Mississippi Megathread 2023

[wbrocks67]

Looking at that write-up.... it feels extremely lazy just on the basis of facts.

Despite this shortcoming, Tate Reeves benefits from both incumbency and what appears to be an unmotivated Black electorate, as seen in 2022 midterm results and in neighboring Louisiana, where Black turnout was a shockingly-low 28.8%, while white turnout was a meager, but still significantly higher, 41.6%.

Not sure how LA is any way applicable here other than it is simply another southern state that just had an election. Other than that, there is no comparison in the two situations, and not even sure how 2022 is an apt comparison when Presley has made it a core mission to gin up black turnout here, which is outside of even what most competitive races did last year. Remains to be seen whether it's enough, but this is a very lazy comparison to make.

but Reeves continues to lead in public polling. This is the core of the argument that Reeves continues to be favored to retain his position: Presley has failed to close the gap in independent public polling.

Presley has failed to close the gap? There's barely been any public polling! The last public poll was literally a month ago!

I should've known this article was not written by Laksyha or the usual writers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Best deepfake of the 2023 cycle, I think. It's funny now; it might not be in 2024.

https://twitter.com/nassaucentrist/status/1721183184014958857

[7,052,770]

Three things to watch for as tomorrow's results come in:

• Black turnout, in particular Hinds County - Presley needs this to come through massively, say with Hinds at 87-90% of the combined Rankin and Madison turnout, not like 80% or less, and also good numbers in the Delta
• Turnout of the "flag people" - A lot of them feel like Reeves betrayed them by allowing the flag to change in the George Floyd aftermath. This will be harder to recognize, but if turnout looks low in George and Greene Counties (those are very small counties, but they're the only two that voted against the new flag), it might be a sign that the flag hopium may be real.
• Margin in suburban Madison, Rankin, and DeSoto Counties - Hood did well in all 3 of these, even winning Madison, but Presley is going to have to do even better to have a real shot.

I think Presley needs to hit on all 3 of these to win, or maybe do really well on 2 of them and have the third be a wash.

[walleye26]

My final guess is Reeves +6. At the end of the day, partisanship wins over. Maybe if it’s closer Presley could get to a runoff, but it’s been decades since MS has elected a democratic governor.

[OneJ]

Another important region to watch is the Gulf Coast counties. If Presley is looking to win, he should target to improve upon Hood's performance there. It's a strongly Republican region with a relatively large military presence and relatively dense.

[gespb19]

Maybe too early for this, but these are some county-by-county benchmarks I'd like to see to feel that Presley is on-track for a majority win.

Hinds 81/18
Harrison 57/40
Madison 52/46
Rankin 60/39
DeSoto 54/45
Lee 54/44
Oktibbeha 59/37
Lowndes 52/47
Lafayette 55/44
Forrest 50/49
Washington 73/25

I think he needs to win Lee. I'm not going to feel great about it if he doesn't. There's a combination of college-educated professionals, non-neglible BVAP, Presley friends-and-neighbors, and ancestral rural Dems there. Certainly you would know that area better than me, but I'm having a hard time seeing Presley win if he doesn't carry Lee.

[Del Tachi]

Another important region to watch is the Gulf Coast counties. If Presley is looking to win, he should target to improve upon Hood's performance there. It's a strongly Republican region with a relatively large military presence and relatively dense.

Indeed.  The ten southernmost MS counties (i.e., the Gulf Coast + Hattiesburg) gave Reeves his entire winning margin in 2019.  Hood actually won the rest of the state by ~1,000 votes.   

Both Reeves and Presley were campaigning on the Gulf Coast this past weekend.  Reeves has long courted local business and political interests on the coast, so Presley is trying to blunt his margins.  Reeves' schedule had him at Ingalls Shipbuilding in Pascagoula; while Presley campaigned with representatives of the casino workers union.  Shipbuilding and gaming are the two biggest industries on the MS coast, no surprise!

[Del Tachi]

I think he needs to win Lee. I'm not going to feel great about it if he doesn't. There's a combination of college-educated professionals, non-neglible BVAP, Presley friends-and-neighbors, and ancestral rural Dems there. Certainly you would know that area better than me, but I'm having a hard time seeing Presley win if he doesn't carry Lee.

