Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Worth noting that in the Clackamas portion of OR-05, Biden won by 15% and McLeod Skinner is only leading by 2%.

You can interpret this 2 ways.

Either McLeod Skinner is severely underperforming and on her way to lose big time or the remaining votes in Clackamas will be extremely favorable to her and net her enough to cancel out her 7k deficit.

For reference, Biden won the rest of the district excluding Clackamas by just 4%.

CNN has her down 7,000 votes with 79%

NYT only has her at 73%, but these numbers can be unreliable. I still think Chavez-DeRemer is narrowly favored.

[Seattle]

WA-3 update: Clark and Lewis counties dumped some new votes. Perez still leads Kent 52.38-47.03 (11.5k votes). This is starting to look like Perez could actually pull this off.

Estimated votes left:
Clark: 70k (updated)
Lewis: 6k (updated)
Cowlitz: 6.3k (updating at 6 PM Pacific)
Thurston: unsure, maybe 4-5k? (updating 6 PM Pacific)
Pacific: IDK, but <2k probably (next updated is not until 11/14)
Skamania: 600 (updated)
Wahkiakum: 300 now, ~450 (next updated 11/10)

Perez's margin did slip in Clark from ~58.5 to 57.8, but her raw margin increased by about 1,000.

[It’s so Joever]

CO-08 is a heavily latino and WWC district that barely voted for Biden. Kirkmeyer losing doesn’t make it a bad target, especially come 2024.

[DaleCooper]

This is really starting to feel like a repeat of the 2018 Senate race, where it took six days to complete the count and call the election for Sinema.

Except Sinema was behind for a while.

Which is why it depends if this year is more like 2018 (Dems gain in the rest of the vote) or like 2020 (Dems drop in the rest of the vote)

The exits gamed out to about Kelly +5 and Hobbs +0.5, so I would think that maybe we're in for a possible status quo remaining # of ballots, but we'll see.

Could be. It would be odd for the exits to be extremely off in favor of Arizona Rs this year. It really all comes down to this Maricopa thing. If it includes those early votes that were supposedly dead even, if not favoring Democrats once the independents are factored in, then it's possible Kelly's lead will barely change at all, while the % reporting increases enough to severely hurt Masters chances. Kind of like what CCM has to worry about in Nevada.

[TheReckoning]

Why was co 08 seen as a solid gop pick up prior to tonight?

Because media loves to fearmonger, and “Republicans will crush the midterms and then make America fascist” is a good selling story.

[xavier110]

Does anyone have any idea why AZ takes so long to count their votes once they hit about 2/3rd counted? I remember it was in a state of limbo for days even after the 2016 election.

It’s because ballots are due on Election Day.

The counties can process and count Mail ballots on the fly as they arrive. So on Election Night, they can dump those votes one hour after polls close.

They can also speed through EDay poll votes.

What messes everything up are late mail ballots. Either they arrive to county on Mon/Tuesday or are dropped off at a polling place (vs voting there).

These ballots must be processed, go through signature verification, etc.

[AZdude]

As much as everyone loves ridiculing AZ, the reason for the delay is not surprising.  All absentee ballots have to be signature-checked before they can be counted.  So all these dumb clucks who insist on dropping off their ballots on e-day or waiting until the last minute to mail them in can take a bow for this.

I asked a long time ago (okay it was yesterday) how Florida counted so fast, and what I really meant to ask was how they deal with stuff like this.  What are the rules regarding mail-in ballots in Florida?  I think early in-person voting is a lot bigger there than here, but there has to be SOME explanation.

And hey, at least we're not California.  That is utterly beyond belief.

[Atlas Force]

BURN

https://twitter.com/schlagteslinks/status/1590516268490452992

[Holmes]

This Maricopa dump better be the whole VBM from Fri-Mon (the ~125k)

You will get 15k votes and you will like it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This Maricopa dump better be the whole VBM from Fri-Mon (the ~125k)

You will get 15k votes and you will like it.

Atlas: Hey I want a huge Maricopa vote dump!
Maricopa County: we have a huge Maricopa vote dump at home.
Huge Maricopa vote dump at home:

[Ferguson97]

BTW, if Dems win both the Nevada and Arizona governor's races... there will be an equal number of Dem and GOP Governors. 25-25.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Oh so apparently the reason NY-22 isn't called is because there's 8k mail votes out of Onondaga. I still think Williams is favored but an important note.

[wbrocks67]

CNN says AZ exits were revised today but still comes out to about the same as yesterday

Kelly +5.7 (51.2-45.5)
Hobbs +0.3 (49.4-49.1)

Hobbs has no room for error

Luckily, the delta right now between them in the results is only 4.4, instead of the 5.4 indicated by the exits.

[7,052,770]

Here are the JHK live probabilities of all the remaining uncalled seats. Republicans need 11 of these and are above 50% in 13, with 2 at 50-50.



However, CO-8 is apparently going D, so scratch that one, and maybe scratch Boebert too.

[soundchaser]

BTW, if Dems win both the Nevada and Arizona governor's races... there will be an equal number of Dem and GOP Governors. 25-25.

It's a beautiful map, too - a lovely line snaking from Washington through Kansas.

[wbrocks67]

Oh so apparently the reason NY-22 isn't called is because there's 8k mail votes out of Onondaga. I still think Williams is favored but an important note.

Interesting. I guess there's VBM out in NY-18 as well. Odd that there was no VBM out in NY-17 or NY-19 though?

[TheReckoning]

Democrats need to pull off at least one upset in the House, on top of sweeping all competitive districts, if they want to win the House. Not gonna happen. Say hello to Speaker McCarthy!

[7,052,770]

JHK is confident in Nevada and Oregon for Dems, not so much in Arizona house races.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BTW, if Dems win both the Nevada and Arizona governor's races... there will be an equal number of Dem and GOP Governors. 25-25.

It's a beautiful map, too - a lovely line snaking from Washington through Kansas.

The Blue belt, running from coast to coast. You love to see it!

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Is Schweikert going to lose?

[LimoLiberal]

It's starting...

https://twitter.com/AdamLaxalt/status/1590513486677037056

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Here are the JHK live probabilities of all the remaining uncalled seats. Republicans need 11 of these and are above 50% in 13, with 2 at 50-50.



However, CO-8 is apparently going D, so scratch that one, and maybe scratch Boebert too.

Scratch NM-02 as well. And probably NY-22 at this point.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Oh so apparently the reason NY-22 isn't called is because there's 8k mail votes out of Onondaga. I still think Williams is favored but an important note.

Interesting. I guess there's VBM out in NY-18 as well. Odd that there was no VBM out in NY-17 or NY-19 though?

Yeah that's exactly why I'm confused. It seems like you can either call all of them or you can't, but this seems specific to Onondaga County

[soundchaser]

It's starting...

https://twitter.com/AdamLaxalt/status/1590513486677037056

Wow, what an awfully specific percentage. (And one that CCM has been outrunning in mail vote so far.)

[Alben Barkley]

62k dropped in Maricopa, boosted Kelly and Hobbs’s lead!