AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Sir Mohamed]

Sinema isn't running for reelection. I said that for a while. No chance she wins now unless the GOP doesn't nominate a candidate. And that won't happen.

[Sir Mohamed]

This woman is a self obsessed clown. We cannot have her as a senator for thirty years

The Ds need to run Gallego.

You are so sure he will win? I - don't. Arizona is still very purple state, may be - even slightly red, when Republicans nominate "normal" candidate like Kimberly Yee.... And Sinema (in case of her race as Indie) will, undoubtedly, get more Democratic-leaning votes then Republican-leaning. So, in such case Democrats have a very good chance to lose (after all - they almost lost an Oregon governorship this year in similar situation, despite Oregon being much more Democratic and liberal, then Arizona)....

If one thing, Kelly proved you can be mainstream Dem and still win AZ in a neutral or slightly red environment by 4 pts. Manchin may have an excuse being from a Trump +42 state, Sinema is clearly just an attention-seeking opportunist with no principals.

I'm glad when she's out come January 2025.

[Sir Mohamed]

Imagine being delusional enough to think you can win as independent.

She basically just needed to act and vote like Mark Kelly, who's far from a socialist, and run unopposed for the Democratic nomination and be favored in a general election. Instead, all the grandstanding and attention-seeking for nothing.

Sinema thinks she's Joe Lieberman 2.0. Instead, she'll end up as Charlie Crist 2.0.

[Sir Mohamed]

PPP out with a new poll commissioned by Gallego’s team.

3-way:
Lake (R) 41%
Gallego (D) 40%
Sinema (I) 13%
Unsure 6%

2-way
Gallego (D) 48%
Lake (R) 47%

2-way
Lake (R) 42%
Sinema (I) 39%
Unsure 19%

Gallego fav: 35/27 (+8)
Sinema fav: 31/47 (-16) ……. 43/27 among Trump voters & 20/69 among Biden voters

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-poll-ruben-gallego-strongest-candidate-for-2024-az-senate-race

Extremely bad news for Sinema given that Indies poll way better than the actual results, and given her name rec, 13% is a high water mark at this point.

Not too bad, given Gallego is the least known among them and hasn't started campaigning. Also keep in mind polls overestimated Lake this year.

Horrible numbers for Sinema, as expected. Being at 13% could very well mean she doesn't break double digits since Indy/3rd party candidates tend to poll better than they actually perform in the end.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Gallego doesn't have any other serious competition, will be another gliding primary for Dems which will be helpful. Honestly at this rate, can't really see more than 5-10% of Dems defecting to Sinema with Gallego as the choice, if that.

Seems like rank and file Dems are already lining up behind him, at least behind closed doors. Expecting an announcement in the coming months.

[Sir Mohamed]

Great news, endorsed!

Seems like this clears the Dem field? Gallego is the favorite of the party apparatus and seems progressive enough for the faction to be accepted in a purple state like AZ.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lmao, Lake doing better than Ducey? Not sure if that means the poll is trash or if it means the AZ GOP is speedrunning the Colorado-ification of the state.

Didn't Lake already rule out running? Wikipedia at least says so.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1621282394849378305

[Sir Mohamed]

So who are these “no labels”

People that promote the lame talkingpoint of "both sides bad".

[Sir Mohamed]

side note - what happened to Dani Rose??

It was a sock account.

for who?! :eyes:

Svensson

And what exactly IS a sock account?

This?

[Sir Mohamed]

I almost can't believe Sinema running as indie and seeing any "path to victory". There is none. Zero. You must suffer from a special kind of delusion to assume this.

If she wasn't such an attention seeker, she could have been a favorite for reelection by just voting like her colleague Mark Kelly.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

Yup, especially if Lake is the R-nominee. That said, the group she's targeting is pretty small and I doubt she'll break double digits in the end. It will be the trouncing she fully deserves.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is there any timetable when Sinema finally makes a decision? Wikipedia just says she filled paperwork, though that's not necessarily a confirmation of a campaign. I find it hard to believe one can be delusional enough to believe there's a shot to win. And any campaign staffer/pollster telling her there's a bath isn't worth his money.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1689243570211799040

Primary: Tossup -> Safe Lake

GE: Tilt Gallego -> Lean Gallego

How long until the orange buffoon comes out and gives Lake his "complete and total endorsement"?

[Sir Mohamed]

Could Gallego end up like Rubio.

In which case, I'm laughing my butt off if Sinema ends up like Changing Charlie and gets thrown over by the GOP for similar reasons.

Gallego could very well win a 3-way race with 48.9% of the vote, but I really doubt Sinema ends up with close to 29% and/or finish ahead of Lake. Crist came in 2nd in 2010, the Dem just received 20% of the vote. Imho it's more likely she doesn't even break double digits.

[Sir Mohamed]

Kari Lake seems unwell from that article. She honestly thinks she won in 2022. It's actually really sad to see.

She has been ranting about 2022 ever since Hobbs was declared the winner. It's a new GOP trend not concede lost races anymore.

[Sir Mohamed]

Kari Lake seems unwell from that article. She honestly thinks she won in 2022. It's actually really sad to see.

She has been ranting about 2022 ever since Hobbs was declared the winner. It's a new GOP trend not concede lost races anymore.

It’s not a trend, at least not yet. Trump and Lake are really the only ones who didn’t concede.

Mastriano didn't either, just some sort of drafted letter by an aide. Roy Moore didn't concede either, as did the 3rd in GA's 2022 gubernatorial primary.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1709569396782272712

Sinema could have had an easy path to renomination, without even a challenge, and be favored for the GE. She didn't have to be a AOC 2.0, she just needed to vote like Mark Kelly. Instead, she chose to throw all away for attention.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1710097797767196959

Is this real and confirmed? What makes me skeptical is that the sound is so loud and clear. Usually from the distance this is filmed, you would expect their voices wouldn't be that loud without talking into a mic.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's official:

PHOENIX -- Republican Kari Lake, a popular former local news anchor, self-described "MAGA Mama Bear" and staunch ally of former President Donald Trump, will launch a campaign for the U.S. Senate at a rally in Scottsdale, Arizona, on Tuesday night, nearly a year after losing the state's gubernatorial race -- a defeat she still refuses to concede.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kari-lake-set-announce-arizona-senate-campaign-after/story?id=103831117

Tilt D -> Lean D

[Sir Mohamed]

https://x.com/teamtrump/status/1711934372109050041

Lake gets the Trump endorsement right out of the gate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lamb drop out soon.

Just an endorsement? Not a complete and total endorsement? Sad!

"She is strong on Crime, the Border, the Second Amendment and loves our Military and Vets."

And believes in ELECTION INTEGRITY, called out RIGGED 2020 ELECTION!

[Sir Mohamed]

The irony of all of that is that Sinema just needed to vote like Kelly or Tester instead of Manchin or even to latter's right, and she would have been perfectly fine. No primary challenge and favorite against Lake. I hope the grandstanding and stonewalling Biden's agenda was worth it.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1767549888449953865

That seems like a message that's playing well in a state like AZ.

[Sir Mohamed]

What is she even doing? lol

She really dropped the 'oh the AZ ban is not good' act after about 3 days

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1782380216993608058

If you google "how to lose a pivotal senate race", a picture of Kari Lake will show up first.