AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[President Johnson]

Ducey would be toast in a primary, given Arizona Republicans direction in recent years. They're going to nominate another far-right nutjob and end up losing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He and Lake are not going for Senate , so this is not gonna be a pickup chance

[ProgressiveModerate]

She's betting on Gallego and Finchem being nominated and then saying "look at the far left and far right" vote for a moderate instead! I think she absolutely could pull it off if she plays her cards right and plays for the moderates. She also has incumbency advantage which helps.

Part of it will probably depend upon the national "vibes". The worse things are, the more partisanship will kick in. It also depends upon how Gallego (or whoever the D is) ends up defining himself; by nature of primarying a moderate D incumbent from the left, he is going to be labeled a bunch of things that he probably doesn't want and will try and fight against.

And finally, how much of a microphone does the Media in AZ give Sinema? Do they paint her in a positive or negative light?

The closest recent example I can think to this situation would be AK-Sen 2010 where Lisa Murkowski squeeked to re-election in a write-in campaign after being defeated in the primary by a tea party R. But AK was a much smaller state, she had more of a local brand, and the seat was never seen as potentially competitive between the 2 major parties.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Part of it will probably depend upon the national "vibes". The worse things are, the more partisanship will kick in. It also depends upon how Gallego (or whoever the D is) ends up defining himself; by nature of primarying a moderate D incumbent from the left, he is going to be labeled a bunch of things that he probably doesn't want and will try and fight against.

Gallego ain't going to primary anybody. Sinema is an independent and can't run in the Democratic primary.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Part of it will probably depend upon the national "vibes". The worse things are, the more partisanship will kick in. It also depends upon how Gallego (or whoever the D is) ends up defining himself; by nature of primarying a moderate D incumbent from the left, he is going to be labeled a bunch of things that he probably doesn't want and will try and fight against.

Gallego ain't going to primary anybody. Sinema is an independent and can't run in the Democratic primary.

Srry I forgot lol, but the point still generally stands.

[ShadowRocket]

Has there been any news yet as to what the GOP primary looks like here? Jim Lamon comes to mind since he finished at a decent second place behind Masters this year. Does Andy Biggs go for it if he falls short to McCarthy in the Speaker race?

[Utah Neolib]

Has there been any news yet as to what the GOP primary looks like here? Jim Lamon comes to mind since he finished at a decent second place behind Masters this year. Does Andy Biggs go for it if he falls short to McCarthy in the Speaker race?

Kari Lake endorsed Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb who is strongly considering running. Lamon and probably some other people at least consider a run. I think Biggs might just want to push McCarthy around for the next 2 years. Ducey basically just declined a run.

[ShadowRocket]

Has there been any news yet as to what the GOP primary looks like here? Jim Lamon comes to mind since he finished at a decent second place behind Masters this year. Does Andy Biggs go for it if he falls short to McCarthy in the Speaker race?

Kari Lake endorsed Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb who is strongly considering running. Lamon and probably some other people at least consider a run. I think Biggs might just want to push McCarthy around for the next 2 years. Ducey basically just declined a run.

Thanks for the info!👍

[GeorgiaModerate]

Has there been any news yet as to what the GOP primary looks like here? Jim Lamon comes to mind since he finished at a decent second place behind Masters this year. Does Andy Biggs go for it if he falls short to McCarthy in the Speaker race?

Kari Lake endorsed Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb who is strongly considering running. Lamon and probably some other people at least consider a run. I think Biggs might just want to push McCarthy around for the next 2 years. Ducey basically just declined a run.

Sad news about Mark Lamb's family:

https://twitter.com/abc15/status/1604208027090853889

[Tekken_Guy]

Has there been any news yet as to what the GOP primary looks like here? Jim Lamon comes to mind since he finished at a decent second place behind Masters this year. Does Andy Biggs go for it if he falls short to McCarthy in the Speaker race?

Kari Lake endorsed Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb who is strongly considering running. Lamon and probably some other people at least consider a run. I think Biggs might just want to push McCarthy around for the next 2 years. Ducey basically just declined a run.

Biggs would just be doing what Banks seems to be going for, pivoting to the senate race if his leadership ambitions don’t come to fruition.

