What is causing the rightward shift of Hispanic voters?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 10:50:38 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  What is causing the rightward shift of Hispanic voters?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: What is causing the rightward shift of Hispanic voters towards the GOP?
#1
Social Conservatism/Religion (Dems being too liberal)
 
#2
Economic policy (fear of "socialism")
 
#3
GOP Outreach in Hispanic communities
 
#4
Trump appeals to them
 
#5
Crime
 
#6
Immigration policy
 
#7
Something else (explain)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: What is causing the rightward shift of Hispanic voters?  (Read 2408 times)
EJ24
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 06, 2022, 07:50:22 PM »

?
Logged
ملكة كرينجيتوك
khuzifenq
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,314
United States


P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2022, 08:06:43 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2022, 12:06:10 AM by Kamala's side hoe »

Edit: meant to vote for Something else, not Crime

Ideological polarization + economics. Every nonwhite group is more D than you’d expect based on self-described ideology, and racial depolarization is due to every nonwhite group polarizing more along ideology.

https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/hispanic-voters-and-the-american?

Quote
Democrats are still trying to dismiss the importance of the Hispanic swing. The new line is that Hispanic voters like to vote for incumbent Presidents. People cite Bush’s 2004 run, which got 44% of the Hispanic vote, as a parallel. This could be true, but I have my doubts. 2004 was an election where the incumbent won, by a larger margin than in 2000; Whites also shifted towards Bush in 2004. 2020, in contrast, was an election in which the incumbent lost; Hispanics moved in the opposite direction to Whites. In any case, the “Hispanics like incumbents” theory is drawn from a very small sample, has no solid theory behind, is more than a bit patronizing, and in general smells like an ad-hoc self-serving piece of bullsh**t. It might be right, I guess, but Dems who embrace this explanation risk giving Republican operatives four more years to run wild with their Hispanic outreach efforts. Not a smart move in my opinion.

OK, so if it’s not the incumbent advantage, what might it be? Various other theories include:

  • A concern for law & order and a dislike of “defund the police”
  • Annoyance with the term “Latinx”
  • A greater-than-realized concern for border security and dislike of illegal immigration
  • The macho culture of MAGA
  • Fear of socialism due to personal or ancestral experience with leftist regimes in Latin America
  • Hispanics assimilating into whiteness and acquiring the values of White voters

Any and all of these might be true. Or it might be, as David Shor says, that Hispanics are simply more conservative than we realize, and Trump’s performance is a kind of reversion to the mean.

But I think one big, powerful explanation has been sorely neglected: Economics.

The boom of 2014-2019 — and it was a boom, even though we kind of ignored it — was good for everyone, but in percentage terms it was especially good for Hispanics:





I read some sort of religious survey the other day--I think it was from PRRI--that had Hispanic Catholics as to the left of white Catholics (and often even white mainline Protestants) across most issue areas, but somewhat more susceptible to conspiracy theories (including QAnon but not limited to it) and significantly more hostile to the Lockdowns And Mandates For All style of pandemic response. And of course Hispanic Evangelicals are more closely aligned with white Evangelicals on those topics than they are with non-Evangelicals of any race. That sort of thing, plus generally lackluster Democratic messaging that even on race relations seems geared more towards Susan from the PTA than towards Susanna from the nail salon, explains the Hispanic shift quite nicely without needing to resort to weird noble-savage assertions about muh machismo or flip-the-script insistences that acktschyewally most Hispanics are right-wing on immigration and entitlements.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,625
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2022, 09:42:49 PM »

Voted #2, although it's really a mixture of #2 and #3 because these are inextricable from each other.
Logged
TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,404


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2022, 12:14:40 AM »

This rightward shift makes more sense if you don't treat Hispanics as a monolith (which is a mistake many Democratic consultants and/or establishment Democratic politicians are making). For example, shortly after the 2020 election, an article appeared in Politico where the author explained that Republican gains in Southern Texas are mostly the result of increased turnout among Tejanos rather than Latinos - the former group refers to people whose families have already been in the US for many generations (and are thus more likely to consider themselves White instead of people of color), while the latter group refers to people who immigrated to the US within the last several generations (and are thus more likely to consider themselves people of color). Similar patterns exist elsewhere in the country - Hispanics whose families came to the US many generations ago are more likely to consider themselves White, and thus require different voter outreach approaches compared to Hispanics who immigrated to the US within the last several generations (and the Biden campaign really took Hispanics for granted, compared to Obama & Hillary).
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,711
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2022, 10:57:55 AM »

I think it's mostly some combination of #1, #2 and #4
Logged
ملكة كرينجيتوك
khuzifenq
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,314
United States


P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2022, 05:01:22 PM »
« Edited: November 12, 2022, 03:11:15 PM by Kamala's side hoe »

In Florida: Ronny D not being batshiit insane on abortion



(the now-deleted tweet said something about DeSantis holding firm on a 15 week limit for abortion legality. implication was that keeping abortion legal up to 15 weeks was an important factor alongside the Hurricane Ian response)
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2023, 01:31:02 PM »

Assimilation. Hispanics are heavily intermarrying with Anglos, and which way the cultural assimilation goes is not always certain. How do the children identify? You would be surprised, but Puerto Rico is "whiter" than America as a whole.

