Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1591915427977904128

He held one of his only rallies of the cycle in Long Beach of all places, rallying for Prop 1. I believe he also did some photo-ops with Asif Mahmood. Both of those were a week ago. I think that was the extent of his local campaigning.

Between that and his non-presidential campaign, he dropped the ball hard when it came to campaigning for fellow CA Dems

[NOVA Green]

Well damn. This one hurts!

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1591919730029629440

Trust me... if this ends up being the final result, I will likely be left with a Congressional REP much much less responsive on constituent services than DeFazio, and most likely less responsive on potential future constituent services than Schrader, whose office never got back to me when I contacted them multiple times post redistricting explaining that I would be in the new CD-05 district and would remember his vote in the upcoming DEM primary if he did not support several key Biden administration initiatives being voted on in both the house and Senate.

[2016]

Donald Trump will not be the GOP Nominee in 2024: Reason, the State Parties will stop him. They will likely open up their Primaries & Caucuses to Independents. DeSantis won Indies in FL 53-45.

Trumps favorables with Independents are in the Toilet.

Trump will get double crossed from multiple Sides. Moderate Republicans like Brian Fitzpatrick might even coax Garland to charge Trump so the Republican Party can get rid of him.

[bagelman]

I put all the results we know about into https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/ including OR-5 and AK and it gives me GOP 92% of House control with most projections having at least 225 seats. A very slight overestimation due to an unexpected R trend in NY-19 and VA-2.

It's so ironic how the special elections turned out to be right in regards to a neutral year and clearly showing a sign that this was not going to be a 2010/14 style midterm of doom, but NY-19 was probably the second most prominent of these specials besides AK and it flipped back.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, it always seemed weird to me that Newsom didn't even try. I get he was always going to win, but he could've at least attempted to campaign for downballot reasons. I know he did campaign with a few and send some of the competitive CDs money, but he could've done a lot, lot more.

[TheReckoning]

Donald Trump will not be the GOP Nominee in 2024: Reason, the State Parties will stop him. They will likely open up their Primaries & Caucuses to Independents. DeSantis won Indies in FL 53-45.

Trumps favorables with Independents are in the Toilet.

Trump will get double crossed from multiple Sides. Moderate Republicans like Brian Fitzpatrick might even coax Garland to charge Trump so the Republican Party can get rid of him.

LOL!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I put all the results we know about into https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/ including OR-5 and AK and it gives me GOP 92% of House control with most projections having at least 225 seats. A very slight overestimation due to an unexpected R trend in NY-19 and VA-2.

It's so ironic how the special elections turned out to be right in regards to a neutral year and clearly showing a sign that this was not going to be a 2010/14 style midterm of doom, but NY-19 was probably the second most prominent of these specials besides AK and it flipped back.

Wasn't the NY-19 special under the old district lines?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1591941285757452288?s=20&t=4u-uqQIMr9pusrrFL...

[Torie]

Well while that latest tranche in AZ-06 may not have been a fatal blow to the Engel, she is about to be moved into intensive care. Why? Because while the Pinal dump was linear to what was before, Pima was not. She actually lost the latest Pima tranche (the remote precinct phenomenon ala Maricopa?). Spreadsheets are your friend. The Pub increased his projected margin using a linear extrapolation by another 1,000 votes or so.

[John Dule]

Yeah, it always seemed weird to me that Newsom didn't even try. I get he was always going to win, but he could've at least attempted to campaign for downballot reasons. I know he did campaign with a few and send some of the competitive CDs money, but he could've done a lot, lot more.

Newsom has never been politically apt, and the Democrats should nominate someone like Shapiro or Polis if they're so hell-bent on picking a governor for their next nominee. A safe blue state Democrat like Newsom has never had to work a day in his life to win an election, and campaigning does not come naturally to him.

[Roll Roons]

I put all the results we know about into https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/ including OR-5 and AK and it gives me GOP 92% of House control with most projections having at least 225 seats. A very slight overestimation due to an unexpected R trend in NY-19 and VA-2.

It's so ironic how the special elections turned out to be right in regards to a neutral year and clearly showing a sign that this was not going to be a 2010/14 style midterm of doom, but NY-19 was probably the second most prominent of these specials besides AK and it flipped back.

