MT-Sen 2024 Megathread: Unbeatable Titan Tester

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I feel like if Rosendale does run and win the primary, Senate leadership will only give him half-hearted support if they give him any support him at all.

I really think they'd prefer the seat to be held by a member of the other team who generally votes his party's line but can be a partner on bipartisan legislation than someone who would be on their team but seems to revel in stirring up chaos and being a contrarian just for the sake of it.

You're wrong. They'd rather have Cocaine Mitch as Senate Majority Leader than a Democratic majority, even if that majority is dependent on Tester's vote.

Rosendale said he's against McConnell as majority leader. And we all saw how they treated Masters a couple years ago who said the same thing.

He would still be more likely to win than Sheehy. He is completely capable of raising money on his own and even Masters wasn't completely ignored.

[MT Treasurer]

Montana is one of the states which likes it's Senators to be Populists at least in image, that's how Tester gets elected.

Sheehy is no populist, but Rosendale is.

Sheehy has officially morphed into a #populist

https://twitter.com/SheehyforMT/status/1745536601705594919

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Montana is one of the states which likes it's Senators to be Populists at least in image, that's how Tester gets elected.

Sheehy is no populist, but Rosendale is.

Sheehy has officially morphed into a #populist

https://twitter.com/SheehyforMT/status/1745536601705594919

Not really

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance still has a 40 percentage of approval and is one of the most endangered Rs in 28, along with Johnson, Sara Rodriguez is likely to run.and Greg Landsman

[JMT]

I really don’t understand why Rosendale is waiting so late to announce, if he’s actually planning on running for Senate. If he had announced earlier, he would probably be the overwhelming frontrunner. But now, he’s allowed Sheehy to raise money and get his name out there. If Rosendale was always going to run, why wait??

I still feel like Rosendale may run for re-election to the House instead. But now, he may even have primary challengers for his seat, since some contenders have already announced.

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1748150599122661464?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno...

[TML]

I really don’t understand why Rosendale is waiting so late to announce, if he’s actually planning on running for Senate. If he had announced earlier, he would probably be the overwhelming frontrunner. But now, he’s allowed Sheehy to raise money and get his name out there. If Rosendale was always going to run, why wait??

I still feel like Rosendale may run for re-election to the House instead. But now, he may even have primary challengers for his seat, since some contenders have already announced.

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1748150599122661464?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno...

Maybe he feels that he has sufficient money/name recognition to be able to afford to wait until late in the game to announce his entrance into the race - if that is indeed the case, it reminds me of how Steve Bullock also waited until the very last stage to officially enter the 2020 contest, which in his case worked out on the primary front because none of the other announced candidates back then had anywhere near the same level of money/name recognition as he did (and he had been heavily promoted by political pundits in the mainstream media as the best possible Democratic candidate for that race).

[JMT]

I really don’t understand why Rosendale is waiting so late to announce, if he’s actually planning on running for Senate. If he had announced earlier, he would probably be the overwhelming frontrunner. But now, he’s allowed Sheehy to raise money and get his name out there. If Rosendale was always going to run, why wait??

I still feel like Rosendale may run for re-election to the House instead. But now, he may even have primary challengers for his seat, since some contenders have already announced.

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1748150599122661464?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno...

Maybe he feels that he has sufficient money/name recognition to be able to afford to wait until late in the game to announce his entrance into the race - if that is indeed the case, it reminds me of how Steve Bullock also waited until the very last stage to officially enter the 2020 contest, which in his case worked out because none of the other announced candidates back then had anywhere near the same level of money/name recognition as he did (and he had been heavily promoted by political pundits in the mainstream media as the best possible Democratic candidate for that race).

I feel like it’s a bit different in Bullock’s case. There were no other credible Democratic candidates, and Bullock didn’t initially want to run for Senate. He had run for President first, and claimed to have no interest in the Senate. Bullock needed to be convinced to run for Senate by party leaders, and (perhaps reluctantly) decided to run at the last minute.

Rosendale, on the other hand, does have a strong primary opponent in Sheehy. Additionally, Rosendale has long shown an interest in the Senate (running in 2018, and toying with a 2024 run for well over a year) and Washington more generally (he ran unsuccessfully for the House in 2014 and was eventually elected in 2020).

[TML]

I really don’t understand why Rosendale is waiting so late to announce, if he’s actually planning on running for Senate. If he had announced earlier, he would probably be the overwhelming frontrunner. But now, he’s allowed Sheehy to raise money and get his name out there. If Rosendale was always going to run, why wait??

I still feel like Rosendale may run for re-election to the House instead. But now, he may even have primary challengers for his seat, since some contenders have already announced.

