2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1754905688113836418?s=46

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

538 GCB: R+1.2
R 44.4%
D 43.2%

Recent polls:
McLaughlin: R+4 (46-42)
NBC News: R+4 (49-45)
Emerson: R+1 (43-42)
YouGov/Yahoo: tie (42-42)
YouGov/Economist: D+1 (43-42)
Clarity: D+1 (45-44)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

Hot take- I don't even know if R's can afford to lose the generic ballot at this point. I think the days of R's having the house advantage(being able to win without the house PV) are gone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/robertanglen/status/1757068463498305581

I sure never got that much allowance when I was a kid.

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/robertanglen/status/1757068463498305581

I sure never got that much allowance when I was a kid.

Can’t candidates contribute as much money to their campaigns as they want? Why would he need to launder it through his children lol

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

https://twitter.com/robertanglen/status/1757068463498305581

I sure never got that much allowance when I was a kid.

Can’t candidates contribute as much money to their campaigns as they want? Why would he need to launder it through his children lol

Makes you think maybe it wasn’t a self-contribution.

[Pollster]

I don't know if there's a better thread to post this in (mods please move if so) but the latest rumblings are that Dems think an all-Democrat general election between Salas and Hurtado is possible in CA-22 based on polling showing Valadao extremely vulnerable to his Trum-aligned Republican challenger.

Since I posted this, this has transformed into panic about getting locked out as Mathys has proven resilient and Valadao is not hitting him (he doesn't need to, Valadao has enough name ID as the incumbent and appeal to independents/non-ideologues to take one of the top two spots, so this dynamic benefits him).

There is intense desire within the party to not have Hurtado as the nominee - I don't know why - but there is going to be a big push to get Salas through (if there isn't one already, I've been offline for some time dealing with stuff and am just getting reoriented now).

[Roll Roons]

I don't know if there's a better thread to post this in (mods please move if so) but the latest rumblings are that Dems think an all-Democrat general election between Salas and Hurtado is possible in CA-22 based on polling showing Valadao extremely vulnerable to his Trum-aligned Republican challenger.

Since I posted this, this has transformed into panic about getting locked out as Mathys has proven resilient and Valadao is not hitting him (he doesn't need to, Valadao has enough name ID as the incumbent and appeal to independents/non-ideologues to take one of the top two spots, so this dynamic benefits him).

There is intense desire within the party to not have Hurtado as the nominee - I don't know why - but there is going to be a big push to get Salas through (if there isn't one already, I've been offline for some time dealing with stuff and am just getting reoriented now).

From the looks of it, Hurtado can’t fundraise to save her life.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't know if there's a better thread to post this in (mods please move if so) but the latest rumblings are that Dems think an all-Democrat general election between Salas and Hurtado is possible in CA-22 based on polling showing Valadao extremely vulnerable to his Trum-aligned Republican challenger.

Since I posted this, this has transformed into panic about getting locked out as Mathys has proven resilient and Valadao is not hitting him (he doesn't need to, Valadao has enough name ID as the incumbent and appeal to independents/non-ideologues to take one of the top two spots, so this dynamic benefits him).

There is intense desire within the party to not have Hurtado as the nominee - I don't know why - but there is going to be a big push to get Salas through (if there isn't one already, I've been offline for some time dealing with stuff and am just getting reoriented now).

From the looks of it, Hurtado can’t fundraise to save her life.

I wonder if she has some skeletons in her closet tbh

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don't know if there's a better thread to post this in (mods please move if so) but the latest rumblings are that Dems think an all-Democrat general election between Salas and Hurtado is possible in CA-22 based on polling showing Valadao extremely vulnerable to his Trum-aligned Republican challenger.

Since I posted this, this has transformed into panic about getting locked out as Mathys has proven resilient and Valadao is not hitting him (he doesn't need to, Valadao has enough name ID as the incumbent and appeal to independents/non-ideologues to take one of the top two spots, so this dynamic benefits him).

There is intense desire within the party to not have Hurtado as the nominee - I don't know why - but there is going to be a big push to get Salas through (if there isn't one already, I've been offline for some time dealing with stuff and am just getting reoriented now).

From the looks of it, Hurtado can’t fundraise to save her life.

Salas isn't doing great either for that matter but Hurtado is like James Craig levels of poor fundraising

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just a note that we now have an individual thread for CA-22 and the possibility of an R-vs-R general election there.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=574031.0

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1758927878492721429
FWIW, the primary between Min and Weiss has become extremely nasty.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1758927878492721429
FWIW, the primary between Min and Weiss has become extremely nasty.

Press X to doubt re: Min advancing

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1758927878492721429
FWIW, the primary between Min and Weiss has become extremely nasty.

Press X to doubt re: Min advancing

That would be great if he lost to Weiss. The DUI would make this more competitive than it should be

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1760043653760774557

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1760043653760774557

Rich dudes might not be that bad in a cycle where the GOP might be more limited in money since they can self-fund. Is the electoral penalty for being a rich dude greater than the alternative penalty of having a less resourced campaign - hard to say.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1760829711213883543?t=NPU2GfVcx9okptbFPWW...

Obvious disclaimer that Whitesides is a self-funder.  However,  the takeaway still holds merit: McCarthy was a Californian and had the connections and preferences to boost the GOP there. One wonders just how much of their comparative success in CA last cycle was down to that simple allocation of resources,  both financial and internal. We may never know, and only can compare past results to future ones.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1760829711213883543?t=NPU2GfVcx9okptbFPWW...

Obvious disclaimer that Whitesides is a self-funder.  However,  the takeaway still holds merit: McCarthy was a Californian and had the connections and preferences to boost the GOP there. One wonders just how much of their comparative success in CA last cycle was down to that simple allocation of resources,  both financial and internal. We may never know, and only can compare past results to future ones.

Well at least this means the GOP will start to become more competitive in Louisiana!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New YouGov poll has Dems with the lead: 44-43%

Interestingly, the very right-trending demographic group of 18-29 years olds support the Democrats 60-29% over the Republicans. They also give the Democratic Party a +25 favorability rating. #FunWithCrosstabs

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_hi9l9P2.pdf

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/ATFintern/status/1762911061009662116

https://twitter.com/rudnicknoah/status/1762913352760610868

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1763229317323227332

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'd personally move Sykes, Deluzio, Pelota, and D'Esposito all one spot to the left, and none to the right because I don't want to.

But solid ratings overall.

[Roll Roons]

The actual changes are that NY-03 went from Lean D to Likely D and NY-22 went from Tossup to Lean D. Reasonable, though I may have also moved NY-04 to Lean D.

[Spectator]

I’d move CA-41, NY-19, NY-18, and CA-22 one tick right and ME-02, CO-08, NM-02, OH-13, and WA-03 one tick left.

[wbrocks67]

Thanks to new McLaughlin and OnMessage polls that were meh for the GOP, the 538 tracker is now back at dead even, 44.1-44.1

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Thanks to new McLaughlin and OnMessage polls that were meh for the GOP, the 538 tracker is now back at dead even, 44.1-44.1

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

I wonder if the liberal media talking about how much Trump is supposedly favored to win will cause some sort of momentum for down ballot Dems. Voters don't like either candidates, it's easy to see them gravitating towards the opposing party so that they can keep some sort of a check on them. We're already seeing how well Senate Dems are polling. Maybe we won't see any major convergence after all?