MT-Sen 2024 Megathread: Unbeatable Titan Tester

[MT Treasurer]

I think a big part of the reason Daines/national Republicans are so eager to stop him is because they know he’d be as much of a troublemaker for leadership in the Senate as he has been in the House.

There are three reasons establishment Republicans favor Sheehy over Rosendale. The one cited most often (electability concerns) is real but overstated, the one you gave is real but understated, the one that’s very real and can’t be overstated is $$$.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think a big part of the reason Daines/national Republicans are so eager to stop him is because they know he’d be as much of a troublemaker for leadership in the Senate as he has been in the House.

There are three reasons establishment Republicans favor Sheehy over Rosendale. The one cited most often (electability concerns) is real but overstated, the one you gave is real but understated, the one that’s very real and can’t be overstated is $$$.

Tester is up by 4 in an Emerson poll why because Tester has a 61% Approval like Beshear neither is Brown losing, Tester and Brown are doing better than Bullock and Ryan due to inc.

Consequently, Kunce and Osbourne are our 51/52 seats, like GALLEGO they are Vets that don't give tax cuts to the super rich like Shelley will do

The only seat Rs are gonna pickup is WVA

[JMT]

I’m still thinking Rosendale runs for re-election to the House. If he wanted to run for Senate, he could’ve announced already

[SnowLabrador]

I’m still thinking Rosendale runs for re-election to the House. If he wanted to run for Senate, he could’ve announced already

I hope you're right, because I don't think the "Maryland Matt" attack will be as potent this time against Rosendale. Then again, who am I kidding, Tester's doomed anyway because of presidential turnout.

[MT Treasurer]

Team Rosendale's electability case against Sheehy:

Run a scowling, frowning fat cat against a smiling, beer-drinking fat rancher, and the fat rancher wins every time. The ever-so-clever establishment wing of the National Republican Party has created, ex nihilo, The Perfect Candidate. To defeat Senator Tester? No. To defeat itself, and to deliver two more years of Democratic control to the United States Senate.

To Mitch McConnell and his loyal Montana Moderates, Steve Daines and Ryan Zinke, “perfect” translates into a blank slate candidate, drawn to the power and prestige of the office, who won’t let Constitutional fidelity or conservative principles get in the way of following the GOP leadership into the dismal swamp of compromise and corruption.

There’s no doubt that Tim Sheehy has been groomed for this moment, enhanced with clandestine political favors and massive government contracts — quite possibly with the blessings of then Secretary of the Interior Zinke. They have produced the country’s wealthiest candidate for congress. Never mind that his background is devoid of political activism, and that he wouldn’t recognize a free market principle or a conservative conviction if it bit him in the money belt.

Even now, Montanan’s love affair with the war veteran is beginning to look more like a one night stand. Sure. We’re all viscerally attracted to Sheehy’s campaign spots that highlight his combat medals and his tough-guy countenance. Those images have already been flooding our TV screens, but they are wearing thin. Voters are saying, “It’s great that you were a Navy SEAL. Thank you for that. Now what else have you got?”

SHEEHY: “What else have I got? Uh. Well, I’ve got a big house in Bozeman, an $8 million resort home in Big Sky, a $10 million private playground on Flathead Lake, 30,000 acres of consolidated ranches in Martinsdale, a company worth over a half billion dollars thanks to a merger with a Cayman Islands tax avoider, and an annual salary of $5 million. Is that enough?”

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs aren't winning this seat anyways, the Rs are having problems with LaRose and with Lake in AZ and OH. Not only that Debbie Powell is gonna win Miami Dade in FL

As I said the only state Rs gonna pickup is WV with Justice

[windjammer]

Team Rosendale's electability case against Sheehy:

Run a scowling, frowning fat cat against a smiling, beer-drinking fat rancher, and the fat rancher wins every time. The ever-so-clever establishment wing of the National Republican Party has created, ex nihilo, The Perfect Candidate. To defeat Senator Tester? No. To defeat itself, and to deliver two more years of Democratic control to the United States Senate.

To Mitch McConnell and his loyal Montana Moderates, Steve Daines and Ryan Zinke, “perfect” translates into a blank slate candidate, drawn to the power and prestige of the office, who won’t let Constitutional fidelity or conservative principles get in the way of following the GOP leadership into the dismal swamp of compromise and corruption.

