CA-22: Could Democrats be shut out of the Top 2 spots?

[Minnesota Mike]

CA-22 is widely viewed as one of the Democrats top pickup opportunities, it was Biden +13 in 2020 and incumbent David Valadao only won it by 3% in 2022. This should be one of the top battlegrounds next year but IMHO there is a real chance a Democrat won't make it as far as the general election.

First a look back at the 2022 primary. Rudy Salas was the only Democrat running and got 45% of the vote. Incumbent David Valadao got 26% of the vote, barely ahead of MAGA Republican Chris Mathys with 23% of the vote. A 3rd minor Republican candidate got 6% of the vote. In total Republicans received 55% of the vote, the Democrat 45%. The Republican advantage may have been helped by strategic voting by some Democrats for Mathys as he was viewed as the more beatable opponent but it's not unusual for Democratic turnout in this district to really struggle in primaries.

Fast forward to this year, as far as I can tell Valadao (i,R), Mathys (R), and Salas (D) are all running again. Also running is state Senator Melissa Hurtado (D). As far as I can tell there are no other candidates. So you have 2 major Republicans, 2 major Democrats and an electorate that will likely be slightly Republican leaning. If Mathys can match his 2022 performance and the Democrats split the Dem vote it's quite possible all 4 candidates finish bunched around 25% with the two Republicans on top. I don't think that is the most likely outcome but something to look for.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

This happened in CA-25 back in 2014, an Obama-Romney district located in the Northern LA suburbs.

[Minnesota Mike]

This happened in CA-25 back in 2014, an Obama-Romney district located in the Northern LA suburbs.

Remember it well. It also happened last election in the state senate when 2 Dems finished ahead of I believe 4 Republicans in a Republican leaning district.

[progressive85]

What was the Top 2 spot election supposed to do, and why is it considered a reform measure?  I don't know but I hope it doesn't expand to other states because general election voters deserve choices and if its all one party, it just would seem to me that a lot of voters just don't care.  I'm also surprised it hasn't been struck down by courts from independent candidates or third parties that file to have a place on the general election ballot.

[Minnesota Mike]

What was the Top 2 spot election supposed to do, and why is it considered a reform measure?  I don't know but I hope it doesn't expand to other states because general election voters deserve choices and if its all one party, it just would seem to me that a lot of voters just don't care.  I'm also surprised it hasn't been struck down by courts from independent candidates or third parties that file to have a place on the general election ballot.

Top 2 has been in effect for a decade in CA and longer than that in WA, it has survived every court challenge. The theory behind it is it would force candidates to be more moderate since they may have to appeal to voters of the opposite party. Whether it does that is debatable. As for 3rd party candidates they can file for the blanket primary just like anybody else..

[progressive85]

What was the Top 2 spot election supposed to do, and why is it considered a reform measure?  I don't know but I hope it doesn't expand to other states because general election voters deserve choices and if its all one party, it just would seem to me that a lot of voters just don't care.  I'm also surprised it hasn't been struck down by courts from independent candidates or third parties that file to have a place on the general election ballot.

Top 2 has been in effect for a decade in CA and longer than that in WA, it has survived every court challenge. The theory behind it is it would force candidates to be more moderate since they may have to appeal to voters of the opposite party. Whether it does that is debatable. As for 3rd party candidates they can file for the blanket primary just like anybody else..

Has there ever to your knowledge been a case where any non-D/R candidate has ever made it to the Top 2?  (Then again, they wouldn't have much better luck in the general election anyway.).  It would be interesting to see if somehow there was a blanket primary where the top 2 were something like a Republican and a Libertarian (or maybe Green), but it was a swing or slightly D-leaning district, and the only reason it happened like that was because there were too many D candidates splitting the vote.

[Minnesota Mike]

Has there ever to your knowledge been a case where any non-D/R candidate has ever made it to the Top 2?  (Then again, they wouldn't have much better luck in the general election anyway.).  It would be interesting to see if somehow there was a blanket primary where the top 2 were something like a Republican and a Libertarian (or maybe Green), but it was a swing or slightly D-leaning district, and the only reason it happened like that was because there were too many D candidates splitting the vote.

I'm sure there are plenty of other examples but last election a Green made the GE in CA-10.

[Oryxslayer]

What was the Top 2 spot election supposed to do, and why is it considered a reform measure?  I don't know but I hope it doesn't expand to other states because general election voters deserve choices and if its all one party, it just would seem to me that a lot of voters just don't care.  I'm also surprised it hasn't been struck down by courts from independent candidates or third parties that file to have a place on the general election ballot.

Top 2 has been in effect for a decade in CA and longer than that in WA, it has survived every court challenge. The theory behind it is it would force candidates to be more moderate since they may have to appeal to voters of the opposite party. Whether it does that is debatable. As for 3rd party candidates they can file for the blanket primary just like anybody else..

