AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[President Johnson]

If Sinema actually runs, I predict she's most likely to end up like Jacob Javits in 1980, after he ran on the Liberal Party line following his loss in the Republican primary. She might even get less than 11% he got back then.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_York

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Sinema actually runs, I predict she's most likely to end up like Jacob Javits in 1980, after he ran on the Liberal Party line following his loss in the Republican primary. She might even get less than 11% he got back then.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_York

Of course she will take less. Javits was a fixture of statewide New York politics for almost 30 years and well-liked in general. Sinema is a freshman senator who is loathed by Ds, Rs, and Is alike.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gallego is gonna make a decision by Jan 24 not Jan 23 we have 50 Ds already minus Manchin whom is probably gonna lose to Justice anyways and Brown and Tester have the same Approvals as Ryan did DeWine pulled Vance thru, Vance and Johnson had 37 percent favs and still won, DeWine and Rubio aren't on the ballot in 24 , OH and FL aren't gonna vote 15 pts to the right of the nation in 24 maybe 5 pts to right of nation if there is no blue wave

Gallego is probably, but won't make a decision by Jan 24 not now, the thread is pointless just like Stephanie Murphy may jump in and users are saying she can't win, she hasn'tt announced yet and neither has Gallego


If you want to check out whom is in it's bolded not Italics on www.politics1.com Gallego and Stanton and Murphy aren't in yet, Gallego is waiting for whom emerges as an R challenge, and for peat sake Lake isnt running for Sen she doesn't want a commuters job she doesn't want to live in snowy DC but live in Sunny Phoenix

[Nutmeg]

Sinema's staff have reached the "leak stuff that makes your boss look bad before you resign" stage:

“KS has Executive Platinum status on AMERICAN AIRLINES and sometimes receives an automatic upgrade to first class. Do not rely on this; in the event that she does not get upgraded, it is important that she have a seat she is comfortable with.

First choice: KS prefers an aisle seat as close to the front of the plane as possible, except that she DOES NOT want the bulkhead row. Those seats are smaller than regular seats and are crowded. She also doesn't want the seat next to/directly in front of the bathroom on planes where there's a bathroom in the middle of the plane. Look at the seat map for every flight you book, or ask the booking agent about the flight map if you're reserving over the phone.

KS generally prefers to be closer to the front in a window seat, than further back in an aisle. It saves her time getting off the plane earlier.

Next choice: if you can't get an aisle seat, get a window seat using the same guidelines as above. This shouldn't happen often, since you're booking most flights six weeks in advance.

Last resort: Do everything in your power not put her in a middle seat. If the circumstances are such that a middle seat is the ONLY option, make sure you email KS to let her know and also provide some information about other flights she might be able to take instead that have better seating options. Don't book so late that middle seats are all that's left.”

Idk this actually seems reasonable to me :/

[Mr. Smith]

She's betting on Gallego and Finchem being nominated and then saying "look at the far left and far right" vote for a moderate instead! I think she absolutely could pull it off if she plays her cards right and plays for the moderates. She also has incumbency advantage which helps.

Part of it will probably depend upon the national "vibes". The worse things are, the more partisanship will kick in. It also depends upon how Gallego (or whoever the D is) ends up defining himself; by nature of primarying a moderate D incumbent from the left, he is going to be labeled a bunch of things that he probably doesn't want and will try and fight against.

And finally, how much of a microphone does the Media in AZ give Sinema? Do they paint her in a positive or negative light?

The closest recent example I can think to this situation would be AK-Sen 2010 where Lisa Murkowski squeeked to re-election in a write-in campaign after being defeated in the primary by a tea party R. But AK was a much smaller state, she had more of a local brand, and the seat was never seen as potentially competitive between the 2 major parties.

California 2018 in a sense, given that the state Democratic Party endorsed DeLeon and not Feinstein.

[prag_prog]

I am not that surprised about the poll results...that's roughly what I expected. Sinema is lot more popular among the Radical Centrists,Never Trump Republicans on twitter...these people are very small % of electorate. The big question here is will Sinema dropout from the race or not if she is still polling around 10% during early 2024 ?

[Spectator]

I mean I can’t fault her for not wanting to sit in a middle seat. The other stuff is over the top and prima Donna though.

[Senator Incitatus]

Might donate to her campaign.

[Ferguson97]

Sinema's staff have reached the "leak stuff that makes your boss look bad before you resign" stage:

“KS has Executive Platinum status on AMERICAN AIRLINES and sometimes receives an automatic upgrade to first class. Do not rely on this; in the event that she does not get upgraded, it is important that she have a seat she is comfortable with.

