Wow, the author of “the emerging democratic majority” (2002) completely walks it back

[ElectionsGuy]

The sudden anti-meritocracy pivot from Dems since 2015 or so has really hurt with immigrant communities of all types. 

What I would like to hear more about is why the Dems all the sudden pivoted to saying "equity" over the past 2 years when before it was all about equality. The concept is supposed to be to aid the disabled and disadvantaged so they can be on equal footing (hence the infamous fence photo) but doesn't this imply equal outcomes? When you combine that with affirmative action, which screws over Asians the most, and how many liberal school districts are just getting rid of honors/advanced classes and getting rid of testing standards/requirements because of "inequity", it's quite disturbing.

Oh, and this isn't parody: math could be racist

[Indy Texas]

     "Coalition of the Ascendant" triumphalism was always an absurd pipe dream based in an ahistorical conceit that neither party would adapt or change with the political tides of the country. I had expected for a long time to see Latinos trend away from the Democratic Party, but I will admit that I am pleasantly surprised by how soon it is happening. I expected to wait until the late 2020s to see real movement occur.

Indeed. Imagine if in the early 1920s, people forecast a permanent Democratic majority based on the fact that a smaller and smaller share of Americans were British Isles-derived Protestants, and nobody else could possibly be interested in voting Republican.

[TheReckoning]

  Ummm…. isn’t there already a (potentially permanent) Democratic majority, and the only reason why Republicans haven’t been totally shut out yet is due to a coalition which allows them power despite being a minority?

     But that coalition is shrinking, to that point that it’s only a matter of time before it’s too small to override the majority anymore.

   

[OSR stands with Israel]

     "Coalition of the Ascendant" triumphalism was always an absurd pipe dream based in an ahistorical conceit that neither party would adapt or change with the political tides of the country. I had expected for a long time to see Latinos trend away from the Democratic Party, but I will admit that I am pleasantly surprised by how soon it is happening. I expected to wait until the late 2020s to see real movement occur.

Indeed. Imagine if in the early 1920s, people forecast a permanent Democratic majority based on the fact that a smaller and smaller share of Americans were British Isles-derived Protestants, and nobody else could possibly be interested in voting Republican.

Those people would ironically have been correct for the wrong reasons

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Hispanics haven't changed, they have consistently supported the working class party in US politics.

Sure. Attacking Paid Family Leave is so working class.....

Yes, actually. PFL is a policy that primarily benefits upper-income white-collar voters who do salaried work and whom taking time off is easy for, not hourly workers who don't. I hate "class" phrasing, but most lower-income voters also care more for bread and butter issues like wages, jobs, and prices than they do for big entitlement programs (bonus points for "free college" "paid family leave" and more!).

[Person Man]

Hispanics haven't changed, they have consistently supported the working class party in US politics.

Sure. Attacking Paid Family Leave is so working class.....

Yes, actually. PFL is a policy that primarily benefits upper-income white-collar voters who do salaried work and whom taking time off is easy for, not hourly workers who don't.

I don't know why that would be an issue unless you are getting overtime and even then, most of these schemes compensate you by your average earnings, not much you actually work.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Hispanics haven't changed, they have consistently supported the working class party in US politics.

Sure. Attacking Paid Family Leave is so working class.....

Yes, actually. PFL is a policy that primarily benefits upper-income white-collar voters who do salaried work and whom taking time off is easy for, not hourly workers who don't.

I don't know why that would be an issue unless you are getting overtime and even then, most of these schemes compensate you by your average earnings, not much you actually work.

Because if you work on a contractual basis and take time off for PFL, even if that PFL is still paid for, it can be hard to re-enter the workforce afterwards. If I work as a contractor on a labor crew, for instance, I may have a guaranteed place in that crew, but if I take months off they'll need a replacement and I may not have that place when I get back.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Who would’ve thought that hispanics are real people, and not single-issue voters? Most hispanics oppose leniency for illegal immigrants, and many are okay with legal immigration reduction.

It was always stupid to claim all not white people will forever vote together because of their shared identity of not being white.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Same doubly so for farmers/small businessman/farm workers etc who either run their own businesses and are held accountable by their balance sheets or who work on a seasonal basis and thus can't just miss the summer season and then return to work in the winter season.