Reeves got 58% of the vote in Lee County in 2019.  Presley outright flipping it would be something to see, and if he did I'd say he's already well on his way to a dramatic statewide win.  Granted, Presley is from Lee County and he won 62% of the vote there the most recent time he was challenged on the PSC (in 2015) but Tupelo is traditionally the most Republican-friendly place in northeast MS.  It's one the few big cities in the state that reliably elects Republican mayors, for instance.   

Hood's 2019 performance in Northeast MS dramatically fell off from his wins as AG, which should be expected given the more partisan profile of gubernatorial races.  Presley will suffer the same fate (i.e., he will not win his old base) but the margin is what matters.  Cutting Reeves' numbers in Lee County from +4000 to +2500 is potentially a big difference.   

[Del Tachi]

Three things to watch for as tomorrow's results come in:

• Black turnout, in particular Hinds County - Presley needs this to come through massively, say with Hinds at 87-90% of the combined Rankin and Madison turnout, not like 80% or less, and also good numbers in the Delta
• Turnout of the "flag people" - A lot of them feel like Reeves betrayed them by allowing the flag to change in the George Floyd aftermath. This will be harder to recognize, but if turnout looks low in George and Greene Counties (those are very small counties, but they're the only two that voted against the new flag), it might be a sign that the flag hopium may be real.
• Margin in suburban Madison, Rankin, and DeSoto Counties - Hood did well in all 3 of these, even winning Madison, but Presley is going to have to do even better to have a real shot.

I think Presley needs to hit on all 3 of these to win, or maybe do really well on 2 of them and have the third be a wash.

I think Black turnout is the biggest question.  Presley should improve vs Hood in the suburban + college counties, if only because of #trends and those are the folks Reeves has lost over the previous four years.  Hood really missed his marks in Jackson and the Delta in 2019, so there should be plenty of room to improve, but Presley didn't start with the name recognition to match Hood in those places.  We'll see if the massive amounts of campaign cash spent to change that made a difference tonight. 

Republican turnout may simply be down due to less enthusiasm for Reeves and a dearth of competitive downballot races but understanding that as a single-issue "flag" protest vote is too myopic, I think.

[Del Tachi]

FYSA, this past Saturday the number of requested absentee ballots surpassed 62,000.  That's ~30% more than the 48,000 from 2019.  56k have already been returned; mailed absentee ballots will be counted as long as they are postmarked by today and returned by November 15th.  6,000 potentially outstanding ballots after tonight could matter given Mississippi's new runoff rules for this year.     

[GeorgiaModerate]

FYSA, this past Saturday the number of requested absentee ballots surpassed 62,000.  That's ~30% more than the 48,000 from 2019.  56k have already been returned; mailed absentee ballots will be counted as long as they are postmarked by today and returned by November 15th.  6,000 potentially outstanding ballots after tonight could matter given Mississippi's new runoff rules for this year.     

What are the new runoff rules?

[wbrocks67]

FYSA, this past Saturday the number of requested absentee ballots surpassed 62,000.  That's ~30% more than the 48,000 from 2019.  56k have already been returned; mailed absentee ballots will be counted as long as they are postmarked by today and returned by November 15th.  6,000 potentially outstanding ballots after tonight could matter given Mississippi's new runoff rules for this year.     

What are the new runoff rules?

Just the typical 50+1

[Del Tachi]

FYSA, this past Saturday the number of requested absentee ballots surpassed 62,000.  That's ~30% more than the 48,000 from 2019.  56k have already been returned; mailed absentee ballots will be counted as long as they are postmarked by today and returned by November 15th.  6,000 potentially outstanding ballots after tonight could matter given Mississippi's new runoff rules for this year.     

What are the new runoff rules?

If neither Reeves nor Presley win a majority (which is a possibility given the presence of an independent candidate on the ballot) then there will be a runoff on Nov. 28th

The new runoff rules are from a constitutional amendment passed by the Legislature and approved by voters in 2020.  Prior to the rule change, candidates had to win a majority of the vote and a majority of state house districts to be elected.  If no candidate won both, members of the state house would elect the governor in a contingent election.  This only happened once in state history, in 1999, when Democrat Ronnie Musgrove was elected governor in a party-line vote of the Legislature after winning 49.6% of the vote to Republican Mike Parker's 48.5%.  Both candidates had won 61 of Mississippi's 122 state house districts.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

FYSA, this past Saturday the number of requested absentee ballots surpassed 62,000.  That's ~30% more than the 48,000 from 2019.  56k have already been returned; mailed absentee ballots will be counted as long as they are postmarked by today and returned by November 15th.  6,000 potentially outstanding ballots after tonight could matter given Mississippi's new runoff rules for this year.     

