Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Aurelius]

From what I've heard from people in the district, Smith was an asshole who was difficult to work with. Her campaigning skills were also pretty bad. This guy had a great write-up on why Smith was such a disaster. Aside from the military service gaffe, she had fairly poor connections and fundraising aside from the DCCC.

https://twitter.com/ChristySmithCA/status/1217820375494512646
I would argue that this tweet she made was the "cancelled fireworks" of the 2020 cycle. For context, this was her take on the Sanders/Warren spat of 2020. Basically saying Bernie Sanders had no character or class and insulting his supporters. I'm probably the only one that remembers it, and I doubt it even affected the 333 votes she lost by. But it's worth bringing up because it shows her mindset. Christy Smith had attacked anyone and everyone who did not agree with her, and had acted entitled to her voters' votes.

Even in her concession, she comes off like an asshole. She blamed Katie Hill and attacked her for no reason for "refusing to leave the public eye". She blamed the DCCC and activists for not investing in her campaign, like she didn't throw the last two chances she had. She blamed some idiot who nobody heard or cared about and got 5% of the vote for forcing her to run in a primary. To Smith, it's everyone else's fault that she lost but her own.

Couple that with awful campaign skills and adherence to COVID guidelines over actual campaigning and you have a recipe for two disaster cycles. With her as the nominee again, it's no wonder Democrats triaged the seat and invested in other local candidates.

So in a nutshell she sounds like a typical self-absorbed Angelite.

Some day politicians will learn to stop insulting military service. Didn't work for Trump against McCain, didn't work for Smith against Garcia. Even dumber than insulting the voters in general, which politicians sometimes manage to survive.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Smith has really lost CA-27, and both AZ-01 and AZ-06 are R favored, I may have to revise my new prediction to 220-215 (was 219-216)

IDK, AZ-01 is a true tossup but I feel like Engel may actually slightly pull this out, given what's left is mostly Pima.

Ciscomani should net another few thousand between Cochise and Pinal. It’ll be very close

[It’s so Joever]

Gosh I wish Katie Hill didn’t resign. Truly sickening how the mainstream media smeared her. Matt Gaetz was never forced to resign, and yet this wonderful future leader was stabbed in the back by her virtue signaling colleagues.

[Aurelius]

The fact that Smith is conceding so early makes me wonder if the late ballots will be better for Kim and Calvert than I'd assumed. Yeah I know, different counties, but still.

[Ferguson97]

I’m thinking we’re headed for 220R to 215D

Rs win CA-27, CA-45, CA-41, CA-03, CO-03, NY-22, AZ-01, AZ-06, OR-05

Ds win OR-06, CA-13, CA-22, CA-47, and CA-49

I'm bullish on AZ-06, so I think it's 219R at worst.

[Nerd]

If Smith has really lost CA-27, and both AZ-01 and AZ-06 are R favored, I may have to revise my new prediction to 220-215 (was 219-216)

Not really clear how AZ-6 is R favored (50k Pima out and much fewer Pinal with 1.3k lead).  219-216 is modal with CA-41 very much up in the air.  AZ-1, CA-27 would have to be D for the majority.

[Spectator]

I’m thinking we’re headed for 220R to 215D

Rs win CA-27, CA-45, CA-41, CA-03, CO-03, NY-22, AZ-01, AZ-06, OR-05

Ds win OR-06, CA-13, CA-22, CA-47, and CA-49

I think 219-216 still. The Pima batches are super blue and I think Ciscomani is on thin ice.

[Torie]

As to AZ-01, based on the Trump 2020 numbers, there really is a Pub skew here in the uncounted ballots if you look carefully, and it is somewhat significant.

No one is disputing that.  The question is how much Schweikert will net.  On paper Hodge should already be out of this, but he’s beaten the odds so far.  Either Schweikert will take the lead or Hodge will narrowly hang on once every vote has been counted.  Those are the only ways this ends (there could be a recount as well, I suppose).  

Yes, while if my life depended on guessing who wins correctly, I'd rather pick the R in AZ-06 by a hair, in AZ-01,  based on what I know, I honestly would have to flip a coin. The chart is based on the tranche being 54-46 R per a tweet (was it a tad more or a tad less?), and assumes the partisan coloration of the final tranches are the same as the last tranche. And then is the number to count 30,000 or 35,000 or something in between. And how many Dem leaning provisionals are bouncing around out there?  That is why those who are confidently predicting some final number of R's and D's without a detailed explanation have zero cred with me. They are basically attention whore BS artists.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Smith has really lost CA-27, and both AZ-01 and AZ-06 are R favored, I may have to revise my new prediction to 220-215 (was 219-216)

Not really clear how AZ-6 is R favored (50k Pima out and much fewer Pinal with 1.3k lead).  219-216 is modal with CA-41 very much up in the air.  AZ-1, CA-27 would have to be D for the majority.

Right now Ciscomani is up over 1k. Cochise should net him a bit over 3k and Pinal another k. That’s 6k she has to make up with the remaining Pima ballots, and it’s unclear how those will break. Right now she’s up 54-45 in the Pima portion but she’ll need a slightly stronger final break to make up a 6k deficit

This ofc assumes thing breaks as they have been breaking, but that’s not necessarily going to be the case

[Aurelius]

From what I've heard from people in the district, Smith was an asshole who was difficult to work with. Her campaigning skills were also pretty bad. This guy had a great write-up on why Smith was such a disaster. Aside from the military service gaffe, she had fairly poor connections and fundraising aside from the DCCC.

https://twitter.com/ChristySmithCA/status/1217820375494512646
I would argue that this tweet she made was the "cancelled fireworks" of the 2020 cycle. For context, this was her take on the Sanders/Warren spat of 2020. Basically saying Bernie Sanders had no character or class and insulting his supporters. I'm probably the only one that remembers it, and I doubt it even affected the 333 votes she lost by. But it's worth bringing up because it shows her mindset. Christy Smith had attacked anyone and everyone who did not agree with her, and had acted entitled to her voters' votes.