First choice: KS prefers an aisle seat as close to the front of the plane as possible, except that she DOES NOT want the bulkhead row. Those seats are smaller than regular seats and are crowded. She also doesn't want the seat next to/directly in front of the bathroom on planes where there's a bathroom in the middle of the plane. Look at the seat map for every flight you book, or ask the booking agent about the flight map if you're reserving over the phone.

KS generally prefers to be closer to the front in a window seat, than further back in an aisle. It saves her time getting off the plane earlier.

Next choice: if you can't get an aisle seat, get a window seat using the same guidelines as above. This shouldn't happen often, since you're booking most flights six weeks in advance.

Last resort: Do everything in your power not put her in a middle seat. If the circumstances are such that a middle seat is the ONLY option, make sure you email KS to let her know and also provide some information about other flights she might be able to take instead that have better seating options. Don't book so late that middle seats are all that's left.”

Idk this actually seems reasonable to me :/

Yeah there's a lot to criticize Sinema over, but having worked for a number of politicians, this specifically is honestly pretty mild as far as what some of them require.

[Aurelius]

Sinema's staff have reached the "leak stuff that makes your boss look bad before you resign" stage:

“KS has Executive Platinum status on AMERICAN AIRLINES and sometimes receives an automatic upgrade to first class. Do not rely on this; in the event that she does not get upgraded, it is important that she have a seat she is comfortable with.

First choice: KS prefers an aisle seat as close to the front of the plane as possible, except that she DOES NOT want the bulkhead row. Those seats are smaller than regular seats and are crowded. She also doesn't want the seat next to/directly in front of the bathroom on planes where there's a bathroom in the middle of the plane. Look at the seat map for every flight you book, or ask the booking agent about the flight map if you're reserving over the phone.

KS generally prefers to be closer to the front in a window seat, than further back in an aisle. It saves her time getting off the plane earlier.

Next choice: if you can't get an aisle seat, get a window seat using the same guidelines as above. This shouldn't happen often, since you're booking most flights six weeks in advance.

Last resort: Do everything in your power not put her in a middle seat. If the circumstances are such that a middle seat is the ONLY option, make sure you email KS to let her know and also provide some information about other flights she might be able to take instead that have better seating options. Don't book so late that middle seats are all that's left.”

Idk this actually seems reasonable to me :/

Yeah there's a lot to criticize Sinema over, but having worked for a number of politicians, this specifically is honestly pretty mild as far as what some of them require.

When I was in college I probably averaged 12-15 flights a year. I became very good at gaming the system to get myself in the exit row as much as possible, and did everything in my power to avoid middle seats. And Sinema surely spends close to 10x as much time on a plane as I did back then. When you are basically living part time on a plane, those things do matter, a lot. And of course she has bookoo status with AA, Phoenix is their hub and she's probably flying back and forth to DC at least once a week.

It's not like she's wasting taxpayer dollars billing the government for first class fares or something of that nature. This is the kind of thing that looks silly to people who don't or rarely fly, but is perfectly reasonable to frequent flyers.

[Mr. Matt]

If Sinema actually runs, I predict she's most likely to end up like Jacob Javits in 1980, after he ran on the Liberal Party line following his loss in the Republican primary. She might even get less than 11% he got back then.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_York

Of course she will take less. Javits was a fixture of statewide New York politics for almost 30 years and well-liked in general. Sinema is a freshman senator who is loathed by Ds, Rs, and Is alike.

I'm thinking, more based on the PPP poll from the previous page, that AZ SEN 2024 will look more like OR GOV 2022, excepting that Gallego (or Stanton) doesn't have negatives from an less-than-popular legislature like then-Speaker Kotek and Sinema has much more recognition and negatives than Johnson.

[Yoda]

PPP out with a new poll commissioned by Gallego’s team.

3-way:
Lake (R) 41%
Gallego (D) 40%
Sinema (I) 13%
Unsure 6%

2-way
Gallego (D) 48%
Lake (R) 47%

2-way
Lake (R) 42%
Sinema (I) 39%
Unsure 19%

Gallego fav: 35/27 (+8)
Sinema fav: 31/47 (-16) ……. 43/27 among Trump voters & 20/69 among Biden voters

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-poll-ruben-gallego-strongest-candidate-for-2024-az-senate-race

Extremely bad news for Sinema given that Indies poll way better than the actual results, and given her name rec, 13% is a high water mark at this point.