What are the new runoff rules?

If neither Reeves nor Presley win a majority (which is a possibility given the presence of an independent candidate on the ballot) then there will be a runoff on Nov. 28th

The new runoff rules are from a constitutional amendment passed by the Legislature and approved by voters in 2020.  Prior to the rule change, candidates had to win a majority of the vote and a majority of state house districts to be elected.  If no candidate won both, members of the state house would elect the governor in a contingent election.  This only happened once in state history, in 1999, when Democrat Ronnie Musgrove was elected governor in a party-line vote of the Legislature after winning 49.6% of the vote to Republican Mike Parker's 48.5%.  Both candidates had won 61 of Mississippi's 122 state house districts.

She has withdrawn and endorsed Presley, but her name is still on the ballot.

I doubt she gets more than 0.3% of the vote.

It's not much, but if it's extremely close, it could go to a runoff:

49.9% Presley
49.7% Reeves
  0.3% Independent
  0.1% write-ins

[Pres Mike]

What time polls close?

[GeorgiaModerate]

What time polls close?

8 Eastern, except in Hinds County where they've been extended an hour by a judge due to ballot shortages.

[Pres Mike]

What time polls close?

8 Eastern, except in Hinds County where they've been extended an hour by a judge due to ballot shortages.

Thank you!

[Pres Mike]

I've seen enough. Presley wins. Despite only 0.1% of the vote in.

Why? Cuz I am an Elvis fan duh

[Pres Mike]

Three things to watch for as tomorrow's results come in:

• Black turnout, in particular Hinds County - Presley needs this to come through massively, say with Hinds at 87-90% of the combined Rankin and Madison turnout, not like 80% or less, and also good numbers in the Delta
• Turnout of the "flag people" - A lot of them feel like Reeves betrayed them by allowing the flag to change in the George Floyd aftermath. This will be harder to recognize, but if turnout looks low in George and Greene Counties (those are very small counties, but they're the only two that voted against the new flag), it might be a sign that the flag hopium may be real.
• Margin in suburban Madison, Rankin, and DeSoto Counties - Hood did well in all 3 of these, even winning Madison, but Presley is going to have to do even better to have a real shot.

I think Presley needs to hit on all 3 of these to win, or maybe do really well on 2 of them and have the third be a wash.

With 76% in, Presley has 40% of the vote in Desoto. Hood got 37%. Good or bad sign?

[walleye26]

Three things to watch for as tomorrow's results come in:

• Black turnout, in particular Hinds County - Presley needs this to come through massively, say with Hinds at 87-90% of the combined Rankin and Madison turnout, not like 80% or less, and also good numbers in the Delta
• Turnout of the "flag people" - A lot of them feel like Reeves betrayed them by allowing the flag to change in the George Floyd aftermath. This will be harder to recognize, but if turnout looks low in George and Greene Counties (those are very small counties, but they're the only two that voted against the new flag), it might be a sign that the flag hopium may be real.
• Margin in suburban Madison, Rankin, and DeSoto Counties - Hood did well in all 3 of these, even winning Madison, but Presley is going to have to do even better to have a real shot.

I think Presley needs to hit on all 3 of these to win, or maybe do really well on 2 of them and have the third be a wash.

With 76% in, Presley has 40% of the vote in Desoto. Hood got 37%. Good or bad sign?

Presley is running ahead of Hood, but I don’t think that’s enough. However, there are a few black majority precincts in DeSoto too, so I don’t know where the votes are coming from. If he narrows this, that would be good for Presley.

[GALeftist]

This is closer than I thought it would be. Would still be pretty surprised at an outright Presley win but a runoff wouldn't surprise me. Hope I'm wrong!

[walleye26]

Benton county on the TN border is 99% in-a 4% shift left from 2019, and about a 7-8% increase in turnout.

[DrScholl]

Some of these margins by county are very interesting so far.

[One Term Floridian]

I could see Presley having a fighting chance atm - I think it all depends on black turnout in the Delta now...

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722083834399719544