There’s no doubt that Tim Sheehy has been groomed for this moment, enhanced with clandestine political favors and massive government contracts — quite possibly with the blessings of then Secretary of the Interior Zinke. They have produced the country’s wealthiest candidate for congress. Never mind that his background is devoid of political activism, and that he wouldn’t recognize a free market principle or a conservative conviction if it bit him in the money belt.

Even now, Montanan’s love affair with the war veteran is beginning to look more like a one night stand. Sure. We’re all viscerally attracted to Sheehy’s campaign spots that highlight his combat medals and his tough-guy countenance. Those images have already been flooding our TV screens, but they are wearing thin. Voters are saying, “It’s great that you were a Navy SEAL. Thank you for that. Now what else have you got?”

SHEEHY: “What else have I got? Uh. Well, I’ve got a big house in Bozeman, an $8 million resort home in Big Sky, a $10 million private playground on Flathead Lake, 30,000 acres of consolidated ranches in Martinsdale, a company worth over a half billion dollars thanks to a merger with a Cayman Islands tax avoider, and an annual salary of $5 million. Is that enough?”

I don't have your knowledge of MT obviously but personally I don't find Rosendale as a particularly weak candidate (he didn't get humiliated in 2018 frankly) while Sheehy doesn't seem to be particularly strong either.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1740522282882359674
This is getting a bit too over the top, Tester's team should tone it down a bit with the "farmer" persona. I dislike Brown too, but at least he isn't going into factories and taking photo shoots on the Marysville assembly line.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1740522282882359674
This is getting a bit too over the top, Tester's team should tone it down a bit with the "farmer" persona. I dislike Brown too, but at least he isn't going into factories and taking photo shoots on the Marysville assembly line.

Silence, Republican!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1740522282882359674
This is getting a bit too over the top, Tester's team should tone it down a bit with the "farmer" persona. I dislike Brown too, but at least he isn't going into factories and taking photo shoots on the Marysville assembly line.

Silence, Republican!

Ryan Busse is a Rancher just like Tester and Bullock is, Walsh was the only statewide D not to be reelected

When we get more S and more D H members in he won't be a Republican

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1740522282882359674
This is getting a bit too over the top, Tester's team should tone it down a bit with the "farmer" persona. I dislike Brown too, but at least he isn't going into factories and taking photo shoots on the Marysville assembly line.

That's the only thing he has going for him lol. Of course he's going to tout that. It is getting a little predictable though I will admit

[oldtimer]

Team Rosendale's electability case against Sheehy:

Run a scowling, frowning fat cat against a smiling, beer-drinking fat rancher, and the fat rancher wins every time. The ever-so-clever establishment wing of the National Republican Party has created, ex nihilo, The Perfect Candidate. To defeat Senator Tester? No. To defeat itself, and to deliver two more years of Democratic control to the United States Senate.

To Mitch McConnell and his loyal Montana Moderates, Steve Daines and Ryan Zinke, “perfect” translates into a blank slate candidate, drawn to the power and prestige of the office, who won’t let Constitutional fidelity or conservative principles get in the way of following the GOP leadership into the dismal swamp of compromise and corruption.

There’s no doubt that Tim Sheehy has been groomed for this moment, enhanced with clandestine political favors and massive government contracts — quite possibly with the blessings of then Secretary of the Interior Zinke. They have produced the country’s wealthiest candidate for congress. Never mind that his background is devoid of political activism, and that he wouldn’t recognize a free market principle or a conservative conviction if it bit him in the money belt.

Even now, Montanan’s love affair with the war veteran is beginning to look more like a one night stand. Sure. We’re all viscerally attracted to Sheehy’s campaign spots that highlight his combat medals and his tough-guy countenance. Those images have already been flooding our TV screens, but they are wearing thin. Voters are saying, “It’s great that you were a Navy SEAL. Thank you for that. Now what else have you got?”

SHEEHY: “What else have I got? Uh. Well, I’ve got a big house in Bozeman, an $8 million resort home in Big Sky, a $10 million private playground on Flathead Lake, 30,000 acres of consolidated ranches in Martinsdale, a company worth over a half billion dollars thanks to a merger with a Cayman Islands tax avoider, and an annual salary of $5 million. Is that enough?”

I don't have your knowledge of MT obviously but personally I don't find Rosendale as a particularly weak candidate (he didn't get humiliated in 2018 frankly) while Sheehy doesn't seem to be particularly strong either.

I have the same sense too.

But I just now that Sheehy will bomb, due to how laughable it is for an unknown out-of-touch urban rich guy to campaign in rural areas.