(though all of this to some extent ignores that not all Latinos are "working class" and even those that are work in a wide variety of different professions. But PFL is ironically definitely a policy that helps upper-income voters a lot more than lower-income voters.)

[EastwoodS]

  Ummm…. isn’t there already a (potentially permanent) Democratic majority, and the only reason why Republicans haven’t been totally shut out yet is due to a coalition which allows them power despite being a minority?

     But that coalition is shrinking, to that point that it’s only a matter of time before it’s too small to override the majority anymore.

   

Who are you trying to appease on here with these type of statements?

[BG-NY]

Who are you trying to appease on here with these type of statements?

Something like 3% of republicans in reality voted for Trump. On Atlas the figure is at least 30%. Totally somebody’s prerogative, but it’s not representative at all (and in some cases probably is concern trolling).

[jojoju1998]

Same doubly so for farmers/small businessman/farm workers etc who either run their own businesses and are held accountable by their balance sheets or who work on a seasonal basis and thus can't just miss the summer season and then return to work in the winter season.

(though all of this to some extent ignores that not all Latinos are "working class" and even those that are work in a wide variety of different professions. But PFL is ironically definitely a policy that helps upper-income voters a lot more than lower-income voters.)

My Dad is a working class machinist and when he had to take 3 months off for his heart bypass, California’s paid family leave program helped our family through those 3 months.

[Skill and Chance]

Same doubly so for farmers/small businessman/farm workers etc who either run their own businesses and are held accountable by their balance sheets or who work on a seasonal basis and thus can't just miss the summer season and then return to work in the winter season.

(though all of this to some extent ignores that not all Latinos are "working class" and even those that are work in a wide variety of different professions. But PFL is ironically definitely a policy that helps upper-income voters a lot more than lower-income voters.)

My Dad is a working class machinist and when he had to take 3 months off for his heart bypass, California’s paid family leave program helped our family through those 3 months.

Yes, I think this is one of the few things Dems are currently focusing on that actually helps the working class.  It's true that it basically excludes small business owners, though.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I read some sort of religious survey the other day--I think it was from PRRI--that had Hispanic Catholics as to the left of white Catholics (and often even white mainline Protestants) across most issue areas, but somewhat more susceptible to conspiracy theories (including QAnon but not limited to it) and significantly more hostile to the Lockdowns And Mandates For All style of pandemic response. And of course Hispanic Evangelicals are more closely aligned with white Evangelicals on those topics than they are with non-Evangelicals of any race. That sort of thing, plus generally lackluster Democratic messaging that even on race relations seems geared more towards Susan from the PTA than towards Susanna from the nail salon, explains the Hispanic shift quite nicely without needing to resort to weird noble-savage assertions about muh machismo or flip-the-script insistences that acktschyewally most Hispanics are right-wing on immigration and entitlements.

[jojoju1998]

Same doubly so for farmers/small businessman/farm workers etc who either run their own businesses and are held accountable by their balance sheets or who work on a seasonal basis and thus can't just miss the summer season and then return to work in the winter season.

(though all of this to some extent ignores that not all Latinos are "working class" and even those that are work in a wide variety of different professions. But PFL is ironically definitely a policy that helps upper-income voters a lot more than lower-income voters.)

My Dad is a working class machinist and when he had to take 3 months off for his heart bypass, California’s paid family leave program helped our family through those 3 months.

Yes, I think this is one of the few things Dems are currently focusing on that actually helps the working class.  It's true that it basically excludes small business owners, though.

If we made it a national payroll style program like we do social security, Then hopefully small business owners can benefit from it.

[jojoju1998]

Hispanics haven't changed, they have consistently supported the working class party in US politics.

Sure. Attacking Paid Family Leave is so working class.....

Yes, actually. PFL is a policy that primarily benefits upper-income white-collar voters who do salaried work and whom taking time off is easy for, not hourly workers who don't. I hate "class" phrasing, but most lower-income voters also care more for bread and butter issues like wages, jobs, and prices than they do for big entitlement programs (bonus points for "free college" "paid family leave" and more!).