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1748150599122661464?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno...

Maybe he feels that he has sufficient money/name recognition to be able to afford to wait until late in the game to announce his entrance into the race - if that is indeed the case, it reminds me of how Steve Bullock also waited until the very last stage to officially enter the 2020 contest, which in his case worked out because none of the other announced candidates back then had anywhere near the same level of money/name recognition as he did (and he had been heavily promoted by political pundits in the mainstream media as the best possible Democratic candidate for that race).

I feel like it’s a bit different in Bullock’s case. There were no other credible Democratic candidates, and Bullock didn’t initially want to run for Senate. He had run for President first, and claimed to have no interest in the Senate. Bullock needed to be convinced to run for Senate by party leaders, and (perhaps reluctantly) decided to run at the last minute.

Rosendale, on the other hand, does have a strong primary opponent in Sheehy. Additionally, Rosendale has long shown an interest in the Senate (running in 2018, and toying with a 2024 run for well over a year) and Washington more generally (he ran unsuccessfully for the House in 2014 and was eventually elected in 2020).

I know it’s different in terms of intentions, but my point is that since Bullock had a clear advantage over other Democratic candidates for MT-SEN 2020 in terms of money, name recognition, etc., he was going to be considered the overwhelming favorite to win the primary the moment he officially threw his hat into the ring, regardless of when that actually occurred, and I suspect Rosendale may be similarly thinking that he could still be favored to win the primary even if he waited until late in the game to throw his hat into the ring (since other posters have commented here that Rosendale may have a stronger grip on the Republican base than Sheehy or any other Republican candidate running for this contest may have).

[MT Treasurer]

Maybe he feels that he has sufficient money/name recognition to be able to afford to wait until late in the game to announce his entrance into the race - if that is indeed the case, it reminds me of how Steve Bullock also waited until the very last stage to officially enter the 2020 contest, which in his case worked out on the primary front because none of the other announced candidates back then had anywhere near the same level of money/name recognition as he did (and he had been heavily promoted by political pundits in the mainstream media as the best possible Democratic candidate for that race).

He’s the only one who feels that way, then.. the main reason Daines doesn’t want Rosendale in this race is because he’s a terrible fundraiser/strategist and Sheehy doesn’t lack the $$$ to compete against one of the most prolific Democratic fundraisers in the nation. Yes, Sheehy is closer to the 'establishment' than Rosendale but Daines has proven flexible in other states and also settled for Trump-aligned candidates in OH/AZ. It’s mostly about two things: (a) cash, (b) party unity (the earlier, the better).

I’m far more ideologically aligned with Rosendale than I am with Sheehy, but even I see no point in delaying a Senate bid until March. Rosendale is being too contrarian and inflexible for his own good, and Daines doesn’t want to take the risk (and so far, Rosendale is proving him right). Sheehy’s being brazen when he’s trying to sell himself as an anti-uniparty J.D. Vance Republican, but give it two more months and it might work. Sheehy has also been focusing on the GE already, which makes sense given that Tester has been airing ads everywhere about how he’s standing up to Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

t's Lean D Tester and Brown, Osborne and ALLRED are gonna win, that gives Ds a clear majority 52/48

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

So, I live in Montana. Yellowstone  County, to be specific. And I've noticed a lot of Biden signs popping up lately. Keep in mind, this is a traditionally Republican county and voted for Trump overwhelmingly in 2016 and 2020. It's also a huge energy county. But Biden has A LOT of support here. I even heard a neighbor of mine say, "Yeah, I voted for Trump but I think I'm going with Montana Joe this time around -- he has our backs." And yeah, they do affectionately call him "Joetana" now. It's so weird. I'm very concerned Trump is finished this November.

[SnowLabrador]

So, I live in Montana. Yellowstone  County, to be specific. And I've noticed a lot of Biden signs popping up lately. Keep in mind, this is a traditionally Republican county and voted for Trump overwhelmingly in 2016 and 2020. It's also a huge energy county. But Biden has A LOT of support here. I even heard a neighbor of mine say, "Yeah, I voted for Trump but I think I'm going with Montana Joe this time around -- he has our backs." And yeah, they do affectionately call him "Joetana" now. It's so weird. I'm very concerned Trump is finished this November.

Signs don't vote, ask Beto O'Rourke.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, I live in Montana. Yellowstone  County, to be specific. And I've noticed a lot of Biden signs popping up lately. Keep in mind, this is a traditionally Republican county and voted for Trump overwhelmingly in 2016 and 2020. It's also a huge energy county. But Biden has A LOT of support here. I even heard a neighbor of mine say, "Yeah, I voted for Trump but I think I'm going with Montana Joe this time around -- he has our backs." And yeah, they do affectionately call him "Joetana" now. It's so weird. I'm very concerned Trump is finished this November.

