Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[wbrocks67]

Chester County, PA looked dicey for Fetterman at first but now as more VBM comes in, it's Fetterman +15 at 92%. He may ultimately top Biden's +17 or at least match it once the final mail comes in.

No suburban surge for Oz whatsoever.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590503460730187776

He’s right, but I’m not sure he’s the right person for that message given his turnout statements earlier in the day.

DAMN

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1590510347819298817

[Skill and Chance]

Some napkin math

If there are 145k ballots left, and CCM is 23k votes behind, then she'd need to net 24k ballots for a 1k lead. So she'd need to win ~84,500 votes to Laxalt's ~60,500, or roughly 58% of them.

What % has she been winning those ballots so far?

I heard 2:1, but I don't know if that was representative of all the ballot types that are out there or just some of them.  If it's overall, she would pretty clearly win.

Note Washoe is very anomalously R right now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Barbara Kirkmeyer just tweeted that she conceded the CO-08 race. Dem pickup.

Another setback in the GOP quest to get to 218.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Those OC numbers are good. Any updates on CA-45?

I already have CA-47 and CA-49 leaning Dem given what we're seeing nationally.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Barbara Kirkmeyer just tweeted that she conceded the CO-08 race. Dem pickup.

Another setback in the GOP quest to get to 218.

it doesn't matter really - they'll still get to 218 one way or another.

[Gass3268]

Some napkin math

If there are 145k ballots left, and CCM is 23k votes behind, then she'd need to net 24k ballots for a 1k lead. So she'd need to win ~84,500 votes to Laxalt's ~60,500, or roughly 58% of them.

What % has she been winning those ballots so far?

There are still rurals too, but not a ton.

[wbrocks67]

Barbara Kirkmeyer just tweeted that she conceded the CO-08 race. Dem pickup.

Another setback in the GOP quest to get to 218.

Yes! Pundits refused to believe CO-08 could happen. Caraveo FTW!

[Skill and Chance]

Some napkin math

If there are 145k ballots left, and CCM is 23k votes behind, then she'd need to net 24k ballots for a 1k lead. So she'd need to win ~84,500 votes to Laxalt's ~60,500, or roughly 58% of them.

What % has she been winning those ballots so far?

There are still rurals too, but not a ton.

If I understand correctly, rural late mail is almost breakeven.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Barbara Kirkmeyer just tweeted that she conceded the CO-08 race. Dem pickup.

Another setback in the GOP quest to get to 218.

it doesn't matter really - they'll still get to 218 one way or another.

It would be good for my prediction - 221 GOP, 214 Dem - but I don't know about that...
If Boebert does win and the GOP does well enough in CA, then my prediction for both Houses looks almost bang-on correct.

[LimoLiberal]

Mark Kelly just won a batch from Pima County 9K to 4K!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some napkin math

If there are 145k ballots left, and CCM is 23k votes behind, then she'd need to net 24k ballots for a 1k lead. So she'd need to win ~84,500 votes to Laxalt's ~60,500, or roughly 58% of them.

What % has she been winning those ballots so far?

There are still rurals too, but not a ton.

If I understand correctly, rural late mail is almost breakeven.

That is also my understanding of the situation.

[7,052,770]

Does "9NEWS" know what it's talking about? It seems very confident that Boebert loses

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I hope there isn't violence between boebert and frisch supporters tonight.

I wouldn't worry about it.  Nobody lives out in the that part of Colorado anyway except for a bunch of Bighorn Sheep and some ravens. 

[Gass3268]

Good batch for Dems in Pima.

https://twitter.com/garrett_archer/status/1590511868078338048?s=46&t=nSo5c0_...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does "9NEWS" know what it's talking about? It seems very confident that Boebert loses

I assumed it was a local news outlet that knew things well.
I will say my Frisch call seems a bit premature now. But I'll stick with it. Don't want to play chicken. If I'm wrong I'm wrong.

[Person Man]

I hope there isn't violence between boebert and frisch supporters tonight.

I wouldn't worry about it.  Nobody lives out in the that part of Colorado anyway except for a bunch of Bighorn Sheep and some ravens.  

I lived a year in Steamboat. That’s kinda true.

[Bojack Horseman]

NV-SEN feels like watching a football game that ends 12-10 with the winning team kicking four field goals.

[Person Man]

NV-SEN feels like watching a football game that ends 12-10 with the winning team kicking four field goals.

I remember one like that. Ram Bucs in 1999. NFC championship.

[pantsaregood]

NV-SEN feels like watching a football game that ends 12-10 with the winning team kicking four field goals.

Does this mean winning in an incredibly ridiculous way?

[TheReckoning]

CO-03 is within 100 votes now. Outstanding vote seems mostly contained in Garfield County (Frisch +14), Pitkin (Frisch +58), and Otero (Boebert +14). Seems promising for Frisch, but most of the outstanding vote for a while has seemingly been in Democratic counties while the margin has still narrowed and narrowed.

[Pericles]

Barbara Kirkmeyer just tweeted that she conceded the CO-08 race. Dem pickup.

Another setback in the GOP quest to get to 218.

it doesn't matter really - they'll still get to 218 one way or another.

What Kevin McCarthy is painfully discovering is that they actually have to win elections for him to get to be Speaker.

[ProgressiveModerate]

CCM seems like she'll be able to narrowly squeak by but unfortunately Nevada is really slow so we won't know for a while.

For those who argue that Biden was never behind in NV, that's because the mail vote/early vote/e-day vote was counted more evenly across the following days.

[wbrocks67]

Good update for Dems in Pima. They're gonna need to run up the score with the the ~88K left in Pima.