[MT Treasurer]

It is getting a little predictable though I will admit

It’s actually predictable to a T:

✔️ "Look, they’re trying to turn me into something I’m not"

It was one of his rehearsed phrases in 2018 as well, I remember him saying it a lot during that campaign. The man’s a former teacher for a reason.

Predictable isn’t always bad, of course, and neither is sticking to the tried and true when you’re counting on your opponent losing sight of the basics and getting stuck in the jungle of specifics and rebuttals like in 2006/2012/2018.

Repetition and visual/theatrical images designed to burn themselves into voters' minds have always been key components of Tester's (and most other candidates') campaign strategy. This is also nothing new.

Like you said, "predictable to a T" is not without its risks, however.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These states should be Safe R the fact that they are in play give rise to Filibuster proof Trifecta, because Trump is on the ballot

[MT Treasurer]

We’ve reached "MAGA Maggie" and "bipartisan bills" levels of performance art with this man. Thank you for taking the fight to liberal D.C. swamp creatures Jon Tester and Maryland Matt, Steve Daines!

https://twitter.com/SheehyforMT/status/1744441529119494441

If Tester loses, I demand that this thread title be changed to "Unbeatable Titan Daines."

[SnowLabrador]

Honestly, my previous prediction of Sheehy +7 might be too generous to Tester. Biden's going to lose Montana by more than he did last time considering how badly he's doing nationally.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1745065010785587615?t=m9kA46CdQhGnq8zh58tZ...

More evidence that Rosendale is running.

[SnowLabrador]

I honestly didn't think Rosendale would run. I guess this primary could be interesting. The general election will not be.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1745065010785587615?t=m9kA46CdQhGnq8zh58tZ...
More evidence that Rosendale is running.

If Rosendale runs he's the favourate in the primary and probably the election too.

[cg41386]

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1745065010785587615?t=m9kA46CdQhGnq8zh58tZ...
More evidence that Rosendale is running.

If Rosendale runs he's the favourate in the primary and probably the election too.

I would argue that Rosendale is probably the easiest candidate for Tester to beat.

[Roll Roons]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I feel like if Rosendale does run and win the primary, Senate leadership will only give him half-hearted support if they give him any support him at all.

I really think they'd prefer the seat to be held by a member of the other team who generally votes his party's line but can be a partner on bipartisan legislation than someone who would be on their team but seems to revel in stirring up chaos and being a contrarian just for the sake of it.

[SnowLabrador]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I feel like if Rosendale does run and win the primary, Senate leadership will only give him half-hearted support if they give him any support him at all.

I really think they'd prefer the seat to be held by a member of the other team who generally votes his party's line but can be a partner on bipartisan legislation than someone who would be on their team but seems to revel in stirring up chaos and being a contrarian just for the sake of it.

You're wrong. They'd rather have Cocaine Mitch as Senate Majority Leader than a Democratic majority, even if that majority is dependent on Tester's vote.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I feel like if Rosendale does run and win the primary, Senate leadership will only give him half-hearted support if they give him any support him at all.

I really think they'd prefer the seat to be held by a member of the other team who generally votes his party's line but can be a partner on bipartisan legislation than someone who would be on their team but seems to revel in stirring up chaos and being a contrarian just for the sake of it.

You're wrong. They'd rather have Cocaine Mitch as Senate Majority Leader than a Democratic majority, even if that majority is dependent on Tester's vote.

Rosendale said he's against McConnell as majority leader. And we all saw how they treated Masters a couple years ago who said the same thing.

[oldtimer]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I feel like if Rosendale does run and win the primary, Senate leadership will only give him half-hearted support if they give him any support him at all.

I really think they'd prefer the seat to be held by a member of the other team who generally votes his party's line but can be a partner on bipartisan legislation than someone who would be on their team but seems to revel in stirring up chaos and being a contrarian just for the sake of it.

You're wrong. They'd rather have Cocaine Mitch as Senate Majority Leader than a Democratic majority, even if that majority is dependent on Tester's vote.

You'll find that "Cocaine Mitch" prefers Democrats to be in charge rather than another Republican.

Leaders who stay too long become factional and bitter as time passes.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1745065010785587615?t=m9kA46CdQhGnq8zh58tZ...
More evidence that Rosendale is running.

If Rosendale runs he's the favourate in the primary and probably the election too.

I would argue that Rosendale is probably the easiest candidate for Tester to beat.

Montana is one of the states which likes it's Senators to be Populists at least in image, that's how Tester gets elected.

Sheehy is no populist, but Rosendale is.