[wbrocks67]

PPP out with a new poll commissioned by Gallego’s team.

3-way:
Lake (R) 41%
Gallego (D) 40%
Sinema (I) 13%
Unsure 6%

2-way
Gallego (D) 48%
Lake (R) 47%

2-way
Lake (R) 42%
Sinema (I) 39%
Unsure 19%

Gallego fav: 35/27 (+8)
Sinema fav: 31/47 (-16) ……. 43/27 among Trump voters & 20/69 among Biden voters

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-poll-ruben-gallego-strongest-candidate-for-2024-az-senate-race

Extremely bad news for Sinema given that Indies poll way better than the actual results, and given her name rec, 13% is a high water mark at this point.

[wesmoorenerd]

PPP out with a new poll commissioned by Gallego’s team.

3-way:
Lake (R) 41%
Gallego (D) 40%
Sinema (I) 13%
Unsure 6%

2-way
Gallego (D) 48%
Lake (R) 47%

2-day
Lake (R) 42%
Sinema (I) 39%
Unsure 19%

Gallego fav: 35/27 (+8)
Sinema fav: 31/47 (-16) ……. 43/27 among Trump voters & 20/69 among Biden voters

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-poll-ruben-gallego-strongest-candidate-for-2024-az-senate-race

Extremely bad news for Sinema given that Indies poll way better than the actual results, and given her name rec, 13% is a high water mark at this point.

Gallego doing better in the 3-way than Sinema does in the 2-way? Beyond over for her.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PPP out with a new poll commissioned by Gallego’s team.

3-way:
Lake (R) 41%
Gallego (D) 40%
Sinema (I) 13%
Unsure 6%

2-way
Gallego (D) 48%
Lake (R) 47%

2-day
Lake (R) 42%
Sinema (I) 39%
Unsure 19%

Gallego fav: 35/27 (+8)
Sinema fav: 31/47 (-16) ……. 43/27 among Trump voters & 20/69 among Biden voters

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-poll-ruben-gallego-strongest-candidate-for-2024-az-senate-race

Extremely bad news for Sinema given that Indies poll way better than the actual results, and given her name rec, 13% is a high water mark at this point.

Gallego doing better in the 3-way than Sinema does in the 2-way? Beyond over for her.

Lake has said repeadily she is not  interested in being Veep.or Senate and Ducey is out

She said this to Vaughn Hilliard's

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a commuters job from Phoenix to DC just like Harris commutes on weekends from DC to SF

Sandoval is Prez of UNLV Law that's why he doesn't want S either, he can't commute and be Prez at same time

AZ, CA, NV are beautiful places to live some people don't want DC hit with snowstorm like about to happen if your kids are grown you don't need to put them in private DC school

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/kyrsten-sinema-democratic-consultants_n_63a22735e4b0f4895adfe33d

"If Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) decides to run for reelection next year, she’ll do so without the help of the big-name Democratic ad makers and pollsters who helped her win her Senate seat in 2018, and without access to the voter database maintained by the Democratic Party.

NGP VAN, which manages Democratic voter data, is set to cut off Sinema’s access at the end of January… The ad makers who worked with her in 2018, Dixon/Davis Media Group, have split with her campaign. Two other Democratic sources said polling firm Impact Research made the same decision.”

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course she voting against the Filibuster reform and allowed RS to take control of the H

[Sir Mohamed]

PPP out with a new poll commissioned by Gallego’s team.

3-way:
Lake (R) 41%
Gallego (D) 40%
Sinema (I) 13%
Unsure 6%

2-way
Gallego (D) 48%
Lake (R) 47%

2-way
Lake (R) 42%
Sinema (I) 39%
Unsure 19%

Gallego fav: 35/27 (+8)
Sinema fav: 31/47 (-16) ……. 43/27 among Trump voters & 20/69 among Biden voters

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-poll-ruben-gallego-strongest-candidate-for-2024-az-senate-race

Extremely bad news for Sinema given that Indies poll way better than the actual results, and given her name rec, 13% is a high water mark at this point.

