MT-Sen 2024 Megathread: Unbeatable Titan Tester

[ProgressiveModerate]

Question for those of you from Montana/ familiar with MT politics:

How close do you think Biden has to keep MT in order for Tester to be viable, or does is Biden's performance in Montana irrelevant? Could Tester pull a Susan Collins and outrun Biden by like 20, or is the dynamics here different?

[henster]

Hillary got 35% in 2016 and Bullock was able to win his re-election 50-46 that year. Biden did six points better in 2020 getting 41%, but every Dem running statewide lost that year with none of them breaking 45%. It seems that MT is breaking away from its big ticket splitting days but its hard to determine from just one election cycle.

[Joe Republic]

Tester won by 4 in the same election that Obama lost here by 14.

(Does that mean much in 2024?  Probably not.)

[TML]

Question for those of you from Montana/ familiar with MT politics:

How close do you think Biden has to keep MT in order for Tester to be viable, or does is Biden's performance in Montana irrelevant? Could Tester pull a Susan Collins and outrun Biden by like 20, or is the dynamics here different?

2012 was the last time there was extremely widespread ticket splitting in MT; in subsequent years, ticket splitting still existed, but only Democratic incumbents running for reelection to their existing posts were reelected, while Democratic candidates who were running for positions they hadn't yet occupied (including incumbents who were termed out of their existing positions) all fell short. Given that Bullock outran Clinton by 24 points in 2016 while Tester did similarly in 2018 (after outrunning Obama by 17 points in 2012), I'd say R+25 would be the presidential margin at which it would be almost impossible for Tester to win again.

In terms of 2020, it should be noted that there were some circumstances unique to that election which are likely not replicable in 2024:

-None of the Democratic candidates running for statewide office that year were running for reelection to their existing posts. Back in 2016, Bullock was running for reelection as governor but was termed out of that position in 2020, which greatly reduced his incumbency advantage in 2020; back in 2016, all Democratic statewide candidates besides Bullock fell short (including some who were running for different positions after being termed out of their existing positions), whereas in 2020, all Democratic statewide candidates were in that position, and they all fell short. Similarly, in 2018, Tester was running for reelection and won, while all other Democratic statewide candidates on the ballot that year were running for positions they hadn't yet occupied and fell short.
-Due to the pandemic, mail-in voting was made nearly universal in MT (almost 99% of all ballots cast in MT in 2020 were absentee ballots) and Democrats drastically reduced in-person campaigning (while Republicans mostly maintained their usual levels of in-person campaigning). This ended up bringing out many more R-leaning voters than expected, given that mail-in voting benefits rural, white areas much more than Native American reservations due to pre-exsting problems with mail access in the latter areas. Exit polls indicated that the partisan composition of the 2020 MT electorate was 22D-38R-41I, whereas it was 27D-33R-40I in 2012 and 25D-29R-45I in 2018. I agree that Tester would be in trouble if he faced an electorate with a partisan composition similar to 2020, but without the unique circumstances from that election, I would expect the 2024 electorate to be more similar to 2012/2018 in terms of partisan composition than 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Question for those of you from Montana/ familiar with MT politics:

How close do you think Biden has to keep MT in order for Tester to be viable, or does is Biden's performance in Montana irrelevant? Could Tester pull a Susan Collins and outrun Biden by like 20, or is the dynamics here different?

2012 was the last time there was extremely widespread ticket splitting in MT; in subsequent years, ticket splitting still existed, but only Democratic incumbents running for reelection to their existing posts were reelected, while Democratic candidates who were running for positions they hadn't yet occupied (including incumbents who were termed out of their existing positions) all fell short. Given that Bullock outran Clinton by 24 points in 2016 while Tester did similarly in 2018 (after outrunning Obama by 17 points in 2012), I'd say R+25 would be the presidential margin at which it would be almost impossible for Tester to win again.