Biased source, but it seems Sinema takes more from Dems than the GOP as expected (despite what many posters here believed)

In the very first real poll on this race, yes. What do you think a good number of the democrats who said they would support Sinema in this poll will do once they see how poorly she is polling and Gallego's name recognition grows? A good portion of them sill switch their support to him as they don't want to see a republican elected to the seat. Now, this will likely happen with some of Sinema's republican supporters as well, but as you pointed out, there's less of them at this point. I see her finishing with under 10% of the vote if she's foolish enough to go through with it.

[MT Treasurer]

Anyone else looking forward to pundits rating this one a Toss-up and MT/OH (and maybe even WV in Cook's case) Lean/Likely D in their first forecast and later pretending it never happened?

Also, Sinema taking a little more from Republicans than Democrats/Gallego isn’t that surprising to anyone who has been paying attention. I always found the idea that Sinema performing "well" as a third-party candidate (read: mid- to high single digits) would clearly hurt Democrats/Gallego rather perplexing. To the extent Sinema has any "popularity" left, it’s mostly among more conservative voters and Republican-leaning independents who think she stands up to Schumer etc., more so than among Democratic-leaning moderates or whatever. Mark Kelly just won a very easy reelection without having to resort to Sinema's silly antics, so it’s not like Democrats even "need" a candidate like her. Sinema probably wishes this was a WV-type situation where Democrats were reliant on her running again to hold the seat, but it’s clearly not, and most people not named Kyrsten Sinema actually understand that.

Everything about her past (and esp. her recent time in the Senate) suggests that she’s basically just a narcissist desperate for attention and in need of professional help. People aren’t used to politicians going on suicide missions and catapulting themselves out of office like this, so they automatically assume that said politician's actions must be the result of some well-thought-out plan or genius move when in reality it’s little other than plain insanity.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Sinema's staff have reached the "leak stuff that makes your boss look bad before you resign" stage:

“KS has Executive Platinum status on AMERICAN AIRLINES and sometimes receives an automatic upgrade to first class. Do not rely on this; in the event that she does not get upgraded, it is important that she have a seat she is comfortable with.

First choice: KS prefers an aisle seat as close to the front of the plane as possible, except that she DOES NOT want the bulkhead row. Those seats are smaller than regular seats and are crowded. She also doesn't want the seat next to/directly in front of the bathroom on planes where there's a bathroom in the middle of the plane. Look at the seat map for every flight you book, or ask the booking agent about the flight map if you're reserving over the phone.

KS generally prefers to be closer to the front in a window seat, than further back in an aisle. It saves her time getting off the plane earlier.

Next choice: if you can't get an aisle seat, get a window seat using the same guidelines as above. This shouldn't happen often, since you're booking most flights six weeks in advance.

Last resort: Do everything in your power not put her in a middle seat. If the circumstances are such that a middle seat is the ONLY option, make sure you email KS to let her know and also provide some information about other flights she might be able to take instead that have better seating options. Don't book so late that middle seats are all that's left.”

Idk this actually seems reasonable to me :/

Yeah there's a lot to criticize Sinema over, but having worked for a number of politicians, this specifically is honestly pretty mild as far as what some of them require.

When I was in college I probably averaged 12-15 flights a year. I became very good at gaming the system to get myself in the exit row as much as possible, and did everything in my power to avoid middle seats. And Sinema surely spends close to 10x as much time on a plane as I did back then. When you are basically living part time on a plane, those things do matter, a lot. And of course she has bookoo status with AA, Phoenix is their hub and she's probably flying back and forth to DC at least once a week.

It's not like she's wasting taxpayer dollars billing the government for first class fares or something of that nature. This is the kind of thing that looks silly to people who don't or rarely fly, but is perfectly reasonable to frequent flyers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everything is gonna be decided next yr and it's no need to be anxious on ratings and polls now due to fact the Eday is Nov 24 Rs are so anxious about the S they are in the same predicament in the H no one got wave insurance seats Rs didn't get 240 but got 220
Sabato and Cook haven't put out any ratings

[Babeuf]

Have a hunch we’re going to see a big Gallego fundraising number for Q4 2022. From what I’ve seen, he’s really beefed up his online and text asks since she announced the party change. We’ll see soon.

[wbrocks67]

Anyone else looking forward to pundits rating this one a Toss-up and MT/OH (and maybe even WV in Cook's case) Lean/Likely D in their first forecast and later pretending it never happened?