Montana: Safe R -----> Safe D

[ProgressiveModerate]

So, I live in Montana. Yellowstone  County, to be specific. And I've noticed a lot of Biden signs popping up lately. Keep in mind, this is a traditionally Republican county and voted for Trump overwhelmingly in 2016 and 2020. It's also a huge energy county. But Biden has A LOT of support here. I even heard a neighbor of mine say, "Yeah, I voted for Trump but I think I'm going with Montana Joe this time around -- he has our backs." And yeah, they do affectionately call him "Joetana" now. It's so weird. I'm very concerned Trump is finished this November.

Do you think part of the reason could be transplants from COVID moving to smaller cities like Billings?

[MT Treasurer]

This all sounds very disciplined, carefully thought out and organized.

“I will tell you the overwhelming support that we’ve had now in Bozeman, stopped in little old Townsend, and here in Helena. We’re going to go to Joliet this evening. If the overwhelming support continues, then I will tell you, it heavily influences my decision,” Rosendale said in response to a question from a member of the audience who asked directly if he’s running for Senate.

“If he runs for the Senate, he’s going to get out-spent. I know that. But if you guys can put some resources into his congressional campaign now, we can build up a war chest that is sufficient just to tell our story, just to tell the truth,” Gaetz said. “… I always say, money is the mother’s milk of politics. And Rosendale is thirsty.”

“Mitch McConnell has a candidate in the Montana Senate race, and it isn’t Matt Rosendale. And that’s why I’m here,” Gaetz said. “Because I’d rather win with Matt Rosendale at 55% of the vote than with Tim Sheehy with 59% of the vote. Because only one of those outcomes gets us a rock-ribbed conservative in the Senate.”

After an introduction from Rosendale’s son, former Republican state House Rep. Adam Rosendale, the two congressmen addressed the crowd for about 40 minutes – talking primarily about their efforts to oust former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and to move the Republican House caucus further to the right, but also at times focusing on what they say are the establishment Republicans working against them on issues like the border and Republican elections.

https://dailymontanan.com/2024/01/29/rosendale-tours-montana-with-gaetz-ahead-of-decision-on-political-future/

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1755250096269144391

[SnowLabrador]

Congratulations Senator Rosendale. Trump will endorse him.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Ugh this sucks, he is going to lose the primary and we are going to lose of the best people in the house.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ugh this sucks, he is going to lose the primary and we are going to lose of the best people in the house.

Yeah aising with millionaire tax cuts isn't the best members of the H

[Storr]

Ugh this sucks, he is going to lose the primary and we are going to lose of the best people in the house.

I suppose Rosendale is going with logic of the famous LBJ quote: "The difference between being a member of the House and being a member of the Senate is the difference between chicken salad and chicken sh*t".

[SnowLabrador]

Ugh this sucks, he is going to lose the primary and we are going to lose of the best people in the house.

I suppose Rosendale is going with logic of the famous LBJ quote: "The difference between being a member of the House and being a member of the Senate is the difference between chicken salad and chicken sh*t".

Isn't Trump going to endorse Rosendale? If he does this primary is over.

[oldtimer]

Ugh this sucks, he is going to lose the primary and we are going to lose of the best people in the house.

I suppose Rosendale is going with logic of the famous LBJ quote: "The difference between being a member of the House and being a member of the Senate is the difference between chicken salad and chicken sh*t".

Being 1 out of 100 is better than being 1 out of 438.

6 year term instead of 2 too.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Ugh this sucks, he is going to lose the primary and we are going to lose of the best people in the house.

I suppose Rosendale is going with logic of the famous LBJ quote: "The difference between being a member of the House and being a member of the Senate is the difference between chicken salad and chicken sh*t".

Isn't Trump going to endorse Rosendale? If he does this primary is over.

I honestly doubt it. He famously refused to take Trump's call during the whole McCarthey thing.

Daines has a good relationship with Trump.

[President Johnson]

Ugh this sucks, he is going to lose the primary and we are going to lose of the best people in the house.

I suppose Rosendale is going with logic of the famous LBJ quote: "The difference between being a member of the House and being a member of the Senate is the difference between chicken salad and chicken sh*t".

Isn't Trump going to endorse Rosendale? If he does this primary is over.

I honestly doubt it. He famously refused to take Trump's call during the whole McCarthey thing.

Daines has a good relationship with Trump.

At least there were some earlier reports Trump world was urging Rosendale to stay out or that he can't count on the Emperor's endorsement.

[Ferguson97]

Good news for Tester. A divisive primary can only hurt the Republicans.