Has there ever to your knowledge been a case where any non-D/R candidate has ever made it to the Top 2?  (Then again, they wouldn't have much better luck in the general election anyway.).  It would be interesting to see if somehow there was a blanket primary where the top 2 were something like a Republican and a Libertarian (or maybe Green), but it was a swing or slightly D-leaning district, and the only reason it happened like that was because there were too many D candidates splitting the vote.

You can find consistent cases of some very Democratic districts producing D vs Other runoffs. There however isn't much interesting data there. Looking solely at recent Congressional races, and not the more numerous legislative ones, we have:

2016: CA-12 (81-19 Pelosi), CA-40 (71-29 Roybal-Allard)

2018: CA-05 (79-21 Thompson), CA-13 (88-12 Lee), CA-20 (81-19 Panetta), CA-34 (72-28 Gomez), CA-40 (77-23 Roybal-Allard)

2022: CA-10 (79-21 DeSaulnier)

The data shows that Dem voters stay loyal even when the opposing candidate is specifically running a  ideological campaign, either to their left or right. You just more or less are seeing the non-Dems vote for the not-Dem.

Things are far more interesting in D v D and R v R runoffs. Especially in situations where one candidate is a incumbent, cause open seats generally lead to localized tribalism rather than coalition building. In these pseudo-primaries there not just are the other parties voters available, but also the change/"throw out the bums" voters who are normally loyal to their party, various demographic or regional factions, as well as ideological cohorts. The fact no matter outcome produces the same partisan result means people are more willing to explore alternatives. Comparing Gomez's race in 2018 when he faced someone with the Green label, to his more recent issues holding off fellow dems offers the best example.




Anyway, on the topic of thread, the answer is no. Hurtado has not raised the money necessary for a campaign, and in general has seemingly failed to launch. Her position in the Senate is safe until 2026, so launching a campaign with limited long-term potential to keep up her name rec was always fine. Similarly, Salas easily obtained the CADP endorsement, something that shouldn't have happened if Hurtado was serious. That required 60% of the delegates at the convention, which had a strong presence of activists and insiders, to vote against their fellow legislator who is seemingly to his left.

Every year these top-two lockout in swing seats discussions come up and they fail to materialize. Voters individually are smart and when they have the information to know that their actions directly matter, the behave differently. There is a reason why lockouts for the opposing party historically have occurred in seats viewed as not competitive but still with a sizeable opposition base., There the electorate isn't primed to expect such an outcome and it therefore "sneaks up" on the district.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What was the Top 2 spot election supposed to do, and why is it considered a reform measure?  I don't know but I hope it doesn't expand to other states because general election voters deserve choices and if its all one party, it just would seem to me that a lot of voters just don't care.  I'm also surprised it hasn't been struck down by courts from independent candidates or third parties that file to have a place on the general election ballot.

It makes Dems actually try to win over GOP voters in a general election since they would have more influence vs a traditional R/D race.

[Tekken_Guy]

What was the Top 2 spot election supposed to do, and why is it considered a reform measure?  I don't know but I hope it doesn't expand to other states because general election voters deserve choices and if its all one party, it just would seem to me that a lot of voters just don't care.  I'm also surprised it hasn't been struck down by courts from independent candidates or third parties that file to have a place on the general election ballot.

Top 2 has been in effect for a decade in CA and longer than that in WA, it has survived every court challenge. The theory behind it is it would force candidates to be more moderate since they may have to appeal to voters of the opposite party. Whether it does that is debatable. As for 3rd party candidates they can file for the blanket primary just like anybody else..

Has there ever to your knowledge been a case where any non-D/R candidate has ever made it to the Top 2?  (Then again, they wouldn't have much better luck in the general election anyway.).  It would be interesting to see if somehow there was a blanket primary where the top 2 were something like a Republican and a Libertarian (or maybe Green), but it was a swing or slightly D-leaning district, and the only reason it happened like that was because there were too many D candidates splitting the vote.

You can find consistent cases of some very Democratic districts producing D vs Other runoffs. There however isn't much interesting data there. Looking solely at recent Congressional races, and not the more numerous legislative ones, we have:

2016: CA-12 (81-19 Pelosi), CA-40 (71-29 Roybal-Allard)

2018: CA-05 (79-21 Thompson), CA-13 (88-12 Lee), CA-20 (81-19 Panetta), CA-34 (72-28 Gomez), CA-40 (77-23 Roybal-Allard)

2022: CA-10 (79-21 DeSaulnier)

The data shows that Dem voters stay loyal even when the opposing candidate is specifically running a  ideological campaign, either to their left or right. You just more or less are seeing the non-Dems vote for the not-Dem.