Also, Sinema taking a little more from Republicans than Democrats/Gallego isn’t that surprising to anyone who has been paying attention. I always found the idea that Sinema performing "well" as a third-party candidate (read: mid- to high single digits) would clearly hurt Democrats/Gallego rather perplexing. To the extent Sinema has any "popularity" left, it’s mostly among more conservative voters and Republican-leaning independents who think she stands up to Schumer etc., more so than among Democratic-leaning moderates or whatever. Mark Kelly just won a very easy reelection without having to resort to Sinema's silly antics, so it’s not like Democrats even "need" a candidate like her. Sinema probably wishes this was a WV-type situation where Democrats were reliant on her running again to hold the seat, but it’s clearly not, and most people not named Kyrsten Sinema actually understand that.

Everything about her past (and esp. her recent time in the Senate) suggests that she’s basically just a narcissist desperate for attention and in need of professional help. People aren’t used to politicians going on suicide missions and catapulting themselves out of office like this, so they automatically assume that said politician's actions must be the result of some well-thought-out plan or genius move when in reality it’s little other than plain insanity.

I don't think I've ever agreed so much with an entire post of yours before lol.

You're extremely right, especially on the WV thing. Sinema seems to be in this alternate reality where she needs to be some Manchin-type politician and AZ is WV and yet... she seems extremely delusional since Mark Kelly blew up everything she was trying to make it seem like it was.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Anyone else looking forward to pundits rating this one a Toss-up and MT/OH (and maybe even WV in Cook's case) Lean/Likely D in their first forecast and later pretending it never happened?

Also, Sinema taking a little more from Republicans than Democrats/Gallego isn’t that surprising to anyone who has been paying attention. I always found the idea that Sinema performing "well" as a third-party candidate (read: mid- to high single digits) would clearly hurt Democrats/Gallego rather perplexing. To the extent Sinema has any "popularity" left, it’s mostly among more conservative voters and Republican-leaning independents who think she stands up to Schumer etc., more so than among Democratic-leaning moderates or whatever. Mark Kelly just won a very easy reelection without having to resort to Sinema's silly antics, so it’s not like Democrats even "need" a candidate like her. Sinema probably wishes this was a WV-type situation where Democrats were reliant on her running again to hold the seat, but it’s clearly not, and most people not named Kyrsten Sinema actually understand that.

Everything about her past (and esp. her recent time in the Senate) suggests that she’s basically just a narcissist desperate for attention and in need of professional help. People aren’t used to politicians going on suicide missions and catapulting themselves out of office like this, so they automatically assume that said politician's actions must be the result of some well-thought-out plan or genius move when in reality it’s little other than plain insanity.

I don't think I've ever agreed so much with an entire post of yours before lol.

You're extremely right, especially on the WV thing. Sinema seems to be in this alternate reality where she needs to be some Manchin-type politician and AZ is WV and yet... she seems extremely delusional since Mark Kelly blew up everything she was trying to make it seem like it was.

LoL there are no ratings yet we havr two yrs for this he predicted PA, WI, AZ, NV and GA wrong and still thinks PA with Bob Casey is Lean R, a wave doesn't happen two yrs prior to Eday I have Manchin and Sinema losing and Brown and Tester winning and Gallego and Schiff and Matthew Sancramainte winning in a 52/46 PVI

RS think that we have to win the PVI by 10 in order to win red states the GCB is 48/44 D which is 51/47 the same as Obama won WV, MT and OH in 2012 no one wins PVI by 10

We post our opinion it's not fact different PVI for different Eday, Matthew Sancrainte is openly gay and since the Santos controversy Scott whom likes to paint himself macho like Rubio and Desantis can't ignore him any longer

We can't depend on Stephanie Murphy in FL why hasn't she announced anything yet it's not even on politics 1.com that she is running but we know Gallego is running, because RS don't have a candidate Lake and Ducey are out there won't be a third party split with a Blake Masters or Generic R

TX is out backup plan

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/KateSullivanDC/status/1615067463976189970

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/KateSullivanDC/status/1615067463976189970

Ah sh**t, here we go again.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gregstantonaz/status/1616194816437637121?cxt=HHwWgsC-...
Stanton NOT running for Senate.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

It'll be Gallego then. Stanton was the only other person who could've easily gotten the nomination.

[Roll Roons]

Gallego will officially jump in on Monday: https://www.newsweek.com/ruben-gallego-set-launch-senate-campaign-against-kyrsten-sinema-1775135

[Lambsbread]

Gallego will officially jump in on Monday: https://www.newsweek.com/ruben-gallego-set-launch-senate-campaign-against-kyrsten-sinema-1775135

[wbrocks67]

If Gallego doesn't have any other serious competition, will be another gliding primary for Dems which will be helpful. Honestly at this rate, can't really see more than 5-10% of Dems defecting to Sinema with Gallego as the choice, if that.