There is some trend of Hispanics into evangelical Protestant churches, which is one of the most likely ways into "conservative" values in politics.
Logged
The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
laddicus finch
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2023, 11:55:26 PM »

A myriad of factors, all of the factors you mentioned could be a good explanation and it all depends on the community. Fear of socialism would make more sense for Cubans and Venezuelans, while border issues/social conservatism seem to be the rightward push factor for Tejanos.

One that you didn't mention is assimilation. The more a minority group assimilates into the mainstream, the more right wing they tend to get. Race must play a factor, especially for white Hispanics who would naturally feel less like a minority than a very visibly non-white group like black or Asian Americans, and therefore less likely to vote on the basis of in-group preferences
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,812
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2023, 01:49:42 PM »

Write-in: it's a reversion to the mean. Obama, for whatever reason, was uniquely appealing to Hispanics, and what we're seeing now is a return to the Clinton-Bush era "norm".
Logged
crazy jimmie
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,513


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 11, 2023, 02:31:36 PM »

even the gop leaning latins can be hot as well!

let them in!!!!!!!!!
Logged
Snow Belt Republican
Ragnaroni
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,352
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: 1.74

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 11, 2023, 03:45:38 PM »

even the gop leaning latins can be hot as well!

let them in!!!!!!!!!
LET THE CUBANAS IN PLEASE!!!
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,080
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2023, 03:51:00 PM »

1 or 3.  It's really only #2 in Florida. Voted 3.
Logged
BG-NY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,530


Political Matrix
E: -1.23, S: 0.42

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2023, 05:04:37 PM »

Alernate hypothesis.

Hispanics are not necessarily trending right, they are just less likely to identify as white than they were in the past few decades.

Hispanics who voted republican have always been more likely to identify as white, and Hispanics who identify as white have been more likely to vote republican.

Given that Hispanics have surpassed blacks as the largest 'minority' group in America, there is less reason to identify as white. Because Hispanic is no longer considered a minority to the same extent.
Logged
pikachu
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,180
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2023, 07:27:19 PM »

Write-in: it's a reversion to the mean. Obama, for whatever reason, was uniquely appealing to Hispanics, and what we're seeing now is a return to the Clinton-Bush era "norm".

I think there’s some truth to this, but i don’t totally buy it because the people who make up the Hispanic vote have changed a lot since 2004. If you do a basic (Hispanic exit poll share)*(Popular vote) calculation, the raw number of Hispanics voting in 2020 is almost double of 2004. So I think it makes sense weight the recent past a bit more than you’d do for, say, the white vote.
Logged
Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,097
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 12, 2023, 12:03:37 AM »

even the gop leaning latins can be hot as well!

let them in!!!!!!!!!

James "If he's white, he's not right" Pol
Logged
ملكة كرينجيتوك
khuzifenq
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,314
United States


P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 12, 2023, 10:40:11 PM »

Write-in: it's a reversion to the mean. Obama, for whatever reason, was uniquely appealing to Hispanics, and what we're seeing now is a return to the Clinton-Bush era "norm".

I think there’s some truth to this, but i don’t totally buy it because the people who make up the Hispanic vote have changed a lot since 2004. If you do a basic (Hispanic exit poll share)*(Popular vote) calculation, the raw number of Hispanics voting in 2020 is almost double of 2004. So I think it makes sense weight the recent past a bit more than you’d do for, say, the white vote.

Quoting for emphasis, although I think Vosem’s point here also applies.

I think that it's still likely that turnout ultimately falls, as the trend of losing trust in institutions continues accelerating and eventually hooks people that, for one reason or another, would find supporting the actual Republican party unacceptable. (I think a cynical take on 'wokeness' would be that it is a movement designed to keep [racial] minorities or LGBTQ individuals with little institutional trust supporting political movements who are all about institutional trust.)
Logged
Pres Mike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,243
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 19, 2023, 02:01:01 PM »

Voter turnout went from 55 to 66% from 2016 to 2020. Millions of first time voters. I suspect that some Hispanic voters for Trump were already conservative leaning but never cast a ballot before.

