Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[John Dule]

By my count, the Republicans will need at least five and probably six districts in California to get their House majority. I believe they have the edge in seven-- 03, 13, 22, 23, 27, 40, and 45. I think the Democrats will have to win at least one and probably two of these to hold the House, which I don't think is plausible. They could probably pull out a win in CA-13, but after that, which of these could they reasonably win? I just don't see it happening. This isn't even mentioning the fact that Katie Porter is currently threatened in CA-47, which (if it flips) would make eight districts they have the lead in.

Funny how back in 2016 Republicans were saying "Trump won the popular vote if you exclude California," and now they need us for their majority.

[wbrocks67]

It's like 2020 all over again in Philly now haha

Philly dumps another 4.4K election day ballots. Fetterman 4.1K, Oz 300

[Holmes]

Election day-voting where you drop in a ballot box isn't heavily D or even D at all
election day drop off shouldn't be any skewed.
If these are from early votes - that's heavily skewed to D

depends on where the ballots came from.
if they all came from Vegas, CCM has a chance.

FWIW
Laxalt won election day drop box in Washoe by 10k

This is false. Election day drop box in Washoe has not been tallied - Republicans had a very slight registration lead in the ~18.5K ballots that were dropped off.

Tell him, NoVA.

[wbrocks67]

By my count, the Republicans will need at least five and probably six districts in California to get their House majority. I believe they have the edge in seven-- 03, 13, 22, 23, 27, 40, and 45. I think the Democrats will have to win at least one and probably two of these to hold the House, which I just don't see happening. They could probably pull out a win in CA-13, but after that, which of these could they reasonably win? I just don't see it happening. This isn't even mentioning the fact that Katie Porter is currently threatened in CA-47, which (if it flips) would make eight districts they have the lead in.

Funny how back in 2016 Republicans were saying "Trump won the popular vote if you exclude California," and now they need us for their majority.

Given the typical CA reporting, CA-47 and CA-49 are probably at their low points right now

[lfromnj]

By my count, the Republicans will need at least five and probably six districts in California to get their House majority. I believe they have the edge in seven-- 03, 13, 22, 23, 27, 40, and 45. I think the Democrats will have to win at least one and probably two of these to hold the House, which I don't think is plausible. They could probably pull out a win in CA-13, but after that, which of these could they reasonably win? I just don't see it happening. This isn't even mentioning the fact that Katie Porter is currently threatened in CA-47, which (if it flips) would make eight districts they have the lead in.

Funny how back in 2016 Republicans were saying "Trump won the popular vote if you exclude California," and now they need us for their majority.

Did you forgot ca01?

[UncleSam]

Funny how back in 2016 Republicans were saying "Trump won the popular vote if you exclude California," and now they need us for their majority.

In fairness to that (really bad) take, Rs definitely won a majority last night if you exclude CA 😂

[John Dule]

By my count, the Republicans will need at least five and probably six districts in California to get their House majority. I believe they have the edge in seven-- 03, 13, 22, 23, 27, 40, and 45. I think the Democrats will have to win at least one and probably two of these to hold the House, which I don't think is plausible. They could probably pull out a win in CA-13, but after that, which of these could they reasonably win? I just don't see it happening. This isn't even mentioning the fact that Katie Porter is currently threatened in CA-47, which (if it flips) would make eight districts they have the lead in.

Funny how back in 2016 Republicans were saying "Trump won the popular vote if you exclude California," and now they need us for their majority.

Did you forgot ca01?

NYT has called that already. I'm just counting the outstanding districts.

[Gass3268]

Ouch to Masters

https://twitter.com/garrett_archer/status/1590507551271292928?s=46&t=nSo5c0_...

[Alben Barkley]

LOL the Democrats past 24 hours of orgiasmic celebration could come down to losing the House and Senate and setting up a GOP Trifecta come 2024.

Or D Trifecta. If you really can’t see the difference between a very narrow GOP control of Congress (and I don’t think they will control the Senate) and a “red wave” in terms of making it easier to flip going forward, I don’t know what to say. There is no guarantee an R will win the presidency in 2024, especially now. Very easy to see them losing if they either go for Trump or reject Trump for DeSantis after the two tear each other apart. And if it is a good year for Dems, we should be able to easily win back a few House seats. Although the Senate map isn’t as favorable for us in 2024.

Also, there were great results in individual states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, giving reason to celebrate no matter what happens. Just beating expectations is impressive for Dems this year, let alone managing to actually have blue waves in key rust belt swing states.

[Skill and Chance]

Election day-voting where you drop in a ballot box isn't heavily D or even D at all
election day drop off shouldn't be any skewed.
If these are from early votes - that's heavily skewed to D

depends on where the ballots came from.
if they all came from Vegas, CCM has a chance.

