AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Dani Rose]

Sinema's only hope is if the democrats nominated someone like Martin Quezada and republicans nominated Andy Biggs/Mark Lamb. Then she could successfully frame herself as the "sane" option. If the democrat is a generic democrat like Stanton or even an establishment friendly progressive like Gallego she's doomed

The other thing here is that both Gallego and Stanton are likely to prove broadly acceptable to most Democrats.  So you’re unlikely to see a ton of left-wing protest votes against Stanton or a ton of moderate protest votes against Gallego assuming a reasonably competent campaign and no major unforeseen skeletons in the closet.  Even a Stanton vs. Gallego primary isn’t gonna leave the loser’s supporters going “screw this, now I’m voting for Sinema.”  She’s too widely despised to even make a good protest vote option.

People who claim that Gallego is "too far left" are especially in for a rude awakening.

I also think Stanton is too. He wouldn't go far in a primary. What's the argument? He's slightly more palatable to conservatives? I dk if that's even true. If anything, it's following the Kyrsten Sinema logic that being a moderate hero just entails taking more money from divisive industries unpopular with our base.

I fully believe the AZGOP is going to finally commit electoral harakiri and nominate Wendy Rogers or Paul Gosar, as well. Pennsylvania has proven that Democrats and independents alike will rally around a progressive, like Fetterman or Gallego, when the Republican is repulsive enough. It also proved that just being the moderate option, the way Lamb positioned himself and Stanton most likely would, is not remotely enough to win a primary on its own.

[GALeftist]

I've seen people wanting Masters to run again. I have zero doubt that he would finish in third place.

[Dani Rose]

I've seen people wanting Masters to run again. I have zero doubt that he would finish in third place.

Oh good heavens that would be terrible, by which I mean amazing for us. I can't tell what would end worse for the AZGOP, retreading Masters or nominating one of their resident Nazi sympathizers, ergo Rogers or Gosar.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Your next big Fox News contributor, friends.

I imagine her eventual Fox show is going to have a truly terrible Sinema/cinema pun.

Imagine if it was the current title for this thread!

That's the only one I've seen folks come up with (As cringe as it is), so I give it a pretty high chance

[GeorgiaModerate]

Your next big Fox News contributor, friends.

I imagine her eventual Fox show is going to have a truly terrible Sinema/cinema pun.

Imagine if it was the current title for this thread!

That's the only one I've seen folks come up with (As cringe as it is), so I give it a pretty high chance

Your next big Fox News contributor, friends.

I imagine her eventual Fox show is going to have a truly terrible Sinema/cinema pun.

Sinema Verity.

[Yoda]

If she runs in 2024 and loses, what are her future prospects? Similar to Tulsi Gabbard?

I'm honestly not sure how many time slots Fox News can make available for "former democrats who effectively got kicked out of the party for being insufferable grandstanders." Maybe she'll have to settle for NewsMax

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She has a better chance now to winning running as an Indy not as a D because Gallego or Stratton are gonna see if Rs announce a challenger and if they run they can lose this seat for the D, Gallego or Stratton hasn't announced yet because if they Lose they will be like Tim Ryan why do you think she became any independent because it would be difficult for a D to challenge her

It can go both ways Gallego and Stratton whom are close to Tim Ryan are fully aware of what happened to him, he was a Prez prospect like Joe Kennedy for 28 , Ryan said Harris and Biden team, it's time to move on and he LOST, now Harris, 28 Prez is the Fav now and the only person that can challenge her nor Newsom whom is at 6 percent and won't give Reparations to carpetbagger blks, he is a hypocrite he said females can carpetbagger to Cali for abortion but you can't carpetbagger for reparations, that's not gonna help him in the D primary it's Wes Moore whom hasn't taken office yet

Gallego and Stratton said they will make a decision after the Debt Ceiling I'm the summer users are so impatient the 24 campaign gets heated up in Summer 23 not now

[MT Treasurer]

People are aware of Sinema's actual voting record (which is about as "bipartisan" as Pat Toomey's), right? The only way McConnell/SLF/NRSC get behind her in some sort of GOP-flavored independent nominee scenario is if she changes her entire voting record. Has there been any indication that she’s actually willing to do that?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

People are aware of Sinema's actual voting record (which is about as "bipartisan" as Pat Toomey's), right? The only way McConnell/SLF/NRSC get behind her in some sort of GOP-flavored independent nominee scenario is if she changes her entire voting record. Has there been any indication that she’s actually willing to do that?