Even in her concession, she comes off like an asshole. She blamed Katie Hill and attacked her for no reason for "refusing to leave the public eye". She blamed the DCCC and activists for not investing in her campaign, like she didn't throw the last two chances she had. She blamed some idiot who nobody heard or cared about and got 5% of the vote for forcing her to run in a primary. To Smith, it's everyone else's fault that she lost but her own.

Couple that with awful campaign skills and adherence to COVID guidelines over actual campaigning and you have a recipe for two disaster cycles. With her as the nominee again, it's no wonder Democrats triaged the seat and invested in other local candidates.

So in a nutshell she sounds like a typical self-absorbed Angelite.

Only to the extent that Santa Clarita can be considered LA.

Chatsworth is LA and Chatsworth is Santa Clarita South.

[President Johnson]

I’m thinking we’re headed for 220R to 215D

Rs win CA-27, CA-45, CA-41, CA-03, CO-03, NY-22, AZ-01, AZ-06, OR-05

Ds win OR-06, CA-13, CA-22, CA-47, and CA-49

I'm bullish on AZ-06, so I think it's 219R at worst.

One way or the other, it's really stunning how this kinda disappoints me now, although a Democratic hold of the senate was considered a huge success ahead of the election. Let alone just losing Sisolak while Hobbs is favored to win the Arizona governorship.

I hope Democrats can regain a majority at least through special elections before 2024 even rolls around.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Gosh I wish Katie Hill didn’t resign. Truly sickening how the mainstream media smeared her. Matt Gaetz was never forced to resign, and yet this wonderful future leader was stabbed in the back by her virtue signaling colleagues.

But it's okay. When the GOP goes low, Democrats go high!

god ing kill me

[Joe Republic]

God he just looks so creepy. Is that woman in the background even his wife? Ma'am, blink three times if you need help.

And now a reference from the 90s:

[wbrocks67]

On one hand, it will obviously be very disappointing if Dems only end up losing the House by a seat or two, given the NY debacle (and stuff like MI-10)

But then again, there were also quite a few races that went our way that really weren't expected to by most (WA-03, NM-02, CO-08, PA-07 etc.)

[Kamala's side hoe]

The fact that Smith is conceding so early makes me wonder if the late ballots will be better for Kim and Calvert than I'd assumed. Yeah I know, different counties, but still.

Young Kim won CA-40 a few days ago. I’m still confident Jay Chen will outperform Christy Smith but probably not by enough to flip the seat.

I was surprised at how R the early returns were among the competitive/R-leaning SoCal races

[wbrocks67]

That Blake Masters photo keeps reminding me of the Smile movie poster too

[Tekken_Guy]

The fact that Smith is conceding so early makes me wonder if the late ballots will be better for Kim and Calvert than I'd assumed. Yeah I know, different counties, but still.

Young Kim won CA-40 a few days ago. I’m still confident Jay Chen will outperform Christy Smith but probably not by enough to flip the seat.

Is there a possibility Valadao olds on?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I expect Ds to win the H with 230 Seats or more in 24 Sherrod Brown even though Ryan lost said it's not gonna be a red wave if inflation improves by Nov 23/24 which it will it won't be 7% we can win both Houses of Congress Biden Approvals were underrated, no Prez at 44% tied both H and S in a midterm, Trump was at 46 and lost 33 seats in H

[ProgressiveModerate]

The fact that Smith is conceding so early makes me wonder if the late ballots will be better for Kim and Calvert than I'd assumed. Yeah I know, different counties, but still.

Young Kim won CA-40 a few days ago. I’m still confident Jay Chen will outperform Christy Smith but probably not by enough to flip the seat.

Is there a possibility Valadao olds on?

Yes, but I’d much rather be Salas. Almost all the oustanding vote is in Kern, Salas is getting what he needs so far. Also while Valadao outperformed by 14 in Kings County in a Biden + 13 seat, that is his literal base so it probably isn’t what he wants

[Alben Barkley]

Remember that same-sex marriage bill that passed the House with a surprising amount of GOP support, but was then delayed in the Senate until after the election? Will it pass now?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Oh well, whatever. If the GOP takes the House, it will suck but it will be a thin majority.

NY Dems should be ashamed.

[DrScholl]

Blake Masters should have asked Kari Lake for advice on filters since she uses them a lot. Of course hers is pretty ridiculous so perhaps that advice wouldn't have helped.

[Nerd]

About 22% of Pinal is in AZ-6 with 18k remaining or 4k ballots.  Ciscomani has won the last batch by 9%.  That's about 400 net votes.

82% of Cochise is in AZ-6 with 8k remaining or 6.5k ballots.  Ciscomani has won the last batch by 31%.  That's about 2k net votes.

67% of Cochise is in AZ-6 with 54k remaining or 36k ballots.  Engel has won the last batch by 12%.  That's about 4.3k net votes.

Result is 4.3k - 2.4k - 1.4k = Engel + 500

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I thought Cochise was done reporting??

[SCNCmod]

Trump will have a fair amount of candidates that will be free to campaign with him the next two years if he announces his VP pick early in the process.

Which part of the Spectrum do you think Trump would pick: Keri Lake... Josh Hawley ... Nikki Haley (not necessarily Haley.. who may not even be willing to accept- but someone on that part of the R Spectrum)?