Not too bad, given Gallego is the least known among them and hasn't started campaigning. Also keep in mind polls overestimated Lake this year.

Horrible numbers for Sinema, as expected. Being at 13% could very well mean she doesn't break double digits since Indy/3rd party candidates tend to poll better than they actually perform in the end.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

PPP out with a new poll commissioned by Gallego’s team.

3-way:
Lake (R) 41%
Gallego (D) 40%
Sinema (I) 13%
Unsure 6%

2-way
Gallego (D) 48%
Lake (R) 47%

2-way
Lake (R) 42%
Sinema (I) 39%
Unsure 19%

Gallego fav: 35/27 (+8)
Sinema fav: 31/47 (-16) ……. 43/27 among Trump voters & 20/69 among Biden voters

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-poll-ruben-gallego-strongest-candidate-for-2024-az-senate-race

Extremely bad news for Sinema given that Indies poll way better than the actual results, and given her name rec, 13% is a high water mark at this point.

Biased source, but it seems Sinema takes more from Dems than the GOP as expected (despite what many posters here believed)

[new_patomic]

PPP out with a new poll commissioned by Gallego’s team.

3-way:
Lake (R) 41%
Gallego (D) 40%
Sinema (I) 13%
Unsure 6%

2-way
Gallego (D) 48%
Lake (R) 47%

2-way
Lake (R) 42%
Sinema (I) 39%
Unsure 19%

Gallego fav: 35/27 (+8)
Sinema fav: 31/47 (-16) ……. 43/27 among Trump voters & 20/69 among Biden voters

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-poll-ruben-gallego-strongest-candidate-for-2024-az-senate-race

Extremely bad news for Sinema given that Indies poll way better than the actual results, and given her name rec, 13% is a high water mark at this point.

Biased source, but it seems Sinema takes more from Dems than the GOP as expected (despite what many posters here believed)

Taking 14 percent of Biden supporters and 9 percent of Trump supporters which is way more even than the doom some predicted either

[The Mikado]

If she even gets the signatures to get on the ballot (something a lot of people are overlooking but which is NOT EASY given she can only count signatures from registered Independents), her campaign's just gonna steadily fade like most Indy candidates do closer to the election. She maybe gets 7-8% in the end?

[Torrain]

Sinema's staff have reached the "leak stuff that makes your boss look bad before you resign" stage:

“KS has Executive Platinum status on AMERICAN AIRLINES and sometimes receives an automatic upgrade to first class. Do not rely on this; in the event that she does not get upgraded, it is important that she have a seat she is comfortable with.

First choice: KS prefers an aisle seat as close to the front of the plane as possible, except that she DOES NOT want the bulkhead row. Those seats are smaller than regular seats and are crowded. She also doesn't want the seat next to/directly in front of the bathroom on planes where there's a bathroom in the middle of the plane. Look at the seat map for every flight you book, or ask the booking agent about the flight map if you're reserving over the phone.

KS generally prefers to be closer to the front in a window seat, than further back in an aisle. It saves her time getting off the plane earlier.

Next choice: if you can't get an aisle seat, get a window seat using the same guidelines as above. This shouldn't happen often, since you're booking most flights six weeks in advance.

Last resort: Do everything in your power not put her in a middle seat. If the circumstances are such that a middle seat is the ONLY option, make sure you email KS to let her know and also provide some information about other flights she might be able to take instead that have better seating options. Don't book so late that middle seats are all that's left.”

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If she even gets the signatures to get on the ballot (something a lot of people are overlooking but which is NOT EASY given she can only count signatures from registered Independents), her campaign's just gonna steadily fade like most Indy candidates do closer to the election. She maybe gets 7-8% in the end?

Yeah, at this rate she will definitely get under 10%, and tbh I would not be surprised if it ends up under 5%.

If the real race (D vs R) is close, there are just not that many voters who will want to waste their vote on a 3rd party candidate who is far behind and has 0 chance to actually win. Most voters want their vote to count towards determining the actual winner. That is why independent/3rd party candidates always underperform polling.

