AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1621282394849378305

Trash. The idea that Lake would do better than Ducey is just asinine

This is coming from the same state that gave us Paul Gosar and Wendy Rogers. This isn’t too far from the AZ GOP electorate

Brian Kemp, Mike Dewine and Brad Raffersperger agree

The difference is Kemp has a 62% approval rating and DeWine is one of the most popular governors in the country while Ducey consistently was ranked as one of the LEAST popular governors.

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This underscores things: Sinema is in a very difficult spot. She can theoretically attack Gallego from the right and Lake or whoever the Republican is from the left, but that works to her disadvantage.

First of all very few voters care about the issues where Gallego is notably to her left, especially as he's running as a mainstream Biden-supporting Democrat* instead of Squad-adjacent. How many voters care that Gallego wants to abolish the filibuster for voting rights legislation? How many left-leaning voters will be upset that Gallego wants to raise the minimum wage? All she'd do is just help him with Democratic-leaners while conservatives weren't going to vote for him anyway.

As for the Republican yeah there's plenty she could rip into, she's definitely not in line with Lake on her nonsense or election denialism or Trump loyalism...but how would that help win over voters to her? It seems that voters fleeing the Republican would mostly go to Gallego. At most she could maybe position herself as a "sane" alternative like that she doesn't support the progressive agenda but she's not a batsh!t conspiracy mongering Trump cultist...but that would also turn off Democrats since it just makes her sound like she's trying to run as an Obama-era Republican.

This is of course assuming she even has the money and infrastructure to stage the attacks.

*Side note: This is basically what Fetterman did as well. In 2020 he was the Biden campaign's pointman for anti-"Stop the Steal" efforts and spent his time bashing that. Hence why the notion he'd be weak in the primary for not being a team player or whatever was always stupid and why he wasn't toxic in the general election.

Ehhh I think the McCain democrats who are Republicans but will vote for a dem over a MAGA Republican will vote for Sinema.
But Sinema is losing no matter what, idk if she even reaches double digits.

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Hmmm...

https://mobile.twitter.com/sambrodey/status/1628757830701355010

I wish Sinema was like Tulsi Gabbard instead of a corporate shill neolib that is far-left and woke on cultural issues.

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New Poll:

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1650512291408773121?s=46&t=XC6qQa4...

This poll shows Lake as the best performing Senate candidate

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I honestly still expected Trump to choose Lake as his VP, but I guess she wouldn't be running unless she was informed that it's not happening anymore.

He will probably be talked into choosing another, more electable woman (Haley, Noem), just like in 2016 when he wanted Christie but was persuaded by Manafort & co. to pick Pence instead.

Lmao Trump.is not picking Haley.

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https://twitter.com/FWIWnews/status/1655893932339871744

Has she decided to run as the de facto Republican like Lieberman in 2006?

Nope. Republicans hate her lol.

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If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

But I thought 2024 was supposed to be a choice election, not a referendum?
Also Sinema is more anti-Trump than she is anti-Biden. She didn't vote to convict Biden twice after all, that alone will make it impossible to get any sort of Republican support.
Sinema will take from moderate registered Rs and independents who vote Democrat in most races in the past 5 years

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https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

They will never endorse somebody who voted twice to convict Trump.

Or who is extremely socially liberal and a partisan dem on basically everything except the filibuster and taxes.

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https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

They will never endorse somebody who voted twice to convict Trump.

Or who is extremely socially liberal and a partisan dem on basically everything except the filibuster and taxes.

How is Sinema either of those things? At one point, sure, but not now

She's anti-Trump, pro-abortion, socially liberal on basically everything, she's a free trader, pro-Ukraine, votes with Biden most of the time, votes with Schumer most of the time.
Honestly the stuff that she's "moderate" on I don't care about. She's the worst in the Senate and I would even support Gallego over that poor-hating SJW.

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https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

If Lake doesn't run, I would be extremely shocked if the AZ GOP failed to recruit even some random ass state legislator to run. Even if some random small business owner gets on the ballot, they'd endorse them over Sinema.

Blake Masters will probably run if Lake doesnt, at least he's indicated as such.

