Marquette: Johnson +6

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1580257569188171776?cxt=HHwWgMCqkd_4me4rAAAA

LV: Johnson 52-46
RV: Tied 47-47

[windjammer]

Wooooooow
6 points difference ?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Disappointment state.

[Gass3268]

Wooooooow
6 points difference ?

Odd given voter certainty is almost the same.

https://twitter.com/mulawpoll/status/1580258898984173570?s=46&t=2ea6TtzQlGJN...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Ron Jon literal electoral titan.

[Devils30]

Mandela is a crappy candidate, no doubt Johnson is 75% likely to win. That said, there is no chance WI has a R+6 likely to registered voter gap after what we saw in these special elections, the fact midterms have a more educated electorate. In a state as white as Wisconsin, this should arguably help Dems the most.

[UncleSam]

Dw everyone this was definitely toss-up / tilt D all summer there was no possible way to know this was coming

[MT Treasurer]

Not to toot my own horn, but there were people who saw this coming.

52.7% Johnson (R, inc.)
47.3% Barnes (D)

(no third-party candidates on the ballot)

Feel free to mock this if I’m wrong, but assuming there’s a turnout surge in November which wasn’t captured by those special elections, this race probably won’t be particularly close. Barnes would an unusual (for a midterm under a Democratic trifecta) turnout gap to win, and I don’t think he’ll get it.

[UncleSam]

Mandela is a crappy candidate, no doubt Johnson is 75% likely to win. That said, there is no chance WI has a R+6 likely to registered voter gap after what we saw in these special elections, the fact midterms have a more educated electorate. In a state as white as Wisconsin, this should arguably help Dems the most.

Lol let the ‘Barnes is a bad candidate’ takes begin

Nobody was likely to flip this seat given this environment. The only hope was (and still is) that things get better for Dems by Election Day. If they do, Barnes could win. If they don’t, nobody would’ve.

[Devils30]

Dems should consider loading up $$$ in North Carolina instead of here. The final margin won't be 6 but Barnes is probably not winning this thing either.

[SaneDemocrat]

Barnes sucks

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not to toot my own horn, but there were people who saw this coming.

52.7% Johnson (R, inc.)
47.3% Barnes (D)

(no third-party candidates on the ballot)

Feel free to mock this if I’m wrong, but assuming there’s a turnout surge in November which wasn’t captured by those special elections, this race probably won’t be particularly close. Barnes would an unusual (for a midterm under a Democratic trifecta) turnout gap to win, and I don’t think he’ll get it.

Lol you do realize we already have the majority without WI if we flip PA because CCM and Warnock and Kelly are leading right

[Person Man]

There's definitely a difference in social skills between the candidates. That's for sure!

[UncleSam]

Dems should consider loading up $$$ in North Carolina instead of here. The final margin won't be 6 but Barnes is probably not winning this thing either.

Dems should spend in both places but I still think WI is more likely to end up D than WI. NC may be closer because it is a less flexible state though.

PA is really where Dems should ‘load up’ if anywhere. Personally I think that Dems are about saturated in terms of ad dollars in all the important places anyway so I don’t think there’s much strategy behind spending at this point, just need to hope things get better in the last few weeks.

[Devils30]

Between this, seats like OR-5, OR-6, you gotta give a lot of blame to Warren's network of sh**tty candidates she endorses early.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There's definitely a difference in social skills between the candidates. That's for sure!

You really take Pre Election polls not Exit polls seriously

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Between this, seats like OR-5, OR-6, you gotta give a lot of blame to Warren's network of sh**tty candidates she endorses early.

Lol this is a Pre Election polls not an Exit poll Rs are the ones underpoll with Biden Approvals in 2010 they would have 54 R Sen and 245 RH we are the underdogs

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats aren’t winning an open seat in NC with two generic candidates on a night when they’re losing WI by 6, please get out of your bubble.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats aren’t winning an open seat in NC with two generic candidates on a night when they’re losing WI by 6, please get out of your bubble.

Lol this is not an exit poll this is a Pre Election polls , Molinaro was Plus 8 in a Pre Election polls and Ryan won by 3 that was an Exit poll

[GALeftist]

I will say that the delta between this race and North Carolina is pretty bizarre. I think both are Lean R but we haven't seen Budd even approach this type of lead, which is weird, because I'd have given him the candidate quality edge over Johnson. You wouldn't expect WI to be more R biased than NC in the polls, would you? Return of elasticity™? _{obvious joke}

[Gass3268]

Funny that Barnes still has better favorables and does better on the values question.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1580258898984173570
https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1580259022078300161
https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1580259131717320704

[Minnesota Mike]

One hell of a likely voter screen, race is tied among RV's.

I have said it before so this is not just unskewing a poll to fit my liking but I think RV polls give a better view of the state of the race. A bad LV screen makes for a bad poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One hell of a likely voter screen, race is tied among RV's.

I have said it before so this is not just unskewing a poll to fit my liking but I think RV polls give a better view of the state of the race. A bad LV screen makes for a bad poll.

MT Treasurer is making it seem that Ds can't win a race in WI because he along with Old School are Paul Ryan fans and Rs owned Ds in the Walker, Johnson and Paul Ryan but guess what Walker and Paul Ryan and Kleefisch isn't on the ballot Michels is

Again, these aren't exit polls these are pre Election polls, that's why it's called 303 map with wave insurance

[HidingCommentary]

That's some LV screen.