And. And . Most white collar workers who are upper middle income already have paid leave. Companies like Netflix for example offer a 1 year of leave for Parents. And short term disability for medical reasons.

Having a national program therefore would help blue collars workers more.

[Pericles]

Who would’ve thought that hispanics are real people, and not single-issue voters? Most hispanics oppose leniency for illegal immigrants, and many are okay with legal immigration reduction.

They don't like very much the idea of defunding police, either, I've heard.

Who does?

[Big Abraham]

Hispanics haven't changed, they have consistently supported the working class party in US politics.

Sure. Attacking Paid Family Leave is so working class.....

Republicans at this point talk about the actual working class. Sure, it's all just rhetorical posturing, but at least they do mention them, more often than do Democrats at this point. The WWC has  already shifted over to the Republicans in droves and now Latinos are starting to do the same. Soon all the Democrats will have left is the black vote and UMC white/Asian coastal suburbanite liberals. If the Democrats think they are the "party of the working class," well then... act like it goddamnit!

[jojoju1998]

Hispanics haven't changed, they have consistently supported the working class party in US politics.

Sure. Attacking Paid Family Leave is so working class.....

Republicans at this point talk about the actual working class. Sure, it's all just rhetorical posturing, but at least they do mention them, more often than do Democrats at this point. The WWC has  already shifted over to the Republicans in droves and now Latinos are starting to do the same. Soon all the Democrats will have left is the black vote and UMC white/Asian coastal suburbanite liberals. If the Democrats think they are the "party of the working class," well then... act like it goddamnit!

Biden's entire message in the 2020 election was Build back better. Was it effective ? No. But at least he tried to do it. He also talked about rewarding work not wealth. Green Union Jobs.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I read some sort of religious survey the other day--I think it was from PRRI--that had Hispanic Catholics as to the left of white Catholics (and often even white mainline Protestants) across most issue areas, but somewhat more susceptible to conspiracy theories (including QAnon but not limited to it) and significantly more hostile to the Lockdowns And Mandates For All style of pandemic response. And of course Hispanic Evangelicals are more closely aligned with white Evangelicals on those topics than they are with non-Evangelicals of any race. That sort of thing, plus generally lackluster Democratic messaging that even on race relations seems geared more towards Susan from the PTA than towards Susanna from the nail salon, explains the Hispanic shift quite nicely without needing to resort to weird noble-savage assertions about muh machismo or flip-the-script insistences that acktschyewally most Hispanics are right-wing on immigration and entitlements.

I had suspected that Trump’s increased support among minorities in 2020 had a lot to do with conspiracy theories and apocalyptic religious fervor in the context of the pandemic and unpopular lockdowns. It makes perfect sense, and it’s also no surprise that a lot of these people were new voters (hence, Trump benefiting in raw numbers from increased turnout, though not in margin of course). 

Oh, and we can’t forget the stimulus checks with Trump’s name printed on them, just to make sure that recipients knew who gave them money.

[Indy Texas]

I read some sort of religious survey the other day--I think it was from PRRI--that had Hispanic Catholics as to the left of white Catholics (and often even white mainline Protestants) across most issue areas, but somewhat more susceptible to conspiracy theories (including QAnon but not limited to it) and significantly more hostile to the Lockdowns And Mandates For All style of pandemic response. And of course Hispanic Evangelicals are more closely aligned with white Evangelicals on those topics than they are with non-Evangelicals of any race. That sort of thing, plus generally lackluster Democratic messaging that even on race relations seems geared more towards Susan from the PTA than towards Susanna from the nail salon, explains the Hispanic shift quite nicely without needing to resort to weird noble-savage assertions about muh machismo or flip-the-script insistences that acktschyewally most Hispanics are right-wing on immigration and entitlements.

They lost her too—see the Virginia gubernatorial election.

