Mississippi Megathread 2023

[philly09]

Reeves now down to 52.5% with a 46,000 vote lead over Presley who has climbed to 46.1%

This is a result of Hinds reporting 58.9% of their votes.

[philly09]

169,000 votes remaining.

[philly09]

LeFlore County is the sole county remains that has yet to report.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

51 Reeves
47 Presley
  2 Gwendolyn

Will be the final result.

Not bad for Presley, but I expected more ... even a win.

[philly09]

Presley had conceded.  Still 143,000 votes left.

[Frodo]

Presley had conceded.  Still 143,000 votes left.

There go my hopes of Brandon Pressley becoming the John Bel Edwards of Mississippi.  

https://mississippitoday.org/2023/11/07/mississippi-election-results-governor/

Still, he ran a good, competitive race for such a deeply conservative, Republican state.
 
Results should closely match the 2019 gubernatorial race.

[7,052,770]

I think once Hinds and any stragglers come in, it basically ends up being the same margin (% and raw votes) as 2019. Another good Democratic performance, just not good enough.

Ultimately, Mississippi is just too Republican of a state for a Democrat to win unless the Republican candidate is unusually awful, and Reeves is not that. I think that will probably change some over the next 10-20 years, though, and I hope the national party sees it as a medium-term goal for a future flip.

2008 - Virginia and Colorado
2020 - Arizona and Georgia
2032? - Mississippi? Kansas?

[philly09]

I think once Hinds and any stragglers come in, it basically ends up being the same margin (% and raw votes) as 2019. Another good Democratic performance, just not good enough.

Ultimately, Mississippi is just too Republican of a state for a Democrat to win unless the Republican candidate is unusually awful, and Reeves is not that. I think that will probably change some over the next 10-20 years, though, and I hope the national party sees it as a medium-term goal for a future flip.

2008 - Virginia and Colorado
2020 - Arizona and Georgia
2032? - Mississippi? Kansas?

Just think what would've happened if they spent more here for this race. Turnout was weak.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think once Hinds and any stragglers come in, it basically ends up being the same margin (% and raw votes) as 2019. Another good Democratic performance, just not good enough.

Ultimately, Mississippi is just too Republican of a state for a Democrat to win unless the Republican candidate is unusually awful, and Reeves is not that. I think that will probably change some over the next 10-20 years, though, and I hope the national party sees it as a medium-term goal for a future flip.

2008 - Virginia and Colorado
2020 - Arizona and Georgia
2032? - Mississippi? Kansas?

The problem for Democrats in Mississippi is that the state is considered a sh****** state outside of people born there, or bible thumpers. As a result, no one wants to move there and thus it prevents any oppurtunity of the Jackson area seeing major growth and becoming a significant metro area. Even compared to Alabama and possibly Louisiana the state is considered backwards to the lack of a safe metro for minorities. The truth is neither national party wants to campaign over a state that's uneducated, quite illiterate, poor, and unemployed. That's why there is somewhat of informal agreement to just let polarization do its job.

[Epaminondas]

If the Governor's race has been decided, the only competitive race left is the Central Public Service Commissioner, where GOP Brent Bailey is in a rematch with Dem DeKeither Stamps.

In 2019 Bailey won with 50.3% of the voter, though right now Stamps is leading by the same score.

A) Is this likely to hold?
B) Does it make any difference to policy that Presley's resignation in the seat next door ensured the GOP has a majority on the PSC?

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/JustR_02/status/1722139711488065968

[Pres Mike]

I really think a Beto or Warnock like figure could win MS if it was an open year. 47% in an off year election is impressive, considering the incumbent president is a Democrat. When Hood got the same result 4 years ago, it was seen as Trump backlash.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls had this wrong Reeves was never endangered, MS just like WV is gone for Goid for Ds

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Nailed on Reeves +5-8.

Lower end, but as predicted.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I had Reeves+5 as well, and called that Presley would only do marginally better than Hood.

This cycle has been my nost accurate ever when it comes to predictions, I think! I was furthest off in my own state, actually.

[Alben Barkley]

I really think a Beto or Warnock like figure could win MS if it was an open year. 47% in an off year election is impressive, considering the incumbent president is a Democrat. When Hood got the same result 4 years ago, it was seen as Trump backlash.

Presley was probably the best candidate possible for MS, I don’t think a “Beto or Warnock” would win if he couldn’t. Especially a “Beto,” who never won a statewide election…

[Pres Mike]

I really think a Beto or Warnock like figure could win MS if it was an open year. 47% in an off year election is impressive, considering the incumbent president is a Democrat. When Hood got the same result 4 years ago, it was seen as Trump backlash.