[The Mikado]

If she even gets the signatures to get on the ballot (something a lot of people are overlooking but which is NOT EASY given she can only count signatures from registered Independents), her campaign's just gonna steadily fade like most Indy candidates do closer to the election. She maybe gets 7-8% in the end?

Yeah, at this rate she will definitely get under 10%, and tbh I would not be surprised if it ends up under 5%.

If the real race (D vs R) is close, there are just not that many voters who will want to waste their vote on a 3rd party candidate who is far behind and has 0 chance to actually win. Most voters want their vote to count towards determining the actual winner. That is why independent/3rd party candidates always underperform polling.

Yup. As I said above, too, I'm very skeptical about her signature gathering skills. Signature gathering is either done through idealistic volunteers who have no idea how much money they're not making doing an arduous, thankless job for free...or by professional signature gatherers who cost a fortune because people don't do that work cheap. Sinema's going to be massively outraised by both Ds and Rs (people who always talk about shadowy big money don't get how much the picture's changed...I'd be shocked if both Gallego and the R outraise Sinema by multiples every quarter once this starts. ActBlue and WinRed >>>>>>> big donors every time and have for nearly a decade now). Sinema's gonna need to blow a massive chunk of her campaign budget on paid signature gatherers and even then it's not guaranteed to work.

42k valid signatures from registered Independents only? You need to check every single person who is interested in signing to make sure they're not actually a D or R and forgot about it (lots of people don't remember their registration off the top of their heads!).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Sinema's staff have reached the "leak stuff that makes your boss look bad before you resign" stage:

“KS has Executive Platinum status on AMERICAN AIRLINES and sometimes receives an automatic upgrade to first class. Do not rely on this; in the event that she does not get upgraded, it is important that she have a seat she is comfortable with.

First choice: KS prefers an aisle seat as close to the front of the plane as possible, except that she DOES NOT want the bulkhead row. Those seats are smaller than regular seats and are crowded. She also doesn't want the seat next to/directly in front of the bathroom on planes where there's a bathroom in the middle of the plane. Look at the seat map for every flight you book, or ask the booking agent about the flight map if you're reserving over the phone.

KS generally prefers to be closer to the front in a window seat, than further back in an aisle. It saves her time getting off the plane earlier.

Next choice: if you can't get an aisle seat, get a window seat using the same guidelines as above. This shouldn't happen often, since you're booking most flights six weeks in advance.

Last resort: Do everything in your power not put her in a middle seat. If the circumstances are such that a middle seat is the ONLY option, make sure you email KS to let her know and also provide some information about other flights she might be able to take instead that have better seating options. Don't book so late that middle seats are all that's left.”

And that’s not even getting into the ethics violations!

[Virginiá]

Unsurprisingly, some staffers found these instructions—and Sinema’s zeal in ensuring they were followed to the letter—to not only be onerous but detrimental to the overall staff’s mission to serve constituents, craft policy, and communicate that work to Arizona.

“When I look back, it’s unbelievable the amount of time staffers spent just to accommodate her,” said the former aide.

The document outlines that Sinema should keep all meetings with constituents in her D.C. office limited to a block on Wednesdays. Her former aide told The Daily Beast that Sinema would stack as many constituent meetings as possible, usually no longer than three minutes, into a half-hour period on Wednesdays.

That meant that Sinema likely spent more time during the work week in physical therapy appointments and massages than with constituents. The document also outlines that scheduling “coffee meetings with lobbyists and donors are fine” and to allot those 15 to 20 minutes—a comparatively lengthy stretch of time for a senator routinely scheduled down to the second.

Add her to the list of lawmakers who work their way up not to serve their country or its people, but to finally obtain the status they need to be pampered as if they were royalty. And if they manage to wine and dine enough lobbyists and executives, hopefully cash out when they either leave office voluntarily or get booted out.

I wouldn't call this Klobuchar-level, which was so bad that she arguably deserved to be reprimanded or worse IMO, if only to set an example, but this is still a perfect case of someone who only wants power under the expectation that everything will then revolve around them and their needs. When you combine it with her extremely poor constituent services and overall treatment of her original supporters, it paints a picture of someone who doesn't care about anyone else but herself and whoever is writing her a large check.