Things are far more interesting in D v D and R v R runoffs. Especially in situations where one candidate is a incumbent, cause open seats generally lead to localized tribalism rather than coalition building. In these pseudo-primaries there not just are the other parties voters available, but also the change/"throw out the bums" voters who are normally loyal to their party, various demographic or regional factions, as well as ideological cohorts. The fact no matter outcome produces the same partisan result means people are more willing to explore alternatives. Comparing Gomez's race in 2018 when he faced someone with the Green label, to his more recent issues holding off fellow dems offers the best example.




Anyway, on the topic of thread, the answer is no. Hurtado has not raised the money necessary for a campaign, and in general has seemingly failed to launch. Her position in the Senate is safe until 2026, so launching a campaign with limited long-term potential to keep up her name rec was always fine. Similarly, Salas easily obtained the CADP endorsement, something that shouldn't have happened if Hurtado was serious. That required 60% of the delegates at the convention, which had a strong presence of activists and insiders, to vote against their fellow legislator who is seemingly to his left.

Every year these top-two lockout in swing seats discussions come up and they fail to materialize. Voters individually are smart and when they have the information to know that their actions directly matter, the behave differently. There is a reason why lockouts for the opposing party historically have occurred in seats viewed as safe, cause the electorate isn't primed to expect such an outcome and it therefore "sneaks up" on the district.

I also think the primary electorate will be closer to 50-50 rather than 55-45. The 2022 one was inflated because of crossover support for Valadao, since he had a high profile impeachment challenge and was generally expected to win in November because of the anticipated red wave. With Mathys being mostly an afterthought and the race being seen as competitive for November, Democrats will largely stick with voting for their own party in the primary.

A top 2 lockout is close to impossible when the two parties are evenly split and have the same number of candidates running.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

What was the Top 2 spot election supposed to do, and why is it considered a reform measure?  I don't know but I hope it doesn't expand to other states because general election voters deserve choices and if its all one party, it just would seem to me that a lot of voters just don't care.  I'm also surprised it hasn't been struck down by courts from independent candidates or third parties that file to have a place on the general election ballot.

Top 2 has been in effect for a decade in CA and longer than that in WA, it has survived every court challenge. The theory behind it is it would force candidates to be more moderate since they may have to appeal to voters of the opposite party. Whether it does that is debatable. As for 3rd party candidates they can file for the blanket primary just like anybody else..

Has there ever to your knowledge been a case where any non-D/R candidate has ever made it to the Top 2?  (Then again, they wouldn't have much better luck in the general election anyway.).  It would be interesting to see if somehow there was a blanket primary where the top 2 were something like a Republican and a Libertarian (or maybe Green), but it was a swing or slightly D-leaning district, and the only reason it happened like that was because there were too many D candidates splitting the vote.

You can find consistent cases of some very Democratic districts producing D vs Other runoffs. There however isn't much interesting data there. Looking solely at recent Congressional races, and not the more numerous legislative ones, we have:

2016: CA-12 (81-19 Pelosi), CA-40 (71-29 Roybal-Allard)

2018: CA-05 (79-21 Thompson), CA-13 (88-12 Lee), CA-20 (81-19 Panetta), CA-34 (72-28 Gomez), CA-40 (77-23 Roybal-Allard)

2022: CA-10 (79-21 DeSaulnier)

The data shows that Dem voters stay loyal even when the opposing candidate is specifically running a  ideological campaign, either to their left or right. You just more or less are seeing the non-Dems vote for the not-Dem.

Things are far more interesting in D v D and R v R runoffs. Especially in situations where one candidate is a incumbent, cause open seats generally lead to localized tribalism rather than coalition building. In these pseudo-primaries there not just are the other parties voters available, but also the change/"throw out the bums" voters who are normally loyal to their party, various demographic or regional factions, as well as ideological cohorts. The fact no matter outcome produces the same partisan result means people are more willing to explore alternatives. Comparing Gomez's race in 2018 when he faced someone with the Green label, to his more recent issues holding off fellow dems offers the best example.




Anyway, on the topic of thread, the answer is no. Hurtado has not raised the money necessary for a campaign, and in general has seemingly failed to launch. Her position in the Senate is safe until 2026, so launching a campaign with limited long-term potential to keep up her name rec was always fine. Similarly, Salas easily obtained the CADP endorsement, something that shouldn't have happened if Hurtado was serious. That required 60% of the delegates at the convention, which had a strong presence of activists and insiders, to vote against their fellow legislator who is seemingly to his left.

Every year these top-two lockout in swing seats discussions come up and they fail to materialize. Voters individually are smart and when they have the information to know that their actions directly matter, the behave differently. There is a reason why lockouts for the opposing party historically have occurred in seats viewed as safe, cause the electorate isn't primed to expect such an outcome and it therefore "sneaks up" on the district.