Wasn't the NY-19 special under the old district lines?

Yes, and it's interesting because the new NY-19 is a couple points more Democratic than the old one.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Trump will have a fair amount of candidates that will be free to campaign with him the next two years if he announces his VP pick early in the process.

Which part of the Spectrum do you think Trump would pick: Keri Lake... Josh Hawley ... Nikki Haley (not necessarily Haley.. who may not even be willing to accept- but someone on that part of the R Spectrum)?

I firmly believe the most likely pick is Kristi Noem. She was adamantly against any meaningful Covid precautions and she's a reliable election denier, plus she doesn't seem to care much for ethics laws. It's a match made in hell.

I was thinking she was a possibility also- although i think Hawley may be just ahead if hear in the horse race in Trumps head. esp since Jarrett and Ivanka has signaled they do jot want an active part in Trump 2.0 ... I could see Trump thinking he needs a Young VP pick. (His hesitation with Hawley could be Hawley sort of  lack of natural Charisma in front of a crowd - but Trump may think he ticks that box enough himself.

Trump is superficial enough that I think the clip of Hawley fleeing through the Capitol would be nearly disqualifying for him.

[2016]

Kevin McCarthy needs to immediatedly be primaried in his Home State. Reason: He picked up the Phone and spoke with the President and that is prohibited from my Point of View if you are the Republican Leader no matter if you are in the Minority or Majority.

# Don't Speak with the President

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, it always seemed weird to me that Newsom didn't even try. I get he was always going to win, but he could've at least attempted to campaign for downballot reasons. I know he did campaign with a few and send some of the competitive CDs money, but he could've done a lot, lot more.

Newsom has never been politically apt, and the Democrats should nominate someone like Shapiro or Polis if they're so hell-bent on picking a governor for their next nominee. A safe blue state Democrat like Newsom has never had to work a day in his life to win an election, and campaigning does not come naturally to him.

I mean, he campaigned like hell for the recall. But it goes with saying that he only did that because he was personally threatened. Imagine if he campaigned that hard this year...

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, it always seemed weird to me that Newsom didn't even try. I get he was always going to win, but he could've at least attempted to campaign for downballot reasons. I know he did campaign with a few and send some of the competitive CDs money, but he could've done a lot, lot more.

Newsom has never been politically apt, and the Democrats should nominate someone like Shapiro or Polis if they're so hell-bent on picking a governor for their next nominee. A safe blue state Democrat like Newsom has never had to work a day in his life to win an election, and campaigning does not come naturally to him.

It is starting to appear that fear of Larry Elder probably propelled his significant recall win more than any affirmative attribute of his.

[wbrocks67]

The Sinema stuff is interesting. I'm not sure if she would even be that much of a help, given she's a bit more ~polarized~ now, but it is pretty striking how she didn't even try and lift a finger for anyone this go around. At least in 2020, she cut a TV ad for Kelly.

This ad was great -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0M8szaBnvc

I actually really liked Sinema. She really made a turn post-Nov 2020

[Хahar 🤔]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1591915427977904128

I dislike Gavin Newsom as much as the next guy, but I find this framing unreasonable. Reasons:

1. Nothing is in from California yet. When morons like Wasserman make sweeping judgements about swings from 2020 to the current results, this is because they are morons.

2. One would expect a failing on the part of Democrats to involve losing seats. Democrats were on offense in California during this cycle, as usual. Right now the only seat where Democrats are not favored where you can reasonably say that they should have won is the Antelope Valley seat, and that's because that one is in the death grip of a terrible Democratic candidate. Christy Smith being bad at politics is awfully weak tea from which to concoct a denunciation of the California Democratic Party. I haven't paid terribly close attention to the state legislative results (again, because looking at results at this point is akin to haruspicy), but my understanding is that Democrats are set to gain again in both houses. This was a good election night for California Democrats, as is every election night.

3. You can't run the same campaign every time. Voters remember how overwhelmingly the recall effort last year was rejected. That was just a year ago! Acting like Republicans represented an existential threat to California society once again would be insulting to voters' intelligence. I'm glad we didn't get a barrage of ads about radical right-wing Brian Dahle, someone most California voters have never heard of.