Presley was probably the best candidate possible for MS, I don’t think a “Beto or Warnock” would win if he couldn’t. Especially a “Beto,” who never won a statewide election…

Your probably right

[Progressive Pessimist]

I really think a Beto or Warnock like figure could win MS if it was an open year. 47% in an off year election is impressive, considering the incumbent president is a Democrat. When Hood got the same result 4 years ago, it was seen as Trump backlash.

Presley was probably the best candidate possible for MS, I don’t think a “Beto or Warnock” would win if he couldn’t. Especially a “Beto,” who never won a statewide election…

Do you think Presley would have been better running four years ago instead of Hood against a non-incumbent Reeves?

[Del Tachi]

With 94% of the vote reporting, De'Keither Stamps (D) leads incumbent Brent Bailey (R) for the central PSC district by ~1,300 votes.  Most of the remaining vote should be in Hinds.

Incumbent central district Transportation Commissioner Willie Simmons (D) has been re-elected.

[MT Treasurer]

The election gods have a cruel way of validating Atlas memes that I dismiss. 

First Laxalt loses by a Titanium Tilt D margin.

Now Reeves wins by the exact same margin as four years ago — it doesn’t get more inelastic than that!

Congrats, ShadowoftheWave.  

[Del Tachi]

The election gods have a cruel way of validating Atlas memes that I dismiss. 

First Laxalt loses by a Titanium Tilt D margin.

Now Reeves wins by the exact same margin as four years ago — it doesn’t get more inelastic than that!

Congrats, ShadowoftheWave. 

Every other Republican running for statewide office won ~60% of the vote.  Ticket-splitting is still very alive in Mississippi!

[mtvoter]

The margin has narrowed to Reeves +4.4

[Frodo]

With Jim Hood and now Brandon Pressley now out of the running, is there anyone the Mississippi Democratic Party has left in the pipeline who can make the next gubernatorial election in 2027 as competitive as they did?  Or is this the end of the road for Blue Dogs in the state?  If so, we might as well start getting used to Republicans winning the governor's mansion by the same 60-40 margin they won the lower row offices this year.  

[smoltchanov]

With Jim Hood and now Brandon Pressley now out of the running, is there anyone the Mississippi Democratic Party has left in the pipeline who can make the next gubernatorial election in 2027 as competitive as they did?  Or is this the end of the road for Blue Dogs in the state?  If so, we might as well start getting used to Republicans winning the governor's mansion by the same 60-40 margin they won the lower row offices this year.  

I don't see any. Such candidate must be populist on economy, moderate on social issues, pro-life on abortion and preferrably - white. Hood and Pressley fit that description, but there is no one else. In fact - Democratic caucus in state legislature has (now) only 2 white state Senators (with one being Hob Brown, first elected in 1991 and 71 years old) and exactly 1 white state representative. And even moderate Black like Espy will NOT get better percentage then Hood and Pressley.....

P. S. It's a sort of axiom in Mississipi (and to great extent - in Louisiana and South Carolina, may be even more - in Alabama): almost any Democratic candidate can get 38-40% of vote (if campaigning, unlike Wilson recently), good - 43-44%, exceptional - about 47% (Hood, Pressley). But, in absence of big (Vitter-type) scandal - no more. Reeves was very weak (Hosemann would win with at least 55% even against Pressley), but more or less "clean" - and that was enough to win simply because of "R" letter after name... White voters in these states became too accustomed to vote for straight Republican ticket.. Georgia, with it's giant Atlanta metropolis, is a lone exception in Deep South...

[Del Tachi]

With Jim Hood and now Brandon Pressley now out of the running, is there anyone the Mississippi Democratic Party has left in the pipeline who can make the next gubernatorial election in 2027 as competitive as they did?  Or is this the end of the road for Blue Dogs in the state?  If so, we might as well start getting used to Republicans winning the governor's mansion by the same 60-40 margin they won the lower row offices this year. 

Presley is only 46 years old and he's proven to be a more than capable fundraiser.  No reason he couldn't run again in four years. 

Interesting will be who the GOP nominates after Reeves.  Hosemann as Lieutenant Governor is next-in-line but I doubt he wants it (would be 81 at the start of his first term.)  Michael Watson, Lynn Fitch, and Shad White seem like the most ambitious and currently best positioned statewide pols.  If I had to guess, Fitch and Watson run for governor and White gets the LG spot.  A pretty terrible crop all around, haha