Texas went from 47 to 67% voter turnout.
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,802


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 19, 2023, 03:08:34 PM »
« Edited: February 21, 2023, 12:42:37 AM by Two Scoops »

It's tied up in large part with the general dealignment of the working class, but hispanics aren't a monolith and there's a lot of moving parts to the community. For some, the unique excitement over the first non-white president started dying down, and Biden has fewer ties to the community than even Clinton did. Conversely, some might have been swept up in the racism against Obama. Tejanos in particular liked the rising anti-immigration rhetoric in the 2010s. Others still might have been disaffected with the relative deemphasizing on Democrats' part of the rights of migrants and the community as a whole since about 2018.

Particularly with Mexican-Americans in states with a big tourism and hospitality industry, there was a strong reaction from small business owners and service sector workers to COVID shutdown measures. There's also been a lot of outreach since 2012 to Cuban-Americans and probably a positive reaction to Trump's ending of the Cuban Thaw. It's hard to notice outside of Florida, but economic crisis resulting from declining oil prices since 2008 brought a huge number of middle- and lower-class Venezuelans in addition to the influential anti-communist upper class that came earlier- speaking of oil, there are a lot of hispanics in industries reacting more and more to rising environmentalism.

Finally, post-first generation Hispanics are assimilating increasingly into white America, while their identities like everyone else's are being complicated with mixed-race heritage on top of the existing hispanic background more common than ever. An increasing number of hispanics are becoming Protestant, but Catholics too are going more Republican. I expect all these divisions to be recognized and exploited more as hispanics grow within the electorate, especially since they're in the swing states that will really matter to both parties, namely Texas.
Logged
mianfei
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 322
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: March 05, 2023, 06:11:29 AM »

I am inclined to say it is a mixture of #1 and #6.
This rightward shift makes more sense if you don't treat Hispanics as a monolith (which is a mistake many Democratic consultants and/or establishment Democratic politicians are making). For example, shortly after the 2020 election, an article appeared in Politico where the author explained that Republican gains in Southern Texas are mostly the result of increased turnout among Tejanos rather than Latinos — the former group refers to people whose families have already been in the US for many generations (and are thus more likely to consider themselves White instead of people of color), while the latter group refers to people who immigrated to the US within the last several generations (and are thus more likely to consider themselves people of color). Similar patterns exist elsewhere in the country — Hispanics whose families came to the US many generations ago are more likely to consider themselves White, and thus require different voter outreach approaches compared to Hispanics who immigrated to the US within the last several generations (and the Biden campaign really took Hispanics for granted, compared to Obama and Hillary).
Differences among Latinos were noticeable in 2020 — there was much less swing in the mountain counties of Brewster and Presidio (which of course have vastly more in common with New Mexico than with any other part of Texas) than in South Texas proper, or in such counties as Miami-Dade and Monroe in Florida, Yuma in Arizona, Clark in Nevada and Imperial in California.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,523
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: March 05, 2023, 02:04:56 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2023, 10:06:09 PM by Skill and Chance »

A combination of 1, 3 and 5.

1. Significant shy pro-life vote (ironic considering everyone assumed this would be the Midwestern WWC, but they are actually shy pro-choice)

3. Hispanic people were disproportionately made worse off by COVID restrictions, plus Bernie style rhetoric really turns Caribbean/South American immigrants off.  However, this is IMO fading as an issue as COVID is behind us and Bernie and his coalition have lost influence. 

5. Very underrated and increasing in importance as an issue.  They are disproportionately taking the brunt of the street crime in cities/counties that started looking the other way around 2020.
Logged
ملكة كرينجيتوك
khuzifenq
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,314
United States


P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: March 06, 2023, 06:32:58 PM »

A combination of 1, 3 and 5.

1. Significant shy pro-life vote (ironic considering everyone assumed this would be the Midwestern WWC, but they are actually shy pro-choice)

3. Hispanic people were disproportionately made worse off by COVID restrictions, plus Bernie style rhetoric really turns Caribbean/South American immigrants off.  However, this is IMO fading as an issue as COVID is behind us and Bernie and his coalition have lost influence. 

5. Very underrated and increasing in importance as an issue.  They are disproportionately taking the brunt of the street crime in cities/counties that started looking the other way around 2020.

Not familiar enough with the numbers to check this claim, but there's no Latino-specific equivalent to #stop(non-subcontinental)asianhate is there? Kind of validates the theory that groups which are more physically/culturally distinct from the socially dominant majority are more easily mobilized by the anti-"majoritarian group identity" coalition.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.063 seconds with 14 queries.