In terms of 2020, it should be noted that there were some circumstances unique to that election which are likely not replicable in 2024:

-None of the Democratic candidates running for statewide office that year were running for reelection to their existing posts. Back in 2016, Bullock was running for reelection as governor but was termed out of that position in 2020, which greatly reduced his incumbency advantage in 2020; back in 2016, all Democratic statewide candidates besides Bullock fell short (including some who were running for different positions after being termed out of their existing positions), whereas in 2020, all Democratic statewide candidates were in that position, and they all fell short. Similarly, in 2018, Tester was running for reelection and won, while all other Democratic statewide candidates on the ballot that year were running for positions they hadn't yet occupied and fell short.
-Due to the pandemic, mail-in voting was made nearly universal in MT (almost 99% of all ballots cast in MT in 2020 were absentee ballots) and Democrats drastically reduced in-person campaigning (while Republicans mostly maintained their usual levels of in-person campaigning). This ended up bringing out many more R-leaning voters than expected, given that mail-in voting benefits rural, white areas much more than Native American reservations due to pre-exsting problems with mail access in the latter areas. Exit polls indicated that the partisan composition of the 2020 MT electorate was 22D-38R-41I, whereas it was 27D-33R-40I in 2012 and 25D-29R-45I in 2018. I agree that Tester would be in trouble if he faced an electorate with a partisan composition similar to 2020, but without the unique circumstances from that election, I would expect the 2024 electorate to be more similar to 2012/2018 in terms of partisan composition than 2020.

Interesting analysis, but a tad bit of pushback on the idea mail voting in MT helped Rs more in terms of turnout.

Below is a 2016-->2020 turnout change map. Generally Dem areas like Missoula and Bozeman saw turnout increases of similar magnitude to the increases statewide. You can see a few Native American areas that underperformed in turnout but those are very low population communities where you may be talking about an extra 50 or 100 votes - can matter in a very close race but not gonna make a huge difference big picture. Honestly the increased turnout 2016-->2020 in MT is remarkably consistent across communities, especially in the western half of the state.

Also those sorts of exit polls can be iffy, and 2012 was so long ago pre-Trump that changes in voter regristration could have an impact. And 2018 was a unique situation of a Dem midterm where Ds invested way more in MT than Rs.

[TML]

[...]
Interesting analysis, but a tad bit of pushback on the idea mail voting in MT helped Rs more in terms of turnout.

Below is a 2016-->2020 turnout change map. Generally Dem areas like Missoula and Bozeman saw turnout increases of similar magnitude to the increases statewide. You can see a few Native American areas that underperformed in turnout but those are very low population communities where you may be talking about an extra 50 or 100 votes - can matter in a very close race but not gonna make a huge difference big picture. Honestly the increased turnout 2016-->2020 in MT is remarkably consistent across communities, especially in the western half of the state.

Also those sorts of exit polls can be iffy, and 2012 was so long ago pre-Trump that changes in voter regristration could have an impact. And 2018 was a unique situation of a Dem midterm where Ds invested way more in MT than Rs.

In terms of mail-in voting, this was the prudent thing to do from a policy/safety perspective, so I too would have expanded it to near-universal status if I were in charge. I did mention that the other major factor in the 2020 results was the Democrats' drastically reduced ground game compared to Republicans due to the pandemic, and this actually hurt Democrats in many areas across the country, not just in MT. Thankfully, this won't be a factor in 2024, so I think what will probably matter most is if Tester can avoid making critical mistakes on the campaign trail in response to attacks against him (he successfully accomplished this in his past Senate election campaigns; people like Donnelly/McCaskill/Heitkamp all made mistakes on the campaign trail that ended up eroding their popularity over the course of the 2018 campaign cycle, thereby contributing to their defeats).

In terms of voter registration, MT is one of the states which does not include partisan identification in official voter registration files, so partisan identification is self-reported; however, actual election results along with exit polls clearly indicate that the 2020 electorate in MT was much more R-leaning compared to most other recent election cycles before that.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Question for those of you from Montana/ familiar with MT politics:

How close do you think Biden has to keep MT in order for Tester to be viable, or does is Biden's performance in Montana irrelevant? Could Tester pull a Susan Collins and outrun Biden by like 20, or is the dynamics here different?

