobody I interact with in real life seems to be even aware that a governor election is happening, at least no one is talking about it.

Reeves +8 would be a shocking overperformance in that it would mean practically doubling his 2019 margin vs Hood.  I just don't see that, given that Reeves is less popular now than he was four years ago and Republican enthusiam seems pretty low.

However...such an overperformance certainly feels like a distinct possibility given that we must live in the worst possible timeline.  It would mean Presley completely missing his benchmarks with Black voters, which would be an echo of the LA-GOV results.  Presley has always been somewhat more vulnerable than Hood on this front, if only because he doesn't have the same name recognition as being elected statewide four times.

But Presley is also seems to be running a more serious campaign.  Hood's heart was never in the race the same way Presley's has been. 

[Del Tachi]

Who would a runoff favor?

It's hard to say.  Mississippi runoffs are very short (3 weeks) so there's not a lot of time to really change the character of the race.  The GE setup probably benefits Reeves marginally from having more popular Republicans downballot, but a runoff would capture a lot of out-of-state attention and have the effect of nationalizing the race (which hurts Presley.)  It's probably a wash.   

[Del Tachi]

Democrat consultants speak candidly about Presley's chances, strategy one week out from election day
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/31/brandon-presley-momentum-democrats-caution/

[Del Tachi]

Democrat consultants speak candidly about Presley's chances, strategy one week out from election day
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/31/brandon-presley-momentum-democrats-caution/

I didn't realize there hadn't been a debate yet. That should be interesting

Yes, debate is 7 p.m. tomorrow and will air on WAPT-TV (Jackson's ABC affiliate) as well as MPB.  Hoping Presley will make a splash!

[Del Tachi]

Final campaign finance reports submitted, Presley has outraised Reeves by >$5M this cycle
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/31/brandon-presley-outraised-tate-reeves-election/

Donald Trump makes video endorsement of Reeves, no rally scheduled 
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/31/donald-trump-endorses-tate-reeves-governor/

Absentee balloting 70% of 2019 total, portending possible low turnout
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/11/01/absentee-balloting-low-mississippi-general-election/

[Del Tachi]

It's happening?!  Beshear and Reeves both lose?

Remember, MS has practically no early voting at all, so whatever did go down in that debate, the news still has time to reach 95% of voters. 

From what I’m seeing MS mail-in turnout is 70% of 2019, similar to Louisiana. It is still unclear who the low turnout benefits.

The bulk of the non-ED vote in Mississippi is in-person absentee, not VBM.  The last day for in-person absentee voting will be this Saturday, November 5th (this last Saturday is traditionally the biggest day for absentee voting, too.)

As of November 1st, Hinds County (Jackson) was at 80% of its 2019 numbers.  Rankin 59%, Madison 97%, DeSoto 138%, Hancock 53%, Sunflower 223%, etc.  It's very much a mixed bag.

[Del Tachi]

Maybe too early for this, but these are some county-by-county benchmarks I'd like to see to feel that Presley is on-track for a majority win.

Hinds 81/18
Harrison 57/40
Madison 52/46
Rankin 60/39
DeSoto 54/45
Lee 54/44
Oktibbeha 59/37
Lowndes 52/47
Lafayette 55/44
Forrest 50/49
Washington 73/25

[Del Tachi]

Another important region to watch is the Gulf Coast counties. If Presley is looking to win, he should target to improve upon Hood's performance there. It's a strongly Republican region with a relatively large military presence and relatively dense.

Indeed.  The ten southernmost MS counties (i.e., the Gulf Coast + Hattiesburg) gave Reeves his entire winning margin in 2019.  Hood actually won the rest of the state by ~1,000 votes.   

Both Reeves and Presley were campaigning on the Gulf Coast this past weekend.  Reeves has long courted local business and political interests on the coast, so Presley is trying to blunt his margins.  Reeves' schedule had him at Ingalls Shipbuilding in Pascagoula; while Presley campaigned with representatives of the casino workers union.  Shipbuilding and gaming are the two biggest industries on the MS coast, no surprise!

[Del Tachi]

I think he needs to win Lee. I'm not going to feel great about it if he doesn't. There's a combination of college-educated professionals, non-neglible BVAP, Presley friends-and-neighbors, and ancestral rural Dems there. Certainly you would know that area better than me, but I'm having a hard time seeing Presley win if he doesn't carry Lee.