Senate voting record doesn't really paint a good picture because the majority of stuff she opposes the Dems on involves nuking the filibuster. Most stuff that takes the floor for a vote is reconciliation or bipartisan stuff.

Anyway I don't think the R nominee is going to be focused on attacking Sinema at all because there is little to no benefit to it. The whole advantage of her is that she takes the moderate McCain people's votes and allows Rs to win with a plurality. Instead they likely attack the Dem as far left to increase Sinema's chances to play a spoiler.

[coloradocowboi]

People are aware of Sinema's actual voting record (which is about as "bipartisan" as Pat Toomey's), right? The only way McConnell/SLF/NRSC get behind her in some sort of GOP-flavored independent nominee scenario is if she changes her entire voting record. Has there been any indication that she’s actually willing to do that?

She's dead in the water. Both sides will use her as a Rorschach blotch to psychologicaly war against the other, but if she even runs she won't get half of what Betsy Johnson did. Forget base, who is even her donor base? They already got what they needed out of her. The NGOs and unions will back Gallego, and the corporate PACS will back the Republican. She appeals to no one, and has already returned any investment value beyond what she'll make as like the petroleum association's next spokeswoman or whatever horrible thing she decides to do in the private sector

In other news, an unofficial announcement from Gallego just hit my inbox. I am truly dismayed this guy is gonna be spamming me all throughout 2023

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

People are aware of Sinema's actual voting record (which is about as "bipartisan" as Pat Toomey's), right? The only way McConnell/SLF/NRSC get behind her in some sort of GOP-flavored independent nominee scenario is if she changes her entire voting record. Has there been any indication that she’s actually willing to do that?

You know goddamned well that 'voted with 95% of the time' is a meaningless number when you're in a position to preemptively veto anything you would vote against.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

People are aware of Sinema's actual voting record (which is about as "bipartisan" as Pat Toomey's), right? The only way McConnell/SLF/NRSC get behind her in some sort of GOP-flavored independent nominee scenario is if she changes her entire voting record. Has there been any indication that she’s actually willing to do that?

You know I love you man, but you(and people like Del Tachi) have to take the L here. You said Sinema would have a really good shot at winning her primary but clearly that wasn't the case or she wouldn't have done this

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Andy Briggs is not gonna be able to run he is tied to the insurrection for Senate and Ducey said he isn't interested and neither is Lake that only leaves Gallego and he said this morning he is thinking about running, Rs aren't winning a three way with Gallego in the race, Masters isn't gonna run and Briggs, Ducey and Lake are gone

As I said before all our Senators have decent Approvals 46/30 as well as Brown, Tester and Joe Manchin has a 51/38 Approvals and Rs keep saying that Brown, Tester and Manchin are DoA and Vance and Johnson won 37/41 Approvals, Warnock had a 46/30

Guess what Ted Cruz approvals are 43/48

Vance won with 37/41 Approvals solely based on DeWine

Of course Tester if he retires it's an R pickup but I doubt he does since Daines in NRSC chairman

[Torie]

This doomer article about the bleak prospects of Senate Dems article in 2024 posits in a conclusory manner that the Pubs have the inside lane to win the AZ seat if Sinema runs as an independent. Why would anyone who is other than in equipoise between the Dem and Pub nominees vote for her unless she had a chance to win? Are people who embrace that analysis just clueless or are they trolls, or am I missing something?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/14/opinion/kyrsten-sinema-arizona.html