Montana is not the reddest state, but it's hell of a lot redder than a lot of people think. I think the big shift started in 2008. Barack Obama should have carried Montana on paper in a year when both of the Dakotas were single digits. Obama lost it by 2, which meant that even in the worst case scenario for the GOP they were pretty much guaranteed it on the Presidential level. I think by 2016, it was pretty clear the direction the state was heading. Yes, Bullock won, but a popular governor should be winning re-election by much more than <4% in a place like that. If you look at someone like Chris Sununu, a popular governor in a ruralish small white state should be winning by double digits. 2018 rolls around, and the GOP basically let Tester walk. Along with WV and OH, they essentially triaged the state to focus on other pickups and he won by 4ish. That's an okay result, but not something to celebrate.

There is a concept I like to think about when it comes to races like that and it's called incumbent buffer. For example, Susan Collins won by 37 points in 2014 which meant she had enough bipartisan support that she could afford to lose and still win. Tester only won by 4 which means any eroision to his support is pretty much the killing blow.

2020 rolls around and Bullock loses by double digits. Many expected the race to be within 5 points, but it wasn't even close. This is the point where Montana became a reliably Republican state. Tester only has a chance due to incumbency, an open seat would mean he is DOA.

I don't think he is finished per se, but I don't know how he survives assuming the GOP picks Sheehy. There might be an opening with Rosendale, but even still it's an uphill battle. 

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/andrewdesiderio/status/1755555306157789242?s=46&t=-r8JGl...

[SnowLabrador]

Dang it. Rosendale is much stronger than Sheehy. I think that the "out of state" attacks on Rosendale will be far less potent when he'll have been a Congressman for four years.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1755582957035671954?t=59Am0D7L1mxFyUO_1w8dR...

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1755582957035671954?t=59Am0D7L1mxFyUO_1w8dR...

lol

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1755583692129382744?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Man, Rosendale is getting absolutely CUCKED

[Pres Mike]

Will all the expats moving into Montana help Tester?

[Atlas Force]

lol

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1755583692129382744?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1755593066138722793

[JMT]

lol, Johnson is a joke

https://twitter.com/mzanona/status/1755635964217573452?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tbLk...

[Storr]

Tester is so based:

"Tester said in a brief interview he was unaware of Johnson's planned endorsement — and then withdrawal — but that: "It doesn't really matter ... It's the same race either way."

"I get to run against an out-of-stater that Mitch McConnell picked or an out-of-stater that Mitch McConnell doesn't like," Tester said."

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/02/08/congress/johnson-reverses-plans-to-endorse-rosendale-00140347

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will all the expats moving into Montana help Tester?

Marginally, but probably not going to be the deciding factor.

[Roll Roons]

Will all the expats moving into Montana help Tester?

Marginally, but probably not going to be the deciding factor.

I think migration is a bit of a wash in terms of who it favors. It seems like the people moving to Bozeman lean liberal but the people moving to Flathead County lean conservative.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will all the expats moving into Montana help Tester?

Marginally, but probably not going to be the deciding factor.

I think migration is a bit of a wash in terms of who it favors. It seems like the people moving to Bozeman lean liberal but the people moving to Flathead County lean conservative.

Agree, but on net I'd still say it's net positive of Dems - Bozeman has more expats who are more liberal than Flathead County expats are conservative. In general, transient people tend to skew liberal, making transplant more liberal. However, this works both ways; in-migration favors Dems in most states, but out-migration hurts them in most states.

[wbrocks67]

It's official

https://twitter.com/MattForMontana/status/1755988701350392259

[Roll Roons]

I'm fully convinced that McConnell will leave him out to dry if he wins the primary.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm fully convinced that McConnell will leave him out to dry if he wins the primary.

Even if Rosendale wins the primary and McConnell doesn't help him, he will win. Tester is doomed.

[JMT]

I still don’t understand why Rosendale waited this long to announce, and has barely fundraised. If Rosendale announced a year ago (or even six months ago), he could’ve denied Tim Sheehy the momentum he has now. Sheehy will raise way more money, already has endorsements, and may even get Trump’s support. Rosendale maybe could’ve prevented some of this by running earlier.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1756042170644021501?t=obQU1ytbdeH2j5kn27...

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1756042170644021501?t=obQU1ytbdeH2j5kn27...

Thank god, looks like Sheehy is going to be the nominee. Now its time to start focusing on beating Tester.