Trump got 38% of the Hispanic vote according to Pew Research analysis

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

[Vladimir Leninov]

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

The far more telling stat OSR, is that he got 41% with non college hispanics, and 30% with College hispanics, the GOP could fairly easily get the former to 50% and with that make some serious gains in AZ/TX/FL/NV

similar trend to whites

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

That source also has Asians voting 72-28 Biden

[Nightcore Nationalist]

That source also has Asians voting 72-28 Biden

Is that accurate?  Seems realistic.


I've heard that the exit polls were (and are generally) junk and Trump's Hispanic support was overstated, although still ~7 percent better than 2016 and a bit better than Romney.

[TDAS04]

I doubt it.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

The most interesting piece of data for me is that, according to Pew, the gender gap halved, thanks to Biden making large gains with white males while underperforming Clinton with white women. This seems to suggest that there was a significant gender factor in 2016.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Glorious news!

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

That source also has Asians voting 72-28 Biden

Is that accurate?  Seems realistic.

Definitely one of the more D-friendly estimates, and not indicative of a R swing from 2016. AP Votecast only had 70-28 Biden, most disaggregated Asian American exit polls came out to 68-30ish.

But in any case,

I knew the “shy Trump vote”/“non response bias” was real, just underestimated how big it was. AAPIs probably ended up voting more D than Latinos after all, but I figured both would swing D not R...

I feel vindicated in not supporting Biden or Sanders in the primaries, since it isn’t obvious Sanders would’ve done much better in the general than Biden (bless his campaign managers’ hearts).

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

If Democrats hadn't over relied on the Hispanic vote and preemptively decided to surrender Iowa and Ohio this wouldn't be as much of an issue. There's a reason they didn't panic over it even in defeat when Bush did slightly better among the Hispanic vote in 2004.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't think there's any doubt that Trump over-performed with Hispanics, but I think 38% still seems a bit too high. With those numbers Trump probably should have won Arizona and Nevada. Though I'm sure Republicans will insist that Trump did inf act win them because of fraud or whatever the f***.

Of course, we're analyzing them as a monolith here, and that is never a good idea with this demographic. If there's anything we should have learned about them from 2020, it's that.

[Pericles]

It's kind of weird how Trump gained so much with Hispanics and increased his Electoral College advantage. Perhaps if Trump lost a lot of Hispanic support while doing a little better with non college whites, so that the PV was unchanged, he could have increased his advantage so much that he'd have won.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I don't think there's any doubt that Trump over-performed with Hispanics, but I think 38% still seems a bit too high. With those numbers Trump probably should have won Arizona and Nevada. Though I'm sure Republicans will insist that Trump did inf act win them because of fraud or whatever the f***.

Of course, we're analyzing them as a monolith here, and that is never a good idea with this demographic. If there's anything we should have learned about them from 2020, it's that.

https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/hispanic-voters-and-the-american?

Democrats are still trying to dismiss the importance of the Hispanic swing. The new line is that Hispanic voters like to vote for incumbent Presidents. People cite Bush’s 2004 run, which got 44% of the Hispanic vote, as a parallel. This could be true, but I have my doubts. 2004 was an election where the incumbent won, by a larger margin than in 2000; Whites also shifted towards Bush in 2004. 2020, in contrast, was an election in which the incumbent lost; Hispanics moved in the opposite direction to Whites. In any case, the “Hispanics like incumbents” theory is drawn from a very small sample, has no solid theory behind, is more than a bit patronizing, and in general smells like an ad-hoc self-serving piece of bullsh**t. It might be right, I guess, but Dems who embrace this explanation risk giving Republican operatives four more years to run wild with their Hispanic outreach efforts. Not a smart move in my opinion.

OK, so if it’s not the incumbent advantage, what might it be? Various other theories include:

• A concern for law & order and a dislike of “defund the police”
• Annoyance with the term “Latinx”
• A greater-than-realized concern for border security and dislike of illegal immigration
• The macho culture of MAGA
• Fear of socialism due to personal or ancestral experience with leftist regimes in Latin America
• Hispanics assimilating into whiteness and acquiring the values of White voters

Any and all of these might be true. Or it might be, as David Shor says, that Hispanics are simply more conservative than we realize, and Trump’s performance is a kind of reversion to the mean.

But I think one big, powerful explanation has been sorely neglected: Economics.

The boom of 2014-2019 — and it was a boom, even though we kind of ignored it — was good for everyone, but in percentage terms it was especially good for Hispanics:

[Redban]

Certainly a big gain. More surprising, to me, is that Trump made little to no gain with black voters. He seemed to make a big effort for this group, and his endorsements from people like Lil' Wayne got so much publicity

[Bootes Void]

Certainly a big gain. More surprising, to me, is that Trump made little to no gain with black voters. He seemed to make a big effort for this group, and his endorsements from people like Lil' Wayne got so much publicity

Trump did gain a little among the black vote maybe a few % here and there but they are generally much more partisan than Latinos and Asian voters.

Also LOL at the idea that Lil Wayne endorsement would actually influence anybody

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Certainly a big gain. More surprising, to me, is that Trump made little to no gain with black voters. He seemed to make a big effort for this group, and his endorsements from people like Lil' Wayne got so much publicity

Trump did gain a little among the black vote maybe a few % here and there but they are generally much more partisan than Latinos and Asian voters.

Also LOL at the idea that Lil Wayne endorsement would actually influence anybody

It's only been a year since Kanye "ran" for the presidency, and armchair pundits on the internet went crazy about what a crazy impact this would make, particularly with the black vote.