[Landslide Lyndon]

This doomer article about the bleak prospects of Senate Dems article in 2024 posits in a conclusory manner that the Pubs have the inside lane to win the AZ seat if Sinema runs as an independent. Why would anyone who is other than in equipoise between the Dem and Pub nominees vote for her unless she had a chance to win? Are people who embrace that analysis just clueless or are they trolls, or am I missing something?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/14/opinion/kyrsten-sinema-arizona.html

You are talking about the New York Times, the paper that just a couple of days ago had an article saying that Elon Musk's ideology is a mystery.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This doomer article about the bleak prospects of Senate Dems article in 2024 posits in a conclusory manner that the Pubs have the inside lane to win the AZ seat if Sinema runs as an independent. Why would anyone who is other than in equipoise between the Dem and Pub nominees vote for her unless she had a chance to win? Are people who embrace that analysis just clueless or are they trolls, or am I missing something?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/14/opinion/kyrsten-sinema-arizona.html

Those options are not mutually exclusive.   But in this case I agree that Sinema's reelection chances as an independent are dim.  However, they're brighter than her chances as a Democrat.

[MarkD]

Sinema's approval rating from the Americans for Democratic Action:
2013: 50%, 2014: 40%, 2015: 35% 2016: 60% 2017: 65% 2018: 35% 2019: 65% 2020: 85%, 2021: 80%. Average: 64%.
I very likely would vote for her if I lived in Arizona. I prefer independents and/or libertarians when I vote for the US Senate.

[DaleCooper]

I'm at a hardcore show now so I'll say more when I get home/sober up but one thing I think is being underdiscussed is who exactly is Sinema going to get her campaign funds from? Corporate PACs aren't enough and probably won't even be interested, they like to back winners. Maybe she can get some hoping to keep influence for the rest of her current Senate term but those can only go so far with fundraising limits. And who is going to go doorknock for her?

People have no idea what they're talking about on financing campaigns anymore. You're absolutely right. People think "big money" is, well, big. It really, really isn't, in the age of ActBlue etc. It's wild how many people haven't noticed Dems outraising/outspending Rs basically everywhere ever in 2018, 2020, and 2022...and Indies have it much worse than Rs. Gallego will likely outraise her 5X or more every quarter, and the R will be way ahead of her as well. There is no ActBlue or WinRed for an independent candidate.

And you mentioned doorknocking, but, like I said in the other thread, she needs 42k signatures to get on the ballot. She'll need to pay signature gatherers, and they are expensive. No volunteers will touch this.

I think if she tries she PROBABLY gets on the ballot, but it's FAR from a sure thing.

Republican-aligned groups will pay to get her on the ballot.

[RRusso1982]

It also worked for Lieberman in 2006 because he was the de facto Republican nominee.  The actual Republican nominee was a token candidate, Alan Schlesinger, who had a scandal with gambling debts.  He wound up getting 10% of the vote.  For all intents and purposes, Lieberman was their guy.  just about every elected Republican in Connecticut backed Lieberman.

[5280]

KTAR News 92.3 FM

https://twitter.com/i/status/1603077897170092032

[GeorgiaModerate]

KTAR News 92.3 FM

https://twitter.com/i/status/1603077897170092032

That's not exactly a scientific sample.

[Real Texan Politics]

IT'S HAPPENING
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1603455237326413824?s=20&t=_TgSRlcZZb...

[Holmes]

KTAR News 92.3 FM

https://twitter.com/i/status/1603077897170092032

Omg Sinema will be re-elected with 100% of the vote

[President Johnson]

Imagine being delusional enough to think you can win as independent.

She basically just needed to act and vote like Mark Kelly, who's far from a socialist, and run unopposed for the Democratic nomination and be favored in a general election. Instead, all the grandstanding and attention-seeking for nothing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

C'mon Gallego get into the Dem primary NOW