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I do wonder what Sinema's next move is when it becomes increasingly obvious she has no path of winning as an independent? I do believe she's a narcissist which makes her actions hard to predict.  She could still decide she has a better chance of winning by switching to Republican and beating Lake in a primary. I could see her resigning suddenly and angling for a cabinet position or ambassadorship somewhere just to save face. She is still the big X factor here.

She would be less likely to win a Republican primary than a Democrat primary lmao

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https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

They will never endorse somebody who voted twice to convict Trump.

Or who is extremely socially liberal and a partisan dem on basically everything except the filibuster and taxes.

Luckily taxes are by far the most important issue to the GOP and their donors…
Best case scenario for the GOP at this point is that Masters and Lake both run and split the crazy vote, allowing someone electable to win. But if one of them wins I could see some establishment types/donors going with Sinema. Probably won’t help her much though.

Yeah McConnell basically signalled he's gonna abandon Arizona and spend all the money in Pennsylvania lol.

He, Thune and Cornyn tried to recruit Sinema to party switch (even though she would have lost the primary) so they definitely prefer Sinema.

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Sinema's fundraising numbers (even though Gallego's are better) indicate she is very likely running for re-election.

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Someone fill me in on why Masters would step aside for Lake if he doesn’t think she’d win. Is she just THE top dog of the Arizona GOP that you can’t challenge?

Because Lake is unbeatable in a primary.

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Someone fill me in on why Masters would step aside for Lake if he doesn’t think she’d win. Is she just THE top dog of the Arizona GOP that you can’t challenge?

Because Lake is unbeatable in a primary.

She is not. She barely won her first primary in 2022 and got under 50% of the vote in that.

That was when the establishment threw literally everything they had at her and MASSIVELY outspent her. Also she was less popular back then.

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Masters feels like he’s shaping up to be the DeSantis to Lake’s Trump.

Idk. Masters seems more adaptable like Trump is whereas Lake is more set in her ways and refuses to change. But in terms of their original support bases absolutely.

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https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1707382813551690013?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

Don't see the point in supporting McConnell. It's not really an "electable" position when literally everyone hates him.

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https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1709569396782272712

Sinema could have had an easy path to renomination, without even a challenge, and be favored for the GE. She didn't have to be a AOC 2.0, she just needed to vote like Mark Kelly. Instead, she chose to throw all away for attention.

She's trying to throw the seat to Republicans in exchange for a nice, cushy lobbying gig after she leaves the Senate. That's why she's going to run.

Or possibly a spot in a new Trump cabinet?

Trump is not appointing a ultrafeminist girlboss who agrees with Biden on 99% of issues and voted to convict him twice to his cabinet LOL.

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Wonder if Lake will try to pull a similar stunt on Sinema or if she doesn't really view Sinema as a threat to her chances of winning (could also be because Sinema isn't officially in the race yet). I can't even imagine what Sinema would do in this scenario. But she probably does like this exchange since she can use it as proof of being above the fray of partisan bickering.

Lake goes after everyone lol I'm sure she'll confront her over Trump or something.
Ngl a good strategy for Lake would be to attack Sinema and force her to defend her left-wing positions, therefore making her less popular with Republicans.

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https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1722353962483900792?t=M-ypekJFP-TUZOI...

Are people going to buy that? I think it's too late for the GOP to backpeddle on abortion after half a century of wanting it banned. That goal is too ingrained in peoples' perceptions of the Republican Party, especially after they succeeded in it. Why should they be trusted to not just be delivering lip-service?

I don't think many supporters of reproductive freedom will accept anything less than abortion being a gealth care decision between a woman and her doctor. And we shouldn't settle for anything short of that!

Late term abortion (not including cases of rape/incest/life of mother) is still very unpopular.

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https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1722353962483900792?t=M-ypekJFP-TUZOI...

Are people going to buy that? I think it's too late for the GOP to backpeddle on abortion after half a century of wanting it banned. That goal is too ingrained in peoples' perceptions of the Republican Party, especially after they succeeded in it. Why should they be trusted to not just be delivering lip-service?

I don't think many supporters of reproductive freedom will accept anything less than abortion being a gealth care decision between a woman and her doctor. And we shouldn't settle for anything short of that!

Late term abortion (not including cases of rape/incest/life of mother) is still very unpopular.

Late term abortion was illegal under Roe.

It's legal now in many states.