[Redban]

Certainly a big gain. More surprising, to me, is that Trump made little to no gain with black voters. He seemed to make a big effort for this group, and his endorsements from people like Lil' Wayne got so much publicity

[img width=760.0000610351562 height=615]https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2021/06/PP_2021.06.30_validated-voters_00-02.png[/]

Trump did gain a little among the black vote maybe a few % here and there but they are generally much more partisan than Latinos and Asian voters.

Also LOL at the idea that Lil Wayne endorsement would actually influence anybody

It's only been a year since Kanye "ran" for the presidency, and armchair pundits on the internet went crazy about what a crazy impact this would make, particularly with the black vote.

I was referring more to the publicity that the endorsement got. People did seem to make a big deal that Trump got that endorsement from a popular black rapper. I thought that public sentiment would help Trump.

[Bootes Void]

Certainly a big gain. More surprising, to me, is that Trump made little to no gain with black voters. He seemed to make a big effort for this group, and his endorsements from people like Lil' Wayne got so much publicity

[img width=760.0000610351562 height=615]https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2021/06/PP_2021.06.30_validated-voters_00-02.png[/]

Trump did gain a little among the black vote maybe a few % here and there but they are generally much more partisan than Latinos and Asian voters.

Also LOL at the idea that Lil Wayne endorsement would actually influence anybody

It's only been a year since Kanye "ran" for the presidency, and armchair pundits on the internet went crazy about what a crazy impact this would make, particularly with the black vote.

I was referring more to the publicity that the endorsement got. People did seem to make a big deal that Trump got that endorsement from a popular black rapper. I thought that public sentiment would help Trump.

people only tout Kanye's or Lil Wayne endorsement because they are few people in hollywood or in the music industry who support republicans and so people make a big deal out of the few who do so. There  also Lil Pump and SixNine and a few other rappers who endorsed Trump but they are all degenerates so you tout the few who normies who have some respect for at least. If some entertainers endorsed democrats, nobody would care because it is expected that they would.

[Gracile]

Those Asian-American numbers seem too high, and don't really line up with precinct data in several Asian-heavy urban centers that swung toward Trump (though admittedly there might also be some differences across ethnicity, i.e Chinese/Indian, and socioeconomic status).

[OSR stands with Israel]

Those Asian-American numbers seem too high, and don't really line up with precinct data in several Asian-heavy urban centers that swung toward Trump (though admittedly there might also be some differences across ethnicity, i.e Chinese/Indian, and socioeconomic status).

“Little India” neighborhoods did swing Trump considerably

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Those Asian-American numbers seem too high, and don't really line up with precinct data in several Asian-heavy urban centers that swung toward Trump (though admittedly there might also be some differences across ethnicity, i.e Chinese/Indian, and socioeconomic status).

I saw 45 doing better with Latinos than Asians coming, but him getting 10% more of Latino voters than Asian voters is more than a little sus. (Although if Biden really got 72% of Asian voters, he almost certainly won/tied Vietnamese voters.) Every major Asian group swung R to some extent, even if it was just a matter of nonvoters being less D than regular voters.

That being said... I noticed there were a few heavily Asian suburban precincts on the West Coast where Trump's percentage actually decreased from 2016. And Asian turnout in HI was allegedly down from 2016, even as the biggest R swings were in heavily Filipino areas.

[_.]

One big reason for the surprisingly Democratic Asian numbers could be that, as is said in a tiny footnote on the bottom of the image, "Asians [were] interviewed in English only". Perhaps Asians who do not speak English are more likely to support Trump (similar to the dynamic between English-speaking and Spanish-speaking Cubans).

Nonvoters (well they aren't nonvoters anymore) are also more likely to not speak English, and more of these people came out this year than ever before, skewing the numbers.

[Adam Griffin]

I don't get why so many people are still obsessing over all of these wildly varying exit polls & breakdowns of how each group performed. Most of them are crap.

It's quite obvious -  based on looking at precinct results in virtually any metropolitan area or broader geographic segment of the country - that whites swung (by margin) 4-5 points to Biden, blacks 3-4 points to Trump, Asians 5-7 points to Trump and Latinos 7-10 points to Trump.

Polls and breakdowns that show anything else are frankly garbage. In this particular example, no, Trump obviously did not get 38% of the Latino vote.

The oversimplified net explanation we've seen over the past 8 years is this: Clinton lost 5% of Latinos (which were won by Obama in 2012) to 3P candidates in 2016, and Trump picked up said 3P voters outright in 2020. A similar (but varied) mathematical explanation applies to Asian voters and (to a lesser degree) black voters as well. Obviously there are 3P voters who went D, non-voters who went R, etc, but this is arguably the single-biggest and simplest explanation of what's transpired over the past 2 elections.

[DC Guy]

The 2016 election why unusally partisan regarding races. It took the trends of the Obama era to the extreme

2020 was a slight backtracking. Some results are closer to the 2012 and some are closer to the pre-Obama era

[Non Swing Voter]

Exit polls really aren't as good as people hold them out to be.

Exit polls also showed Trump winning college educated whites in 2016 and then further more detailed analysis like a year later rebutted that.  That said, I do think Trump probably improved among hispanics for a lot of anecdotal reasons (Miami vote, Nevada vote, the fact that he toned down his built the wall rhetoric).  The way the parties are going asians should naturally move to the Democrats and Hispanics should trend slightly to Republicans.  But Trump disrupted that somewhat with his overt racism, so who knows.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Certainly a big gain. More surprising, to me, is that Trump made little to no gain with black voters. He seemed to make a big effort for this group, and his endorsements from people like Lil' Wayne got so much publicity

IIRC, Trump only gained 1% with AA voters.  But since turnout skyrocketed across the board, Biden on net improved from 2016 by a noninsignificant amount.

Not only was the Trump campaign cheap pandering, but it was clearly and openly cheap pandering (see: the "platinum plan").  I hope they learned their lesson.