Reeves got 58% of the vote in Lee County in 2019.  Presley outright flipping it would be something to see, and if he did I'd say he's already well on his way to a dramatic statewide win.  Granted, Presley is from Lee County and he won 62% of the vote there the most recent time he was challenged on the PSC (in 2015) but Tupelo is traditionally the most Republican-friendly place in northeast MS.  It's one the few big cities in the state that reliably elects Republican mayors, for instance.   

Hood's 2019 performance in Northeast MS dramatically fell off from his wins as AG, which should be expected given the more partisan profile of gubernatorial races.  Presley will suffer the same fate (i.e., he will not win his old base) but the margin is what matters.  Cutting Reeves' numbers in Lee County from +4000 to +2500 is potentially a big difference.   

[Del Tachi]

Three things to watch for as tomorrow's results come in:

• Black turnout, in particular Hinds County - Presley needs this to come through massively, say with Hinds at 87-90% of the combined Rankin and Madison turnout, not like 80% or less, and also good numbers in the Delta
• Turnout of the "flag people" - A lot of them feel like Reeves betrayed them by allowing the flag to change in the George Floyd aftermath. This will be harder to recognize, but if turnout looks low in George and Greene Counties (those are very small counties, but they're the only two that voted against the new flag), it might be a sign that the flag hopium may be real.
• Margin in suburban Madison, Rankin, and DeSoto Counties - Hood did well in all 3 of these, even winning Madison, but Presley is going to have to do even better to have a real shot.

I think Presley needs to hit on all 3 of these to win, or maybe do really well on 2 of them and have the third be a wash.

I think Black turnout is the biggest question.  Presley should improve vs Hood in the suburban + college counties, if only because of #trends and those are the folks Reeves has lost over the previous four years.  Hood really missed his marks in Jackson and the Delta in 2019, so there should be plenty of room to improve, but Presley didn't start with the name recognition to match Hood in those places.  We'll see if the massive amounts of campaign cash spent to change that made a difference tonight. 

Republican turnout may simply be down due to less enthusiasm for Reeves and a dearth of competitive downballot races but understanding that as a single-issue "flag" protest vote is too myopic, I think.

[Del Tachi]

FYSA, this past Saturday the number of requested absentee ballots surpassed 62,000.  That's ~30% more than the 48,000 from 2019.  56k have already been returned; mailed absentee ballots will be counted as long as they are postmarked by today and returned by November 15th.  6,000 potentially outstanding ballots after tonight could matter given Mississippi's new runoff rules for this year.     

[Del Tachi]

FYSA, this past Saturday the number of requested absentee ballots surpassed 62,000.  That's ~30% more than the 48,000 from 2019.  56k have already been returned; mailed absentee ballots will be counted as long as they are postmarked by today and returned by November 15th.  6,000 potentially outstanding ballots after tonight could matter given Mississippi's new runoff rules for this year.     

What are the new runoff rules?

If neither Reeves nor Presley win a majority (which is a possibility given the presence of an independent candidate on the ballot) then there will be a runoff on Nov. 28th

The new runoff rules are from a constitutional amendment passed by the Legislature and approved by voters in 2020.  Prior to the rule change, candidates had to win a majority of the vote and a majority of state house districts to be elected.  If no candidate won both, members of the state house would elect the governor in a contingent election.  This only happened once in state history, in 1999, when Democrat Ronnie Musgrove was elected governor in a party-line vote of the Legislature after winning 49.6% of the vote to Republican Mike Parker's 48.5%.  Both candidates had won 61 of Mississippi's 122 state house districts.

[Del Tachi]

With 94% of the vote reporting, De'Keither Stamps (D) leads incumbent Brent Bailey (R) for the central PSC district by ~1,300 votes.  Most of the remaining vote should be in Hinds.

Incumbent central district Transportation Commissioner Willie Simmons (D) has been re-elected.

[Del Tachi]

The election gods have a cruel way of validating Atlas memes that I dismiss. 

First Laxalt loses by a Titanium Tilt D margin.

Now Reeves wins by the exact same margin as four years ago — it doesn’t get more inelastic than that!

Congrats, ShadowoftheWave. 

Every other Republican running for statewide office won ~60% of the vote.  Ticket-splitting is still very alive in Mississippi!