AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Sinema's only hope is if the democrats nominated someone like Martin Quezada and republicans nominated Andy Biggs/Mark Lamb. Then she could successfully frame herself as the "sane" option. If the democrat is a generic democrat like Stanton or even an establishment friendly progressive like Gallego she's doomed

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

People are aware of Sinema's actual voting record (which is about as "bipartisan" as Pat Toomey's), right? The only way McConnell/SLF/NRSC get behind her in some sort of GOP-flavored independent nominee scenario is if she changes her entire voting record. Has there been any indication that she’s actually willing to do that?

You know I love you man, but you(and people like Del Tachi) have to take the L here. You said Sinema would have a really good shot at winning her primary but clearly that wasn't the case or she wouldn't have done this

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'm worried about Sinema attacking Gallego more than the republican honestly

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1621282394849378305

Trash. The idea that Lake would do better than Ducey is just asinine

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1621282394849378305

Trash. The idea that Lake would do better than Ducey is just asinine

This is coming from the same state that gave us Paul Gosar and Wendy Rogers. This isn’t too far from the AZ GOP electorate

Brian Kemp, Mike Dewine and Brad Raffersperger agree

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'm worried about Sinema attacking Gallego more than the republican honestly

Over what? If she attacks him for being too progressive she just makes him look better and herself worse to Democratic voters.

But democratic voters at this point include people that are McCain Republicans who might be attracted to mushy moderates like Sinema

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hot take- Sinema is more likely to win in that scenario than Lake

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hot take- If Trump is not the nominee, the AZ Senate race is more winnable for Ds than the AZ Presidential Race

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

Lean Gallego >>> Likely Gallego

I would move it from Tilt to Lean at best. Actually starts out as a tossup. While Gallego has a good chance to beat a MAGA Republican, Democrats would make a mistake by taking this one for granted. It's really a must win.

I agree that it's a Tossup, I think Sinema is going to pull more from Ds in the end, and I think Biden will outrun Gallego. I think I want Biden at 51% here to feel good about this one.

Biden might get a higher percentage of the vote, but Gallego doesn't neccessarily need 50% of the vote to win

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

 Masters seems to have learned from his mistakes. I don’t know if it will be enough to beat Gallego but Lake would be far weaker

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Lake was a super strong candidate who outperformed the Senate candidate by 4 in 2022.

She was awful. She only outperformed him because Masters was that much worse and Kelly was far stronger than Hobbs.

I would say she ran a good campaign but she was still a bad candidate(other than the McCain remark)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I swear, if Menendez somehow won the nomination he would be more likely to lose than Gallego would be to lose to Kari Lake. She’s an absolute joke.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Man Republicans are really blowing this one lol. A less crazy republican would be very competitive here. Lake has no chance

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If she doesn't run, that's unfortunate. She would have made this race Likely D bordering on Safe D