What is causing the rightward shift of Hispanic voters?

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Edit: meant to vote for Something else, not Crime

Ideological polarization + economics. Every nonwhite group is more D than you’d expect based on self-described ideology, and racial depolarization is due to every nonwhite group polarizing more along ideology.

https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/hispanic-voters-and-the-american?

Democrats are still trying to dismiss the importance of the Hispanic swing. The new line is that Hispanic voters like to vote for incumbent Presidents. People cite Bush’s 2004 run, which got 44% of the Hispanic vote, as a parallel. This could be true, but I have my doubts. 2004 was an election where the incumbent won, by a larger margin than in 2000; Whites also shifted towards Bush in 2004. 2020, in contrast, was an election in which the incumbent lost; Hispanics moved in the opposite direction to Whites. In any case, the “Hispanics like incumbents” theory is drawn from a very small sample, has no solid theory behind, is more than a bit patronizing, and in general smells like an ad-hoc self-serving piece of bullsh**t. It might be right, I guess, but Dems who embrace this explanation risk giving Republican operatives four more years to run wild with their Hispanic outreach efforts. Not a smart move in my opinion.

OK, so if it’s not the incumbent advantage, what might it be? Various other theories include:

• A concern for law & order and a dislike of “defund the police”
• Annoyance with the term “Latinx”
• A greater-than-realized concern for border security and dislike of illegal immigration
• The macho culture of MAGA
• Fear of socialism due to personal or ancestral experience with leftist regimes in Latin America
• Hispanics assimilating into whiteness and acquiring the values of White voters

Any and all of these might be true. Or it might be, as David Shor says, that Hispanics are simply more conservative than we realize, and Trump’s performance is a kind of reversion to the mean.

But I think one big, powerful explanation has been sorely neglected: Economics.

The boom of 2014-2019 — and it was a boom, even though we kind of ignored it — was good for everyone, but in percentage terms it was especially good for Hispanics:

I read some sort of religious survey the other day--I think it was from PRRI--that had Hispanic Catholics as to the left of white Catholics (and often even white mainline Protestants) across most issue areas, but somewhat more susceptible to conspiracy theories (including QAnon but not limited to it) and significantly more hostile to the Lockdowns And Mandates For All style of pandemic response. And of course Hispanic Evangelicals are more closely aligned with white Evangelicals on those topics than they are with non-Evangelicals of any race. That sort of thing, plus generally lackluster Democratic messaging that even on race relations seems geared more towards Susan from the PTA than towards Susanna from the nail salon, explains the Hispanic shift quite nicely without needing to resort to weird noble-savage assertions about muh machismo or flip-the-script insistences that acktschyewally most Hispanics are right-wing on immigration and entitlements.

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In Florida: Ronny D not being batshiit insane on abortion

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1590198542588514310

(the now-deleted tweet said something about DeSantis holding firm on a 15 week limit for abortion legality. implication was that keeping abortion legal up to 15 weeks was an important factor alongside the Hurricane Ian response)

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Write-in: it's a reversion to the mean. Obama, for whatever reason, was uniquely appealing to Hispanics, and what we're seeing now is a return to the Clinton-Bush era "norm".

I think there’s some truth to this, but i don’t totally buy it because the people who make up the Hispanic vote have changed a lot since 2004. If you do a basic (Hispanic exit poll share)*(Popular vote) calculation, the raw number of Hispanics voting in 2020 is almost double of 2004. So I think it makes sense weight the recent past a bit more than you’d do for, say, the white vote.

Quoting for emphasis, although I think Vosem’s point here also applies.

I think that it's still likely that turnout ultimately falls, as the trend of losing trust in institutions continues accelerating and eventually hooks people that, for one reason or another, would find supporting the actual Republican party unacceptable. (I think a cynical take on 'wokeness' would be that it is a movement designed to keep [racial] minorities or LGBTQ individuals with little institutional trust supporting political movements who are all about institutional trust.)

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A combination of 1, 3 and 5.

1. Significant shy pro-life vote (ironic considering everyone assumed this would be the Midwestern WWC, but they are actually shy pro-choice)

3. Hispanic people were disproportionately made worse off by COVID restrictions, plus Bernie style rhetoric really turns Caribbean/South American immigrants off.  However, this is IMO fading as an issue as COVID is behind us and Bernie and his coalition have lost influence. 

5. Very underrated and increasing in importance as an issue.  They are disproportionately taking the brunt of the street crime in cities/counties that started looking the other way around 2020.

Not familiar enough with the numbers to check this claim, but there's no Latino-specific equivalent to #stop(non-subcontinental)asianhate is there? Kind of validates the theory that groups which are more physically/culturally distinct from the socially dominant majority are more easily mobilized by the anti-"majoritarian group identity" coalition.