Democratic messaging is geared toward Susan the Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Coordinator at whatever the nearest four-year university or Fortune 500 company is.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I read some sort of religious survey the other day--I think it was from PRRI--that had Hispanic Catholics as to the left of white Catholics (and often even white mainline Protestants) across most issue areas, but somewhat more susceptible to conspiracy theories (including QAnon but not limited to it) and significantly more hostile to the Lockdowns And Mandates For All style of pandemic response. And of course Hispanic Evangelicals are more closely aligned with white Evangelicals on those topics than they are with non-Evangelicals of any race. That sort of thing, plus generally lackluster Democratic messaging that even on race relations seems geared more towards Susan from the PTA than towards Susanna from the nail salon, explains the Hispanic shift quite nicely without needing to resort to weird noble-savage assertions about muh machismo or flip-the-script insistences that acktschyewally most Hispanics are right-wing on immigration and entitlements.

I had suspected that Trump’s increased support among minorities in 2020 had a lot to do with conspiracy theories and apocalyptic religious fervor in the context of the pandemic and unpopular lockdowns. It makes perfect sense, and it’s also no surprise that a lot of these people were new voters (hence, Trump benefiting in raw numbers from increased turnout, though not in margin of course). 

Oh, and we can’t forget the stimulus checks with Trump’s name printed on them, just to make sure that recipients knew who gave them money.

This is a somewhat snide way to put it, but I agree. The COVID policies that kept middle-class white boomers relatively safe a year and a half ago pushed a lot of working-class Hispanics deeper into the pit financially and cut them off from social support to an unusual extent given the sh**tty internet penetration in many heavily Hispanic places. Trump’s messaging, even the wackier stuff, spoke unusually well to that particular experience of the pandemic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Texeira has been taking a critical look back at his previous work since at least as far back as 2016. Say what you want about the guy, but he's clearly intelligent and humble enough to change his mind in the face of new data. It would have been nice if all proponents of TEDM were so reflective, of course.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I read some sort of religious survey the other day--I think it was from PRRI--that had Hispanic Catholics as to the left of white Catholics (and often even white mainline Protestants) across most issue areas, but somewhat more susceptible to conspiracy theories (including QAnon but not limited to it) and significantly more hostile to the Lockdowns And Mandates For All style of pandemic response. And of course Hispanic Evangelicals are more closely aligned with white Evangelicals on those topics than they are with non-Evangelicals of any race. That sort of thing, plus generally lackluster Democratic messaging that even on race relations seems geared more towards Susan from the PTA than towards Susanna from the nail salon, explains the Hispanic shift quite nicely without needing to resort to weird noble-savage assertions about muh machismo or flip-the-script insistences that acktschyewally most Hispanics are right-wing on immigration and entitlements.

I had suspected that Trump’s increased support among minorities in 2020 had a lot to do with conspiracy theories and apocalyptic religious fervor in the context of the pandemic and unpopular lockdowns. It makes perfect sense, and it’s also no surprise that a lot of these people were new voters (hence, Trump benefiting in raw numbers from increased turnout, though not in margin of course).  

Oh, and we can’t forget the stimulus checks with Trump’s name printed on them, just to make sure that recipients knew who gave them money.

This is a somewhat snide way to put it, but I agree. The COVID policies that kept middle-class white boomers relatively safe a year and a half ago pushed a lot of working-class Hispanics deeper into the pit financially and cut them off from social support to an unusual extent given the sh**tty internet penetration in many heavily Hispanic places. Trump’s messaging, even the wackier stuff, spoke unusually well to that particular experience of the pandemic.

Yeah, sorry for any snideness. I am of course pretty cynical about politics across the board these days, and that sadly includes many voters (“on all sides, on all sides” - Trump).

And there absolutely are misinformation/disinformation campaigns specifically targeting minorities as their audience. I wouldn’t underestimate their impact just as I wouldn’t underestimate the impact of FOX pundits and talk radio on older white conservatives (or MSNBC’s own partisan crusades on older white liberals, for that matter). Or Joe Rogan on low-information younger Dudes, and so on.

Conspiracy theorists aren’t merely grifters; they are an unavoidable part of the Marketplace of Ideas (TM), and in Great Current Year 2021, there’s a deranged fanatic for every demographic and market niche.

[Indy Texas]

It doesn't help that the loudest voices driving messaging for the Democrats tend to be the kind of people who came from comfortable families but have a lower standard of living than their parents because they borrowed a bunch of money for college and then pursued low-paying media/nonprofit jobs in high cost areas like DC/NYC.

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1469031915768279045?s=20