Suffice it to say that I disagree for the most part with everything else that has been said about Gavin Newsom over the last page.

[MillennialModerate]

Kevin McCarthy needs to immediatedly be primaried in his Home State. Reason: He picked up the Phone and spoke with the President and that is prohibited from my Point of View if you are the Republican Leader no matter if you are in the Minority or Majority.

# Don't Speak with the President

Wtf???

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I put all the results we know about into https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/ including OR-5 and AK and it gives me GOP 92% of House control with most projections having at least 225 seats. A very slight overestimation due to an unexpected R trend in NY-19 and VA-2.

It's so ironic how the special elections turned out to be right in regards to a neutral year and clearly showing a sign that this was not going to be a 2010/14 style midterm of doom, but NY-19 was probably the second most prominent of these specials besides AK and it flipped back.

I did that, and giving Salas the win in CA-22 gives Rs a 94% chance while giving it to Valadao gives them a 91% chance.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1591915427977904128

I dislike Gavin Newsom as much as the next guy, but I find this framing unreasonable. Reasons:

1. Nothing is in from California yet. When morons like Wasserman make sweeping judgements about swings from 2020 to the current results, this is because they are morons.

2. One would expect a failing on the part of Democrats to involve losing seats. Democrats were on offense in California during this cycle, as usual. Right now the only seat where Democrats are not favored where you can reasonably say that they should have won is the Antelope Valley seat, and that's because that one is in the death grip of a terrible Democratic candidate. Christy Smith being bad at politics is awfully weak tea from which to concoct a denunciation of the California Democratic Party. I haven't paid terribly close attention to the state legislative results (again, because looking at results at this point is akin to haruspicy), but my understanding is that Democrats are set to gain again in both houses. This was a good election night for California Democrats, as is every election night.

3. You can't run the same campaign every time. Voters remember how overwhelmingly the recall effort last year was rejected. That was just a year ago! Acting like Republicans represented an existential threat to California society once again would be insulting to voters' intelligence. I'm glad we didn't get a barrage of ads about radical right-wing Brian Dahle, someone most California voters have never heard of.

Suffice it to say that I disagree for the most part with everything else that has been said about Gavin Newsom over the last page.

Thanks for posting this.

[Pollster]

Kevin McCarthy needs to immediatedly be primaried in his Home State. Reason: He picked up the Phone and spoke with the President and that is prohibited from my Point of View if you are the Republican Leader no matter if you are in the Minority or Majority.

# Don't Speak with the President

Your writers have outdone themselves.

[Horus]

Kevin McCarthy needs to immediatedly be primaried in his Home State. Reason: He picked up the Phone and spoke with the President and that is prohibited from my Point of View if you are the Republican Leader no matter if you are in the Minority or Majority.

# Don't Speak with the President

Why?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kevin McCarthy needs to immediatedly be primaried in his Home State. Reason: He picked up the Phone and spoke with the President and that is prohibited from my Point of View if you are the Republican Leader no matter if you are in the Minority or Majority.

# Don't Speak with the President

You think leaders of the legislative branch shouldn't talk to the leader of the executive branch?

[Unelectable Bystander]

I put all the results we know about into https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/ including OR-5 and AK and it gives me GOP 92% of House control with most projections having at least 225 seats. A very slight overestimation due to an unexpected R trend in NY-19 and VA-2.

It's so ironic how the special elections turned out to be right in regards to a neutral year and clearly showing a sign that this was not going to be a 2010/14 style midterm of doom, but NY-19 was probably the second most prominent of these specials besides AK and it flipped back.

It’s very ironic, and it wasn’t just NY-19. NY-22 was a good result for R’s along with NE-1 and MN-1. All of those results were nothing like the specials. In fact, I remember democrats explicitly saying that Molinaro was DOA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kevin McCarthy needs to immediatedly be primaried in his Home State. Reason: He picked up the Phone and spoke with the President and that is prohibited from my Point of View if you are the Republican Leader no matter if you are in the Minority or Majority.

# Don't Speak with the President

Your writers have outdone themselves.

I think his last patch update was buggy.