FWIW
Laxalt won election day drop box in Washoe by 10k

This is false. Election day drop box in Washoe has not been tallied - Republicans had a very slight registration lead in the ~18.5K ballots that were dropped off.

Interesting.  Washoe sticks out as being really R compared to 2020 right now, while the surrounding rural counties look in line with or left of 2020.  Sure looks like something very Dem-leaning is missing from the count there.

[It’s so Joever]

Pitkin is fully in, so Boebert has won.

Source?

[Person Man]

Ouch to Masters

https://twitter.com/garrett_archer/status/1590507551271292928?s=46&t=nSo5c0_...

[Skill and Chance]

LOL the Democrats past 24 hours of orgiasmic celebration could come down to losing the House and Senate and setting up a GOP Trifecta come 2024.

Or D Trifecta. If you really can’t see the difference between a very narrow GOP control of Congress (and I don’t think they will control the Senate) and a “red wave” in terms of making it easier to flip going forward, I don’t know what to say. There is no guarantee an R will win the presidency in 2024, especially now. Very easy to see them losing if they either go for Trump or reject Trump for DeSantis after the two tear each other apart. And if it is a good year for Dems, we should be able to easily win back a few House seats. Although the Senate map isn’t as favorable for us in 2024.

Also, there were great results in individual states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, giving reason to celebrate no matter what happens. Just beating expectations is impressive for Dems this year, let alone managing to actually have blue waves in key rust belt swing states.

The Dem overperformance this year could have very important policy implications.  It nearly shuts down the GOP path to 60 Senate seats in 2024.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

By my count, the Republicans will need at least five and probably six districts in California to get their House majority. I believe they have the edge in seven-- 03, 13, 22, 23, 27, 40, and 45. I think the Democrats will have to win at least one and probably two of these to hold the House, which I don't think is plausible. They could probably pull out a win in CA-13, but after that, which of these could they reasonably win? I just don't see it happening. This isn't even mentioning the fact that Katie Porter is currently threatened in CA-47, which (if it flips) would make eight districts they have the lead in.

Funny how back in 2016 Republicans were saying "Trump won the popular vote if you exclude California," and now they need us for their majority.

It's worth bearing how actually it's not good for Rs to do really poorly in CA. If you get blown out in CA, it starts to put the House out of reach in a neutral enough environment.

[wbrocks67]

Pitkin is fully in, so Boebert has won.

Source?

NYT now says >95%, but who knows if that means all. Garfield still has only <90% in though

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ouch to Masters

https://twitter.com/garrett_archer/status/1590507551271292928?s=46&t=nSo5c0_...

Masters finishing 7 points behind Lake is very OUCH. Not interested in calling it atm, but it's not a good sign.

[wbrocks67]

61% now in in Washington and Murray has.... increased her lead from +14.0 to +14.4.

[GeorgiaModerate]

61% now in in Washington and Murray has.... increased her lead from +14.0 to +14.4.

What was the two-party primary split?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

61% now in in Washington and Murray has.... increased her lead from +14.0 to +14.4.

What was the two-party primary split?

Something like 60-40 or 62-38.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590503460730187776

[Ferguson97]

Some napkin math

If there are 145k ballots left, and CCM is 23k votes behind, then she'd need to net 24k ballots for a 1k lead. So she'd need to win ~84,500 votes to Laxalt's ~60,500, or roughly 58% of them.

What % has she been winning those ballots so far?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Barbara Kirkmeyer just tweeted that she conceded the CO-08 race. Dem pickup.

538 said Kirkmeyer had a 91% chance of winning!

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590503460730187776

He’s right, but I’m not sure he’s the right person for that message given his turnout statements earlier in the day.

[ProgressiveModerate]

By my count, the Republicans will need at least five and probably six districts in California to get their House majority. I believe they have the edge in seven-- 03, 13, 22, 23, 27, 40, and 45. I think the Democrats will have to win at least one and probably two of these to hold the House, which I don't think is plausible. They could probably pull out a win in CA-13, but after that, which of these could they reasonably win? I just don't see it happening. This isn't even mentioning the fact that Katie Porter is currently threatened in CA-47, which (if it flips) would make eight districts they have the lead in.

Funny how back in 2016 Republicans were saying "Trump won the popular vote if you exclude California," and now they need us for their majority.

Assuming Dems ultimately lose CO-03, Unless something unexpected happens elsewhere, Dems are going to need to have a pretty clean sweep of WA/OR/CA to have a narrow 218 seat majority. I'm not seeing it, they seem to be outright underdogs in OR-05 with the numbers we currently have, I'm skeptical of WA-03, and that's a pretty clean sweep of the remotely competative Cali seats outside CA-45 and CA-03 which both seem poised to go R (but who knows)

[LimoLiberal]

Good news in The OC

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1590510347819298817