I also think the primary electorate will be closer to 50-50 rather than 55-45. The 2022 one was inflated because of crossover support for Valadao, since he had a high profile impeachment challenge and was generally expected to win in November because of the anticipated red wave. With Mathys being mostly an afterthought and the race being seen as competitive for November, Democrats will largely stick with voting for their own party in the primary.

A top 2 lockout is close to impossible when the two parties are evenly split and have the same number of candidates running.

Mathys wasn't high profile. Him almost beating Valadao was a total shock to everyone at the time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

With how red that seat is? Yes.

[Oryxslayer]

With how red that seat is? Yes.

This is the Valadao Hispanic seat. Not the McCarthy seat, where a top two GOP outcome is very possible. Reminder that CA districts are numbered North to South, so after redistricting there was a shakeup in numbers.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

With how red that seat is? Yes.

This is the Valadao Hispanic seat. Not the McCarthy seat, where a top two GOP outcome is very possible. Reminder that CA districts are numbered North to South, so after redistricting there was a shakeup in numbers.

Good catch.
I guess, it's pretty unlikely but the precise likelihood depends on uncertain factors such as vote consolidation (or lack thereof).

[Minnesota Mike]

With how red that seat is? Yes.

Helps if you read more than the title.

[Minnesota Mike]

* Bump

It seems more people are catching on to the possibility of a Dem shutout.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/15/valadao-democrats-primary-spending-00141568

[Spectator]

I believe several people pointed this out when Hurtado decided to jump in. I think people were shocked at how bad her fundraising numbers were given that she is a sitting state senator.

[Kabam]

I thought that some time ago.
But actually Hurtado seems weak, so Salas should consolidate enough of the vote.
The question is, if Valadao gets in over the other Republican? After all, he underperformed other Republicans in 2022.

[DrScholl]

Salas is pretty much the standard bearer for Democrats there and well liked within the district. Hurtado won re-election in the state senate district with Bakersfield in it despite not living there, but I don't think she can edge Salas out there by enough to split the vote to knock both of them out of the top two. Salas

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Salas is pretty much the standard bearer for Democrats there and well liked within the district. Hurtado won re-election in the state senate district with Bakersfield in it despite not living there, but I don't think she can edge Salas out there by enough to split the vote to knock both of them out of the top two. Salas

Hurtado raises money like James Craig. Salas will get in to the top 2 easily

[Open Source Intelligence]

What was the Top 2 spot election supposed to do, and why is it considered a reform measure?  I don't know but I hope it doesn't expand to other states because general election voters deserve choices and if its all one party, it just would seem to me that a lot of voters just don't care.  I'm also surprised it hasn't been struck down by courts from independent candidates or third parties that file to have a place on the general election ballot.

Top 2 has been in effect for a decade in CA and longer than that in WA, it has survived every court challenge. The theory behind it is it would force candidates to be more moderate since they may have to appeal to voters of the opposite party. Whether it does that is debatable. As for 3rd party candidates they can file for the blanket primary just like anybody else..

Richard Winger has routinely produced evidence in the votes of these individuals on Capitol Hill that it doesn't.

It effectively removes any 3rd parties from appearing on the ballot unless only one major party candidate files.

If you want to do to this (and the Top Four/Top Five as well), you have to remove party designations from the ballot.

[Minnesota Mike]

What was the Top 2 spot election supposed to do, and why is it considered a reform measure?  I don't know but I hope it doesn't expand to other states because general election voters deserve choices and if its all one party, it just would seem to me that a lot of voters just don't care.  I'm also surprised it hasn't been struck down by courts from independent candidates or third parties that file to have a place on the general election ballot.

Top 2 has been in effect for a decade in CA and longer than that in WA, it has survived every court challenge. The theory behind it is it would force candidates to be more moderate since they may have to appeal to voters of the opposite party. Whether it does that is debatable. As for 3rd party candidates they can file for the blanket primary just like anybody else..

Richard Winger has routinely produced evidence in the votes of these individuals on Capitol Hill that it doesn't.

It effectively removes any 3rd parties from appearing on the ballot unless only one major party candidate files.

If you want to do to this (and the Top Four/Top Five as well), you have to remove party designations from the ballot.

Third parties have the same shot as the major parties, a spot on the same primary ballot. If they are not popular enough to advance well that's politics. As for removing party designations that is a horrible idea. Low info voters may not know much about individual candidates, especially down ballot, but they usually know in general where most members of a political party stand. My only problem with Top 2 is the possibility of a fluke outcome where the most prominent party is shut out because a large field factures the vote.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Low info voters may not know much about individual candidates, especially down ballot, but they usually know in general where most members of a political party stand.

Get off your ass, give a sh*t, and become a medium info voter then.

Or just have every Republican in a supermajority Democrat district California claim they are a Democrat and take advantage of the low info voters. Why not? The point of top two is to remove any influence from the political parties on who their representative in the election is. This would take it to its logical conclusion.